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Overvalued Players - Week 3

  Posted 9/18 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com


This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 250 forward, a look at the top 250 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.

Quarterback

Tony Romo

  • Top 200 ranking: 1
  • Weekly ranking: 7
  • Difference: -6

Romo and the Cowboys face a tough Packer defense. In addition, coming off the epic game Monday night, Dallas might have a little letdown. The Packers have a strong defense with good defensive backs and get pressure on the passer. Fantasy owners should still start Jessica Simpson's boyfriend, but have reduced expectations.

Peyton Manning

  • Top 200 ranking: 4
  • Weekly ranking: 8
  • Difference: -4

Manning still looks uncomfortable in the pocket behind a line struggling with injuries. He led the Colts to a come from behind win versus the Bears but still did not look like "the old" Peyton. The Colts face the Jaguars in a tough division tilt that Jacksonville needs to win. The Jaguars know how to play Manning and should be able to limit his effectiveness.

Ben Roethlisberger

  • Top 200 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 15
  • Difference: -8

Big Ben is an efficient passer. He is battling a shoulder injury. This week, Ben and the Steelers face their instate rival the Eagles. This should be a typical Steelers game where they try to control the game on the ground. The Eagles have very good cornerbacks and should make things tough for Holmes and Ward to make the big play.

Running Back

Edgerrin James

  • Top 200 ranking: 17
  • Weekly ranking: 28
  • Difference: -11

Arizona faces its third straight soft team to start the season. The strong play of Kurt Warner and the passing game has hindered James' production. In addition, rookie Tim Hightower is getting the touchdowns. Edge will continue to grind out yardage, but the weakness of the Redskin defensive backs will lead Warner to have another huge game at the expense of the run game.

Larry Johnson

  • Top 200 ranking: 13
  • Weekly ranking: 22
  • Difference: -9

Johnson still wants to carry the ball over twenty times a game, but the Chiefs have been down early. The unsettled situation at the quarterback position only makes it easier for teams to key on Johnson. Larry Johnson seems to get better when he carries the ball a lot. This week against the Falcons will be intriguing to see the workload Priest Holmes' former backup gets. He has been vocal about his displeasure in his workload. Also, we learned this week that Johnson will not get goal line carries.

LaDainian Tomlinson

  • Top 200 ranking: 4
  • Weekly ranking: 12
  • Difference: -8

Tomlinson was the top pick in many fantasy drafts. He has disappointed due to a nagging toe injury that he claims does not bother him. The injury has led to fewer touches and a reduced role. The stud back says his toe is getting better so he might be back to form by midseason.

Steven Jackson

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 10
  • Difference: -5

Steven Jackson has not enjoyed a good season. With the poor offensive line play, the Rams have been very ineffective running the ball. Jackson has been active in the passing game which offsets some of the disappointment. The Rams face the Seattle Seahawks in a "must win" situation for both teams.

Wide Receiver

Braylon Edwards

  • Top 200 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 29
  • Difference: -23

Many had high hopes for Edwards coming into the season. He has a great rapport with Derek Anderson. But, the Brown offense has looked out of synch. Edwards looks like he is still feeling the effects of missing much of the preseason with injury. This week, the Browns face the stout Raven defense in a pivotal game for both teams.

Marvin Harrison

  • Top 200 ranking: 36
  • Weekly ranking: 51
  • Difference: -15

Harrison proclaimed himself healthy and back from injury. Manning has not locked onto the veteran as much as he has in the past. One reason for this is could be that it appears as though Marvin Harrison has lost his explosive ability. With a tough divisional game against the desperate Jaguars, expect another tough game for Harrison to produce fantasy stats.

Torry Holt

  • Top 200 ranking: 13
  • Weekly ranking: 19
  • Difference: -6

Holt is suffering from the effects of playing on a bad offense. Bulger is under constant pressure and the running game is nonexistent. There is no WR2 to speak of. Dane Looker does not strike fear into the hearts of defenders. This allows good defenses to double-team Holt. This week's game versus the Seahawks will be another tough matchup.

Santonio Holmes

  • Top 200 ranking: 16
  • Weekly ranking: 24
  • Difference: -8

Holmes has been impacted by the Steelers strong running game. The shoulder injury to Roethlisberger also limits the effectiveness of the deep routes employed by Holmes. The Steelers face a strong defensive backfield this week. The Eagles signed Samuel to help out. In addition, the Eagles will be fired up after the loss to the Cowboys on Monday night.

Tight End

Anthony Fasano

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 21
  • Difference: -10

Fasano had a HUGE game against the Jets in weeks one only to be invisible last week. This game, the Dolphins face the Patriots. The Miami offense cannot make plays and the Patriots will not have a tough time limiting the effectiveness of Fasano. The ex-Cowboy is one of the best receivers for Miami. The best chance at good production may come in garbage time.

Owen Daniels

  • Top 200 ranking: 17
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: -8

Daniels had a weak game to start the year. The Texans played a tough Steeler defense. After the Ike-imposed bye, Houston faces another stout defense in the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are very good on defense and can stop Daniels from having a big game.

Kicker

Mason Crosby

  • Top 200 ranking: 2
  • Weekly ranking: 14
  • Difference: -12

Crosby is benefiting from the strong play of Aaron Rodgers. But, the second-year kicker may not get a ton of scoring opportunities against the Cowboys this week. The Cowboy defense is improved and will pose a threat to hold the Packer offense in check, especially if Ryan Grant is still ailing.

Josh Scobee

  • Top 200 ranking: 9
  • Weekly ranking: 25
  • Difference: -16

Scobee moved down from K4 to K9 this week with the poor play of the Jaguar offense. Garrard and the running game need to turn things around for Scobee to be a factor. This week, the Jaguars face the Colts in a tough division matchup. Scobee should be on the fantasy bench until the Jaguar offense can turn things around.

Defense

Dallas Cowboys

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 16
  • Difference: -11

The Cowboys were downgraded on the Top 250 from DEF3 to DEF5 after getting lit up by the receiver-starved Eagles. The Cowboys also will be without hard-hitting Roy Williams for a few games. This week, the Cowboy defense faces a strong test from the Green Bay Packer passing attack led by Aaron Rodgers.

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 20
  • Difference: -9

The Jaguar defense is still a good defense. The offense is not helping them out much. This week, the Jaguars face Peyton Manning and the Colt offense in the dome. This will be a good test for the young Jaguar defense because Manning does not turn the ball over much.