The Profit - Week 3
Posted 9/18 by Mike Brown, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Let's get to the picks!
ATLANTA (-5.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
Normally I wouldn't feel great about taking Atlanta when you're giving points.
But when they're going up against a team down to its THIRD best passing option,
no offensive line, very little defense, and a disgruntled star halfback...well,
I can sleep a little easier on it. PICK: Falcons
BUFFALO (-9.5) vs. OAKLAND
Is Buffalo's offense explosive enough to carry what is getting dangerously close
to a double digit line? I'm not so sure about that one. But with McFadden now
dinged up and the passing game still looking pathetic, I guess it's time to
find out how legit these Bills are. PICK: Bills
CHICAGO (-3) vs. TAMPA BAY
I just think Tampa is a better team, that's all. PICK: Bucs
DALLAS (-3) at GREEN BAY
Dallas is the only road favorite this week. If Brett Favre were still on Green
Bay, I don't think the Cowboys would be favored. And that's downright ridiculous,
because Aaron Rodgers at this point is showing everyone that he's as good or
better than Favre right now. PICK: Packers
DENVER (-5.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
This is the week where Denver's shortcomings are exposed big-time. Whatever
that means. I can hope. PICK: Saints
MINNESOTA (-3.5) vs. CAROLINA
Here's a little clue my grandfather taught me about sports gambling. He said,
"Mike - never ever lay points with Gus Frerotte." Now, my grandfather
died in 1992 and never heard of Gus Frerotte. But it was THAT obvious, even
to him. PICK: Panthers
NEW ENGLAND (-12.5) vs. MIAMI
What is this, 2007? Let's take it easy with these double digit lines for the
Patriots until they actually blow up on offense once. PICK: Dolphins
NEW YORK GIANTS (-13.5) vs. CINCINNATI
While I believe with every fiber of my being that the Giants should blow out
the Bengals by about thirty points, I still think this looks a little bit too
high for my liking. New York has a dynamic offense, a still-outstanding defense,
and the Bengals are perhaps the worst team in football. Not to mention, the
game is in the Meadowlands. Alright fine, I've convinced myself. But I'm not
happy about it. PICK: Giants
PHILADELPHIA (-3) vs. PITTSBURGH
The difference this week is that if DeSean Jackson (or anyone, for that matter)
leaves the ball on the turf for even a moment, it's going for six the other
way. Pittsburgh's defense looks very legitimate, and I have my concerns about
McNabb staying upright for the entire game. PICK: Steelers
SAN FRANCISCO (-4) vs. DETROIT
If recent history is any indication, the Niners will come out and smoke Detroit
for 21 first quarter points, slowly let them back into the game over the next
quarter, the teams will trade punches in the third, and then the Lions will
somehow give away 78 more points in the fourth quarter. I just crunched the
numbers, and it results in a 129-74 win for the Niners. That's more than four.
PICK: Niners
SEATTLE (-9.5) vs. SAINT LOUIS
I've got news for everyone. The Seahawks as presently constructed are not a
good team at all. I know, stop the presses right? So if it's so obvious, then
why are they laying almost ten points? I realize the Rams are putrid. But are
they so much worse than Seattle? Nine and a half points worse? I'm not buying
it. PICK: Rams
WASHINGTON (-3) vs. ARIZONA
This is probably the toughest game to call this week. Washington's tough because
are they the team that looked clueless against the Giants, or the team that
blew up in the fourth quarter against the Saints? Is Arizona a legit playoff
and, dare I say, Super Bowl contender? Or are they just the best of a very bad
NFC West lot? I'm going to the final home game at Yankee Stadium this Sunday
so I want the apocalypse to hold off a little while. Therefore, the Cardinals
won't open up at 3-0. PICK: Redskins
BEST BETS
BALTIMORE (-2.5) vs. CLEVELAND
Baltimore looked pretty good in Week 1 against the Bengals. But I think the
FBG staff could come up with a decent enough squad to take on the Bengals and
keep it respectable. Cleveland, meanwhile, has lost twice. However, those losses
are to Dallas and Pittsburgh. If you're going to lose to two teams, those are
a couple of good ones. I think Cleveland comes to play this one and steals a
road win from a rookie QB. PICK: Browns
INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
I've got news for you. The Colts minus Bob Sanders are a disaster waiting to
happen. Certain teams can withstand injuries to key players and still succeed
(Chargers, Patriots). Certain players can be lost by a team for a time and the
team has adequate replacements (Denver, Carolina). But perhaps no player means
more to his team than does Sanders to the Colts. Yeah, Jacksonville's line is
still decimated by injuries. So?!? The Jags might put up 400 yards of offense
in this one. PICK: Jaguars
TENNESSEE (-5) vs. HOUSTON
Last we saw of the Texans, they were allowing Hines Ward to metaphorically punch
them in the nads. Tennessee, meanwhile, has done nothing but play like possibly
the most complete team in the AFC. PICK: Titans
SAN DIEGO (-9) vs. NEW YORK JETS
Will the Chargers use last Sunday's debacle as a rallying cry, or will it sink
their hopes of turning the season around. I tend to believe the former. Tomlinson
or not, the Chargers are still one of the league's better teams while the Jets
are in a second class. Favre helps, and he alone makes them capable of beating
anyone on a given night. And yeah, the San Diego pass defense has looked, hmm...what's
another word for 'the worst unit in history'. Still, I think San Diego's offense
proves to be far too much here and this one is over early. PICK: Chargers
PICK OF THE WEEK: San Diego Chargers
LAST WEEK
- OVERALL: 9-5-1 (64%)
- BEST BETS: 1-2-1 (33%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 1-0 (100%)
SEASON TOTALS
- OVERALL: 18-12-1 (60%)
- BEST BETS: 4-3-1 (57%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 1-1 (50%)
