Player Points - Brett Favre
By Chase Stuart
July 15th, 2010

There are more things to say about the ageless Brett Favre than there are sportswriters in America. You might think there's nothing one could write about Favre that hasn't been uttered before. I was thinking that, too, at least until I checked out Favre's home/road splits. In 2009, he averaged an incredible 27.1 FP/G at home, compared to a more pedestrian 18.2 FP/G on the road. Seven of Favre's nine best fantasy games came in front of his home crowd, and an eighth occurred at familiar Lambeau Field. The table below shows the home/road splits for each of last year's top 15 fantasy QBs:

Quarterback
Team
Year
FPs
FP/G
HomeFP/G
RoadFP/G
Diff
Brett Favre
MIN
2009
361.8
22.6
27.1
18.1
9.1
Tom Brady
NWE
2009
344.3
21.5
26.0
17.0
9.0
David Garrard
JAX
2009
285.2
17.8
21.2
14.5
6.7
Jay Cutler
CHI
2009
289.6
18.1
20.6
15.6
5.0
Donovan McNabb
PHI
2009
293.7
21.0
23.7
18.9
4.8
Drew Brees
NOR
2009
382.7
25.5
27.3
23.4
3.9
Eli Manning
NYG
2009
314.6
19.7
21.3
18.0
3.4
Kurt Warner
ARI
2009
290.7
19.4
19.4
19.4
0.0
Philip Rivers
SDG
2009
345.7
21.6
21.1
22.1
-1.1
Tony Romo
DAL
2009
352.7
22.0
21.4
22.7
-1.3
Ben Roethlisberger
PIT
2009
342.6
22.8
22.2
23.6
-1.3
Matt Schaub
HOU
2009
359.2
22.5
21.1
23.8
-2.7
Peyton Manning
IND
2009
356.7
22.3
20.6
24.0
-3.4
Jason Campbell
WAS
2009
280.5
17.5
15.8
19.3
-3.5
Aaron Rodgers
GNB
2009
419.3
26.2
24.2
28.2
-3.9

Favre was just a hair behind Drew Brees for the highest home fantasy points per game average, but ranked 11th among the 15 quarterbacks in road production. If Favre's home/road split is going to continue, that's valuable fantasy knowledge. If Favre is incredible at home and average on the road, you can choose to only play Favre at home (and maybe against weak pass defenses) and then play a different quarterback in your lineup when the Vikings are on the road. Of course, sometimes splits just happen; in that case, Favre's home/road split last year will be meaningless when predicting his home/road split this year.

I looked at all quarterbacks since 1988 who finished in the top 15, averaged at least 23 FP/G at home, and averaged at least 7+ more FP/G at home than on the road. Before Favre (and Tom Brady) in 2009, there were 16 quarterbacks who met those criteria and played in at least 12 games for the same team in the next season. The results, below:

Quarterback
Team
Year
FP/G
HmFP/G
RdFP/G
Diff
N+1 HmFP/G
N+1 RdFP/G
N+1 Diff
Donovan McNabb
PHI
2008
19.7
23.3
16.2
7.1
23.7
18.9
4.8
Drew Brees
NOR
2008
24.3
29.4
19.3
10.1
27.3
23.4
3.9
Tony Romo
DAL
2008
21.4
26.2
15.8
10.4
21.4
22.7
-1.3
Marc Bulger
STL
2006
20.2
25.2
15.2
10.0
15.0
9.3
5.7
Brad Johnson
TAM
2002
19.5
23.3
15.1
8.2
18.9
16.3
2.6
Daunte Culpepper
MIN
2001
22.4
26.0
18.0
8.0
21.4
23.3
-1.8
Steve McNair
TEN
2001
21.3
25.1
17.0
8.0
20.5
18.4
2.1
Kurt Warner
STL
2000
22.0
28.6
16.5
12.1
21.0
27.0
-6.0
Steve McNair
TEN
1999
21.3
28.3
13.0
15.3
18.6
10.7
7.9
Steve Young
SFO
1997
18.2
23.5
12.0
11.5
33.1
26.8
6.2
Steve Young
SFO
1992
22.6
28.2
17.0
11.2
20.4
25.5
-5.1
Steve Young
SFO
1991
23.7
29.1
17.2
12.0
28.2
17.0
11.2
Chris Miller
ATL
1990
17.5
23.8
12.9
10.9
18.8
17.4
1.4
Warren Moon
HOU
1989
20.0
24.7
15.2
9.5
27.2
27.1
0.1
Boomer Esiason
CIN
1989
20.1
25.5
14.8
10.8
16.0
14.4
1.5
Warren Moon
HOU
1988
20.4
25.4
16.2
9.2
24.7
15.2
9.5
Average
20.9
26.0
15.7
10.3
22.3
19.6
2.7

On average, the quarterbacks went from averaging 10.3 more FP/G at home to only averaging 2.7 FP/G at home. And while that might make you think starting Favre at home will continue to be a good thing, note that over the same time span, top-15 quarterbacks averaged 1.4 more FP/G at home than on the road. One could argue that being at home is more likely to benefit Favre than most quarterbacks since he plays in a dome, but no such "dome field advantage" worked out for Daunte Culpepper ('01-'02) or Kurt Warner ('00 to '01), Chris Miler ('90 to '91) or Warren Moon ('89 to '90). Favre might be better at home than on the road again in 2010, but I don't think we should expect him to be much better. And I certainly wouldn't base a fantasy strategy on that happening again. Favre was a fantasy beast at home in 2009, but sometimes, splits just happen.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to stuart@footballguys.com.

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