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hooligantelus.net, rated by footballguys.com

Please note that rate-my-team is a PRESEASON tool. It is still functional as a demo, but the analysis is NOT updated to account for 2015 season-to-date happenings.

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QB: Tom Brady
RB: David Johnson, Carlos Hyde, Jonathan Stewart, Theo Riddick, Dion Lewis
WR: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Donte Moncrief, Michael Floyd, Will Fuller
TE: Kyle Rudolph
PK: Dan Bailey
TD: Arizona Cardinals

Overview:

In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.

Footballguys owner David Dodds even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late. Value-Based Drafting principles also suggest that teams constructed in this manner end up being strong. But for this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help. Last year Blake Bortles could be had very cheap in August, but ended up contributing to a lot of fantasy championships. In 2014 it was Ben Roethlisberger; in 2013 it was Nick Foles. Quarterbacks like these can be found every year, and that could be the key to your team's success.

So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.

Players we particularly like on this team include Donte Moncrief, Carlos Hyde, Michael Floyd, Theo Riddick, the Cardinals defense, and Dan Bailey. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:
  • With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With good inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With average inseason management, we think you have a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 5 of 2016:

David Johnson vs. SF: 185 combined yards, 2 TD
Tom Brady vs. CLE: 406 passing yards, 3 TD
Theo Riddick vs. PHI: 82 combined yards, 2 TD
Carlos Hyde vs. ARI: 114 combined yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:

We have Tom Brady rated #22 among quarterbacks, so we're not even sold on him as a fantasy starter in your league. We strongly recommend that you add a backup QB (we'll make some specific suggestions at the end of the report).

RB Summary:

Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.7 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have David Johnson ranked second and Carlos Hyde ranked at #15.

Your bench also looks good. Jonathan Stewart looks great as a third running back; he's a likely flex starter. Theo Riddick should also be solidly above average at RB4.

We're not sure that Dion Lewis adds much, as you're already strong at the position and we aren't convinced he's roster-worthy in this league anyway.

WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.2 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. DeAndre Hopkins is our #4 ranked receiver, Mike Evans is #11, and we have Donte Moncrief 24th.

Your bench also looks good. Michael Floyd looks great as a fourth receiver.

We're not sure that Will Fuller adds much, as you're already strong at the position and we aren't convinced he's roster-worthy in this league anyway.

TE Summary:

With only Kyle Rudolph, who we don't think is starter-quality in this league, this position is likely to be a trouble spot for you all season.

Kicker Summary:

With Dan Bailey, you should be above average at the position.

Defense Summary:

The Cardinals are our #2 ranked defense, so you're in good shape here.


Is this a dynasty team? Click here to find out how it might look for 2017 season.


Schedule Analysis

Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

12345678910111213141516
Tom BradyARIMIAHOUBUFCLECINPITBUFSEASFNYJLABALDENNYJ
 
Carlos HydeLACARSEADALARIBUFTBNOARINEMIACHINYJATLLA
David JohnsonNETBBUFLASFNYJSEACARSFMINATLWASMIANOSEA
Dion LewisARIMIAHOUBUFCLECINPITBUFSEASFNYJLABALDENNYJ
Theo RiddickINDTENGBCHIPHILAWASHOUMINJAXMINNOCHINYGDAL
Jonathan StewartDENSFMINATLTBNOARILAKCNOOAKSEASDWASATL
 
Mike EvansATLARILADENCARSFOAKATLCHIKCSEASDNODALNO
Michael FloydARIMIAHOUBUFCLECINPITBUFSEASFNYJLABALDENNYJ
Will FullerCHIKCNETENMININDDENDETJAXOAKSDGBINDJAXCIN
DeAndre HopkinsCHIKCNETENMININDDENDETJAXOAKSDGBINDJAXCIN
Donte MoncriefDETDENSDJAXCHIHOUTENKCGBTENPITNYJHOUMINOAK
 
Kyle RudolphTENGBCARNYGHOUPHICHIDETWASARIDETDALJAXINDGB
 
Dan BaileyNYGWASCHISFCINGBPHICLEPITBALWASMINNYGTBDET
 
Arizona CardinalsNETBBUFLASFNYJSEACARSFMINATLWASMIANOSEA
 
Relative Strength98100981021099597103869810710198102100101

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

  • Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.
  • Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).
  • Week 9 presents serious bye week issues for you: Tom Brady, David Johnson, Dion Lewis, Michael Floyd, Will Fuller, DeAndre Hopkins, and Arizona Cardinals are off.
  • Week 6 presents moderate bye week issues: Mike Evans and Kyle Rudolph are not playing.
  • Jonathan Stewart and Dan Bailey are out in week 7, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.
  • In weeks 4, 5, 8, 10, 11, and 12 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.


Potential Free Agents

Listed in order of preference. We don't know exactly who is available in your league, but here is a list of players who might be available and could be upgrades over some of your depth players, listed in order of preference. Your players are listed in red for comparison. Players who might not mesh well with the bye weeks of your key players are grayed out.


QB: Marcus Mariota (13), Ryan Fitzpatrick (11), Tom Brady (9), Brock Osweiler (9), Jay Cutler (9), Joe Flacco (8), Carson Wentz (4), Blaine Gabbert (8), Robert Griffin III (13), Sam Bradford (6), Jared Goff (8), Dak Prescott (7), Paxton Lynch (11), Trevor Siemian (11), Tony Romo (7), Jimmy Garoppolo (9), Case Keenum (8), Josh McCown (13), Shaun Hill (6).

RB: Bilal Powell (11), James Starks (4), Tevin Coleman (11), James White (9), Darren Sproles (4), Devontae Booker (11), Jerick McKinnon (6), Kenneth Dixon (8), Shane Vereen (8), Javorius Allen (8), Tim Hightower (5), Christine Michael (4), Shaun Draughn (8), Chris Thompson (9), Tyler Ervin (9), Jordan Howard (9), Benny Cunningham (8), DeAndre Washington (10), Charcandrick West (5). We have all these players rated ahead of Dion Lewis.

WR: Travis Benjamin (11), Corey Coleman (13), Stefon Diggs (6), Rishard Matthews (13), Josh Gordon (13), Devin Funchess (7), Michael Thomas (5), Markus Wheaton (8), Robert Woods (10), Mohamed Sanu (11), Tyler Boyd (9), Pierre Garcon (9), Steve Smith (8), Quinton Patton (8), Phillip Dorsett (10), Ted Ginn (7), Kenny Britt (8), Terrance Williams (7), Kenny Stills (8). We have all these players rated ahead of Will Fuller.

TE: Antonio Gates (11), Zach Ertz (4), Julius Thomas (5), Tyler Eifert (9), Zach Miller (9), Martellus Bennett (9), Jason Witten (7), Eric Ebron (10), Dwayne Allen (10), Jared Cook (4), Charles Clay (10), Jimmy Graham (5), Kyle Rudolph (6).

PK: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

TD: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.


Projections and Player Summaries

PlayerCmpAttYDY/ATDINTRshYDTDFPTRank
Tom Brady30545033307.427725251323.022

Tom Brady - Tom Brady will be suspended for the first four games of the 2016 NFL season. His status does make it hard to peg when you can grab him as a fantasy player, but one thing is for sure--when he shows up, he'll produce. 2015 was one of his best seasons and while he may not hit that high water mark because of the suspension, when he does play he will put up top fantasy numbers. All you have to do is find some way to bridge the gap while he's gone. The addition of Martellus Bennett should make the passing game even better, as the Patriots are able to put defenses in a bind with mismatches that no NFL team can truly answer.

PlayerRshYDY/RshTDRecYDTDFPTRank
David Johnson23510344.410524783229.22
Carlos Hyde25010504.27302041173.415
Jonathan Stewart2159354.36201421149.721
Theo Riddick752813.72574853106.642
Dion Lewis451894.2120180148.971

Carlos Hyde - It's easy (and fair) to be down on Hyde for 2016 and beyond. He's yet to wow anyone on the NFL level, with just two of his first 198 carries going for 20+ yards. He's already missed 11 of 32 games to injury and coming off surgery for a foot fracture. He's not a special receiving threat, and his offense looks punchless. But assuming his health, Hyde looks like a solid candidate for a semi-breakout in his third year. The mere presence of Chip Kelly guarantees it; the volume involved in a Kelly offense is league-high, and the primary players are featured exhaustively. In 2014, Kelly rode LeSean McCoy to a whopping 75.2% of all RB carries - which meant a 340-touch season and 63 looks from within the red zone. As for the other bring-down factors, they're hard to ignore. Hyde isn't thrown to much, and it's hard to project many scoring opportunities for such an anemic offense. But with Kelly in charge and gobs of new offensive volume, we can at least expect those numbers to stay static and competitive with Hyde's peers. It's fair to project an additional 20-30 touches over a full season, so strong yardage shouldn't be a problem. A jump to at least 20 receptions and 8 touchdowns would be RB2-acceptable, as long as Hyde is healthy and effective enough to turn his new volume into 1,200 yards or so.

David Johnson - Starting in Week 13, when Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington were both injured, David Johnson caught fire down the stretch of his rookie season. Heading into 2016, he is primed to be the team's workhorse at running back. Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington will have roles, but David Johnson will get 20+ touches per game as the lead back, and should mostly stay on the field at the goal line and on passing downs as well. (He got 20+ touches in five of the Cardinals last seven games last season, including the playoffs, and excelled.) Given his production last season and his projected bellcow status on one of the league's more explosive offenses in 2016, Johnson will likely merit a top-five fantasy pick in just about every format.

Dion Lewis - Before he was injured, Dion Lewis was having a ridiculous season. We thought he would be ready to go this season, but as of August 21, he's about to have a second knee surgery. This is considered "clean up" which some say means he could be back sometime this season, but we're not feeling very confident that he will or that he will pick up where he left off last season. James White will step into the role. Lewis will start the season on the PUP, but there's no guarantee he'll play this year.

Theo Riddick - Riddick played 47% of the snaps in 2015 and was used almost exclusively as a pass-catcher (72 career carries in three seasons). He is ineffective as a rusher, averaging just 2.9 yards per carry in his career. He lacks the power to run between the tackles and is best when he can get out in space and make guys miss. Riddick has thrived in the passing game and is one of the NFL's top receiving backs. When Riddick was on the field in 2015, the Lions passed 86% of the time. Riddick caught 80 passes for 697 yards and three touchdowns. He is one of the game's best third-down backs (like a younger Darren Sproles) and is a matchup nightmare when motioning out of the backfield into the slot. Riddick should again play nearly half of the snaps for the Lions and is a flex-option in PPR leagues.

Jonathan Stewart - Jonathan Stewart made it most of the way through the 2016 season, managing to appear in 13 games and generating 242/989/6 rushing while seeing 21 targets for 16/99/1 receiving during that span (he sat out weeks 15-17 after the Panthers had locked up the first seed in the NFC). Stewart finished 2015 as the 16th-ranked fantasy running back in the NFL, his best finish since 2009, and capped his season with a TD during the Super Bowl 50 loss to Denver. One has to go back to 2011 to find a full 16-game season contributed by Stewart - he has appeared in 13 games per season over the past two years, but fantasy owners investing in Stewart need to have a good alternative on the roster as he is far from a lock to appear in all the games during 2016. Cam Newton ran in 10 TDs last year and averages 8.6 rushing TDs per season, which limits the number of rushing scores fantasy owners can expect from the Panthers' running backs - last season Carolina scored 19 rushing TDs (first in the NFL) of which Stewart claimed six (31.5%). In short, the fantasy ceiling of Stewart (especially in the rushing TDs department) is dragged down by virtue of being a teammate of Newton.

PlayerRshYDTDRecYDY/RecTDFPTRank
DeAndre Hopkins000104142513.79196.54
Mike Evans00081119114.78167.111
Donte Moncrief1507594512.67137.024
Michael Floyd1505787215.37129.727
Will Fuller0004053213.3477.267

Mike Evans - Mike Evans took over as Tampa Bay's lead receiver in 2015 as Vincent Jackson continued his physical erosion and missed time at two different points during the season. At times, Evans was force-fed targets as the only health NFL-caliber weapon at Jameis Winston's disposal, leading to inefficiency for Evans per-target. Evans also had a sizeable touchdown rate regression from nearly 18% as a rookie, down to just 4% as a sophomore. Evans has a wide catching radius and a size advantage over every cornerback in the league, making him a prime candidate to bounce back with end zone success in 2016.

Michael Floyd - Michael Floyd has been frustratingly inconsistent over the course of his four-year career thus far, making spectacular plays and showing elite athleticism at times, but completely disappearing for long stretches in between. His 2015 season was mostly positive, especially down the stretch, as he went for over 100 yards in five of the team's final eight regular-season games. (The early part of the season was negatively affected by badly dislocating three fingers during training camp.) Floyd will have to compete with Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown for targets, but he's still at least a solid fantasy WR3 in twelve-team leagues, with significant upside potential.

DeAndre Hopkins - DeAndre Hopkins is the primary receiving threat on the Texans and is considered an elite fantasy receiver who is more than capable of reaching expectations of a WR1 on your roster. Hopkins had 192 targets and 111 receptions in 2015, which trailed only Antonio Brown and Julio Jones among wide receivers. He also reached double-digit touchdowns (11) for the first time in his three-year career and finished fourth in PPR rankings and 6th in standard format. Hopkins has climbed up the ranks each year he has been in the league, despite having sub-par quarterbacks at his disposal. This year he will have strong-armed Brock Osweiler throwing to him, which could elevate his game to a new level. Osweiler has a load of potential and could wind up being the catalyst that further propels Hopkins to the upper echelon of the league.

Donte Moncrief - Donte Moncrief took a big step forward in his second year in the league, doubling both his targets and reception totals from 2014. His six touchdowns, all in six different games, led all Colts receivers. He had 10+ targets in a game three times with two 100-yard receiving efforts. Moncrief is expected to line up opposite T.Y. Hilton and be a key contributor on an offense that is projected to bounce back from the doldrums. Barring injury he should eclipse 100 targets once again and have 70+ receptions with 6-10 touchdowns. Moncrief had surgery in May to repair a turf toe injury, but he is expected to be ready for camp in August.

PlayerRecYDY/RecTDFPTRank
Kyle Rudolph5152010.2476.020

Kyle Rudolph - Kyle Rudolph played a full 16 game season for only the second time in his 5 year career in 2015. He also had a personal best in receiving yards with 495 and added 49 receptions and 5 touchdowns. Although the Vikings have some nice depth at the Tight End position with Mycole Pruitt and Rhett Ellison, the starting role belongs to Rudolph and he has potential to continue to develop a strong relationship with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Rudolph is not a top ten TE fantasy option but he is a key player in the Vikings offense as a whole. If both Stefon Diggs and Laquon Treadwell can step up in the WR roles the passing game could very well open up more for Teddy Bridgewater and Kyle Rudolph will likely benefit with more open looks down the field.

PlayerFGMFGAXPMXPAFPTRank
Dan Bailey29354345130.05

PlayerSackFRINTTDYd/GPt/GFPTRank
Arizona Cardinals371118533720.3141.92


Player News (last 7 days)

"Our view" written by footballguys.com's Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom. Click here for all the news around the NFL, updated constantly.

Patriots | Michael Floyd gets jail sentence - New England Patriots WR Michael Floyd was sentenced Friday, Feb. 17, after pleading guilty to his extreme DUI charge. He will have to spend 120 days in jail, 24 of which to be served in Maricopa County Jail and the other 96 to be served under house arrest. In addition, Floyd must pay a $5,115 fine and complete 30 hours of community service. The other six charges against him were dismissed. Fri Feb 17, 04:00 PM     [Link to story]

49ers | Carlos Hyde has room to grow - San Francisco 49ers RB Carlos Hyde is a 'work in progress,' according to former running backs coach Tom Rathman. 'He's moving in the right direction,' Rathman said. 'He still has some growing to do as a football player to get to the level of player that everybody wants to be.' Thu Feb 16, 11:38 PM     [Link to story]

Footballguys view: Hyde is going to have a great opportunity to shine in 2017 under new head coach Kyle Shanahan. Entering the final year of his contract, Hyde could make a lot of money if he stays healthy and shines in Shanahan's RB-friendly system. Hyde is a player we're excited about for the upcoming season.

Patriots | Tom Brady extension possible - New England Patriots QB Tom Brady has expressed mutual interest in a new contract with the team, according to source. Talks are in preliminary stages. Brady is signed through 2019. He will earn $1 million in 2017, but he has a $14 million salary cap number. Thu Feb 16, 09:27 AM     [Link to story]

Footballguys view: Brady wants to keep playing and the Patriots are much better with him than without him. It makes sense, especially when we factor in reducing that cap number. This could also be a sign that they are serious about moving Jimmy Garoppolo.