Player Round Table (Vincent Jackson)
By FBG Staff; Hosted by Maurile Tremblay
August 6th, 2010

Here at Footballguys.com, we have Spotlights and Faceoffs. Those features are fairly comprehensive, but they are limited to viewpoints from either one or two writers. Some players need a little more commentary. We have opened up the dialog and asked our staff to leave their thoughts on these players and what is expected from them in 2010. Here, discussion centers around WR Vincent Jackson.

Maurile Tremblay: I think there's a very high probability that Vincent Jackson will sit out until at least November; I therefore think his ADP is way too high.

Jackson is a Pro Bowl talent who just became a free agent when his rookie contract expired at the end of last season. With five accrued seasons under his belt, he would normally be an unrestricted free agent. But since this is an uncapped year, the requirement went from four accrued seasons to six, making Jackson a restricted free agent. He is rather unhappy about it.

The Chargers originally placed a first-and-third round tender on him, offering him about $3.29 million guaranteed on a one-year contract.

Jackson did not sign that tender, and the Chargers have since reduced it to about $600K - 110% of his 2009 salary (which they were allowed to do once Jackson didn't sign the original tender by June 15).

Jackson's threat to sit out the entire season is credible, since he probably won't need another accrued season to become an unrestricted free agent, and the $600K currently on the table is almost meaningless compared to the kind of money he thinks he'll eventually get from a long-term deal. (Brandon Marshall's deal is worth almost $50 million.)

It looks like the best realistic scenario for Jackson's fantasy prospects in 2010 is to be traded before the October deadline. The Seahawks and Redskins are reportedly interested, trading Jackson would bring a greater return than the third-round compensatory pick the Chargers would likely get by letting him walk. Still, public comments by Chargers GM A.J. Smith do not indicate that he's eager to trade Jackson.

David Dodds: The upcoming strike has created a situation where the best players are having trouble getting a long-term deals. That includes Brady, Brees, Manning, Revis, and others. So when the multiple DUI-guy says, "Pay me or I sit," ...well, we knew how this was going to end. Once General Manager AJ Smith draws a line in the sand, it's over. And this one is over. Unless Jackson is traded, I don't think we will see him until very late in the year, if at all. I expect him to sit out his 10 games. And then depending on how team chemistry is, I am not sure Jackson becomes the instant starter (since the team will likely not be keeping him going forward). At his current ADP, this is way too big of a stretch. Give me the hard working Malcom Floyd way later in the draft without all the surrounding noise.

Will Grant: I agree with Dodds on this one. I'd also like to add that although a trade will give Jackson more points on the season, it's hard to see him putting up top 12 numbers on another team. Seattle seems to be the team expressing the most interest in Jackson. If a trade happened tomorrow and they gave him a long term contract, after a his three-game suspension, he's going to top out somewhere around 700 yards and 4 TDs. People taking him as WR11 are assuming this is just your typical hold-out that sounds bad in July and August but will be resolved before the season starts. I don't see that happening here.

Maurile Tremblay: Another consideration is that the Chargers could probably get as much for Jackson in a sign-and-trade deal next April as they could now, while retaining his services for the 2010 playoffs if Jackson reports in week ten. Why should they deal him for a first-rounder now instead of dealing him for a first-rounder next April (if that is what they can get for him)? As long as his trade value doesn't decrease between now and next April - and it may actually increase after he gets his suspension out of the way - I don't see a compelling reason to trade him now unless they plan to use the franchise tag on another player next year, making it unavailable to use in a sign-and-trade deal on Jackson.

Mark Wimer: I really think that his contract demands are beyond reason given the upcoming three-game suspension. I don't see how any team trades the rich draft picks the Chargers are demanding and ALSO eat a three-game suspension (on top of a $40+ million deal).

Jeff Pasquino: The Chargers to target here are Gates, Malcom Floyd and, to a lesser extent, Legedu Naanee - although Ryan Mathews can completely change the game here. Gates will get more looks and Floyd will be the WR1 for September if not longer as Philip Rivers gets comfy with his big TE and new favorite wideout.

There is no way I would grab Vincent Jackson for my fantasy team until I had four other wideouts on my roster. Even if you grab him for a playoff push, there is not much on that second half schedule that screams "good matchup." I am quite likely to let someone else worry about this potential headache.

Sigmund Bloom: Jackson's name-recognition value plus the classic "always bet against the holdout" logic will keep some hopeful owner pulling the trigger too early on him. Still, savvy owners will know that when Jackson drops to the double-digit rounds, he's worth a pick and should be atop the target list. Once the pessimism of the fantasy world catches up to the reality of Jackson's situation, it will probably depress his value past the real hit it should take, and smart owners will take advantage. If you can get Jackson outside of the first 8-9 rounds, the risk that he doesn't contribute much to your fantasy team at all is more than outweighed by his WR1 upside for the segment of the season (if any) that he does actually play at full speed.

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