Confidence Pool - Week 12
by FBG Staff
November 22nd, 2012

This season, we are proud to bring you the return of the Footballguys.com Staff Confidence Pool Challenge. Nineteen staff members will pick the winner of each NFL game, and rank each choice from most confident (16 points) to least (1 point). As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Confidence pool Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices. Also please note that no point spread is taken into account with these picks it is a straight up pick of which NFL team will win this week.

Last Week's Results

Russell took home the top spot this week, narrowly beating out Grant and Yudkin by 1 point. Russell, Yudkin, and Gray all had just one miss this week, but Russell was the one who risked the least amount of points so he took home the prize for this week.

Staffer
MIA
GB
CLE
ARI
NYJ
JAX
PHI
CIN
TB
NO
SD
IND
BAL
CHI
TOT
BUF
DET
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
KC
CAR
OAK
DEN
NE
PIT
SF
PTS
Russell
BUF
GB
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
CIN
TB
NO
DEN
NE
BAL
SF
102
1
9
8
11
3
14
4
13
5
10
12
7
6
2
Grant
MIA
GB
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
CIN
TB
NO
DEN
NE
BAL
SF
101
3
8
6
13
1
14
5
7
4
10
11
12
9
2
Yudkin
BUF
GB
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
CIN
TB
NO
DEN
NE
BAL
SF
101
2
8
9
12
4
14
3
10
5
11
13
7
1
6
Gray
BUF
GB
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
CIN
TB
NO
DEN
NE
BAL
SF
100
1
9
13
12
5
14
7
2
3
8
11
10
6
4
Levin
BUF
GB
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
CIN
CAR
NO
DEN
NE
BAL
SF
99
1
6
11
13
4
14
7
5
2
8
9
12
3
10
Hicks
BUF
GB
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
CIN
CAR
NO
DEN
NE
BAL
SF
99
2
4
3
13
5
14
7
8
1
9
12
11
10
6
Pasquino
BUF
GB
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
PHI
CIN
TB
NO
DEN
IND
BAL
SF
98
8
5
7
13
4
14
1
9
10
12
11
2
3
6
Bitonti
BUF
GB
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
CIN
CAR
NO
DEN
NE
BAL
SF
98
3
9
11
13
6
14
4
5
1
7
12
10
8
2
Holloway
MIA
GB
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
CIN
TB
NO
DEN
NE
BAL
CHI
98
1
8
12
13
4
14
7
6
3
9
11
10
5
2
Rudnicki
BUF
GB
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
CIN
TB
NO
DEN
NE
BAL
SF
98
8
3
12
13
7
14
10
5
4
2
9
11
6
1
Garda
BUF
GB
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
CIN
TB
NO
DEN
NE
BAL
CHI
97
9
11
12
14
7
13
6
5
8
10
4
3
2
1
Hester
MIA
GB
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
CIN
CAR
NO
DEN
NE
BAL
SF
97
1
9
11
12
5
14
8
7
2
6
10
13
4
3
Haseley
MIA
GB
CLE
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
CIN
TB
NO
DEN
NE
BAL
SF
96
2
7
3
10
4
14
1
8
9
11
13
12
5
6
Cummings
BUF
DET
DAL
ATL
NYJ
HOU
PHI
KC
TB
NO
DEN
IND
BAL
SF
94
6
5
9
13
4
14
3
2
8
12
7
1
11
10
Wimer
BUF
GB
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
CIN
TB
NO
DEN
NE
PIT
SF
88
4
12
8
13
7
14
6
5
3
2
9
11
10
1
Larkin
MIA
GB
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
KC
TB
NO
DEN
NE
BAL
SF
88
1
10
8
11
13
14
6
3
5
9
12
2
4
7
Wood
MIA
GB
DAL
ATL
NYJ
HOU
PHI
CIN
CAR
NO
DEN
NE
BAL
SF
88
9
10
12
13
2
14
7
8
1
6
11
5
3
4
Smith
BUF
GB
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
PHI
CIN
CAR
NO
DEN
NE
PIT
SF
87
4
9
10
14
8
13
5
6
3
7
11
12
2
1
Tremblay
MIA
DET
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
CIN
CAR
OAK
DEN
NE
PIT
SF
77
1
3
9
10
11
14
5
6
2
4
13
8
7
12
Away
MIA
GB
CLE
ARI
NYJ
JAX
PHI
CIN
TB
NO
SD
IND
BAL
CHI
n/a
Tot Pts
18
137
3
0
6
0
16
115
67
149
0
3
86
3
Home
BUF
DET
DAL
ATL
STL
HOU
WAS
KC
CAR
OAK
DEN
NE
PIT
SF
n/a
Tot Pts
49
8
171
236
98
264
86
5
12
4
201
156
19
83

Tremblay made some bold moves this week and paid the price, finishing 10 points behind the next lowest score. Smith continues his slide from the top spot after weeks at #1 overall.

Overall Results

While weekly winners definitely get rewarded, it is the overall points winner that will take home the crown. Here's how the guys stack up against each other after the first week:

Staffer
W01
W02
W03
W04
W05
W06
W07
W08
W09
W10
W11
Total
Levin
105
85
57
102
90
40
79
78
88
79
99
902
Grant
98
87
58
102
88
44
87
77
85
67
101
894
Hester
77
108
59
96
91
52
80
75
84
62
97
881
Russell
104
71
52
100
84
46
71
81
87
78
102
876
Gray
106
82
59
95
84
49
71
65
95
69
100
875
Smith
94
113
44
90
90
62
85
75
69
65
87
874
Yudkin
94
80
50
119
81
35
88
63
93
67
101
871
Haseley
95
88
39
85
85
50
88
73
90
80
96
869
Rudnicki
78
83
55
107
81
32
81
73
94
81
98
863
Hicks
98
95
55
102
79
51
76
56
78
74
99
863
Holloway
91
95
48
79
83
40
83
77
88
69
98
851
Garda
87
50
62
103
80
46
78
69
88
83
97
843
Bitonti
91
79
44
87
84
63
84
67
75
70
98
842
Pasquino
81
86
62
99
78
41
86
75
71
63
98
840
Larkin
76
77
52
96
89
47
87
70
76
70
88
828
Cummings
90
63
47
96
82
67
87
67
70
60
94
823
Tremblay
88
108
49
89
72
41
59
63
78
73
77
797
Wimer
79
60
44
70
89
57
61
78
91
69
88
786
Wood
84
73
34
94
80
41
81
71
74
61
88
781

Levin lost a little ground, but not as much as he would have if Chicago had won the Monday night game. Russell and Gray took advantage of a weak performance by Smith to move ahead of him in the race for the top. Wimer and Wood gained 11 points on Tremblay this week, but are still fighting to get out of the basement.

This Week's Picks

Here are the picks for this week.

Staffer
HOU
WAS
NE
OAK
ATL
PIT
TEN
SEA
BUF
MIN
DEN
BAL
STL
SF
GB
CAR
MNF
DET
DAL
NYJ
CIN
TB
CLE
JAX
MIA
IND
CHI
KC
SD
ARI
NO
NYG
PHI
PTS
Grant
HOU
DAL
NE
CIN
ATL
PIT
TEN
SEA
IND
CHI
DEN
BAL
ARI
NO
GB
CAR
40
15
8
13
14
11
4
9
12
5
3
16
10
7
2
6
1
Rudnicki
HOU
DAL
NE
CIN
ATL
CLE
TEN
SEA
IND
CHI
DEN
SD
ARI
NO
NYG
CAR
40
15
9
14
13
11
3
6
7
12
10
16
4
8
1
2
5
Garda
HOU
WAS
NE
CIN
ATL
PIT
TEN
SEA
IND
MIN
DEN
BAL
STL
SF
GB
PHI
28
14
4
13
11
7
9
5
10
3
16
15
12
2
8
6
1
Hicks
HOU
DAL
NE
CIN
TB
CLE
JAX
SEA
IND
CHI
DEN
SD
STL
SF
NYG
CAR
48
13
12
11
14
1
2
6
15
10
9
16
3
8
4
5
7
Smith
HOU
DAL
NE
CIN
TB
CLE
JAX
MIA
IND
CHI
DEN
BAL
ARI
NO
GB
PHI
42
14
13
16
15
7
8
1
2
11
10
12
9
3
4
6
5
Gray
HOU
WAS
NE
CIN
ATL
PIT
JAX
SEA
IND
CHI
DEN
BAL
ARI
SF
NYG
PHI
54
12
1
15
14
9
7
2
11
13
8
16
10
5
6
3
4
Yudkin
HOU
DAL
NE
CIN
TB
PIT
TEN
MIA
IND
MIN
DEN
BAL
ARI
NO
NYG
PHI
42
14
10
13
15
5
12
7
6
8
4
16
11
9
3
2
1
Larkin
HOU
DAL
NE
CIN
TB
PIT
TEN
SEA
IND
CHI
DEN
BAL
STL
SF
GB
CAR
44
10
8
16
13
6
9
5
11
12
7
15
4
14
1
3
2
Russell
DET
DAL
NE
CIN
ATL
CLE
TEN
SEA
BUF
MIN
DEN
BAL
STL
NO
GB
CAR
35
1
12
15
14
2
3
9
11
5
10
16
13
4
6
7
8
Cummings
DET
DAL
NE
CIN
ATL
CLE
TEN
SEA
IND
MIN
DEN
BAL
STL
SF
NYG
PHI
45
7
12
15
14
11
9
6
13
4
10
16
3
2
8
5
1
Wood
HOU
WAS
NE
CIN
ATL
PIT
TEN
SEA
IND
CHI
DEN
BAL
STL
SF
NYG
CAR
65
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Haseley
HOU
WAS
NE
CIN
TB
PIT
TEN
SEA
IND
CHI
DEN
BAL
STL
NO
NYG
CAR
44
11
2
10
15
9
13
5
8
14
12
16
1
7
6
3
4
Pasquino
HOU
WAS
NE
OAK
ATL
PIT
JAX
SEA
IND
CHI
DEN
BAL
STL
SF
GB
CAR
40
6
5
14
15
10
13
11
9
12
3
16
8
4
1
2
7
Levin
HOU
DAL
NE
CIN
ATL
CLE
TEN
MIA
IND
CHI
DEN
BAL
ARI
SF
GB
PHI
41
14
10
16
13
9
2
12
1
6
7
15
8
4
11
5
3
Wimer
HOU
DAL
NE
CIN
ATL
CLE
TEN
SEA
IND
CHI
DEN
BAL
STL
SF
GB
CAR
30
15
9
12
10
8
3
7
14
11
6
16
13
5
4
2
1
Bitonti
HOU
WAS
NE
CIN
ATL
CLE
TEN
SEA
IND
CHI
DEN
BAL
ARI
NO
NYG
CAR
45
12
2
1
16
4
5
11
10
15
7
14
8
9
6
13
3
Tremblay
HOU
WAS
NE
CIN
TB
PIT
TEN
SEA
IND
MIN
DEN
SD
STL
SF
NYG
CAR
43
7
6
5
14
13
12
8
10
2
4
16
3
9
15
1
11
Hester
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Holloway
HOU
DAL
NE
CIN
TB
CLE
JAX
MIA
IND
CHI
DEN
BAL
ARI
NO
NYG
CAR
46
11
12
14
16
6
3
2
1
10
8
15
9
4
13
5
7
Away
HOU
WAS
NE
OAK
ATL
PIT
TEN
SEA
BUF
MIN
DEN
BAL
STL
SF
GB
CAR
n/a
Tot Pts
199
35
227
15
94
90
100
150
5
44
268
124
59
61
37
57
Home
DET
DAL
NYJ
CIN
TB
CLE
JAX
MIA
IND
CHI
KC
SD
ARI
NO
NYG
PHI
n/a
Tot Pts
8
115
0
234
47
38
22
10
156
97
0
10
49
41
41
15

Heavy Favorites

This week was especially tough from a matchup prospective, and the total points definitely reflected it. Only Denver and New England were true consensus' choices, and both gained a lot of support. Pasquino took a big gamble on Oakland, but aside from him, the rest of the leaderboard favored Cincinnati by a large margin. Houston is also a heavy favorite this week, and while Indianapolis didn't draw nearly as much support, only Russell picked Buffalo to win that game.

Dual Support

Despite having the best record in the NFC, the field didn't put a lot of faith in Atlanta to beat Tampa Bay, and the Buccaneers received almost 50 points in support as well. Chicago's embarrassing performance on Monday night gave people pause and Minnesota also had their share of support to push the Bears to three consecutive losses. The final four games of the week were the closest though, and it should be an interesting finish on Monday night with Carolina and Philadelphia.

Odds and Ends

A full 136 points this week and from now until the end.

Hester missed the early cutoff this week, but his scores will be added to the final totals.

Good luck this weekend!

Commentary

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below. Here are the comments that were submitted with this week's picks:

From Grant

Without a doubt, this was one of the toughest weeks of the season. Eight games with less than three point spread? This week could really go either way in most of the games, especially the Turkey Day Match-ups.

Chicago over Minnesota Be careful with this one division matchups are always tough and the Bears took it on the chin in prime time last week. Lovie Smith usually has the Bears ready after a big loss, but this week feels different and the Chicago offensive line is really becoming their biggest weakness. Jared Allen is a must start in any IDP league.

Tennessee over Jacksonville I'm surprised at how many road teams I took this week, including Tennessee but it's hard to get excited about the Jaguars for anything. Chad Henne isn't going to be the answer there either.

From Russell

With a number of similar quality teams playing each other, and key injuries that may impact games, this felt like one of the most difficult weeks of the year to date to make picks for.

Houston at Detroit - On any other week this year and I'd have gone with Houston. But playing on a Thursday on the road, it will be difficult for the Texans to overcome in such a short time the emotional and physical drain of their overtime win that took nearly the full overtime period. Throw in corner Jonathan Joseph's injury that will hamper him if he even plays against Calvin Johnson, and this has the makings of an upset. Though I'm going with a very low confidence rating on it.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay - I really want to take Tampa Bay in this matchup, with the Buccaneers at home and Atlanta having felt like there were too many games this season they should have lost. But Tampa Bay's pass defense is the worst in the league, and I believe Matt Ryan's five interception performance will give him some extra focus going into Tampa Bay. I'm sticking with Atlanta, but giving this game a low confidence as I think there is still upset potential here.

Good luck this weekend!

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