Fantasy Football Bookmaker #2
By Jeff Tefertiller
August 1st, 2010

Value is a tough thing for most fantasy footballers to quantify. How do I compare two players at the same position in different parts of fantasy drafts? This article will serve to package the concept of value in a new way. The money line odds below are a function of the players' respective ADPs (Average Draft Position) compared to their expected finish for the 2010 season. So, which player has the better chance of finishing higher the end of the season? Does it change if the odds are weighted?

The money line represents a percent chance of winning. It is basically the odds to win expressed in terms of money. For the purpose of this article, "winning" is having the better fantasy season. With money odds, whenever there is a minus (-) you put up that amount to win a hundred dollars, where there is a plus (+) you get that amount for every hundred dollars wagered. Obviously there is no wagering involved in this article, but just another way to represent the differing values for players.

So, for the players below, we will be comparing the their values. The money line is an imaginary line based off the ADPs for both players. We are not advocating gambling, but if you were to wager an imaginary $100 on which player you think will have the better season - given the odds - which player would you "bet" on?

Brett Favre (+175) vs Tom Brady - What a matchup. Favre is being drafted as though he is playing this season even though there is risk he will remain retired. Favre enjoyed a great season to finish as QB3, ahead of Brady and most all other passers. Can he do it again? Fantasy owners only give the graybeard a 36.4% chance given the respective current ADPs. Favre is selected as QB8 with pick 5.11 while the Patriot passer is the fourth quarterback off the board at pick 3.03. The assumption is that Favre plays this season. If he does, he has a great chance to best those odds ... at a great price.

Jay Cutler (+250) vs Drew Brees - Can Cutler rebound after disappointing last season? This is a big question fantasy owners want to know. He gets the benefit of Mike Martz as the Chicago offensive coordinator. Is that, and Cutler's big arm, enough to top Brees? There is only a 28.6% chance the Bear passer can outperform the prolific Saint quarterback. The odds are long for a reason. New Orleans has a very productive offense with great weapons while there are many question marks in Chicago. The question becomes one of value, just like the money line. Is Brees worth drafting as the second quarterback off the board with the 1.09 pick? Cutler is selected much later as QB9 with pick 6.04.

Donovan McNabb (+200) vs Kevin Kolb - A battle between the current and former Philadelphia starting quarterbacks. There are plenty of unanswered questions for both passers. How well will Kolb replace McNabb? Can McNabb produce good numbers in Washington with lesser weapons than he had in Philadelphia? Kolb is getting plenty of attention in the media. This is transferring over to the fantasy world. He is being drafted as a fantasy starter, picked as QB11 with the last pick in the sixth round. McNabb is selected with the first pick in the eighth round as QB14. The odds are 2-to-1 in favor of Kolb to outperform his predecessor. McNabb has a history of missing a game or two and is now throwing to lesser receivers while Kolb steps into a great situation.

Matt Leinart (+150) vs Vince Young - How far have both of these players fallen over the past couple of years? Neither make their fantasy owners comfortable about the future. Leinart is the favorite to start the season in the high-powered Arizona Cardinal offense. Young will be orchestrating the conservative Titan attack, led by Chris Johnson. Young has a 60% shot at outscoring the lefty in the desert. With an ADP of QB20, Young may offer value if he can regain the momentum of last season. How well will Leinart (ADP of QB23) replace Kurt Warner? This is the million dollar decision for fantasy owners. Both are late round players who could have upside, but loads of risk. This is a tough matchup.

Jonathan Stewart (+150) vs DeAngelo Williams - There is always discussion about the Panther backfield among fantasy owners. They see the vast potential in Stewart and weigh it against the productivity of Williams. Both ball carriers have experienced their respective share of nicks and bruises. Williams is a first round pick in recent drafts (1.12 ADP) as the eighth back off the board. His backfield mate is ranked as RB17, selected with the 3.09 pick. The odds give Stewart a 40% chance to best his teammate. This is a close one, but will go with the favored Williams. He is only one year removed from the monster 2008 season.

Ryan Grant (+175) vs Steven Jackson - Grant is a consistent performer who is anything but a sexy pick. He should get the majority of the Packer carries again this year. Jackson had a huge season in 2009, but lacked touchdowns. It was good to see the Ram ball carrier avoid the injury bug. Jackson (1.10) is selected a full round ahead of Grant (2.10). Both have the chance for a big season in 2010. Jackson has a 63.6% of getting the better of the Green Bay running back. But, his injury history may make Grant the better option given the odds.

Marion Barber (+250) vs Cedric Benson - Barber is very undervalued, taken as RB26 in the first part of the sixth round. This is a back who played through a quadriceps injury last season and still finished as RB21. But, the two previous seasons, Barber was a strong fantasy player. The odds only give him a 28.6% chance at putting up better numbers than the Bengals' running back. Benson is drafted as RB14 with the second pick in the third round. While Benson offers value in the third round, Barber has a good chance to best the former Chicago Bear.

Joseph Addai (+150) vs Knowshon Moreno - Joseph Addai has been a Top 11 fantasy back three of his four professional seasons. He even outplayed Knowshon Moreno last year. But, Moreno is drafted quite a bit ahead of the Indianapolis ball carrier. The odds are only 40% that Addai can best Moreno. Addai is a steal when drafted as RB20 with the 4.06 pick. Moreno is selected as RB13 with the first pick in the third round. Addai is a proven performer in a great situation.

Terrell Owens (+175) vs Chad Ochocinco - The recent signing of Terrell Owens should give the Cincinnati Bengals offense a spark. He is a huge upgrade over the oft-injured Antonio Bryant, who was given way too much money this offseason. Ochocinco is a value for fantasy owners as WR16 with the 3.09 pick. Owens' ADP is difficult to gauge since it will now soar with the signing in a passing offense. Who will be the top performing Cincinnati wide receiver? The odds give Owens only a 36.4% chance of being besting Ochocinco. Both are proven veterans and the signing will allow quarterback Carson Palmer to have viable options in the passing game.

Mike Wallace (+125) vs Hines Ward - This is the battle of the Steelers wide receivers with Santonio Holmes traded to the New York Jets. Hines Ward and Mike Wallace are the only two viable wideouts remaining for the Pittsburgh passing game. Will the aging veteran be able to hold off the speedy youngster again in 2010? The odds give him a 55.6% chance of doing so. Ward has an ADP of WR22 with the first pick in the sixth round while his teammate is drafted as the WR27 with the 7.07 pick. Wallace could take off with the increased role as the starter opposite Ward.

Percy Harvin (+175) vs Sidney Rice - Rice emerged last season with Brett Favre under center. He is slow returning from injury while Harvin is looking to take another step in his development in year two. The Vikings are fortunate to have a pair of good young receivers. Harvin only has a 36.4% shot to put up better numbers than the higher-ranked Rice. Harvin has an ADP of WR21 with the 5.09 pick. Rice is drafted much higher as WR12 with the 3.11 pick. Harvin is the much better value, especially with the Rice injury.

Santonio Holmes (pick 'em) vs Braylon Edwards - The battle of the Jet receivers. Even though Holmes will miss the first four games of the year due to suspension, he and Edwards have the same ADP. So, will the ex-Steeler star outperform the underwhelming ex-Brown? Even with four fewer games, Holmes is the better play. Edwards should not be on the fantasy radar. He is not a player you can insert into your fantasy lineup with confidence.

Chris Chambers (+275) vs Dwayne Bowe - Bowe is drafted much higher than Chambers, even though the new Chief receiver wildly outplayed him over the last half of the 2009 season. It is interesting how much higher Bowe is drafted over the very proven Chambers. Bowe is selected as a fantasy WR2 (WR23) in the early part of the sixth round. This is a very good pick to be used on a receiver who stays in coach Haley's doghouse. Even with the strong numbers after joining Kansas City, Chambers is drafted as WR52 in the thirteenth round. Bowe is a whopping 73.3% favorite based on the respective ADPs. Chambers is the easy call in this one. He has a great chance to outplay his teammate.

Tony Gonzalez (+175) vs Vernon Davis - Davis finished as the top performing tight end last year. Can he do it again and outperform the future Hall of Famer? Gonzalez has been productive well into his thirties. The wily veteran only has a 36.4% to best his younger counterpart. Gonzalez is drafted as the TE7 with a pick in the middle of the sixth round while Davis is the TE3 with a late fourth round selection.

What players do you want to see matched up in coming installments? Please feel free to email me at tefertiller@footballguys.com with any questions or comments. Also, I am on Twitter, so feel free to ask me questions there.

© 2010 Footballguys - All Rights Reserved