Overvalued Players - Week 8

  Updated 10/29 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 250 forward, a look at the top 250 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. With the bye weeks starting, some of these players would be much worse plays if not for the good players off this week. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.


Matt Schaub

  • Top 250 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 12
  • Difference: -6

Schaub has been on fire. He has been passing at will. There are a could of concerns this week for the Texans passer. Houston meets the Buffalo Bills this week. The Bills are horrible against the run and most teams run more than they pass versus Buffalo. The Bills were able to pick off Jake Delhomme thrice last week. Also, keep an eye on the Andre Johnson injury. Since it was a "lung contusion", Johnson is not certain to play. Discount Schaub's upside if his star receiver misses the game, or even is limited.

Brett Favre

  • Top 250 ranking: 13
  • Weekly ranking: 17
  • Difference: -4

Oh my, what a game this will be as Favre travels back to Green Bay to face the Packers. Green Bay has a good defense and will be wanting to show well against their former teammate. The excitement is building as the game grows closer. Unless you do not have many good options, it might be best to use another quarterback this week.

Joe Flacco

  • Top 250 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 11
  • Difference: -1

This ranking would be much worse if not for the several good teams on bye this week. The Ravens host the tough Denver Broncos in a game that is important to both teams. The Broncos are playing great defense and will pose a big test for the young passer this week. Expect Denver to try to limit the passes to Derrick Mason and make Mark Clayton and Kelly Washington beat them. This has the makings of a tough defensive struggle.

Running Back

Michael Turner

  • Top 250 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 22
  • Difference: -14

Turner and the Falcons go to New Orleans to meet the Saints this week. The Saints defense has been great this season. Even though the numbers may not seem so, New Orleans limited the Dolphin running game last week. This will be a stiff test for the Atlanta rushing game.

Adrian Peterson

  • Top 250 ranking: 1
  • Weekly ranking: 4
  • Difference: -3

Peterson is the best running back in the NFL, period. There is no debate. But, the schedule makers have made things difficult on the Vikings. Minnesota has faced the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers the past two weeks. Now, they travel to Green Bay to face their division rival, the Packers. Green Bay has a good defense versus the run and will pose a good test for the star rusher.

Ronnie Brown

  • Top 250 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 15
  • Difference: -10

Brown has been surprisingly strong this season. The Wildcat offense has been just as effective this season as last. Miami has a tough game against the Jets in the Meadowlands this week. New York will be looking to settle the score after the loss in Miami a few weeks ago. Expect Rex Ryan to have a better gameplan to stop Brown and the Wildcat this week.

DeAngelo Williams

  • Top 250 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 16
  • Difference: -9

Williams, and the Panther running game, have played much better the past few weeks. Williams seems to be back in 2009 form. The Panthers are struggling in the passing game so opposing defenses focus on stopping the run. Carolina plays the Arizona Cardinals this week. The Cardinals have a great rush defense and will look to make Carolina, and Jake Delhomme, beat them through the air.

Wide Receiver

Brandon Marshall

  • Top 250 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 14
  • Difference: -6

The Broncos travel to face the Ravens this week. Baltimore needs a win this week and is coming off a bye. The Ravens have a good defense and this will be a great test for the undefeated Broncos. Quarterback Kyle Orton throws the ball to the open receiver and does not force anything. Baltimore will look to take away Marshall and make the other receivers beat them.

Andre Johnson

  • Top 250 ranking: 2
  • Weekly ranking: 11
  • Difference: -9

Johnson is a premier receiver in the NFL. He suffered a nasty lung contusion last week against the 49ers. This injury may limit his production against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are weak against the run, leaving their opponents to run often and effectively. The Texans will not have to throw much to win. Fantasy owners should still start Johnson if he plays, but expectations should be tempered.

Steve Smith (NYG)

  • Top 250 ranking: 18
  • Weekly ranking: 21
  • Difference: -3

Smith is still Eli Manning's favorite clutch receiver, but he is not getting the looks down the field. Smith and Mario Manningham are now sharing targets with Nicks and Hixon, who are more than capable. Against the Philadelphia Eagles this week, Smith will still be startable as a fantasy WR2, but there is little upside.

DeSean Jackson

  • Top 250 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 10
  • Difference: -3

Jackson had a great game on Monday Night against the Washington Redskins. He was able to score twice on long plays. His speed makes him dangerous every time Jackson touches the ball. This week, the Eagles face the tough and aggressive New York Giant defense. The Giants will look to limit the production of Donovan McNabb's primary receiver.

Tight End

Vernon Davis

  • Top 250 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -8

Davis had a career game last week, catching three touchdowns all in the second half against the Houston Texans. This week, the 49ers meet the athletic Indianapolis Colt defense. The Colts are very good against the pass, including the defense of tight ends. Davis' ranking would be much lower if not for the players on bye this week.

Brent Celek

  • Top 250 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 12
  • Difference: -2

Celek was producing better numbers with Kevin Kolb under center. McNabb seems to miss Celek when he is open. The big game against the New York Giants will be one that is tough for Celek to produce good fantasy numbers.


Lawrence Tynes

  • Top 250 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -10

The Philadelphia Eagles have a stout defense. This week's game will be hard fought and could be a low scoring defensive contest. There may not be many field goal opportunities for Tynes.

Mason Crosby

  • Top 250 ranking: 4
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: -5

In another tough division game, the Packers will not be able to score at ease against the Vikings like they did versus the Browns last week. Crosby is a good kicker, but is not a great play this week. He is still startable, but do not expect a big fantasy game.


Baltimore Ravens

  • Top 250 ranking: 4
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -14

The Ravens are a good defense, but have faced a difficult schedule this season. They meet a very efficient Kyle Orton this week. Orton has throw just one interception on the year, a "Hail Mary" pass. The Bronco offensive line has been playing well and limiting sacks. Baltimore is not a great play this week against the undefeated Denver offense.

Green Bay Packers

  • Top 250 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 11
  • Difference: - 4

The Packer defense has played very well this season, causing turnovers and getting pressure on the passer. Former teammate Brett Favre has not taken many chances this year and will look to have a big game against his former team ... especially in Green Bay. This might be the week to look elsewhere for a fantasy defense, especially with the Cardinals on many waiver wires.