Buy Low, Sell High - Preseason Edition - QBs
By Sigmund Bloom
August 30th, 2010

This preseason edition of Buy Low/Sell High will focus on changes in momentum of player value that you need to take advantage of to dominate your draft.

Buy Low

Philip Rivers - Maybe we have been a little too harsh on Rivers with the loss his #1 receiver and left tackle looming. Ryan Mathews looks like he'll restore the running game, and Rivers isn't missing a beat with Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd picking up the slack. He won't be top five, but he won't fall out of the top 10 either, and the safety of plugging him in every week is underrated. It's getting hard to pass on him in the fifth.

Ben Roethlisberger - Few are picking up on how good Roethlisberger has looked in camp and the lack of follow-through on the idea that the Steelers would become a more balanced offense this year. He should be a top 10 QB again upon his return and he is almost never going off the board in the top 12 QBs. Exploit that fact if you go QBBC.

Matthew Stafford - The Lions offense could be the newest fantasy juggernaut. Stafford's gunslinger mentality plus a defense that will dig holes for them to climb out of plus new weapons like Jahvid Best and Tony Scheffler could make this offense full throttle and fun to watch - as long as you own part of it. The Lions open with all three of their division opponents along with Philadelphia, and St. Louis, so you'll know whether you have the anchor of your QBBC pretty quickly, and you'll get him outside of the top 12 QBs.

Vince Young - More attention was paid to VY's horns-down incident than his improvement this offseason. He was basically a top 10 QB for the part of the season he played last year and he should pick up where he left off. Always available outside of the top 15 QBs.

Kyle Orton - Money talks, and Pat Bowlen just shouted to everyone that he loves his starting QB. He is so much more comfortable in the McDaniels offense, and he'll likely throw about 35 times a game. He should be around 4000 yards and approach 25 touchdowns as long as he stays healthy. Available outside of top 20 in some leagues.

Sell High - QB

Jay Cutler - The Bears offensive line has looked atrocious and Cutler is reverting to bad habits as a reaction. This is starting to look like the third flop in a row for Mike Martz and it just feels like it's going to be hard to trust Cutler in any given week after his interception orgy last year now and admission that interceptions are a cost of doing Martz's business in the passing game. He's going in the top 10 QBs, but he shouldn't be.

Brett Favre - No Sidney Rice plus a gimpy ankle for Favre are probably enough to avoid him at his current ADP. Favre was a nightmare playing hurt late in 2008 for the New York Jets, and with Percy Harvin's headaches and Bernard Berrian's durability and preseason performance, the WR corps could disintegrate quickly. He's being taken in the top 12 QBs on the coattails of numbers from 2009 that he can not possibly reproduce.

Alex Smith - The QB saga in Arizona has overshadowed a so-so preseason for Alex Smith. A lot of his production came when the 49ers were buried at halftime and had open up the offense. I have very little confidence in Smith to be a reliable producer if the defense and running game in San Francisco can do the heavy lifting. I would not be taking him as a QB2 except as one of the last one or two off the board.

As always, thanks for reading. Questions, comments and suggestions are always welcome to bloom@footballguys.com.

© 2010 Footballguys - All Rights Reserved