The Profit - Week 1
Posted 9/3 by Mike Brown, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
...misnomer of all-time
So here we go for another season. Kudos to those of you who have done well the last few years while I hovered around the .500 mark. (For the record, anytime you're woefully under .500 you can use 'hovered around the .500 mark' to avoid lying while sounding much better than you really are.)
It was another rough season in 2007, which I mostly blame on lacking a strong ability to pick these games. If not for that, I'd basically be awesome at this. For those of you who are not hovering around the .500 mark, especially those of you well below it, perhaps it's time to BET EVEN MORE MONEY! This way, you make up for your losses in previous seasons AND the law of averages means you are totally TOTALLY DUE for a bunch of consecutive wins!
Good luck to all, even though we all know this is about mad skills and has nothing to do with luck.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5) vs. WASHINGTON
Coming of the Super Bowl victory, the Giants appear to be a very different team than the one that lined up in February. I can see this game turning into a shoot-out and a lot of passing offense to go around. The more points are scored, the greater the chance that it becomes a touchdown or more victory. And since I think the Giants are better, and they're home, that makes the decision for me. PICK: Giants
PHILADELPHIA (-7) vs. SAINT LOUIS
Seven points may seem a bit high for a team missing several key weapons offensively. Just goes to show you how bad the Rams really are. PICK: Eagles
NEW YORK JETS (-3) at MIAMI
Whenever a team adds a brand-new superstar quarterback, expectations for the team always go through the roof. The fans get into a frenzy, the media blows it all out of proportion, and the player struggles to adapt to his new environment in the early going. Hell, you also have to weigh the fact that he was brought into training camp so late that it'd be tough for him to know the entire playbook by now, and there will definitely be some growing pains for the first few weeks. It's for these reasons that I don't think you can really trust Chad Pennington right from the outset, at least not this week. PICK: Jets
NEW ENGLAND (-16.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
The Patriots closed out the season with their offensive juggernaut looking like a shell of its former self. OK so it was still better than everyone else, but I'm not about to lay more than two touchdowns considering Brady may have a cracked foot and several key players appear banged-up. Not to mention, this Kansas City team is really making strides. There's two or three potential all-stars in there. Sincerely, Lou Brown. PICK: Chiefs
PITTSBURGH (-7) vs. HOUSTON
The Steelers are a very good team, don't get me wrong. But this year's team just has the feel of a very boring 9-7. Don't ask me why, because I'm basing it off of nothing scientific at all. The Texans, meanwhile, are on the rise. I couldn't tell you who is going to do most of the running for them, but I can tell you that whoever does run the ball for them will do it very well. PICK: Texans
BALTIMORE (Pk) vs. CINCINNATI
I realize the Bengals are basically in shambles right now and that they aren't to be trusted one bit, but that being said I can't very well back the rookie QB/rookie RB combo in their first NFL start can I? PICK: Bengals
DETROIT (-3) at ATLANTA
I'm not big on Matt Ryan long-term as an NFL player anyway, so why would I be high on him in the first start of his career? In other news, you will not be able to trade for Calvin Johnson once this game is played. PICK: Lions
JACKSONVILLE (-3) at TENNESSEE
Jacksonville gets going on the right foot against a Titans team that lacks the necessary playmakers to match the Jags scoring prowess. It will, however, be interesting to watch Chris Johnson turn into Maurice Jones-Drew right before our eyes. PICK: Jaguars
DALLAS (-4) at CLEVELAND
The trendy thing to do in the NFL is to assume that if a team improves itself from one year to the next, it'll improve again that year to the following one. I've tried to refrain from completely jumping on board for the Browns even though I do think they'll win a weak AFC North. However, Dallas is just that much better. It's usually not wise to go with road dogs, especially early on, but when have I ever been accused of being wise? PICK: Cowboys
ARIZONA (-2.5) at SAN FRANCISCO
In a game sure to feature about 800 yards of passing offense and roughly 74 turnovers, I think the Niners defense will make enough plays to hold off Arizona's passing attack. Or maybe not. Seriously, there's never been a more coin flip game. PICK: Niners
GREEN BAY (-3) vs. MINNESOTA
This is the game where Minnesota will assert itself as the dominant force in the NFC North this season. I like Green Bay enough and I think they'll be in the mix for a playoff spot, but the Vikings are going to send a loud message at Lambeau Field this Monday night. And it won't be Aaron Rodgers' or Ted Thompson's or Mike McCarthy's fault. It's just that the Vikings are that good. Believe it. PICK: Vikings
DENVER (-3) at OAKLAND
As a Charger fan, my rooting interest can't be much higher. My obvious hope is that Ed Harris redirects the missile from Candlestick over to Oakland so we can finally be rid of these Star Wars Raider fans AND Skeletor all at once! PICK: Broncos
BEST BETS
NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
The New Orleans offense was already one of the league's elite units in the league last year. So what did they do this offseason? Well, their running backs got healthy, Robert Meachem got better, they signed Jeremy Shockey, and they're poised to put up the best offensive numbers in the league by a large margin. Tampa? Well, they almost got Brett Favre and added a washed-up Warrick Dunn. PICK: Saints
BUFFALO (Pk) vs. SEATTLE
Buffalo = on the rise. Seattle = not so much. PICK: Bills
SAN DIEGO (-10) vs. CAROLINA
The beat-up Chargers are in no position to be laying ten points against many teams, let alone one that made a number of reinforcements in the offseason. Carolina could very well win this game outright, and they certainly should be able to run the ball well enough to keep it closer than ten points. PICK: Panthers
INDIANAPOLIS (-9) vs. CHICAGO
I'm only half joking when I say that Peyton Manning playing lefty is better than Kyle Orton. PICK: Colts
PICK OF THE WEEK: Buffalo Bills (yes, seriously)
