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The Profit - Week 3

  Posted 9/18 by Mike Brown, Exclusive to Footballguys.com


Let's get to the picks!


ATLANTA (-5.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
Normally I wouldn't feel great about taking Atlanta when you're giving points. But when they're going up against a team down to its THIRD best passing option, no offensive line, very little defense, and a disgruntled star halfback...well, I can sleep a little easier on it. PICK: Falcons

BUFFALO (-9.5) vs. OAKLAND
Is Buffalo's offense explosive enough to carry what is getting dangerously close to a double digit line? I'm not so sure about that one. But with McFadden now dinged up and the passing game still looking pathetic, I guess it's time to find out how legit these Bills are. PICK: Bills

CHICAGO (-3) vs. TAMPA BAY
I just think Tampa is a better team, that's all. PICK: Bucs

DALLAS (-3) at GREEN BAY
Dallas is the only road favorite this week. If Brett Favre were still on Green Bay, I don't think the Cowboys would be favored. And that's downright ridiculous, because Aaron Rodgers at this point is showing everyone that he's as good or better than Favre right now. PICK: Packers

DENVER (-5.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
This is the week where Denver's shortcomings are exposed big-time. Whatever that means. I can hope. PICK: Saints

MINNESOTA (-3.5) vs. CAROLINA
Here's a little clue my grandfather taught me about sports gambling. He said, "Mike - never ever lay points with Gus Frerotte." Now, my grandfather died in 1992 and never heard of Gus Frerotte. But it was THAT obvious, even to him. PICK: Panthers

NEW ENGLAND (-12.5) vs. MIAMI
What is this, 2007? Let's take it easy with these double digit lines for the Patriots until they actually blow up on offense once. PICK: Dolphins

NEW YORK GIANTS (-13.5) vs. CINCINNATI
While I believe with every fiber of my being that the Giants should blow out the Bengals by about thirty points, I still think this looks a little bit too high for my liking. New York has a dynamic offense, a still-outstanding defense, and the Bengals are perhaps the worst team in football. Not to mention, the game is in the Meadowlands. Alright fine, I've convinced myself. But I'm not happy about it. PICK: Giants

PHILADELPHIA (-3) vs. PITTSBURGH
The difference this week is that if DeSean Jackson (or anyone, for that matter) leaves the ball on the turf for even a moment, it's going for six the other way. Pittsburgh's defense looks very legitimate, and I have my concerns about McNabb staying upright for the entire game. PICK: Steelers

SAN FRANCISCO (-4) vs. DETROIT
If recent history is any indication, the Niners will come out and smoke Detroit for 21 first quarter points, slowly let them back into the game over the next quarter, the teams will trade punches in the third, and then the Lions will somehow give away 78 more points in the fourth quarter. I just crunched the numbers, and it results in a 129-74 win for the Niners. That's more than four. PICK: Niners

SEATTLE (-9.5) vs. SAINT LOUIS
I've got news for everyone. The Seahawks as presently constructed are not a good team at all. I know, stop the presses right? So if it's so obvious, then why are they laying almost ten points? I realize the Rams are putrid. But are they so much worse than Seattle? Nine and a half points worse? I'm not buying it. PICK: Rams

WASHINGTON (-3) vs. ARIZONA
This is probably the toughest game to call this week. Washington's tough because are they the team that looked clueless against the Giants, or the team that blew up in the fourth quarter against the Saints? Is Arizona a legit playoff and, dare I say, Super Bowl contender? Or are they just the best of a very bad NFC West lot? I'm going to the final home game at Yankee Stadium this Sunday so I want the apocalypse to hold off a little while. Therefore, the Cardinals won't open up at 3-0. PICK: Redskins


BEST BETS

BALTIMORE (-2.5) vs. CLEVELAND
Baltimore looked pretty good in Week 1 against the Bengals. But I think the FBG staff could come up with a decent enough squad to take on the Bengals and keep it respectable. Cleveland, meanwhile, has lost twice. However, those losses are to Dallas and Pittsburgh. If you're going to lose to two teams, those are a couple of good ones. I think Cleveland comes to play this one and steals a road win from a rookie QB. PICK: Browns

INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
I've got news for you. The Colts minus Bob Sanders are a disaster waiting to happen. Certain teams can withstand injuries to key players and still succeed (Chargers, Patriots). Certain players can be lost by a team for a time and the team has adequate replacements (Denver, Carolina). But perhaps no player means more to his team than does Sanders to the Colts. Yeah, Jacksonville's line is still decimated by injuries. So?!? The Jags might put up 400 yards of offense in this one. PICK: Jaguars

TENNESSEE (-5) vs. HOUSTON
Last we saw of the Texans, they were allowing Hines Ward to metaphorically punch them in the nads. Tennessee, meanwhile, has done nothing but play like possibly the most complete team in the AFC. PICK: Titans

SAN DIEGO (-9) vs. NEW YORK JETS
Will the Chargers use last Sunday's debacle as a rallying cry, or will it sink their hopes of turning the season around. I tend to believe the former. Tomlinson or not, the Chargers are still one of the league's better teams while the Jets are in a second class. Favre helps, and he alone makes them capable of beating anyone on a given night. And yeah, the San Diego pass defense has looked, hmm...what's another word for 'the worst unit in history'. Still, I think San Diego's offense proves to be far too much here and this one is over early. PICK: Chargers

PICK OF THE WEEK: San Diego Chargers


LAST WEEK

  • OVERALL: 9-5-1 (64%)
  • BEST BETS: 1-2-1 (33%)
  • PICK OF WEEK: 1-0 (100%)

SEASON TOTALS

  • OVERALL: 18-12-1 (60%)
  • BEST BETS: 4-3-1 (57%)
  • PICK OF WEEK: 1-1 (50%)