Pate, rated by footballguys.com
Please note that rate-my-team is a PRESEASON tool. It is still functional as a demo, but the analysis is NOT updated to account for 2015 season-to-date happenings.Edit this team Input another team with the same league settings Your team is currently being rated by the projections of David Dodds Switch to: Maurile Tremblay Bob Henry Jason Wood
QB: Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill, Colin Kaepernick, Nick Foles
RB: DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore, Melvin Gordon, Joseph Randle, Bishop Sankey
WR: Jordan Matthews, Vincent Jackson, Allen Robinson, Nelson Agholor, DeVante Parker
TE: Rob Gronkowski
PK: Steve Hauschka
TD: Seattle Seahawks, Carolina Panthers
The quarterback position looks good, and we like your overall strength at the tradionally less important positions as well. Despite not being strong at running back and receiver, we think this team should be the league favorite or very close to it.
Nevertheless, we feel compelled to mention that the RB and WR positions make us a bit nervous and are likely to require some attention throughout the year. We'd feel much better if we knew you were committed to scooping up 2015's breakout players at RB and WR. Getting one or more of these would take this team to the next level.
Players we particularly like on this team include Colin Kaepernick and the Panthers defense. We have both these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.Bottom line:
- With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With good inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With average inseason management, we think you have a 74 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 4 of 2014:DeMarco Murray vs. NO: 155 combined yards, 2 TD
Frank Gore vs. PHI: 174 combined yards, 1 TD
Andrew Luck vs. TEN: 393 passing yards, 4 TD
Colin Kaepernick vs. PHI: 218 passing yards, 58 rushing yards, 2 TD
Ryan Tannehill vs. OAK: 278 passing yards, 2 TD
Andrew Luck is clearly a great anchor in a start-two-QB league. We have him ranked first among quarterbacks and estimate him at about 3.8 points per game better than an average QB1 in this league. We see Ryan Tannehill, our #13 quarterback, as a decent option at QB2 but not one who excites us.
Colin Kaepernick is a fine third QB. Nick Foles is a fine fourth QB.
A quick note about the same-team Luck/Frank Gore duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.RB Summary:
We have DeMarco Murray ranked #7 at the position. So while he's passable as a first running back, he doesn't look particularly thrilling.
We see Frank Gore as an average second running back; he's a likely flex starter. Melvin Gordon is practically criminal at RB3. Joseph Randle should serve as a very solid fourth running back.
Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Bishop Sankey is the right player for the job. Check the end of the report for some alternative suggestions.
Again, the same-team aspect of the Murray/Jordan Matthews duo does not concern us.WR Summary:
We see both your starters at receiver as below average. Jordan Matthews is our #13 ranked receiver, and we have Vincent Jackson at #19.
Allen Robinson is a little below average as a third receiver. Nelson Agholor is also a fair-to-middlin' fourth receiver.
Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced DeVante Parker is the right player for the job. Check the end of the report for some alternative suggestions.TE Summary:
As you are well aware, Rob Gronkowski is an elite tight end. We have him ranked first overall at the position. He's about 3.6 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Given your league rules and the presence of Gronkowski, your decision to roll with just one tight end is a reasonable one.Kicker Summary:
With Steve Hauschka, you should be above average at the position.Defense Summary:
Between the Seahawks and the Panthers, you should get above average production here.
Is this a dynasty team? Click here to find out how it might look for 2016 season.
Schedule AnalysisGreen means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.
- Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.
- Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).
- Week 8 presents serious bye week issues for you: DeMarco Murray, Nelson Agholor, Jordan Matthews, and Allen Robinson are off.
- Week 5 presents moderate bye week issues: Ryan Tannehill, DeVante Parker, and Carolina Panthers are not playing.
- Nick Foles and Vincent Jackson are out in week 6, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.
- In weeks 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, and 12 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.
Potential Free AgentsListed in order of preference. We don't know exactly who is available in your league, but here is a list of players who might be available and could be upgrades over some of your depth players, listed in order of preference. Your players are listed in red for comparison. Players who might not mesh well with the bye weeks of your key players are grayed out.
QB: Joe Flacco (9), Carson Palmer (9), Alex Smith (9), Marcus Mariota (4), Blake Bortles (8), Derek Carr (6), Nick Foles (6), Kirk Cousins (8), Tyrod Taylor (8), Brian Hoyer (9). RB: Rashad Jennings (11), Giovani Bernard (7), Isaiah Crowell (11), C.J. Spiller (11), Joique Bell (9), Duke Johnson (11), Shane Vereen (11), Todd Gurley (6), Danny Woodhead (10), Terrance West (9), Tevin Coleman (10), Ryan Mathews (8), Tre Mason (6). We have all these players rated ahead of Bishop Sankey. WR: Anquan Boldin (10), Jeremy Maclin (9), Torrey Smith (10), Nelson Agholor (8), Larry Fitzgerald (9), John Brown (9), Kendall Wright (4), Jarvis Landry (5), Roddy White (10), Charles Johnson (5), Steve Smith (9), Michael Floyd (9), Pierre Garcon (8). We have all these players rated ahead of DeVante Parker. TE: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here. PK: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here. TD: Houston Texans (9), Carolina Panthers (5), Green Bay Packers (7), Denver Broncos (7), New England Patriots (4), Arizona Cardinals (9), Baltimore Ravens (9), Dallas Cowboys (6), Indianapolis Colts (10), Miami Dolphins (5).
Projections and Player Summaries
Nick Foles - After an eye-popping statistical line in his 2013 breakout, Nick Foles struggled as one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the NFL in 2014. Now, Foles leaves the friendly confines of Chip Kelly's Philadelphia offense for St.Louis. The Rams lack the weapons of the Eagles with Brian Quick returning from injury and Kenny Britt a question mark any given season. Foles will also have to excel beyond a Rams offensive line, one of the lowest-rated pass-blocking units in the NFL last season. Without a strong surrounding cast or system, 2015 will be a critical litmus test for Nick Foles.
Colin Kaepernick - After a dazzling 2012 debut that produced 1.71 touchdowns per game and ended in the Super Bowl, Kaepernick has clearly failed to progress as an NFL passer. In fact, he's regressed each year in yards per attempt, interception rate, sack rate, and QBR. All the while, the offense has aged, rebuilt, and restaffed around him, leaving him in a difficult position to project with confidence. Armed with a new face in Torrey Smith and aging, limited complements, it's hard to know what to expect in terms of efficiency. And efficiency is key, as volume simply isn't there. Among quarterbacks to start every game over the last two years, only Russell Wilson has thrown fewer passes, and the thoroughly run-based scheme doesn't expect to change under the new coaching staff. What we know about Kaepernick is that he's strong-armed and absurdly athletic, able to improvise dynamically in both the pass and run games. Where he has failed has been when asked to play within the pocket. Scattershot and inconsistent in working a defense, Kaepernick's value depends entirely upon elite rushing production and a dynamic deep ball that produces long, open touchdowns. Now, Kaepernick has historically ranked very highly in Pro Football Focus' deep ball accuracy measure before falling to 17th last year. Still, investing too heavily and praying for long touchdowns is a risky proposition. The real ace in Kaepernick's pocket is the prospect of more rushing production. Some progression is likely; the team greatly scaled back his called runs in 2014, and there are indications the new offense will reverse that. Also note that Kaepernick scored nine touchdowns on his first 157 rushes, but just one among last year's 104. Again, though, this level of progression is essential for Kaepernick's value, not merely a fun bonus. Most likely, Kaepernick will continue to yo-yo wildly, flirting with QB1 weeks and posting useless 150-yard outings. He's a far better best-ball option than redraft, but his upside projections make him one of the more attractive stabs among the QB2 crowd.
Andrew Luck - Andrew Luck began his highly anticipated career with two back to back seasons of 23 touchdown passes before exploding for 40 last year. Many expected him to take a sizable leap forward in 2014, so they weren't surprised when he finished the year as the top ranked quarterback in the league. Luck has risen to the top of the quarterback mountain in just his third year as a pro. The expectations for 2015 are high once again and they're backed by a prominent supporting cast of receivers that includes free agent signee and future Hall of Fame candidate Andre Johnson. The addition of Johnson, plus T.Y. Hilton combined with the youth of rookie Philip Dorsett, Duron Carter and Donte Moncrief, give the Colts an edge on offense. Expect Luck to be among the best fantasy quarterbacks in the game on a weekly basis. He should be one of the highest priced daily options and likely one of the first two quarterbacks off the board in your draft.
Ryan Tannehill - 2015 has the potential to be a big year for Ryan Tannehill - for good or ill. While he has improved statistically every year, there is still some refinement required for his game to really be as good as he seems to have the potential to make it. Tannehill has all the tools to create a huge season. The Dolphins went out and signed Greg Jennings and traded for Kenny Stills - two big-time veteran receivers who should open up the field for Tannehill. They also acquired Jordan Cameron at tight end, and if he stays healthy he could be another big weapon in the offense. Jarvis Landry looks like a great player one year in, and they added DeVante Parker in the 2015 NFL Draft. The receiver corps is loaded. The backfield is also very talented and should be able to keep defenses honest. Lamar Miller enters his contract year playing very well and rookie Jay Ajayi could be a great addition if he is healthy. As said above though, Tannehill still has two things which are an issue. First, his deep ball is shaky at best. The longer the throw, the less reliable the accuracy, and his timing can be less than spectacular. Tannehill also was sacked a ton last year, and while some of that was an offensive line racked with injury, some of it was due to Tannehill's propensity for holding the ball too long. He has to read and react quicker and get rid of the ball sooner. If he can do that, he will continue to work towards being one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. The Dolphins are committed - they just signed him to a 6-year, $96 million contract extension. Only $21.5 million is guaranteed and the contract is really a 2-3 year contract so he still needs to prove himself, but it takes some of the pressure off. Right now, Tannehill is a solid quarterback and someone worth a look as a backup or committee choice, and likely available in the late first half of drafts.
Melvin Gordon - The Chargers traded up a few spots to select Melvin Gord0n with the fifteenth pick in the first round. His strength is his ability to break big plays. In his final year at Wisconsin, he led the nation with the most runs of 10-plus yards (60), 20-plus yards (35), 30-plus yards (21), 40-plus yards (17), and 50-plus yards (10). He also rushed for 2,587 yards that season -- second most in FBS history behind only Barry Sanders. He broke LaDainian Tomlinson's single-game collegiate rushing record by running for 408 yards against Nebraska (in three quarters of play). Finally, he set the the career FBS record by averaging 7.79 yards per carry. His weaknesses are that he got stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage on nearly 20% of his runs; he fumbled once every 54.4 touches; and he wasn't used much in the passing game, leading to concerns about his skill as a receiver and as a pass-blocker. Expect Gordon to replace Ryan Mathews as the Chargers' early-down back, likely giving way to Danny Woodhead on most passing downs.
Frank Gore - The Colts signed veteran running back Frank Gore in the offseason and all indications suggest he'll be the primary back in a potent Indianapolis offense. Gore will be 32 when he laces up his cleats for his 11th training camp as a pro and first with a different team other than the 49ers. The league has plenty of aging running backs whose skills diminish after age 30, but Gore bucks the trend. He has played in 148 of a possible 160 regular season games in his career and has totaled 1,000+ yards rushing in eight of the last nine years. The Colts are looking for him to be a veteran presence and be the base of a running game that Trent Richardson struggled to uphold. His strong work ethic and knowledge of the game and position gives the Colts an improvement at running back, compared to 2014 and years prior. Two hundred carries is within reach this year and some believe if the running game takes shape, that number could creep up to 250+ carries. Gore is a durable, safe fantasy running back selection with an RB2 outlook without a high round price tag.
DeMarco Murray - DeMarco Murray dominated the NFL landscape in 2014. After several promising seasons in Dallas that were somewhat limited by nagging injuries, Murray put together a dominant year. Running behind the NFL's best offensive line, Murray led the NFL in carries (392), rushing yards (1,845), rushing TDs (13), and yards from scrimmage (2,261). Murray parlayed his breakthrough season into free agent riches with division rival Philadelphia. Although the Eagles system is different from Dallas', it's worth noting that LeSean McCoy led the NFL in yards two seasons ago under Chip Kelly. There's no reason Murray can't thrive in Philadelphia, as the centerpiece of a unit that's finished Top 5 in points scored in consecutive seasons. Murray's workload will take a step back from last year's 450+ touches -- but that should help keep the powerhouse runner fresh for the stretch run. Murray projects as a top 10 fantasy back, but Kelly's propensity to use all three backs in different roles inhibits Murray from finishing as a top 3 option.
Joseph Randle - Joseph Randle is a difficult player to forecast. After DeMarco Murray departed Dallas in free agency, many expected the Cowboys to draft a new starter or trade for someone like Adrian Peterson. Neither happened. Neither Darren McFadden nor Randle impressed enough in the preseason to confidently say they're going to be fantasy assets. But the quality of the offensive line and Randle's apparent "first man up" status still makes him a worthwhile investment after the first four or five rounds.
Bishop Sankey - If you didn't know any better, you'd think that Bishop Sankey was a player the Tennessee Titans inherited from a previous regime last year. The Titans forced Sankey to earn every snap he played and once he got on the field it became clear why. Sankey was the Titans' best back, but he still failed to impress enough to suggest he should be guaranteed his starting spot in 2015. The addition of rookie David Cobb looms large.
Nelson Agholor - When Jeremy Maclin opted against re-signing with the Eagles and took free agent riches from Kansas City, it was a foregone conclusion the team would draft a receiver early. Nelson Agholor was taken in the 1st round out of USC, and appears to be a solid fit for Kelly's spread offense. In three seasons at USC, Agholor caught 179 receptions for 2,571 yards and 20 touchdowns. He was also a dynamic punt returner (37 returns for 548 yards and 4 touchdowns). Agholor has great hands, showed an ability to handle tight coverage at USC, and is a threat in the open field after the catch. Don't expect Agholor to match last year's stellar rookie class, but he can contribute immediately as a 3rd receiver or flex option.
Vincent Jackson - After peaking in 2012, Vincent Jackson has logged consecutive declining seasons. Mike Evans also emerged as a 2014 rookie to seize the lead receiver job in Tampa Bay. Jackson still surpassed 1,000 yards for the fourth straight season with Josh McCown struggling mightily under center. Jackson's two touchdowns in 2014 marked his lowest total since his sparse opportunities of 2005. With a 12% career touchdown rate prior to 2014, expect a rebound for the big-play Jackson in the end zone. Jameis Winston marks a substantial upgrade at quarterback for Jackson, whose large catching radius blends well with Winston's bold decision-making down the field. While no longer the best receiver on his own team, Vincent Jackson has a high weekly ceiling when volume intersects with big play conversions.
Jordan Matthews - Jordan Matthews had the unenviable position of debuting as part of the greatest rookie WR class in NFL history. Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins and Kelvin Benjamin made more headlines, but Matthews answered the call, as well. Playing primarily in the slot, Matthews caught 67 passes for 872 yards and 8 touchdowns. At 6'3", 212 lbs., Matthews is equipped to play outside, as well, but it's clear from training camp and the preseason that Matthews will stay inside for the bulk of snaps in 2015. Jeremy Maclin's departure vaults Matthews into a prominent role this year. Already a polished route runner, Mathews needs to refine his ability to high point balls in tight coverage. Given the consistency of Chip Kelly's offense (Top 5 in both seasons), Matthews is poised to deliver his first 1,000-yard campaign and Top 20 fantasy value.
DeVante Parker - The former Louisville receiver was selected with the No. 14 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, so you have to know the Dolphins love the kid. A long-armed, reliable receiver, Parker is a big guy who can stretch the field. He doesn't play quite as fast as he times, but when the ball is in the air, he will high-point the ball and come down with it. The speed does end up forcing him into situations where he cannot get away from a corner and has to fight for the ball, but he's good at winning those battles. Just after the 2015 NFL Draft, there has been talk in Miami newspapers that he could push Greg Jennings for one of the outside receiving positions. There's been a bit of a crimp put in that plan though as just underwent foot surgery on June 5. Apparently the surgery was performed a a precaution, but you have to be a bit leery for a rookie receiver who already had enough foot issues to warrant going under the knife. He'll miss the rest of OTAs and potentially all of camp. When he does return, he'll be behind on the offense and facing top NFL corners. So it seems as if a lot of targets will still go to Jennings, Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry and tight end Jordan Cameron. He might still be worth a first round rookie pick, or a late round redraft flier, but check your expectations for a guy who will be absent most of the summer.
Allen Robinson - Allen Robinson looks to be the future of the Jaguars WR core. It appears that the Jaguars are ready to move on from their suspended star receiver Justin Blackmon and Robinson is in line to benefit as the teams number one option in the passing game. In his rookie season, Robinson sported a 48/548/2 statline in just 10 games. If he can play a full 16 games in 2015 and build on the chemistry with Blake Bortles, he could be in line for a 70+ reception season and surely will find the endzone a few more times. Robinson as all the measurements at 6'2", 220 lbs to be a big target for Bortles moving forward into their second seasons in the league. Robinson missed the final 6 games last season but in the prior 10 games he was a big favorite of Bortles as he was targeted an average of 8 times per game.
Rob Gronkowski - Rob Gronkowski was (mostly) healthy last season and that, plus his production, got him Comeback Player of the Year honors and a Super Bowl ring. A top fantasy wide receiver in a tight end's body, Gronkowski should continue to be both healthy and productive, likely appearing in 15 or 16 games and putting up another 1,000-plus yard season with double-digit touchdowns. While there are plenty of receivers for quarterback Tom Brady to use, Gronkowski is still one of his favorite targets. The only receiver to have more last season was Julian Edelman, and that was only by three targets. With Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen gone, we don't know how much the Patriots will really run this year either, so we could actually see even more passes. Regardless, Gronkowski is one of the best players in fantasy and could be gone in the first round of many drafts.
Steve Hauschka - Hauschka had another standout fantasy kicking season, finishing in a tie for fourth in total points on the strength of 37 field goal attempts for an offense that only middle of the road in touchdown scoring. While he only made 2 of 4 50+ yard attempts, the Seahawks defense and running game should keep Hauschka among the league leaders in scoring. Fantasy drafters seem to expect that, as Hauschka is going inside of the top 8 in most drafts.
Carolina Panthers - The Panthers were a surprise elite fantasy D/ST in 2013, but they came back to earth for a long stretch of 2014 while they were mired in a six-game losing streak. Bookending that was a solid start and finish, and the team added a dynamic linebacker/safety tweener a la Thomas Davis in the first round of the draft when they took Shaq Thompson. The young secondary started to gel last year, and veteran pickup Charles Tillman should have a thing or two to teach them this offseason. While they won't return to 2013 form without Greg Hardy, if 2014 second-round pick Kony Ealy can show development this year, the defensive line should benefit from improvements in the back seven and make the Panthers a strong matchup play for DFS/streamer and a darkhorse to return to everyweek starter status in redraft leagues.
Seattle Seahawks - The Seahawks D/ST was the no brainer #1 pick in 2014 fantasy drafts, but if they go #1 in 2015 drafts, it's on reputation only. They started slow and finished in the middle of the pack on the strength of a consistent second half that still lacked the feeding frenzy games we had become accustomed to in 2013. The team did still finish #1 in points and yards allowed, and by a good margin in both categories, so in leagues that weight those categories, they are still elite. The personnel of the Legion of Boom is still mostly intact, so the Seahawks could actually be a bit of a bargain if you can land them outside of the top 6-8 D/STs drafted.
Player News (last 7 days)
"Our view" written by footballguys.com's Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom. Click here for all the news around the NFL, updated constantly.Eagles | Nick Foles of interest to Eagles? - Los Angeles Rams QB Nick Foles is expected to be inquired about rejoining the Philadelphia Eagles. Mon Feb 8, 04:16 PM [Link to story]
|Footballguys view: We've seen this report before...by Schefter....before the Super Bowl. The Eagles new head coach Doug Pederson was with the team when they drafted Foles out of Arizona in the third round of the 2012 NFL draft. The Rams benched Foles last year, but it's unclear if they'd even be willing to deal the young quarterback.|
|Footballguys view: Meh. Never say never, but this might still be a possibility. Foles was benched by the Rams late in the 2015 season, and he carries a cap number around $8 million for 2016. It's unclear what the Rams would want in return for Foles.|
|Footballguys view: There are many Eagles fans who are not okay with this. Foles looked great in 2013 when he had 27 touchdowns and only two interceptions under former Eagles head coach Chip Kelly. Since then, it's been downhill for the young quarterback. He was a bust with the Rams, and the team is looking for a new passer to lead the team. Perhaps going back to work with Pederson is the best thing for Foles, but call us skeptical if the move happens.|
|Footballguys view: The Dolphins offensive line has actually been trending in the right direction in limiting sacks even though it is still a problem. New head coach Adam Gase is tasked with finding a combination and scheme that works to unlock Tannehill's abilities. A full year from first-round pick DeVante Parker should help.|
|Footballguys view: Murray staying on the Eagles might not be a best case scenario. New head coach Doug Pederson is in the Andy Reid mold, and just because the Eagles will be forced to keep him due to financial considerations doesn't mean that they'll have to make him a central part of the office. The best case scenario for fantasy players might be that pay cut and trade.|
|Footballguys view: The Eagles have Murray under contract through 2019, and he's got a $7 million cap number in 2016. There's $13 million left in dead money on his contract according to Spotrac.com. Of course Murray is committed to the Eagles because he's getting paid...and he's getting more than he likely would from the open market.|
|Footballguys view: Kapadia is one of the best beat writers in the NFL. We 100 percent believe that Rawls is the franchise back for the Seahawks going forward.|
|Footballguys view: The Cowboys were the ninth ranked running offense in the league according to NFL.com, but they had to rotate in multiple running backs. Sure, the Cowboys would like to have Murray back but not at the price he's going to want.|
|Footballguys view: Whether that would be a wise move on either part is debatable -- Murray looked awful this past season, though it is unclear how much of that was his role in Chip Kelly's ill-conceived scheme, how much was burnout from a massive amount of carries in 2014 and what might have been a loss of ability.|
|Footballguys view: That's a plus for Gronkowski and his knee. We expect him to be the top fantasy tight end again next year.|
|Footballguys view: Olsen is going to get a lot of attention from Denver this weekend but you can expect him to get his no matter what. Olsen is Cam Newton's biggest weapon, and if he's successful the Panthers should be as well.|
|Footballguys view: Given how badly he under performed his contract last year this is not a shock. Murray and the Eagles may also see his role differently with the new coaching staff. We don't expect him to be cut, but clearly the Eagles are thinking twice about keeping his contract level so high. We think he could be a good fit for the new offense, but this season certainly was a massive disappointment.|
|Footballguys view: The Jets may not be interested, but there should be a team out there who might trade for him. It seems like Kaepernick's time in San Francisco is over. Stay tuned.|
|Footballguys view: Fitzpatrick and the Jets are expected to discuss a contract extension in the coming weeks. Jets general manager Mike Maccagnan said he's 'like very much' to re-sign Fitzpatrick this offseason. Even if Fitzpatrick is not the QB of the future, he's likely the QB of the now for the Jets.|