IDP Buy Low / Sell High - Week 8
Updated 10/29 by Anthony Borbely, Exclusive for Footballguys.com
This will be a weekly feature to assist IDP owners in creating deals in their leagues. In theory, players listed as "Buy Low" candidates should have a perceived value that is lower than they merit while the "Sell High" players are overvalued. Use this knowledge to offer viable trades to your leaguemates.
- DL Mario Williams, Houston Texans: Williams is a player I never expected to write about as a buy low for IDP dynasty leaguers. After all, he is just 24 years old and has 26 sacks in the last two years. This year has been a different story as Williams only has three sacks in seven games. While he has not played as well as he did in the last two years, much of the problem with Williams is that he has battled a groin injury for a few weeks and does not have the explosion that he is accustomed too. I have seen fantasy owners wondering why Williams has such poor numbers and many do not even mention his health. As far as buying low, the cost will not be cheap, but cost is relative to value and if you can acquire a player like Williams for a high cost, but below his true value, then I say go for it. I would think most owners will not want to trade Williams, but some impatient owners might.
- LB Ernie Sims, Detroit Lions: Sims has not played well at all this year and he did not play well last year. In watching him, I don't think this is related to talent because he seems to fly all over the field and can make tackles when he has the opportunity to. The thing I notice is that he always seems to be out of position and in most of those cases, Sims overruns plays. He simply does not have as many tackle opportunities as he should and it is all on him. Right now, he is battling an injury and has lost playing time to rookie DeAndre Levy. This situation is hard to analyze because the coaches rarely discuss injuries and Sims is obviously not 100% healthy. I am not as big on Sims as I used to be, but he does have talent and his value is at rock bottom. Players like that are well worth taking a chance on because they can be had for a dirt-cheap price.
- LB Tavares Gooden, Baltimore Ravens: Gooden is seeing more playing time and he responded last week with a career-high eight solos. Despite that, he is still very much under the radar and generally is just sitting on the benches of his fantasy owners. Gooden is not going to consistently put up big tackle numbers as long as Ray Lewis is in Baltimore, but his long-term value is pretty high in my opinion. I would keep an eye on him all year and look to strike as soon as he disappears for a game or two.
- DB Richard Marshall, Carolina Panthers: Marshall has been an enigma this year. After he put up huge tackle numbers playing only in the nickel packages, many expected him to be one of the leaders in tackles among DBs with full-time snaps. Not only has that not happened, Marshall is actually putting up far fewer tackles playing full time than he did as a nickel corner. There is really no explanation for this. But there is no denying Marshall's talent. He has every skill needed to be a dominant corner and a stud IDP. His value is low and I am a believer in buying low on underachieving players with talent if I am sold on them being studs for the long-term. Marshall fits the bill and now is the time to make a deal for him.
- DB Bob Sanders, Indianapolis Colts: Sanders is one of the most injury prone players to play in recent memory, but when he does play, he puts up stud DB numbers. The tough part is determining if you are willing to hold a roster spot for the handful of games Sanders annually misses. This depends on the league and roster size, but as a rule, I will usually take a chance on a stud if it does not cause me a hardship elsewhere on my roster. I just like to collect studs and a stud like Sanders who plays half the year is usually better than some middling talent who is at the end of your bench. Even if you aren't like me in that respect, try and make a deal for Sanders anyway then sell high when he lights up the stat sheet.
- DL Patrick Kerney, Seattle Seahawks: Kerney has been a solid DL for a long time and this year he has four sacks in the five games he has played. Kerney is another player who always seems to be hurt and at age 33, the injuries take longer to heal than they used to. This year, there is a lack of quality fantasy defensive linemen and even an older player like Kerney has value. I would probably hold if I had a contender, but for teams who are rebuilding, the time has arrived to move Kerney.
- LB Eric Barton, Cleveland Browns: Barton is in a position to put up huge tackle numbers for the rest of the season. He plays for a team with a terrible offense and the their defense can't stop anyone. That is a recipe for a lot of tackle opportunities. Barton is a player I would keep if I had a contender, but he is a classic sell high for rebuilding teams because he is an average talent in a great situation and the future situation is impossible to predict.
- LB Antonio Pierce, New York Giants: After having fewer than 80 solos in each of the last two seasons, Pierce is putting up better than expected tackle numbers this year. He has seven solos in the last two games. I am not one who expects this to continue. Pierce is a decent LB4 type and those types of players are not difficult to replace. It's hard to say what kind of return you can get if you trade Pierce, but he is not enough of a difference maker to tie up a roster spot. The main thing is that I see his numbers dropping as the year goes on.
- DB Thomas DeCoud, Atlanta Falcons: DeCoud is suddenly in the top ten fantasy DBs and with him being a younger player, it is not easy to want to sell high. But DeCoud is playing free safety and that is not normally a great spot to put up strong fantasy numbers. Although rookie William Moore is out for the year with an injury, he is likely to compete for playing time at one of the safety spots next year. I am not all that high on DeCoud's talent and that is the top reason I would be looking to sell. Sometimes we all make mistakes in judging younger players, but you have to follow your instincts if you are convinced you are right.
- DB Abram Elam, Cleveland Browns: Elam is in the same situation as Eric Barton, a middling talent who is benefiting from playing for a bad team. His numbers are a reflection of how bad the Browns are. Basically, do the same thing for Elam that I wrote above for Barton. Hold if you are a contender and sell if you are rebuilding. I would consider selling Elam even if I had a contending team as long as I had solid depth at DB. With Barton, I would hold because LBs are much tougher to find.