Your team, rated by footballguys.comEdit this team Input another team with the same league settings Your team is currently being rated by the projections of David Dodds Switch to: Maurile Tremblay Bob Henry Jason Wood
QB: Nick Foles
RB: Giovani Bernard, Reggie Bush, Chris Johnson, Christine Michael
WR: Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Kendall Wright, Dwayne Bowe
TE: Dennis Pitta
TD: Seattle Seahawks
Your receivers are the strongest part of this team. While no team can be expected to be above average at all three core positions (QB/RB/WR), you are in the precarious position of being a bit weak at two of them.
Although you should not be counted out yet, you may need to be active on both the waiver wire and in trades to turn this team into a legitimate contender. The best way to achieve that might be to sacrifice some of your wide receiver strength to gain multiple players than can help your roster now. It's generally easier finding quarterbacks and wide receivers on the waiver wire than quality running backs.
Keep an eye out for quarterbacks like Nick Foles from last year, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck from 2012, or Cam Newton in 2011. All were available cheap in August, and all contributed to fantasy championship teams. Likewise, running backs like Knowshon Moreno and Zac Stacy could be had dirt cheap at the draft or shortly after. You are likely going to need to land some of this year's top waiver plays, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Players we particularly like on this team include Chris Johnson and Kendall Wright. We have both these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.Bottom line:
- With great inseason management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With good inseason management, we think you have about a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With average inseason management, we think you have a 38 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 9 of 2013:Andre Johnson vs. IND: 229 receiving yards, 3 TD
Nick Foles vs. OAK: 406 passing yards, 7 TD
Chris Johnson vs. STL: 170 combined yards, 2 TD
Giovani Bernard vs. MIA: 104 combined yards, 2 TD
Brandon Marshall vs. GB: 107 receiving yards, 1 TD
We expect Nick Foles to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #5 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.
Despite your strong starting quarterback, we recommend taking a backup. See the end of this report for some specific suggestions.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Nick Foles as high as #4, which would make him an above average first quarterback. Jeff Pasquino's take: "I just do not trust Nick Foles this year. Philadelphia is a run first offense, and the Eagles barely threw 500 times in 2013 (508 attempts as a team). Foles' numbers do not speak towards a pass-happy fantasy producing quarterback, as he topped 30 passing attempts just three times in 10 starts, with just one game with more than 35 attempts. Throw in his ridiculously good touchdown to interception ratio (27 to 2) and only two of his 10 starts with over 300 passing yards and you can begin to see the reasons for my pessimism. Now with his top receiver gone (DeSean Jackson), Foles is much more likely to post more pedestrian fantasy numbers that could have him as more of a fantasy QB2 than a Top 10 starter. "RB Summary:
We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Giovani Bernard ranked at #11 and Reggie Bush ranked at #15.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Chris Johnson should serve as a very solid third running back.
Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Christine Michael is the right player for the job. Check the end of the report for some alternative suggestions.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Giovani Bernard as high as #7, which would make him a fine first running back. Maurile Tremblay's take: "With BenJarvis Green-Ellis gone, Bernard should get an even bigger piece of the pie."
Some of our staffers have Reggie Bush as high as #9, which would make him a great second running back and even a legitimate RB1. Mark Wimer's take: "Bush had over 1,500 yards combined last year, and the Lions further upgraded their offense during free agency and the NFL draft. With Joique Bell out of the picture while Bush builds on his chemistry with Matthew Stafford and company during summer sessions, I think Bush could have an even bigger season in his second campaign with the Lions - he is already very familiar with OC Joe Lombardi's offense dating to his days in New Orleans, and has had a full year to get comfortable with Stafford and the other personnel in Detroit. I think he's got a lot of upside potential this year. "
Christine Michael is ranked #31 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average fourth running back. Chad Parsons reasons, "Michael is the ideal bench running back. He is a missed game from Marshawn Lynch away from being an automatic weekly starter."WR Summary:
Your starting receiver group is a strength, particularly Brandon Marshall as a second receiver. We figure them at a combined 3.0 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Julio Jones is our sixth ranked WR, Marshall is #7, and we have Andre Johnson 14th.
Your bench also looks good. Tough to do better than Kendall Wright at WR4.
Dwayne Bowe is a solid depth pick.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Julio Jones as high as #3, which would make him an above average first receiver. Kyle Wachtel's take: "Is Jones' foot a concern? Sure, but it should not be a surprise to anyone if he finishes the year as the leading fantasy receiver. He was on pace for a whopping 131 receptions before his was injured last season and while the injury to Roddy White may have attributed to that, Tony Gonzalez' retirement freed up extra targets."TE Summary:
Dennis Pitta, who we have ranked #8, is below average but probably adequate as a starting tight end. You might get by with only Pitta, but some additional help here probably wouldn't hurt.
Some of our staffers have Dennis Pitta as high as #5, which would make him an above average first tight end. Jeff Pasquino's take: "First, let's get the downside out of the way. Dennis Pitta lost all of last year due to a bad injury in the preseason, but that is behind him now. Baltimore is going to be a very tight end friendly passing attack this season with offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak now on the staff. Joe Flacco is already best friends with Pitta and loves to target him whenever he can, so I see a tight end with Top 5 upside that can be had for much cheaper in drafts this year."Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.Defense Summary:
We think the Seahawks are the #1 defense in the league, at about 1.2 points per game above average.
Is this a dynasty team? Click here to find out how it might look for 2015 season.
Schedule AnalysisGreen means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.
- Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.
- Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).
- Week 9 presents serious bye week issues for you: Reggie Bush, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, and Kendall Wright are off.
- Week 7 presents serious bye week issues for you: Nick Foles is off.
- Chris Johnson and Dennis Pitta are out in week 11, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.
- In weeks 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, and 12 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.
Potential Free AgentsListed in order of preference. We don't know exactly who is available in your league, but here is a list of players who might be available and could be upgrades over some of your depth players, listed in order of preference. Your players are listed in red for comparison. Players who might not mesh well with the bye weeks of your key players are grayed out.
QB: Ben Roethlisberger (12), Alex Smith (6), Ryan Tannehill (5), Joe Flacco (11), Jake Locker (9), Eli Manning (8), Geno Smith (11), Carson Palmer (4), EJ Manuel (9), Ryan Fitzpatrick (10), Shaun Hill (4), Josh McCown (7), Johnny Manziel (4), Derek Carr (5), Chad Henne (11), Teddy Bridgewater (10). RB: Ray Rice (11), Trent Richardson (10), Maurice Jones-Drew (5), Fred Jackson (9), Jeremy Hill (4), DeAngelo Williams (12), Shane Vereen (10), Steven Jackson (9), Pierre Thomas (6), Bishop Sankey (9), Bernard Pierce (11), Danny Woodhead (10), Darren Sproles (7), Darren McFadden (5), Mark Ingram (6), Andre Williams (8). We have all these players rated ahead of Christine Michael. WR: Julian Edelman (10), Golden Tate (9), Rod Streater (5), Jordan Matthews (7), Anquan Boldin (8), Brian Hartline (5), Tavon Austin (4), Kelvin Benjamin (12), Riley Cooper (7), Dwayne Bowe (6). TE: Zach Ertz (7), Dennis Pitta (11), Jason Witten (11), Kyle Rudolph (10), Greg Olsen (12), Martellus Bennett (9), Ladarius Green (10), Charles Clay (5), Dwayne Allen (10), Antonio Gates (10). PK: Mason Crosby (9), Blair Walsh (10), Nick Novak (10), Adam Vinatieri (10), Robbie Gould (9), Shayne Graham (6), Nate Freese (9), Greg Zuerlein (4), Ryan Succop (6), Nick Folk (11), Sebastian Janikowski (5), Caleb Sturgis (5), Graham Gano (12), Cody Parkey (7), Dan Carpenter (9), Shaun Suisham (12). TD: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.
Projections and Player Summaries
Nick Foles - Chip Kelly played his quarterback decision close to the vest in the 2013 preseason. Ultimately he gave the job to Michael Vick, but a hamstring injury opened the door to Nick Foles; he never looked back. Foles was exceptional, leading his team to an 8-2 record as a starter. He completed 64% of his throws for 2,891 yards. Most impressively, he threw 27 touchdowns (leading the league with an 8.7% TD rate) against just two interceptions. He led the league in yards per attempt, yards per completion, and passer rating. Kelly proclaimed Foles the "starter for the next 1,000 years" this offseason and now the only question is what can Foles do for an encore? Given the potency of the offense, and the fact Foles will have a full offseason to prepare as the starter, it's reasonable to expect high level production. Yet, the Eagles were 27th in pass attempts last year and unless you think Foles can match last year's historic TD% rate, some regression is to be expected. He's a fantasy QB1, but don't get too overzealous and expect him to push for Top 3 honors.
Giovani Bernard - Giovani Bernard should only be helped by new Offensive Coordinator Hue Jackson's offensive philosophy, as Jackson is a run-first coach all the way. Bernard could push 300 total touches this season as a workhorse runner. Jackson likened Bernard to Ray Rice, who went from 107 carries in his rookie season to 254 in his second. Should Bernard see a similar uptick in attempts, his production should also soar. He's a very talented player who impressed mightily in limited action (170 carries, 56 receptions) last season. Bernard is a three-down player who should only come off the field in certain short-yardage situations, if he does at all. Bernard was even given some goal line carries last season, and he saw some success. There's no guarantee that he'll be removed from the field in those situations in 2014.
Reggie Bush - Bush thrived in Detroit last season because he was able to work the ball into the open field where his speed and elusiveness made him a dangerous weapon. He broke the 1000 yard rushing mark for the second time in his career, and his 500 receiving yards gave him his best stats as an NFL player. But Bush still wasn't able to finish a full 16 game season. Expecting him to eclipse last year's numbers at this point in his career maybe too much to ask. Look for a solid, yet unspectacular season from Bush again this year with stats somewhere in the RB2 range. If he can stay healthy, or get into the end zone a couple more times, he could have some RB1 games.
Chris Johnson - Former Titans running back Chris Johnson has definitely lost a step or two over the last few years. You can point to some questionable offensive line play in Tennessee as well as an injury which he's still recovering from (and which required surgery that will have him missing OTAs per ESPN New York's Kieran Darcy) but he's absolutely lost a step. He won't have to carry the load--he will share time with Chris Ivory. That should make him a value as a low-end RB2 or a high-end RB3. He'll get plenty of carries and accumulate yards but not enough of those (or enough touchdowns) to elevate into the top of the RB2 ranks.
Christine Michael - Christine Michael was the Seahawks' second-round pick in 2013, and many people believe he has the physical talent more typical of first-rounders. Michael was impressive during the 2013 preseason, but got little action during the regular season. Robert Turbin already knew the offense, and also played a role on special teams, so he was the primary backup to Marshawn Lynch while Michael was often inactive. This year, however, Michael will be given every opportunity to compete with Turbin for the number two role, and many observers believe that Michael is the more talented of the two. Michael has a terrific size-speed combination, and is a tough inside runner whose style isn't all that different from Lynch's. As with all handcuff options, Michael is a boom-or-bust fantasy RB who will have little to no value in redraft leagues if Lynch remains healthy and productive this season. That said, Michael's higher upside potential makes him the better option than Turbin as a handcuff to Lynch.
Dwayne Bowe - Bowe failed to live up to expectations in 2013 for a variety of reasons. The only one of those reasons beyond his control was the performance of the Chiefs defense. Bowe saw a significant reduction in production for the first nine weeks due to the fact that the Chiefs were blowing out bad teams early and had no desire to force the ball into a receiver that doesn't specialize in getting wide open. Bowe's production saw a slight uptick in the second half and he was WR26 from week 11-16. He was even better in the team's playoff loss, putting up an 8-150-1. Historically Bowe has been about a 50/50 bet to hit 1000 yards and other than his anomalous 2010 (15 TD) he's averaged around 5 scores a year. He is good at using his body in traffic, but also has a maddening amount of silly drops. Bowe has struggled with a finger injury in camp and has been suspended for week one of the regular season due to a marijuana arrest in 2013.
Andre Johnson - At age 33, Andre Johnson is not getting any younger, but on the same token he is coming off two consecutive seasons with 100+ receptions and is still a viable fantasy option at wide receiver. His quarterback situation makes it difficult to assume the same results are inevitable, but this is the same player who found Pro Bowl success with David Carr and Sage Rosenfels under center. If he can stay healthy and be the go-to option for quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, he'll have a good chance to finish in the Top 20. There was talk about Johnson having mixed feelings about staying with the team during their new rebuilding phase, however that appears to no longer be a concern. Houston was adamant not to trade him and Johnson changed his stance. He is now committed to working with and meshing with Fitzpatrick, who was a student of Harvard and is veteran of the game and quarterback position. Johnson should still be an asset to the team and major contributor similar to years past. His numbers overall may drop off some, due to the new offense and the growing pains associated with that. Second year receiver DeAndre Hopkins also figures to have an increased role that could put a squeeze on Johnson's sheer number or targets.
Julio Jones - Julio Jones enters the 2014 season as the unquestioned #1 wide receiver in the Falcons' stable of pass catchers. His impact on the team's offense was made clear during 2013 as the Falcons' passing attack struggled in Jones absence - (he was lost after week five, 2013 due to a fractured foot). Jones had over 100 yards in three of the five games he appeared in last season, and 99 yards receiving in a fourth, before going down to the foot injury (the second time he's broken the foot in the same place). During the first five games of the season - with Jones in the lineup - Ryan threw for over 300 yards three times, over 400 yards once, and he connected for two TDs per game (10 over the first five contests) with just three total interceptions during that span of time. Assuming Jones has fully recovered from his foot injury, he should have no problem returning to or surpassing the level we saw from him during 2012 (138 targets for 79/1198/10 receiving over 16 games). He is one of the dominant, young wide receivers in the NFL right now at 25 years of age. With legendary tight end Tony Gonzalez now in retirement, Jones and his compatriots at wide receiver - Roddy White and Harry Douglas - are likely to see even more opportunities to catch the football during the upcoming NFL season as the wide receivers will inherit some of the 120-130 targets and 80-90 receptions that Gonzalez handled annually while with the Falcons..
Brandon Marshall - Marshall is Jay Cutler's favorite target and when Cutler's in the game, Marshall is going to get the ball. The emergence of Alshon Jeffery makes Marshall even more dangerous because opposing defenses can't double cover him on every play. He may not see the 192 targets he did back in 2011, but a healthy Jay Cutler could mean more than the 164 that Marshall has last season. Marshall is a competitor and he could easily see another top ten or even top five finish in his third season in Chicago.
Kendall Wright - Kendall Wright broke out last season, but his fantasy impact was hampered by a lack of touchdowns. That was primarily a result of his usage in the end zone, Wright had just one end zone target on his first 121 targets last season. That target resulted in a touchdown against the Houston Texans. While his usage in the redzone moving forward is unclear, it appears that Wright will feature heavily in Ken Whisenhunt's offense. Whisenhunt's offenses consistently throw a lot to the slot receiver. What Wright did last season, 94 receptions for 1,079 yards and two touchdowns, should be the floor of his expectations entering next season.
Dennis Pitta - Dennis Pitta missed most of 2013 after a dazzling 2012 season in which he burst on the scene with 61 receptions, 661 yards, and seven touchdowns. Pitta became one of Joe Flacco's most trusted targets, and that continued during the team's Super Bowl run when he tallied 14 postseason catches and three more touchdowns. In 2012, he shared "apple-of-Flacco's-eye" duties with Anquan Boldin, who is no longer in Baltimore. Pitta's 2012 numbers for receptions and yards should be considered his floor in a fully healthy campaign. Look for him to be the "move" tight end in an offense that will feature many two-tight end sets. He'll occupy the slot and play in-line.
Seattle Seahawks - This unit has lost (and reloaded) a lot of talent and depth in the offseason. One person they made a point to bring back was Michael Bennett to play opposite Cliff Avril on the defensive line. There's still plenty of talent, and a lot of bodies, but the drop off may be greater when hey start subbing than it was last year. Behind them will be a group of young athletic linebackers led by Bobby Wagner. As good as the LB were last year there's reason to believe they should be even better in 2014. of course the back of the defense is covered by the Legion of Boom. Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, and Kam Chancellor bring big hits, big plays, and big numbers. Again, the Seahawks lost a little depth here, but the other three are so good they may not need any help.