New Math
By David Dodds
July 28th, 2010

Note: This article is using PPR data

While writing my Eliminate the Suck article, I started wondering aloud if I might be taking a wrong approach to drafting. What largely follows from those thoughts is a giant math exercise. My assumptions have not been fully back-tested nor do I know exactly how well to weight the three factors I will discuss below. But even despite those concerns, I feel compelled to state the things I am stating and show my work, because I think hidden in this exercise will likely yield some deeper meaning of some of the players we should build our teams around.

My assumptions (listed in my perceived order of importance):

  1. The first five weeks are the most important of your fantasy football life. When your players do good in these weeks, you have the most options going forward with your team. These players can be traded high while once highly sought after players pre-draft might be acquired low. It also goes without saying that acquiring early wins gives you a lot better chance at (a) making the playoffs and (b) improving your roster via waivers later (as other owners lose hope of making the playoffs).

  2. Winning your fantasy league involves winning the playoffs. It's not enough to just get there. You need to do well in weeks 14 through 16. In my early fantasy career, I would draft a large number of players from teams that I felt had the easiest fantasy playoff schedules. Those teams won their leagues a surprisingly high percentage of the time. And that makes sense. If you build your roster with the end in mind and manage to get that roster to those weeks in which it was created, you should be fielding a team very capable of winning it all. Conversely if you draft players that line up against the Jets, Ravens, etc in the final weeks, you may find your team struggling to land that trophy regardless of how well the squad played all year long. Since the payouts in most leagues are skewed heavily towards the top prize, building with the end in mind generally increases a roster's expected value.

  3. Great offenses produce significantly more great values than average and below average teams. In fact, players from bad teams almost always disappoint. Who on the Oakland Raiders last year outplayed their ADP? Michael Bush likely did, but he was still a hard person to know when to play. Zach Miller might have outplayed his ADP, but with so few scores could you start him with any confidence? How about Detroit? Calvin Johnson started well and eventually disappointed. The RBs were all bad. The TEs and other WRs were far too inconsistent to ever matter. QB Matt Stafford threw way too many interceptions to be anything but a spot starter as well. You get the points. Bad offenses disappoint. They generally involve rotating QBs, juggling the offensive line, etc. All of these constant changes usually brings down everyone on the roster.

Starting with these three assumptions I set out to build a better set of rankings (Actually I set out to create multipliers that I would adjust my projections accordingly).

Tackling the first 5 weeks:

Clayton Gray is the expert on Strength of Schedule and he gets into deep number crunching on which positions will do good/bad against the various defenses. From experience though, I know his early positional SOS numbers have a high variance (this improves as we see more games played making his SOS extremely powerful by season's end). This early variance is likely caused by our overall failure to adequately predict how good defenses will play in the coming year. Are they better against the run or pass? History plays a part as does a team's scheme, but this does feel like a situation where it's not as easy to tell the above average over the below average defenses against RBs at the start of the year.

In an effort to simlify things, I looked to the FBG Consensus Expert Rankings. I divided the consensus list into 8 tiers. The top tier (toughest defenses) would count as -5 for the team playing them that week. Conversely, the bottom tier would count as +5 for the opponent. The eight tiers would yield (-5, -3, -1, 0, 0, +1, +3, +5) for every game played. Byes would be counted as zeros.

This approach yielded the follow (listed alphabetically by tier):

  • Tier 1 "Best" defenses (-5 points): Baltimore, Minnesota, New York Jets, Philadelphia
  • Tier 2 defenses (-3 points): Dallas, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
  • Tier 3 defenses (-1 point): Chicago, Cincinnati, New England, New York
  • Tier 4 and 5 defenses (0 points): Carolina, Denver, Houston, Indianapolis, Miami, New Orleans, San Diego, Tennessee
  • Tier 6 defenses (+1 point): Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, Washington
  • Tier 7 defenses (+3 points): Jacksonville, Oakland, Seattle, Tampa Bay
  • Tier 8 "Worst" defenses (+5 points): Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, St. Louis
  • Additionally to account for teams generally scoring more points (and having more success in home games), I gave +2 points for a home game and -2 for an away game. If a team had 3 home and 2 away games in the first five they would receive an additional 2 points.

    Tackling the playoff weeks:

    I took the exact same approach as the first 3 weeks with the same tiering scale.

    Offensive Adjustment:

    The approaches for the starting and playoff weeks yielded ranges of +15 to -11 and +11 to -15 respectively. I wanted to grade the offenses in a similar scale and opted to define them as +15 to -15 in groups of four. I totalled all PPR fantasy points the offenses would score using my projections. This approach yielded the follow (listed alphabetically by tier):

  • Tier 1 "Best" offenses (+15 points): Dallas, Green Bay, Indianapolis, New Orleans
  • Tier 2 offenses (+10 points): Houston, Minnesota, New England, San Diego
  • Tier 3 offenses (+5 points): Atlanta, New York Giants, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh
  • Tier 4 and 5 offenses (0 points): Arizona, Baltimore, Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, Miami, washington
  • Tier 6 offenses (-5 points): Cincinnati, New York Jets, Seattle, San Francisco
  • Tier 7 offenses (-10 points): Carolina, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Tennessee
  • Tier 8 "Worst" offenses (-15 points): Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland, St. Louis
  • Combining Everything:

    I am not sure exactly how to weight these three factors correctly so I guessed at it. The rating of the offenses is already deeply imbedded into my projections so I feel it is of least importance. The playoff weeks only will matter if your team is good enough to get there. The first 5 weeks always matter. Based on these things, I opted to calculate my Combined Score as:

    Combined Score = (3 x Early Schedule) + (2 x Late Schedule) + (Offensive Adjustment)

    These scores are then sorted to apply the multiplier values.

    I don't really have a good feel on how much to adjust values up or down here. I opted for a +15% to -15% range using the same 4 team separators between levels. This might be understating things, but I also did not want to just throw out my core work on the projections.

    The table below summarizes all of the math discused above:

    Rank team 1 2 3 4 5 H/A start 14 15 16 H/A end off_adj *combined multiplier
    1 SD 5 3 3 1 3 -2 13 5 -3 -1 2 3 10 55 1.15
    2 Ind 0 -1 0 3 5 -2 5 0 3 3 -2 4 15 38 1.15
    3 StL 1 3 1 3 5 2 15 0 5 -3 2 4 -15 38 1.15
    4 Ari 5 1 3 0 0 -2 7 0 0 -3 2 -1 0 19 1.15
    5 Oak 0 5 1 0 0 2 8 3 0 0 2 5 -15 19 1.10
    6 TB 5 0 -3 0 -1 0 1 1 5 3 2 11 -10 15 1.10
    7 GB -5 1 -1 5 1 -2 -1 5 -1 -1 -2 1 15 14 1.10
    8 Dal 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -5 1 1 2 -1 15 13 1.10
    9 SF 3 0 5 1 -5 -2 2 3 0 5 -2 6 -5 13 1.05
    10 Jac 0 0 -5 0 1 2 -2 3 0 1 2 6 0 6 1.05
    11 Cin -1 -5 0 5 3 -2 0 -3 5 0 2 4 -5 3 1.05
    12 Hou 0 1 -3 3 -1 2 2 -5 0 0 -2 -7 10 2 1.05
    13 KC 0 5 -3 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 -2 3 -10 2 1.00
    14 Pit 1 0 3 -5 0 0 -1 -1 -5 0 6 0 5 2 1.00
    15 Atl -3 1 0 -3 5 -2 -2 0 3 0 -2 1 5 1 1.00
    16 Den 3 3 0 0 -5 -2 -1 1 3 0 -2 2 0 1 1.00
    17 NO -5 -3 1 0 1 2 -4 5 -5 1 -2 -1 15 1 1.00
    18 Min 0 0 5 0 -5 0 0 -1 -1 -5 2 -5 10 0 1.00
    19 Sea -3 0 0 5 0 0 2 -3 1 3 -2 -1 -5 -1 1.00
    20 Car -1 3 -1 0 -1 2 2 1 1 -3 2 1 -10 -2 1.00
    21 Ten 3 -3 -1 0 -3 2 -2 0 0 5 2 7 -10 -2 0.95
    22 Was -3 0 5 -5 -3 2 -4 3 -3 3 -2 1 0 -10 0.95
    23 Bal -5 -1 5 -3 0 -2 -6 0 0 5 -2 3 0 -12 0.95
    24 Cle 3 5 -5 -1 1 2 5 1 -1 -5 -2 -7 -15 -14 0.95
    25 Phi -3 5 3 1 -3 -2 1 -3 -1 -5 -2 -11 5 -14 0.90
    26 Buf 0 -3 -1 -5 3 2 -4 5 0 -1 2 6 -15 -15 0.90
    27 NE -1 -5 1 0 0 0 -5 -1 -3 1 -2 -5 10 -15 0.90
    28 NYG 0 0 0 -1 0 2 1 -5 -5 -3 -2 -15 5 -22 0.90
    29 Mia 1 -5 -5 -1 0 0 -10 -5 1 5 2 3 0 -24 0.85
    30 Chi 5 -3 -3 -1 0 -2 -4 -1 -5 -5 2 -9 0 -30 0.85
    31 Det -1 -5 -5 -3 5 -2 -11 -3 3 0 -2 -2 0 -37 0.85
    32 NYJ -5 -1 0 1 -5 2 -8 0 -3 -1 -2 -6 -5 -41 0.85

    Applying the multipliers to my current projections yields these differences:

    Quarterbacks

    New Rank Old Rank Difference Pos Player Team FP Old (PPR) adjust FP New (adj_ppr)
    1 3 2 QB Peyton Manning Ind/7 333.9 1.15 384
    2 1 -1 QB Aaron Rodgers GB/10 345.9 1.10 380.5
    3 4 1 QB Tony Romo Dal/4 327.5 1.10 360.2
    4 2 -2 QB Drew Brees NO/10 334.7 1.00 334.7
    5 5 0 QB Matt Schaub Hou/7 315.4 1.05 331.2
    6 9 3 QB Philip Rivers SD/10 281.9 1.15 324.1
    7 6 -1 QB Tom Brady NE/5 313.0 0.90 281.7
    8 10 2 QB Brett Favre Min/4 278.4 1.00 278.4
    9 12 3 QB Matt Ryan Atl/8 269.9 1.00 269.9
    10 15 5 QB David Garrard Jac/9 249.6 1.05 262.1
    11 16 5 QB Carson Palmer Cin/6 248.3 1.05 260.8
    12 18 6 QB Alex Smith SF/9 247.7 1.05 260.1
    13 7 -6 QB Kevin Kolb Phi/8 283.5 0.90 255.2
    14 13 -1 QB Donovan McNabb Was/9 268.1 0.95 254.7
    15 14 -1 QB Joe Flacco Bal/8 267.3 0.95 253.9
    16 25 9 QB Matt Leinart Ari/6 219.5 1.15 252.4
    17 11 -6 QB Eli Manning NYG/8 272.9 0.90 245.7
    18 23 5 QB Josh Freeman TB/4 220.8 1.10 242.9
    19 24 5 QB Jason Campbell Oak/10 219.6 1.10 241.5
    20 8 -12 QB Jay Cutler Chi/8 282.1 0.85 239.8
    21 19 -2 QB Vince Young Ten/9 244.4 0.95 232.2
    22 21 -1 QB Matt Cassel KC/4 231.1 1.00 231.1
    23 26 3 QB Matt Hasselbeck Sea/5 218.5 1.00 218.5
    24 27 3 QB Kyle Orton Den/9 215.7 1.00 215.7
    25 30 5 QB Sam Bradford StL/9 187.4 1.15 215.6
    26 17 -9 QB Matthew Stafford Det/7 248.2 0.85 211
    27 28 1 QB Ben Roethlisberger Pit/5 208.0 1.00 208
    28 20 -8 QB Chad Henne Mia/5 236.3 0.85 200.8
    29 29 0 QB Matt Moore Car/6 190.5 1.00 190.5
    30 22 -8 QB Mark Sanchez NYJ/7 223.4 0.85 189.9
    31 31 0 QB Trent Edwards Buf/6 184.3 0.90 165.8
    32 32 0 QB Jake Delhomme Cle/8 159.9 0.95 151.9
    33 33 0 QB Byron Leftwich Pit/5 64.9 1.00 64.9
    34 34 0 QB Derek Anderson Ari/6 43.7 1.15 50.2
    35 36 1 QB Tim Tebow Den/9 35.9 1.00 35.9
    36 37 1 QB Josh Johnson TB/4 32.0 1.10 35.2
    37 35 -2 QB Michael Vick Phi/8 38.2 0.90 34.4
    38 38 0 QB Charlie Whitehurst Sea/5 31.5 1.00 31.5
    39 44 5 QB A.J. Feeley StL/9 25.0 1.15 28.7
    40 39 -1 QB Seneca Wallace Cle/8 29.3 0.95 27.9
    41 43 2 QB Luke McCown Jac/9 26.4 1.05 27.7
    42 41 -1 QB Brady Quinn Den/9 27.0 1.00 27
    43 42 -1 QB Dennis Dixon Pit/5 26.6 1.00 26.6
    44 40 -4 QB Ryan Fitzpatrick Buf/6 28.6 0.90 25.8
    45 45 0 QB Jimmy Clausen Car/6 21.8 1.00 21.8
    46 47 1 QB Bruce Gradkowski Oak/10 17.5 1.10 19.3
    47 48 1 QB Matt Flynn GB/10 17.4 1.10 19.2
    48 46 -2 QB Kerry Collins Ten/9 19.5 0.95 18.6
    49 49 0 QB Tarvaris Jackson Min/4 17.1 1.00 17.1
    50 50 0 QB Brodie Croyle KC/4 16.9 1.00 16.9
    51 51 0 QB Jon Kitna Dal/4 13.9 1.10 15.3
    52 52 0 QB Jim Sorgi NYG/8 13.5 0.90 12.2
    53 56 3 QB David Carr SF/9 9.8 1.05 10.3
    54 58 4 QB Dan Orlovsky Hou/7 9.5 1.05 10
    55 53 -2 QB Kellen Clemens NYJ/7 11.7 0.85 10
    56 54 -2 QB Rex Grossman Was/9 10.3 0.95 9.8
    57 63 6 QB Curtis Painter Ind/7 7.6 1.15 8.8
    58 55 -3 QB Chad Pennington Mia/5 10.1 0.85 8.6
    59 62 3 QB J.T. O\'Sullivan Cin/6 7.9 1.05 8.3
    60 57 -3 QB Shaun Hill Det/7 9.6 0.85 8.1
    61 66 5 QB Billy Volek SD/10 7.1 1.15 8.1
    62 61 -1 QB Chase Daniel NO/10 7.9 1.00 7.9
    63 59 -4 QB Caleb Hanie Chi/8 8.8 0.85 7.5
    64 65 1 QB Chris Redman Atl/8 7.4 1.00 7.4
    65 60 -5 QB Brian Hoyer NE/5 8.2 0.90 7.3
    66 64 -2 QB Marc Bulger Bal/8 7.6 0.95 7.2
    67 67 0 QB Colt McCoy Cle/8 6.5 0.95 6.1

    Running Backs

    New Rank Old Rank Difference Pos Player Team FP Old (PPR) adjust FP New (adj_ppr)
    1 2 1 RB Maurice Jones-Drew Jac/9 310.1 1.05 325.6
    2 4 2 RB Adrian Peterson Min/4 305.1 1.00 305.1
    3 6 3 RB Steven Jackson StL/9 265.0 1.15 304.7
    4 1 -3 RB Chris Johnson Ten/9 318.7 0.95 302.8
    5 3 -2 RB Ray Rice Bal/8 308.5 0.95 293.1
    6 5 -1 RB Frank Gore SF/9 265.0 1.05 278.3
    7 12 5 RB Chris Wells Ari/6 216.3 1.15 248.7
    8 13 5 RB Ryan Mathews SD/10 211.6 1.15 243.4
    9 17 8 RB Joseph Addai Ind/7 205.8 1.15 236.6
    10 16 6 RB Ryan Grant GB/10 208.4 1.10 229.2
    11 7 -4 RB Rashard Mendenhall Pit/5 227.6 1.00 227.6
    12 8 -4 RB Jamaal Charles KC/4 224.9 1.00 224.9
    13 9 -4 RB Pierre Thomas NO/10 221.0 1.00 221
    14 10 -4 RB Knowshon Moreno Den/9 219.7 1.00 219.7
    15 11 -4 RB Michael Turner Atl/8 218.5 1.00 218.5
    16 14 -2 RB Deangelo Williams Car/6 211.4 1.00 211.4
    17 21 4 RB Felix Jones Dal/4 190.1 1.10 209.1
    18 15 -3 RB Reggie Bush NO/10 208.9 1.00 208.9
    19 25 6 RB Darren Sproles SD/10 178.5 1.15 205.3
    20 20 0 RB Jonathan Stewart Car/6 199.7 1.00 199.7
    21 22 1 RB Cedric Benson Cin/6 187.4 1.05 196.8
    22 33 11 RB Tim Hightower Ari/6 162.4 1.15 186.8
    23 31 8 RB Michael Bush Oak/10 166.9 1.10 183.6
    24 32 8 RB Carnell Williams TB/4 164.1 1.10 180.5
    25 19 -6 RB LeSean McCoy Phi/8 200.2 0.90 180.2
    26 27 1 RB Justin Forsett Sea/5 176.6 1.00 176.6
    27 18 -9 RB Jahvid Best Det/7 203.4 0.85 172.8
    28 26 -2 RB C.J. Spiller Buf/6 176.8 0.90 159.1
    29 23 -6 RB Shonn Greene NYJ/7 186.6 0.85 158.6
    30 29 -1 RB Fred Jackson Buf/6 172.4 0.90 155.2
    31 41 10 RB Marion Barber Dal/4 141.1 1.10 155.2
    32 24 -8 RB Ronnie Brown Mia/5 182.2 0.85 154.9
    33 30 -3 RB Ahmad Bradshaw NYG/8 169.9 0.90 152.9
    34 35 1 RB Jerome Harrison Cle/8 160.4 0.95 152.4
    35 45 10 RB Donald Brown Ind/7 130.2 1.15 149.8
    36 38 2 RB Clinton Portis Was/9 155.5 0.95 147.7
    37 28 -9 RB Ricky Williams Mia/5 173.6 0.85 147.5
    38 44 6 RB Darren McFadden Oak/10 132.3 1.10 145.5
    39 42 3 RB Steve Slaton Hou/7 138.2 1.05 145.2
    40 34 -6 RB Brandon Jacobs NYG/8 160.8 0.90 144.7
    41 39 -2 RB Laurence Maroney NE/5 150.4 0.90 135.4
    42 36 -6 RB Matt Forte Chi/8 158.3 0.85 134.5
    43 43 0 RB Correll Buckhalter Den/9 134.4 1.00 134.4
    44 37 -7 RB Chester Taylor Chi/8 155.8 0.85 132.4
    45 47 2 RB Arian Foster Hou/7 123.4 1.05 129.6
    46 46 0 RB Leon Washington Sea/5 128.8 1.00 128.8
    47 51 4 RB Derrick Ward TB/4 112.6 1.10 123.9
    48 40 -8 RB Ladainian Tomlinson NYJ/7 142.3 0.85 121
    49 48 -1 RB Montario Hardesty Cle/8 122.3 0.95 116.2
    50 52 2 RB Thomas Jones KC/4 111.0 1.00 111
    51 50 -1 RB Willis McGahee Bal/8 113.0 0.95 107.3
    52 53 1 RB Toby Gerhart Min/4 104.0 1.00 104
    53 49 -4 RB Kevin Faulk NE/5 114.8 0.90 103.4
    54 54 0 RB Jason Snelling Atl/8 92.2 1.00 92.2
    55 57 2 RB Ben Tate Hou/7 84.1 1.05 88.3
    56 56 0 RB Larry Johnson Was/9 87.2 0.95 82.8
    57 55 -2 RB Mike Bell Phi/8 88.5 0.90 79.7
    58 62 4 RB Brandon Jackson GB/10 71.8 1.10 78.9
    59 60 1 RB Jerious Norwood Atl/8 73.6 1.00 73.6
    60 63 3 RB Brian Leonard Cin/6 69.7 1.05 73.2
    61 64 3 RB Bernard Scott Cin/6 68.6 1.05 72.1
    62 58 -4 RB Leonard Weaver Phi/8 79.4 0.90 71.4
    63 66 3 RB Tashard Choice Dal/4 63.2 1.10 69.5
    64 59 -5 RB Fred Taylor NE/5 75.5 0.90 68
    65 65 0 RB Javon Ringer Ten/9 66.5 0.95 63.2
    66 67 1 RB Rashad Jennings Jac/9 59.9 1.05 62.8
    67 61 -6 RB Kevin Smith Det/7 72.6 0.85 61.7
    68 69 1 RB Lynell Hamilton NO/10 56.8 1.00 56.8
    69 71 2 RB Mewelde Moore Pit/5 55.7 1.00 55.7
    70 68 -2 RB Sammy Morris NE/5 58.7 0.90 52.8
    71 73 2 RB Julius Jones Sea/5 51.1 1.00 51.1
    72 72 0 RB LeRon McClain Bal/8 52.5 0.95 49.9
    73 70 -3 RB Joe McKnight NYJ/7 56.7 0.85 48.2
    74 74 0 RB Jonathan Dwyer Pit/5 44.4 1.00 44.4
    75 77 2 RB Brian Westbrook FA 41.7 1.00 41.7
    76 80 4 RB Mike Tolbert SD/10 34.2 1.15 39.3
    77 75 -2 RB Marshawn Lynch Buf/6 43.0 0.90 38.7
    78 78 0 RB Glen Coffee SF/9 36.3 1.05 38.1
    79 79 0 RB James Starks GB/10 34.4 1.10 37.8
    80 76 -4 RB Maurice Morris Det/7 42.7 0.85 36.3
    81 84 3 RB Kenneth Darby StL/9 30.2 1.15 34.7
    82 83 1 RB Anthony Dixon SF/9 31.6 1.05 33.1
    83 88 5 RB Chris Ogbonnaya StL/9 27.1 1.15 31.1
    84 85 1 RB Ryan Moats Hou/7 29.4 1.05 30.8
    85 82 -3 RB James Davis Cle/8 31.9 0.95 30.3
    86 81 -5 RB Lousaka Polite Mia/5 34.0 0.85 28.9
    87 93 6 RB Earnest Graham TB/4 23.5 1.10 25.9
    88 86 -2 RB Danny Ware NYG/8 28.7 0.90 25.8
    89 89 0 RB Tyrell Sutton Car/6 25.3 1.00 25.3
    90 91 1 RB Vonta Leach Hou/7 23.7 1.05 24.8
    91 87 -4 RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis NE/5 27.4 0.90 24.7
    92 96 4 RB Mike Hart Ind/7 20.3 1.15 23.3
    93 92 -1 RB Mike Sellers Was/9 23.6 0.95 22.4
    94 99 5 RB LaRod Stephens-Howling Ari/6 19.2 1.15 22.1
    95 90 -5 RB Jerome Felton Det/7 25.1 0.85 21.3
    96 95 -1 RB Heath Evans NO/10 20.4 1.00 20.4
    97 98 1 RB Deji Karim Jac/9 19.2 1.05 20.2
    98 100 2 RB Ovie Mughelli Atl/8 19.1 1.00 19.1
    99 101 2 RB Willie Parker Was/9 19.0 0.95 18
    100 102 2 RB Alvin Pearman Ten/9 18.6 0.95 17.7
    101 103 2 RB Mike Cox KC/4 17.4 1.00 17.4
    102 94 -8 RB Lex Hilliard Mia/5 20.5 0.85 17.4
    103 106 3 RB Gary Russell Oak/10 15.7 1.10 17.3
    104 107 3 RB Rock Cartwright Oak/10 15.5 1.10 17.1
    105 105 0 RB J.J. Arrington Den/9 16.6 1.00 16.6
    106 97 -9 RB Patrick Cobbs Mia/5 19.3 0.85 16.4
    107 109 2 RB Jacob Hester SD/10 14.1 1.15 16.2
    108 104 -4 RB Peyton Hillis Cle/8 16.8 0.95 16
    109 110 1 RB Albert Young Min/4 13.4 1.00 13.4
    110 113 3 RB Fui Vakapuna Cin/6 12.0 1.05 12.6
    111 108 -3 RB Aaron Brown Det/7 14.5 0.85 12.3
    112 112 0 RB Andre Brown NYG/8 13.3 0.90 12
    113 111 -2 RB Kahlil Bell Chi/8 13.4 0.85 11.4
    114 115 1 RB Jason Wright Ari/6 8.8 1.15 10.1
    115 114 -1 RB Lawrence Vickers Cle/8 10.2 0.95 9.6
    116 117 1 RB John Kuhn GB/10 8.4 1.10 9.2
    117 120 3 RB Jeff Dugan Min/4 8.1 1.00 8.1
    118 124 6 RB Mike Karney StL/9 7.1 1.15 8.1
    119 116 -3 RB Ahmard Hall Ten/9 8.5 0.95 8.1
    120 123 3 RB Deon Anderson Dal/4 7.1 1.10 7.9
    121 118 -3 RB Madison Hedgecock NYG/8 8.3 0.90 7.5
    122 126 4 RB Clifton Smith TB/4 6.9 1.10 7.5
    123 122 -1 RB Mike Goodson Car/6 7.2 1.00 7.2
    124 119 -5 RB Eddie Williams Chi/8 8.2 0.85 7
    125 127 2 RB Moran Norris SF/9 6.7 1.05 7
    126 121 -5 RB Garrett Wolfe Chi/8 7.7 0.85 6.6
    127 130 3 RB Greg Jones Jac/9 6.3 1.05 6.6
    128 131 3 RB Luke Lawton Oak/10 5.6 1.10 6.2
    129 128 -1 RB Ryan Torain Was/9 6.5 0.95 6.2
    130 125 -5 RB Tony Richardson NYJ/7 7.0 0.85 5.9
    131 129 -2 RB Eldra Buckley Phi/8 6.4 0.90 5.8
    132 134 2 RB Justin Green Ari/6 4.9 1.15 5.6
    133 133 0 RB Kolby Smith KC/4 5.6 1.00 5.6
    134 132 -2 RB Carey Davis Pit/5 5.6 1.00 5.6
    135 135 0 RB Tony Fiammetta Car/6 4.8 1.00 4.8
    136 137 1 RB Tim Castille KC/4 4.4 1.00 4.4
    137 136 -1 RB Owen Schmitt Sea/5 4.4 1.00 4.4
    138 138 0 RB Gartrell Johnson NYG/8 4.0 0.90 3.6
    139 139 0 RB Justise Hairston Buf/6 2.4 0.90 2.2
    140 140 0 RB Jalen Parmele Bal/8 1.9 0.95 1.8

    Tight Ends

    New Rank Old Rank Difference Pos Player Team FP Old (PPR) adjust FP New (adj_ppr)
    1 1 0 TE Antonio Gates SD/10 226.4 1.15 260.4
    2 2 0 TE Dallas Clark Ind/7 222.3 1.15 255.6
    3 3 0 TE Jermichael Finley GB/10 210.5 1.10 231.5
    4 4 0 TE Jason Witten Dal/4 203.3 1.10 223.7
    5 5 0 TE Vernon Davis SF/9 199.7 1.05 209.7
    6 6 0 TE Tony Gonzalez Atl/8 197.5 1.00 197.5
    7 8 1 TE Zach Miller Oak/10 175.5 1.10 193.1
    8 9 1 TE Kellen Winslow TB/4 174.8 1.10 192.3
    9 10 1 TE Heath Miller Pit/5 169.8 1.00 169.8
    10 11 1 TE Owen Daniels Hou/7 155.8 1.05 163.5
    11 7 -4 TE Brent Celek Phi/8 180.5 0.90 162.5
    12 13 1 TE Visanthe Shiancoe Min/4 144.5 1.00 144.5
    13 12 -1 TE Chris Cooley Was/9 148.2 0.95 140.8
    14 14 0 TE John Carlson Sea/5 136.5 1.00 136.5
    15 15 0 TE Jeremy Shockey NO/10 129.0 1.00 129
    16 16 0 TE Dustin Keller NYJ/7 119.4 0.85 101.5
    17 17 0 TE Greg Olsen Chi/8 117.4 0.85 99.8
    18 18 0 TE Todd Heap Bal/8 97.4 0.95 92.5
    19 25 6 TE Daniel Fells StL/9 77.9 1.15 89.6
    20 19 -1 TE Bo Scaife Ten/9 94.3 0.95 89.6
    21 24 3 TE Marcedes Lewis Jac/9 79.8 1.05 83.8
    22 26 4 TE Zach Miller Jac/9 76.8 1.05 80.6
    23 23 0 TE Fred Davis Was/9 83.6 0.95 79.4
    24 20 -4 TE Tony Scheffler Det/7 92.6 0.85 78.7
    25 22 -3 TE Kevin Boss NYG/8 85.6 0.90 77
    26 21 -5 TE Anthony Fasano Mia/5 86.8 0.85 73.8
    27 27 0 TE Jared Cook Ten/9 74.3 0.95 70.6
    28 29 1 TE Jermaine Gresham Cin/6 66.5 1.05 69.9
    29 28 -1 TE Ben Watson Cle/8 69.7 0.95 66.2
    30 31 1 TE Tony Moeaki KC/4 64.5 1.00 64.5
    31 32 1 TE Daniel Graham Den/9 62.8 1.00 62.8
    32 33 1 TE David Thomas NO/10 57.3 1.00 57.3
    33 34 1 TE Dante Rosario Car/6 56.9 1.00 56.9
    34 30 -4 TE Brandon Pettigrew Det/7 66.3 0.85 56.4
    35 36 1 TE Gary Barnidge Car/6 52.5 1.00 52.5
    36 39 3 TE Martellus Bennett Dal/4 43.7 1.10 48
    37 35 -2 TE Aaron Hernandez NE/5 52.7 0.90 47.4
    38 37 -1 TE Shawn Nelson Buf/6 51.2 0.90 46.1
    39 40 1 TE Chris Baker Sea/5 40.5 1.00 40.5
    40 43 3 TE Fendi Onobun StL/9 34.4 1.15 39.6
    41 38 -3 TE Desmond Clark Chi/8 45.0 0.85 38.2
    42 47 5 TE Ben Patrick Ari/6 32.1 1.15 36.9
    43 44 1 TE Donald Lee GB/10 33.6 1.10 36.9
    44 42 -2 TE Marquez Branson Den/9 36.8 1.00 36.8
    45 48 3 TE Kris Wilson SD/10 31.7 1.15 36.5
    46 50 4 TE Jerramy Stevens TB/4 30.8 1.10 33.8
    47 41 -6 TE Joey Haynos Mia/5 39.0 0.85 33.1
    48 45 -3 TE Jeff King Car/6 32.9 1.00 32.9
    49 51 2 TE James Casey Hou/7 30.5 1.05 32
    50 49 -1 TE Brad Cottam KC/4 31.1 1.00 31.1
    51 52 1 TE Richard Quinn Den/9 30.2 1.00 30.2
    52 46 -6 TE Travis Beckum NYG/8 32.8 0.90 29.5
    53 53 0 TE Dennis Pitta Bal/8 27.5 0.95 26.1
    54 55 1 TE Delanie Walker SF/9 24.7 1.05 26
    55 60 5 TE Billy Bajema StL/9 21.3 1.15 24.5
    56 54 -2 TE Alge Crumpler NE/5 26.9 0.90 24.2
    57 56 -1 TE Matt Spaeth Pit/5 23.8 1.00 23.8
    58 57 -1 TE Derek Schouman Buf/6 23.4 0.90 21.1
    59 61 2 TE Daniel Coats Cin/6 19.9 1.05 20.9
    60 58 -2 TE Cornelius Ingram Phi/8 23.0 0.90 20.7
    61 59 -2 TE Rob Gronkowski NE/5 22.7 0.90 20.4
    62 62 0 TE Jim Kleinsasser Min/4 19.4 1.00 19.4
    63 66 3 TE Tom Santi Ind/7 16.0 1.15 18.4
    64 64 0 TE Leonard Pope KC/4 17.6 1.00 17.6
    65 63 -2 TE Evan Moore Cle/8 18.2 0.95 17.3
    66 65 -1 TE Justin Peelle Atl/8 17.1 1.00 17.1
    67 68 1 TE Gijon Robinson Ind/7 13.4 1.15 15.5
    68 69 1 TE Anthony Becht Ari/6 13.4 1.15 15.4
    69 73 4 TE Tony Stewart Oak/10 11.7 1.10 12.9
    70 71 1 TE Ernest Wilford Jac/9 12.0 1.05 12.6
    71 67 -4 TE Kory Sperry Mia/5 14.2 0.85 12.1
    72 70 -2 TE Brandon Manumaleuna Chi/8 13.3 0.85 11.3
    73 72 -1 TE Robert Royal Cle/8 11.9 0.95 11.3
    74 78 4 TE Dedrick Epps SD/10 9.7 1.15 11.1
    75 76 1 TE Andrew Quarless GB/10 10.0 1.10 10.9
    76 74 -2 TE Jonathan Stupar Buf/6 11.5 0.90 10.3
    77 79 2 TE David Johnson Pit/5 9.7 1.00 9.7
    78 77 -1 TE Craig Stevens Ten/9 9.8 0.95 9.3
    79 81 2 TE John Phillips Dal/4 8.0 1.10 8.8
    80 83 3 TE John Gilmore TB/4 7.8 1.10 8.6
    81 75 -6 TE Will Heller Det/7 10.0 0.85 8.5
    82 82 0 TE Joel Dreessen Hou/7 8.0 1.05 8.4
    83 80 -3 TE Jimmy Graham NO/10 8.2 1.00 8.2
    84 87 3 TE Steven Spach Ari/6 5.8 1.15 6.7
    85 84 -1 TE Ben Hartsock NYJ/7 7.6 0.85 6.5
    86 88 2 TE Brandon Myers Oak/10 5.8 1.10 6.4
    87 85 -2 TE Sean Ryan Was/9 6.0 0.95 5.7
    88 86 -2 TE Bear Pascoe NYG/8 6.0 0.90 5.4

    Wide Receivers

    New Rank Old Rank Difference Pos Player Team FP Old (PPR) adjust FP New (adj_ppr)
    1 2 1 WR Larry Fitzgerald Ari/6 283.2 1.15 325.7
    2 1 -1 WR Andre Johnson Hou/7 292.2 1.05 306.8
    3 4 1 WR Reggie Wayne Ind/7 254.7 1.15 292.9
    4 6 2 WR Miles Austin Dal/4 250.6 1.10 275.7
    5 7 2 WR Greg Jennings GB/10 236.7 1.10 260.4
    6 5 -1 WR Roddy White Atl/8 253.2 1.00 253.2
    7 11 4 WR Chad Ochocinco Cin/6 228.5 1.05 239.9
    8 3 -5 WR Randy Moss NE/5 262.8 0.90 236.5
    9 8 -1 WR Marques Colston NO/10 233.5 1.00 233.5
    10 12 2 WR Sidney Rice Min/4 225.0 1.00 225
    11 14 3 WR Steve Smith Car/6 219.6 1.00 219.6
    12 15 3 WR Hines Ward Pit/5 215.8 1.00 215.8
    13 20 7 WR Michael Crabtree SF/9 198.0 1.05 207.9
    14 29 15 WR Malcom Floyd SD/10 176.7 1.15 203.3
    15 31 16 WR Steve Breaston Ari/6 175.5 1.15 201.8
    16 18 2 WR Percy Harvin Min/4 201.6 1.00 201.6
    17 13 -4 WR DeSean Jackson Phi/8 223.5 0.90 201.2
    18 24 6 WR Mike Sims-Walker Jac/9 190.6 1.05 200.1
    19 19 0 WR Dwayne Bowe KC/4 199.3 1.00 199.3
    20 9 -11 WR Brandon Marshall Mia/5 232.8 0.85 197.8
    21 10 -11 WR Calvin Johnson Det/7 232.1 0.85 197.3
    22 25 3 WR Terrell Owens Cin/6 186.1 1.05 195.4
    23 16 -7 WR Steve Smith NYG/8 210.4 0.90 189.4
    24 21 -3 WR Anquan Boldin Bal/8 196.0 0.95 186.2
    25 17 -8 WR Hakeem Nicks NYG/8 205.2 0.90 184.6
    26 27 1 WR Jabar Gaffney Den/9 183.5 1.00 183.5
    27 28 1 WR Mike Wallace Pit/5 181.7 1.00 181.7
    28 26 -2 WR Santana Moss Was/9 185.7 0.95 176.4
    29 37 8 WR Donald Driver GB/10 159.8 1.10 175.8
    30 22 -8 WR Wesley Welker NE/5 192.6 0.90 173.3
    31 23 -8 WR Jeremy Maclin Phi/8 191.6 0.90 172.4
    32 33 1 WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh Sea/5 172.2 1.00 172.2
    33 32 -1 WR Derrick Mason Bal/8 174.2 0.95 165.5
    34 41 7 WR Dez Bryant Dal/4 149.7 1.10 164.6
    35 45 10 WR Donnie Avery StL/9 141.8 1.15 163
    36 30 -6 WR Lee Evans Buf/6 176.2 0.90 158.6
    37 36 -1 WR Devin Thomas Was/9 162.1 0.95 154
    38 39 1 WR Robert Meachem NO/10 152.1 1.00 152.1
    39 40 1 WR Eddie Royal Den/9 150.9 1.00 150.9
    40 46 6 WR Mike Thomas Jac/9 140.4 1.05 147.4
    41 56 15 WR Laurent Robinson StL/9 126.5 1.15 145.5
    42 58 16 WR Anthony Gonzalez Ind/7 125.2 1.15 144
    43 60 17 WR Pierre Garcon Ind/7 124.4 1.15 143
    44 34 -10 WR Devin Hester Chi/8 167.6 0.85 142.5
    45 42 -3 WR Mohamed Massaquoi Cle/8 149.1 0.95 141.6
    46 43 -3 WR Kenny Britt Ten/9 148.0 0.95 140.6
    47 51 4 WR Jacoby Jones Hou/7 133.8 1.05 140.5
    48 52 4 WR Arrelious Benn TB/4 127.7 1.10 140.5
    49 35 -14 WR Jerricho Cotchery NYJ/7 164.9 0.85 140.2
    50 54 4 WR James Jones GB/10 127.0 1.10 139.7
    51 66 15 WR Legedu Naanee SD/10 115.8 1.15 133.2
    52 67 15 WR Early Doucet Ari/6 115.1 1.15 132.4
    53 38 -15 WR Johnny Knox Chi/8 155.4 0.85 132.1
    54 68 14 WR Vincent Jackson SD/10 114.0 1.15 131
    55 64 9 WR Darrius Heyward-Bey Oak/10 118.6 1.10 130.4
    56 65 9 WR Roy Williams Dal/4 118.4 1.10 130.2
    57 50 -7 WR Nate Washington Ten/9 135.5 0.95 128.7
    58 62 4 WR Kevin Walter Hou/7 121.7 1.05 127.8
    59 72 13 WR Austin Collie Ind/7 109.8 1.15 126.3
    60 57 -3 WR Bernard Berrian Min/4 125.5 1.00 125.5
    61 44 -17 WR Braylon Edwards NYJ/7 147.3 0.85 125.2
    62 63 1 WR Josh Morgan SF/9 119.3 1.05 125.2
    63 48 -15 WR Mario Manningham NYG/8 138.6 0.90 124.8
    64 69 5 WR Chaz Schilens Oak/10 113.3 1.10 124.7
    65 59 -6 WR Chris Chambers KC/4 124.6 1.00 124.6
    66 61 -5 WR Golden Tate Sea/5 122.6 1.00 122.6
    67 53 -14 WR Josh Cribbs Cle/8 127.1 0.95 120.8
    68 47 -21 WR Santonio Holmes NYJ/7 139.3 0.85 118.4
    69 49 -20 WR Nate Burleson Det/7 137.1 0.85 116.5
    70 74 4 WR Mike Williams TB/4 105.7 1.10 116.3
    71 70 -1 WR Dexter McCluster KC/4 113.3 1.00 113.3
    72 78 6 WR Louis Murphy Oak/10 100.3 1.10 110.3
    73 73 0 WR Demaryius Thomas Den/9 109.1 1.00 109.1
    74 55 -19 WR Devin Aromashodu Chi/8 126.6 0.85 107.6
    75 75 0 WR Michael Jenkins Atl/8 103.9 1.00 103.9
    76 79 3 WR Devery Henderson NO/10 97.2 1.00 97.2
    77 80 3 WR Brandon LaFell Car/6 96.5 1.00 96.5
    78 76 -2 WR Brian Robiskie Cle/8 100.8 0.95 95.8
    79 71 -8 WR Brian Hartline Mia/5 110.5 0.85 93.9
    80 86 6 WR Sammie Stroughter TB/4 85.3 1.10 93.8
    81 82 1 WR Lance Moore NO/10 91.9 1.00 91.9
    82 77 -5 WR Brandon Tate NE/5 100.4 0.90 90.4
    83 83 0 WR Harry Douglas Atl/8 89.7 1.00 89.7
    84 81 -3 WR Jason Avant Phi/8 93.8 0.90 84.4
    85 84 -1 WR Steve Johnson Buf/6 87.3 0.90 78.6
    86 90 4 WR Antonio Bryant Cin/6 73.2 1.05 76.9
    87 95 8 WR Craig Davis SD/10 66.9 1.15 76.9
    88 87 -1 WR Malcom Kelly Was/9 80.7 0.95 76.7
    89 96 7 WR Brandon Gibson StL/9 65.3 1.15 75
    90 88 -2 WR Deon Butler Sea/5 74.7 1.00 74.7
    91 93 2 WR Jarett Dillard Jac/9 69.8 1.05 73.2
    92 91 -1 WR Antwaan Randle El Pit/5 73.0 1.00 73
    93 85 -8 WR Davone Bess Mia/5 85.7 0.85 72.8
    94 89 -5 WR Donte Stallworth Bal/8 74.2 0.95 70.5
    95 98 3 WR Jordy Nelson GB/10 62.2 1.10 68.4
    96 94 -2 WR Eric Decker Den/9 68.3 1.00 68.3
    97 97 0 WR Ted Ginn SF/9 64.5 1.05 67.7
    98 99 1 WR David Anderson Hou/7 61.9 1.05 65
    99 92 -7 WR James Hardy Buf/6 70.6 0.90 63.5
    100 105 5 WR Keenan Burton StL/9 50.3 1.15 57.9
    101 100 -1 WR Ramses Barden NYG/8 61.3 0.90 55.2
    102 102 0 WR Deion Branch Sea/5 53.5 1.00 53.5
    103 101 -2 WR Earl Bennett Chi/8 61.3 0.85 52.1
    104 111 7 WR Matt Jones Cin/6 48.5 1.05 50.9
    105 106 1 WR Dwayne Jarrett Car/6 50.2 1.00 50.2
    106 110 4 WR Jerheme Urban KC/4 48.8 1.00 48.8
    107 114 7 WR Maurice Stovall TB/4 43.5 1.10 47.8
    108 107 -1 WR Damian Williams Ten/9 50.2 0.95 47.7
    109 104 -5 WR Julian Edelman NE/5 52.8 0.90 47.5
    110 109 -1 WR Chansi Stuckey Cle/8 49.0 0.95 46.5
    111 116 5 WR Patrick Crayton Dal/4 41.8 1.10 45.9
    112 118 6 WR Josh Reed SD/10 39.5 1.15 45.4
    113 103 -10 WR Bryant Johnson Det/7 53.0 0.85 45.1
    114 112 -2 WR Mark Clayton Bal/8 47.4 0.95 45
    115 108 -7 WR Torry Holt NE/5 50.0 0.90 45
    116 115 -1 WR Arnaz Battle Pit/5 42.8 1.00 42.8
    117 121 4 WR Johnny Lee Higgins Oak/10 38.4 1.10 42.2
    118 117 -1 WR Emmanuel Sanders Pit/5 40.5 1.00 40.5
    119 120 1 WR Troy Williamson Jac/9 38.4 1.05 40.3
    120 113 -7 WR Greg Camarillo Mia/5 47.2 0.85 40.1
    121 127 6 WR Mardy Gilyard StL/9 34.5 1.15 39.6
    122 119 -3 WR Brian Finneran Atl/8 38.6 1.00 38.6
    123 128 5 WR Andre Roberts Ari/6 33.3 1.15 38.3
    124 124 0 WR Armanti Edwards Car/6 36.5 1.00 36.5
    125 126 1 WR Jason Hill SF/9 34.5 1.05 36.2
    126 122 -4 WR Justin Gage Ten/9 37.6 0.95 35.8
    127 125 -2 WR Chad Jackson Buf/6 36.2 0.90 32.5
    128 123 -5 WR Dennis Northcutt Det/7 36.8 0.85 31.3
    129 131 2 WR Jordan Shipley Cin/6 28.1 1.05 29.5
    130 133 3 WR Reggie Brown TB/4 26.5 1.10 29.2
    131 130 -1 WR Brandon Lloyd Den/9 28.7 1.00 28.7
    132 129 -3 WR Hank Baskett Phi/8 30.3 0.90 27.3
    133 134 1 WR Ben Obomanu Sea/5 26.2 1.00 26.2
    134 132 -2 WR Juaquin Iglesias Chi/8 28.0 0.85 23.8
    135 136 1 WR Kevin Ogletree Dal/4 18.2 1.10 20.1
    136 135 -1 WR Terrence Austin Was/9 18.4 0.95 17.5
    137 138 1 WR Eric Weems Atl/8 16.5 1.00 16.5
    138 141 3 WR Andre Caldwell Cin/6 15.4 1.05 16.2
    139 140 1 WR Jaymar Johnson Min/4 15.6 1.00 15.6
    140 142 2 WR Greg Lewis Min/4 15.4 1.00 15.4
    141 137 -4 WR David Clowney NYJ/7 17.6 0.85 15
    142 144 2 WR Michael Clayton TB/4 13.7 1.10 15
    143 139 -4 WR Marcus Easley Buf/6 15.8 0.90 14.2
    144 143 -1 WR Brandon Stokley Den/9 14.0 1.00 14
    145 145 0 WR Lance Long KC/4 13.1 1.00 13.1
    146 150 4 WR Sam Hurd Dal/4 11.4 1.10 12.5
    147 147 0 WR Nate Hughes Jac/9 11.7 1.05 12.3
    148 151 3 WR Wallace Wright Car/6 11.4 1.00 11.4
    149 148 -1 WR Roscoe Parrish Buf/6 11.6 0.90 10.4
    150 149 -1 WR Taylor Price NE/5 11.5 0.90 10.4
    151 153 2 WR Danny Amendola StL/9 9.0 1.15 10.4
    152 146 -6 WR Brad Smith NYJ/7 12.0 0.85 10.2
    153 155 2 WR Brett Swain GB/10 8.8 1.10 9.7
    154 152 -2 WR Derrick Williams Det/7 10.9 0.85 9.3
    155 158 3 WR Devin Moore Ind/7 7.6 1.15 8.7
    156 154 -2 WR Demetrius Williams Bal/8 8.9 0.95 8.4
    157 157 0 WR Carlton Mitchell Cle/8 8.8 0.95 8.3
    158 156 -2 WR Rashied Davis Chi/8 8.8 0.85 7.5
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