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QB: Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB: Fred Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, C.J. Spiller, Cedric Benson, Rashard Mendenhall
WR: Percy Harvin, Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace, Denarius Moore, Andre Roberts
PK: Matt Prater, Greg Zuerlein
TD: Seattle Seahawks, Houston Texans

Overview:

This team is built around strong quarterback play. Despite not being strong at running back and receiver, we think this team should be above average.

Nevertheless, we feel compelled to mention that the RB and WR positions make us a bit nervious and are likely to require some attention throughout the year. We'd feel much better if we knew you were committed to scooping up 2012's breakout players at RB and WR. Getting one or more of these would take this team to the next level.

Bottom line:
  • With great inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With good inseason management, we think you have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With average inseason management, we think you have a 63 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 11 of 2010:

Maurice Jones-Drew vs. CLE: 220 combined yards, 1 TD
Fred Jackson vs. CIN: 129 combined yards, 2 TD
Aaron Rodgers vs. MIN: 301 passing yards, 4 TD
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. CIN: 316 passing yards, 4 TD
Cedric Benson vs. BUF: 146 combined yards, 1 TD
Mike Wallace vs. OAK: 116 receiving yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:

You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Aaron Rodgers should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #1 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 3.8 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.

Our projections don't show Ryan Fitzpatrick as being a top-notch backup, but the issue will be moot as long as Rodgers stays healthy.

Incidentally, Fitzpatrick has what we project as a neutral matchup (MIA) during Rodgers's bye.

RB Summary:

We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Fred Jackson ranked 11th and Maurice Jones-Drew ranked at #19.

C.J. Spiller is a handcuff, but we'd like him as a third running back even if you didn't have Fred Jackson. Cedric Benson is an excellent RB4. Rashard Mendenhall is a little below average as a fifth running back.

WR Summary:

We see both your starters at receiver as below average. Percy Harvin is our #9 ranked receiver, and we have Steve Smith at #16.

Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. We see Vincent Jackson as an average third receiver; he's a likely flex starter. Mike Wallace is an excellent WR4.

Though some teams will probably be content to roster as few as four players here, it was not a bad idea to take a few extras because you're not particularly strong overall at the position. Of your remaining guys, we like Denarius Moore the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.

Kicker Summary:

We don't like any of these guys. The waiver wire is your friend.

Defense Summary:

The Seahawks are probably not a difference-maker at defense, but they should be OK.

When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Seahawks', along with the combined schedule that each would create:

Seahawks   +   Patriots   =   ARI | ARI | BAL | STL | DEN | SEA | NYJ | STL | MIN | NYJ | IND | NYJ | CHI | ARI | BUF | JAX
Seahawks   +   Cardinals   =   ARI | DAL | PHI | STL | STL | BUF | MIN | DET | MIN | NYJ | ATL | STL | NYJ | ARI | DET | CHI
Seahawks   +   Falcons   =   ARI | DEN | SD | STL | CAR | OAK | SF | PHI | MIN | NYJ | ARI | TB | CHI | ARI | BUF | DET

Is this a dynasty team? Click here to find out how it might look for 2013 season.

Schedule Analysis

Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

12345678910111213141516
Ryan FitzpatrickNESDDETHOUMINPITBUFINDCHIMIAJAXHOUINDNYJGB
Aaron RodgersSFCHISEANOINDHOUSTLJAXARIDETNYGMINDETCHITEN
 
Cedric BensonSFCHISEANOINDHOUSTLJAXARIDETNYGMINDETCHITEN
Maurice Jones-DrewMINHOUINDCINCHIOAKGBDETINDHOUTENBUFNYJMIANE
Fred JacksonNYJKCCLENESFARITENHOUNEMIAINDJAXSTLSEAMIA
Rashard MendenhallSEANEPHIMIASTLBUFMINSFGBATLSTLNYJSEADETCHI
C.J. SpillerNYJKCCLENESFARITENHOUNEMIAINDJAXSTLSEAMIA
 
Percy HarvinARIDALGBSTLCARNESFDETMINNYJMIACHIARIBUFSF
Vincent JacksonCARNYGDALWASKCNOMINOAKSDCARATLDENPHINOSTL
Denarius MooreSDMIAPITDENATLJAXKCTBBALNOCINCLEDENKCCAR
Andre RobertsSEANEPHIMIASTLBUFMINSFGBATLSTLNYJSEADETCHI
Steve SmithTBNONYGATLSEADALCHIWASDENTBPHIKCATLSDOAK
Mike WallaceHOUOAKNYJARICINSTLNYJINDTENBUFSEANESFJAXBUF
 
Matt PraterPITATLHOUOAKNESDNOCINCARSDKCTBOAKBALCLE
Greg ZuerleinDETWASCHISEAARIMIAGBNESFNYJARISFBUFMINTB
 
Houston TexansMIAJAXDENTENNYJGBBALBUFCHIJAXDETTENNEINDMIN
Seattle SeahawksARIDALGBSTLCARNESFDETMINNYJMIACHIARIBUFSF
 
Relative Strength10010010210110295108971031019310210010198100

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

  • Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

  • Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

  • Week 11 presents moderate bye week issues: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Percy Harvin, and Seattle Seahawks are not playing.

  • Week 6 presents moderate bye week issues: Maurice Jones-Drew and Steve Smith are not playing.

  • Week 8 presents moderate bye week issues: Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller, and Houston Texans are not playing.

  • In weeks 4, 5, 7, 9, and 10 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

Potential Free Agents

Listed in order of preference. We don't know exactly who is available in your league, but here is a list of players who might be available and could be upgrades over some of your depth players, listed in order of preference. Your players are listed in red for comparison. Players who might not mesh well with the bye weeks of your key players are grayed out.

QB: Matt Schaub (8), Josh Freeman (5), Joe Flacco (8), Jake Locker (11), Carson Palmer (10), Ryan Fitzpatrick (11), Russell Wilson (11), Andy Dalton (8), Christian Ponder (11), Matt Cassel (11).

RB: Taiwan Jones (5), Kendall Hunter (9), Toby Gerhart (11), Bilal Powell (9), Rashard Mendenhall (10), Ronnie Hillman (7), Bernard Scott (8), Brandon Jackson (10), Shane Vereen (9), Javon Ringer (11).

WR: Darrius Heyward-Bey (4), Vernon Davis (9), Denarius Moore (5), Santonio Holmes (9), Brandon Pettigrew (5), Jermichael Finley (10), Michael Crabtree (9), Titus Young (5), Fred Davis (10), Jason Witten (5), Anquan Boldin (9), Tony Gonzalez (7), Jermaine Gresham (8), Brandon LaFell (6), Robert Meachem (7), Greg Little (10). We have all these players rated ahead of Andre Roberts.

PK: Dan Bailey (5), Matt Bryant (7), Alex Henery (7), Sebastian Janikowski (5), Shayne Graham (10), Mike Nugent (8), Matt Prater (7), Justin Medlock (), Shaun Suisham (4), Dan Carpenter (7), Rob Bironas (11), Billy Cundiff (), Robbie Gould (6), Justin Tucker (8), Nick Folk (9), Rian Lindell (8). We have all these players rated ahead of Greg Zuerlein.

TD: Detroit Lions (5), Seattle Seahawks (11), New York Jets (9), Chicago Bears (6), New York Giants (11), Dallas Cowboys (5), Buffalo Bills (8), Atlanta Falcons (7), Arizona Cardinals (10), Tennessee Titans (11), San Diego Chargers (7), Houston Texans (8).

Projections and Player Summaries

PlayerCmpAttYDY/ATDINTRshYDTDFPTRank
Aaron Rodgers33452544368.43711552593403.71
Ryan Fitzpatrick31652033446.42218502001257.222

Ryan Fitzpatrick - After a tremendous 2010 season, Fitzpatrick took both a step forward and back in 2011. While he increased his passing yards from 2,992 to 3,832, it took him 128 more attempts to do it because the Bills tried to counter poor offensive line play with a short passing attack. He also saw his interception total jump from 15 to 23. However, he was forced to throw a lot of desperation balls in the final quarters of games so it was not poor decision-making that hurt him as much as game situation. Improvements on the offensive line should help Fitzpatrick improve his production this year and avoid the riskier passes he tends to make at times. While he will not be a top-tier starting quarterback in fantasy leagues, Fitzpatrick is an excellent QB2 with low-end starter numbers as his ceiling.

Aaron Rodgers - For much of the 2011 season, Aaron Rodgers was the best fantasy option in the game. The Packers are so loaded with receiving talent that No. 3 through No. 5 receivers Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Donald Driver would have been a better receiving rotation for teams like the Browns, Bears, Vikings, Jaguars, Patriots, and Bills than what those squads fielded en masse last year. Rodgers has a great arm, great mobility, and great accuracy. He also understands defenses as well as any elite quarterback in the league. This is a player at the top of his game with an offense at the top of theirs. Expect top-five fantasy production at the position once again in 2012.

PlayerRshYDY/RshTDRecYDTDFPTRank
Fred Jackson2109664.67423192228.511
Maurice Jones-Drew23510584.57282211207.919
C.J. Spiller1355944.44453152175.925
Cedric Benson2158824.1612840144.633
Rashard Mendenhall1305334.1315113099.651

Maurice Jones-Drew - Maurice Jones-Drew had perhaps his best season as a professional in 2011 as he posted nearly 2,000 yards rushing and receiving. Unfortunately, his massive production did very little for the Jaguars offense as a whole as the passing game stalled often under Blaine Gabbert. Jones-Drew will look to carry over last season's momentum but is likely hoping for a reduced workload (he touched the ball 386 times) as the passing game improves. While he had fewer big plays than in seasons past, he was able to improve his between the tackles running in 2011 and showed improved lower-body power and balance on his way to rushing for 1,606 yards. Jones-Drew is 27 years old and entering his athletic prime. While he isn't likely to average 21 carries per game again in 2012, he should still be one of the few running backs in the league that receives enough carries to be thought of a stud running back. That, combined with his ability to score from anywhere on the field, makes Jones-Drew an excellent option at the top of most drafts.

Fred Jackson - Jackson is a multi-faceted player. He is an able inside and outside runner and he has excellent receiving skills. Some of the Bills best plays in the 2011 season were screen passes to Jackson. The veteran runner is not as explosive as his teammate CJ Spiller, but he has demonstrated more weekly consistency. Jackson is rehabbing a season-ending injury and he turns 31. Although he’s had less wear and tear than other backs his age, most runners in their 30s don’t heal as fast as they did in their 20s. It is likely that Jackson will share carries with Spiller, which could limit his ceiling. Fantasy owners can count on Jackson to approach 1,000 yards in 2012, making him a nice bet as a very good No.2 fantasy starter. However, that’s the likely extent of his upside.

Rashard Mendenhall - Opinions of Rashard Mendenhall in Pittsburgh vary greatly. Some think he's overrated while others think he's very talented but has been held back by offensive scheme and poor line play. Mendenhall has flashed signs of brilliance --- his best performance arguably being a 2010 playoff game in which he rushed for 121 yards against a New York Jets team that only allowed 90.9 per game in the regular season (good for 3rd in the NFL). In a surprise move, Pittsburgh activated Mendenhall off the Physically Unable to Perform List --- meaning they obvious believe he's ready to contribute within the season's first six weeks.

C.J. Spiller - Spiller got his chance to start for the Bills in 2011 and he was a more than an able replacement. However, his weekly performances lacked consistency on a team that often trailed in games and forced to abandon the run. Spiller has enough size, explosiveness, and versatility to serve as a lead back in the same way that Reggie Bush was a Top 12 fantasy runner for the Dolphins. As long as returning veteran Fred Jackson plays to his ability after suffering a fractured fibula last November, Spiller will likely split duties with Jackson in a committee backfield. Because Jackson turns 31 this year, 2012 is Spiller's opportunity to solidify his place as the future of the Bills' backfield. Look to Spiller's 2012 production to meet expectations as a flex option with upside as a No.2 fantasy runner in redraft lineups. His dynasty value is likely to rise in 2013 if in 2012 he continues to flash the patience and big-play ability that he showed down the stretch of 2011.

PlayerRshYDTDRecYDY/RecTDFPTRank
Percy Harvin30195180104013.06247.59
Steve Smith424074112515.27234.916
Vincent Jackson321069103515.07218.628
Mike Wallace540066102315.57216.331
Denarius Moore42406191515.06192.939
Andre Roberts21003541711.9289.7103

Percy Harvin - Despite inconsistency at quarterback and a lack of viable receiving talent opposite Percy Harvin, the versatile receiver-runner-return specialist had a career year in 2011. Harvin's migraine issues are still a concern, but he has worked hard with a medical team to manage the issue enough that there should be more confidence in his health entering 2012. Another reason for future optimism is the addition of explosive threat Jerome Simpson and the potential of Arkansas draft picks Jairus Wright and Greg Childs. If one of these three players performs to expectation, Harvin will become an even stronger candidate as a Top 15 fantasy receiver. This year, he's still a safe No. 2 fantasy receiver because the Vikings will continue to move him around the formation to get mismatches in Harvin's favor.

Vincent Jackson - After spending his career to this point in San Diego, Vincent Jackson has opted for a change of scenery. Jackson gives the Buccaneers a legitimate go-to receiving threat that they have not had in quite some time. Jackson's presence will give the offense an edge and provide a deep threat that will give Josh Freeman a big target to use off play action. Jackson will command the attention of a safety over the top that may give Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn, among others, with more single coverage. The opportunity for Jackson to thrive in 2012 is there, but it remains a run-first offense and he may not reach the heights of his San Diego days. Nevertheless, the Buccaneers could be playing from behind often, so he could come close or possibly eclipse his personal career high of 68 receptions and finish with a Top 15 ranking. He is a solid late fourth- or fifth-round pick and is an decent candidate to outperform his draft position at season's end.

Denarius Moore - As a rookie fifth-round pick, Denarius Moore turned heads in training camp last year, and made his way into the starting lineup early in the season. His big play ability was evident from the time he got his first playing time in Week 2. Moore is a bit undersized and doesn't have a great initial burst, but he builds up to excellent top-end speed, and he has tremendous leaping ability and hands. He is at his best on jump balls down the field. He is a great fit in the Raiders' vertical passing game, and worked well with quarterback Carson Palmer toward the end of last season. Moore was extremely inconsistent as a rookie, but the flashes he showed make him an enticing high-upside pick in the ninth or tenth round of a 12 team draft. Lining up next to other big play receivers like Darrius Heyward-Bey and Jacoby Ford means that Moore may not be the focus of the passing offense. Moore is a classic boom-or-bust pick this year. Draft him as a low-end WR3, but realize that he could end up performing far above or far below his draft position.

Andre Roberts - Andre Roberts - the third-year pick from the Citadel - has had impressive moments as an outside receiver with the Cardinals because he has soft hands, excellent open field skills, and skill at adjusting to the football. However, he's a smaller option and a better fit in the slot. Kevin Kolb commented after the Cardinals' selection of top rookie receiver Michael Floyd that Andre Roberts can be a special player and that moving him to the slot is a perfect fit. Considering that Kolb had a better statistical rapport with Early Doucet, that's a telling compliment for Roberts. If the Cardinals passing attack takes off, Roberts could have a 2012 commensurate with No. 3 fantasy receivers. He's a solid late-round choice with upside, but easy to drop if the Cardinals struggle through the air.

Steve Smith - The addition of Cam Newton and his ability to make plays allowed Steve Smith to burst onto the scene once again. Smith never lost his edge as one of the game's best wide receivers - he just didn't have the right quarterback that could take advantage of his skills. When Cam Newton took center stage, Smith followed and had one of the best seasons of his career catching 79 passes for 1,394 yards and seven touchdowns. Some people are concerned that his age (33 years old) will cause him to slow down sooner rather than later, but Smith is one of those players that plays with controlled, youthful abandon. His love for the game and desire to always be great will keep him playing under his age for a long time. He is a major contributor on the Panthers offense, which isn't expected to change in 2012. Last year, Smith's 129 targets was 40 more than the next closest receiver on the team (TE Greg Olsen) and 54 more than the next closest wide receiver (Legedu Naanee). Smith currently has an ADP of WR15, which is great value, considering he was ranked 6th last year in standard Footballguys scoring format. There is talk that Smith may be used more in the slot in 2012, which makes sense, since Smith is an excellent receiver after the catch who can be elusive in open space. The slot position would allow him to use his separation skills to his advantage. Ultimately his ceiling could be very similar to Wes Welker numbers if used in that same role. Smith is a great wide receiver to target in the third round of your draft who is capable of many 100-yard games. If the news of him playing in the slot turns out to be reality, he could be a big surprise this year that could result in a Top 5 finish.

Mike Wallace - There aren't many players in football with the speed that Mike Wallace possesses. That speed allows him to be a big-time fantasy asset. Wallace, however, can be very hit-or-miss. He racked up 72 catches, 1,1,93 yards, and eight touchdowns last season, but he didn't have a 100-yard receiving game after Week 7 last season. What Wallace lacks in week-to-week consistency, he more than makes up for with his ability to have huge games. Wallace would be a great asset to any fantasy team but particularly those in a "best ball" format that incentivizes big-play players. Reports on August 27th said that Wallace report to the team on Tuesday the 28th. He'll have less than two weeks to get up to speed in a brand new offense -- one where he has only seen the playbook. In any given season, Wallace's fantasy ceiling is a top-5 WR. His floor is that he comes in still unhappy and can't grasp the new Todd Haley offense. He's still a #3 fantasy WR at absolute worst if healthy, and taking him in the Round 4-5 range is an intelligent move.

PlayerFGMFGAXPMXPAFPTRank
Matt Prater25304343118.013
Greg Zuerlein2329282897.028

Matt Prater - While Tebowing became all the rage last year, there are some who argued (with legitimate cause) that perhaps it should have been Pratering. Their kicker was a key component in the Broncos run last year with weekly clutch kicks, including several from long range. Prater has proven to be an excellent fourth quarter kicker during his career. This certainly factored into the Broncos giving him the franchise tag for 2012. Assuming he signs the tender, he'll again be working with long snapper Lonie Paxton and punter/holder Britton Colquitt. After what seemed like an eternity ranked in the top ten, the Broncos dropped to 26th in kicker scoring opportunities in 2010 and 28th in 2011. With an eye towards hopefully generating some scoring opportunities in the first three quarters, the team added a new quarterback via free agency. If Manning assimilates to his new surroundings, Prater could benefit.

Greg Zuerlein - The Rams are rebuilding --- from head coach to kicker. Immediately following the draft, the Rams parted ways with Josh Brown, who had a down 2011 and would have garnered a hefty 2012 salary. They had just selected his replacement in the 6th round: Zuerlein out of Missouri Western. During his impressive senior season, Zuerlein hit 23 of 24 (95.8%) field goals, including nine from 50+ yards. The team also parted ways with punter/holder Donnie Jones. Free agent Tom Malone and undrafted rookie Johnny Hekker (Oregon State) will battle for that job. Jake McQuaide is back at long snapper. The new coaching staff is led by head coach Jeff Fisher and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. The Rams have covered the extremes in kicker scoring attempts the last three years --- from ranking 32nd up to 7th back down to 31st. What does all this add up to for Zuerlein in 2012? Rebuilding typically takes time, so kicking attempts will probably be sparse again this year.

PlayerSackFRINTTDYd/GPt/GFPTRank
Seattle Seahawks361117531920.6173.08
Houston Texans371015232121.3151.018

Houston Texans - It's time to realize that the Texans Def/ST is one of the top units on the board. Yes, they lost free agent Mario Williams to the Bills, but they added OLB Whitney Mercilus and DE Jared Crick via the draft. Both are capable of providing a boost to an already dominant front seven. Crick was an absolute steal in the late fourth round and Mercilus was selected to provide depth to a very strong group of edge rushers in the Texans base 3-4 defense. Don't forget, Mario Williams only played five games last year, before a torn pectoral ended his season. Without their main pass rushing weapon, Houston combined for 44 sacks and 27 takeaways. Rising stars Connor Barwin and JJ Watt were monumental in the team's defensive success that allowed only 8 rushing TDs and 18 passing TDs - both among the league's best. The two rookie additions to the line will strengthen an already good defense, plus their special teams gets a lift from rookie WR Keshawn Martin, who will definitely return punts and possibly kickoffs. It's possible people may not realize the strength of this defense/ST unit, but they are capable of putting up a Top 5 ranking at the end of the season.

Seattle Seahawks - The Seahawks simply couldn't get at the quarterback last year and given the offensive line problems of the other three teams in their division, that's a concern. They were able to generate turnovers though and fought through some injuries. If everyone is healthy, they will be better this year however ultimately this isn't a defense with enough playmakers to warrant anything more than bye week or defense by committee status on fantasy rosters.

Player News (last 7 days)

"Our view" written by footballguys.com's Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom. Click here for all the news around the NFL, updated constantly.

Dolphins | Ryan Tannehill strong in practice - Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill was sharp during organized team activities Tuesday, May 21. Tannehill had big passes to WRs Brian Hartline and Mike Wallace. TE Dustin Keller was impressed with Tannehill's first practice. "You would think a guy who used to play wide receiver the best thing he does is run the ball," Keller said. "But he puts the ball right on the money and he's a good decision maker, as well." Tue May 21, 02:26 PM     [Link to story]

Our view: The Dolphins have been searching for a real franchise QB ever since Dan Marino retired. That's what they have in second-year QB Tannehill. With the improved weapons around him (Dustin Keller, Mike Wallace) we could see Tannehill take a sizable jump in production this season.

Panthers | Steve Smith blasts Mark Sanchez - Carolina Panthers WR Steve Smith verbally blasted New York Jets QB Thursday, May 16. 'He sucks,' Smith reportedly said. 'I wouldn't let Mark Sanchez throw me a paper bag sandwich.' Thu May 16, 05:55 PM     [Link to story]

Our view: Smith needs to tell us how he really feels. We'll see Sanchez battle rookie Geno Smith for the starting job this year.

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