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The Bloom 100

Sigmund Bloom runs down his Top 100 rookies for the 2013 season.

Welcome to another installment of the Bloom 100. This year’s class should make you feel very good if you own mid-late 1sts or any second-round picks. Like the draft itself, what this group lacks in elite talent, it makes up for with outstanding depth. There are layers of talent at each offensive skill position that will give us intriguing options to choose from all the way to the end of our rookie drafts.

The Bloom 100 is ranked with the following type of dynasty fantasy football league in mind:

  • Full IDP lineups including DT and CB
  • PPR, start 3 WR
  • Deep lineups and rosters

Of course, depending on your league scoring and settings, the order can change, but the tier breaks and rankings within position should be good to use across all league formats.

Tier 1

This tier is deep and very level. Destination and draft slot will probably shuffle the order, especially among the top three running backs. Trading out of the top 3-5 is a good deal if you can stay in the top 10 or so.

1. Tavon Austin WR - Rare player with elite quicks and speed plus an aggressive mindset in the open field. Could be a 80-100 catch player from day one. Some doubt his 175 lb frame’s ability to hold up, but I don’t buy it. Team that takes him will plan on featuring him.

2. DeAndre Hopkins WR - Ceiling is Roddy White, a polished receiver who already runs pro quality routes and ball skills. Instant starter who should level off as a strong WR2 at worst, with WR1 upside in right offense.

3. Giovani Bernard RB - Matt Waldman puts him on the Ray Rice-Brian Westbrook talent axis and that sounds about right to me, although he lacks Rice’s burst and Westbrook’s ability to break tackles, so he’ll be a middle-class version of a love child of those backs.

4. Johnathan Franklin RB - Terrific pure runner who is slightly undersized. Slashing style with crispness to everything he does. My favorite RB in this class on film.

5. Eddie Lacy RB - He’ll remind you of Marshawn Lynch at times. Will be drafted to be a bell cow. Durability questions and a very disappointing pro day have knocked him down a few spots.

6. Cordarrelle Patterson WR - I won’t blame you if you take him #1. Highest ceiling in this class, but also has lowest floor of top 6. Unbelievable after the catch but prone to lapses and generally inconsistent.

7. Markus Wheaton WR - Wheaton might not have the high ceiling of those ahead of him on this list, but he has a very high floor as a fast, athletic, gritty receiver. Santonio Holmes type (the good Santonio Holmes).

8. Marcus Lattimore RB - Arian Foster type before his injuries. Everything sounds good around his knee and if you are going to believe in anyone to overcome this, Lattimore is the one to bet on.

9. Keenan Allen WR - Big receiver who can get open, but not a special athlete. Knee that took a long time to get healthy is a concern.

10. Tyler Eifert TE - Eifert could be a Jason Witten type in the right offense and has wide receiver ball skills in a big tight end body.

11. Geno Smith QB - Smith is a great athlete and bold passer. Even if he is hit and miss, he should be able to string together a run of QB1 seasons a la Aaron Brooks.

Tier 2

The talent dropoff from Tier 1 to 2 is non-existent. Some of the players in Tier 2 have higher ceilings than the players in Tier 1. There’s just more uncertainty with how this group will translate. Be willing to take a second round pick to let someone move up in the first, you’ll get a nice player in the second.

12. Robert Woods WR - Woods pre-ankle injuries looked like a talent that belonged in the first tier, but he hasn’t been healthy for a while. Reminds me of USC Steve Smith.

13. Stedman Bailey WR - Not as ballyhooed as his teammate Austin, Bailey is a hard-nosed, fast deep threat who is dangerous after the catch. I could see taking him a lot higher in the right offense.

14. Da’Rick Rogers WR - Basically Keenan Allen with a healthy knee, but three positive drug tests that cost him his spot at Tennessee. Talent belongs in Tier 1.

15. Justin Hunter WR - At times, Hunter reminds me of Randy Moss, but that was mostly in 2010 before his torn ACL. If he gets back there, watch out. Needs to be more consistent.

16. Christine Michael RB - Part of me really wants to put him in the top 10. He’s the best natural runner in this class, but he also has character and injury questions. Swing for the fences types should love Michael.

17. Arthur Brown LB - I’m not in love with this IDP class, especially compared to the skill players. Brown looks like a Tasmanian Devil out there, and he is worth a first-round pick in more IDP heavy systems.

18. Andre Ellington RB - Some question him because of size, but I see Chris Johnson in Ellington and believe he can be a three-down back.

19. Quinton Patton WR - I’m not as sold on Patton as I am on Woods and Bailey, but he was ultraproductive and should have a high floor as a projected #2 receiver. Will drop if he lands in bad offense.

Tier 3

In Tier 3, the risk/reward gap gets bigger, or the ceilings get lower. This group represents very good value for late 2nd/3rd round picks, and a few of them could be terrific trade-up targets if they fall to the 4th or later.

20. Travis Kelce TE - Has some mysterious character stuff that caused him to be suspended for a year, but also has some Gronk to his game. Ceiling is higher than Eifert, but more a lot more risk.

21. EJ Manuel QB - If he hits, he’ll be an easy QB1 because of his running ability. That is a big if, but he should be drafted high enough to get a few years to fail before his team gives up on him.

22. Ryan Swope WR - Swope is accomplished at the Wes Welker style short/intermediate slot target game, but he has also great speed and a running back mentality after the catch. Could climb this list in right offense.

23. Tavarres King WR - Very underrated talent with great speed, toughness, and hands. Looks like a #2, but could easily move up a tier based on destination.

24. Mark Harrison WR - This year’s EEEE Brandon Marshall. Big, fast, strong, aggressive, but prone to frustrating drops. Nursing a broken foot, so you might be able to steal him a lot later because he’ll fall in the draft.

25. Marquise Goodwin WR - WOW speed. Mike Wallace speed. Goodwin was underused at Texas and he is very raw as a receiver, but he showed good toughness, hands, ball skills, and open field running instincts. Massive upside.

Tier 4

Now we get to our strong IDP prospect with risk or limited upside, and our solid offensive prospects who might live on the fringe of fantasy relevance without some situational breaks in their favor. All of these edge rushers would have more fantasy value as defensive ends than they would at outside linebacker. There’s a solid group of third tier running backs who could make noise if they get a shot.

26. Alec Ogletree LB - Ogletree has the speed and range to rack up tackles, but he has also racked up reasons to wonder about his ability to stay out of trouble. A boom/bust pick.

27. Tank Carradine DE/OLB - My favorite pass rusher in this draft. Posted over 80 tackles last year at 6’4” 274 playing defensive end and missing the last two games of the season. More likely to be drafted as DE, but athletic enough to play OLB.

28. Sio Moore OLB - Can play every linebacker position in both schemes and rush the passer as a defensive end - and do them all well. A high floor IDP prospect but with a low ceiling because of his likely position/duties.

29. Kevin Minter ILB - Minter is a seek and destroy linebacker that reminds me of Curtis Lofton, but like Lofton, there are questions about whether he can be a three-down player.

30. Zac Stacy RB - Stacy has some Fred Jackson to his game, and he looks like Doug Martin when you compare measureables. He’s not a heralded prospect, but his film is excellent.

31. Dion Jordan OLB/DE - Jordan has unusual range and coverage skills combined with a great speed pass rush from the edge. He’ll be a dynamic every down player from day one.

32. Josh Boyce WR - Boyce is a strong, tough receiver with excellent routes, hands, and top-end speed. He lacks the size to project as a primary receiver, but is still an excellent talent that will likely fall to the third day of the draft.

33. Terrance Williams WR - Williams is a one-dimensional size/speed receiver, a less dynamic Vincent Jackson. He could settle in as a productive #2 in the right offense, but that’s it.

34. Corey Fuller WR - Fuller has underrated speed, terrific hands, and natural ball skills. He’s a smooth athlete with crisp route running, but his limited game after the catch and lack of true breakaway speed cap his upside at #2 wide receiver for his team.

35. Jarvis Jones OLB - The temptation is there to pick his tape apart, but he was still highly productive in the SEC, and he should be allowed to play in space and mostly attack/chase, which is where he excels.

36. LeVeon Bell RB - Bell will likely be long gone before the 30s in most rookie drafts, but his tape underwhelms as a big back who gets by on footwork more than power. Could be drafted to start very soon a la Shonn Greene.

37. Chris Gragg TE - This former wide receiver looks like a wideout when it’s time to make the catch, and he is a tough and fast runner, too. Should be drafted mainly for his receiving ability and athleticism.

38. Bjoern Werner DE - Werner seemed to disqualify himself from OLB consideration, which is actually good for his IDP stock. He isn’t going to be a top-notch sack master, but he projects as Chris Long-type DE2 at worst.

39. Barkevious Mingo OLB/DE - As a defensive end, he would jump at least 5-7 spots, but Mingo projects better as a 3-4 OLB. A sack-heavy league special.

40. Montee Ball RB -  As he showed at Wisconsin, Ball can be ultra-productive in the right situation. The problem is that he’s not especially elusive, powerful, or fast, and he’ll need volume to hit in fantasy leagues - volume he might not get because of his lack of top-notch tools.

41. Mike Gilleslee RB - Gilleslee is a nice all-around back, but he’s the kind of back who is never the most talented runner on his roster.

42. Stepfan Taylor RB - See Gilleslee.

43. Kiko Alonso LB - Alonso looks like the kind of LB who can stay on the field all three downs and cover a lot of ground. He has good hands for the interception and fits well in a pass-happy NFL.

44. Chris Harper WR - Harper is a big bully at 230 pounds, but he doesn’t create a lot of separation. Solid #2 wide receiver is his upside.

45. Manti Te’o LB - Te’o might get a job that puts him in a position to make a lot of tackles, but I don’t see him as a three-down linebacker or playmaker in the NFL.

46. Zach Ertz TE - Like Te’o, Ertz will be drafted as a projected starter early in his career, but I don’t see a high level pro producer when I watch his film.

47. Ray Graham RB -  I love Graham’s power cutter style and want to put him higher on this list, but he still hasn’t gotten all the way back from his 2011 ACL tear and he had a terrible Combine.

48. Matt Scott QB - I don’t love waiting around for projects like Matt Scott to develop, but his running ability combined with his toughness and solid arm makes me think there’s enough there to be patient in a deep league.

49. Kenny Stills WR - Still is good on 50/50 balls and he has above average speed, but he isn’t a threat after the catch and limited ceiling #2 at best in the NFL.

50. Rex Burkhead, RB - A Matt Waldman favorite, Burkhead looks like 2010 Peyton Hillis to me when he is at his best. A runaway train that can jump the track. Like Stacy, may have to scratch and claw his way up depth chart.

Tier 5

Sleepers and offensive players who have talent or theoretical value, but are unlikely to hit, and lower ceiling/higher risk IDPs.

51. Vance McDonald TE - McDonald has a great combination of size and athleticism, and he’s an experienced slot receiver. His hands are unreliable and he might be another Tony Scheffler.

52. Marquess Wilson WR - He quit on Mike Leach, but the athleticism he displayed in a long-limbed frame makes him worth a late-round bet in rookie drafts.

53. Marcus Davis WR - Has some similarities to Mark Harrison - big and scarily athletic, but very inconsistent hands - and he’s not the natural hands catcher the rest of the time that Harrison is.

54. Knile Davis RB - Size, speed, and strength to be success in NFL are there, but he runs too much like a scatback at 5’10” 227, and Davis has big durability and ball security issues.

55. Ryan Otten TE - I really like Otten’s game and may regret putting him this low. He has good ball skills, hands, and toughness, but he is just an average athlete and doesn’t seem like he’ll be drafted to be a big weapon in his team’s passing game.

56. Ryan Nassib QB
57. Tyler Wilson QB
58. Matt Barkley QB

This group will go higher in rookie drafts than I have them because they are probably assured a shot to start soon for the team that takes them. There’s a glut of good fantasy QBs right now, and none of them have profiles that point to a big fantasy future. I’ll pass.

59. Kenny Vaccaro S - Vaccaro is athletic enough to match up with Tavon Austin in the slot, and he is also a good blitzer and in-the-box safety. He’s a great IDP prospect, I just don’t value safeties that highly in my IDP dynasty leagues.

60. Ziggy Ansah DE/OLB - The physical ability is there to be a force, but he is very inexperienced and has a lot of risk for a highly drafted edge defender. Will go a lot higher in most drafts if he really does go top 5 in the NFL draft.

61. Dion Sims TE - Sims isn’t an elite athlete, but he is a big, tough tight end with good ball skills and great potential as a blocker. He could be a solid fantasy TE in the Alge Crumpler mold.

62. Kevin Reddick LB - Another one of the new breed of linebackers who can play inside, outside, and rush the passer, Reddick projects as a solid fantasy LB3/LB4 if he can work his way into a starter position.

63. Michael Mauti LB - A healthy Mauti would be a top 35 player on this list, but he suffered his third torn ACL since 2009 late in the season, and will likely not have an impact until 2014 - if ever.

64. Spencer Ware RB - His combination of size, burst, and pass-catching ability could be very exciting in fantasy leagues if he can get a shot. A Matt Waldman favorite.

65. Cierre Wood RB - A high effort slasher with good toughness, Wood looks like a committee back at the next level at best, and one that doesn’t contribute in the passing game.

66. Quanterus Smith DE/OLB - Smith, like Carradine, is coming off of an ACL tear. Maybe the most polished and advanced pass rusher in this draft, and capable of taking over game.

67. Joe Randle RB - Randle looks like a third-down back, and occasional gamebreaker, but he doesn’t get enough yards after contact or have a dynamic enough game to project as a starter.

68. Aaron Dobson WR - Dobson flashes physical ability to start in the NFL at times, but he’s too inconsistent to bet on before the late rounds of your rookie draft.

69. Aaron Mellette WR - He’s big and pretty athletic, but Mellette doesn’t play with a physical edge and might have Ramses Barden syndrome.

70. Devonte Holloman, OLB - A hardnosed, do-everything linebacker who will be on the field in every situation, but his style of play and role doesn’t produce big numbers.

71. Khaseem Greene OLB - Greene was highly productive at Rutgers and has the profile to be a three-down LB, but I don’t love his instincts and he’s not much of a physical presence against the run.

72. Miguel Maysonet RB - A physical, no-nonsense back that runs hard. He won’t ever be the most talented back on his roster, but he has some Alfred Morris to his game.

73. Jake Stoneburner TE - He wasn’t used a lot at Ohio State, but Stoneburner has wide receiver hands and ball skills, in addition to playing the position at times in college. He is fast enough to break long plays and has a knack for scoring touchdowns.

74. D.J. Harper RB - Once started over Doug Martin. Has durability questions, but more talented than typical late-round back.

75. Jawan Jamison RB - Jamison is a tough, compact running back with a lot of heart, but he doesn’t project to have the physical abilities to be more than a backup or third running back in the NFL.

76. Jordan Reed TE - He’ll be drafted as a receiving joker tight end like another former Gator Aaron Hernandez, but Reed isn’t in his galaxy of talent. Doesn’t look considerably better than 2012 4th round pick Evan Rodriguez.

77. Jamie Collins OLB - Collins is an explosive 3-4 OLB prospect who could be a nice producer with surprising upside. He is as athletically gifted as any of the edge rush prospects in this draft.

78. Zaviar Gooden OLB - Gooden projects as a productive WLB in a 4-3. Like most of the linebacker on this list, he’ll move up or down depending on opportunity where he lands.

79. Theo Riddick RB - Riddick has spent time at wide receiver and running back and is serviceable as both, with good toughness and effort at spots. He’s probably a role player, but he could be a nice secondary piece of a spread offense.

80. Gavin Escobar TE - What’s a big possession receiver with no run after catch ability worth at tight end? He’ll be overdrafted by the NFL, but don’t be the one to make that mistake in your rookie draft.

81. Jonathan Cyprien S - Projects as an impact safety, but I don’t value the position all that highly.

82. Charles Johnson WR - This deep sleeper from Grand Valley State has terrific measureables and has been one of the quickest risers in the postseason.

83. Brice Butler WR - This USC transfer didn’t put up big numbers until his pro day, when he ran 4.36 with a 39” vert at 6’3” 214. He has shown the ability to make the acrobatic catch and might be a lot better pro than college player. As long as Pete Carroll doesn’t reunite with Butler with the intention of making him a cornerback, he’ll be one to track.

84. Brandon Kaufman WR - Kaufman is a big, tough wide receiver with good hands and decent speed. He is probably a depth receiver at the next level, but his red zone presence makes him a potential sleeper if he develops.

85. Sheldon Richardson DT - A defensive tackle moves like a linebacker could have massive IDP value, but Richardson is a little raw and carries some risk.

86. Kerwynn Williams RB - Williams looks like a nice role player in the NFL with the speed to break some big plays, but he’s probably a LaRod Stephens-Howling type at best.

87. Kenjon Barner RB - Barner’s production looks like a product of the Oregon offense. He doesn’t run with great urgency or break tackles, and seems to want to run outside and avoid contact.

88. Mychal Rivera TE - Rivera can only be a move TE in the NFL, and he lacks special qualities, but he is a good downfield receiver and could have relevance in a good passing offense.

89. Mike Glennon QB - Glennon will likely be drafted to start eventually, and that’s worth something, but I’m not sure how much. He looks more like Derek Anderson than Joe Flacco to me.

90. Keenan Davis WR - Davis didn’t stand out at Iowa because of Marvin McNutt in 2011 and quarterback play in 2012, but he is a receiver with good size and route-running skills who should stick on a roster.

91. Cobi Hamilton WR - The size/speed combination can translate to the pro game, but the rest of Hamilton’s film looks subpar. Likely not physical or consistent enough to hang.

92. Dennis Johnson RB - Johnson has some ball security issues, and his good all-around game may doom him to a utility back role. If a team ever gets him a shot to do more, Johnson could surprise.

93. Tyler Bray QB - Bray could flame out early in his development, but if he straightens out, he has the best natural arm talent in this draft. Destination will determine whether he’s draftable in deep leagues.

94. Chris Thompson RB - Thompson might be too small to have a big role in the NFL and he’s coming off of a torn ACL, but every now and then he looks like CJ Spiller on film.

95. Zach Rogers WR - Rogers was a complementary receiver to three of the receivers in the top 25 of this list. He’ll probably do the same in the NFL, but his polish and speed make him a decent deep sleeper.

96. Ace Sanders WR - Think of him as a poor man’s Tavon Austin. Sanders could click in the right setting, but his upside is capped as a smallish slot receiver who lacks breakaway speed.

97. Conner Vernon WR - Probably a #3/#4 receiver in the NFL, but Vernon’s fearless game in the air and overall athleticism make him one to watch if he lands in a big-time passing offense.

98. Jon Bostic ILB - Bostic has the intensity, instincts, and tough physical edge you want in an inside linebacker, but I’m not sure if his mediocre athleticism will translate. If he gets drafted to a team with a clear path to a job, I’ll move him up a lot.

99. Justice Cunningham TE - An underrated, sturdily-built athlete and hard-nosed receiver who will give up his body to make a catch. His great blocking may get him a shot to do more in the passing game.

100. Corey Lemonier DE/OLB - Lemonier is an underrated pass rusher and very instinctive linebacker who isn’t on the physical level of the top echelon of edge defenders this year. He is a nice sleeper if he ends up a 4-3 DE.