Saras New Purse, rated by footballguys.com
Please note that rate-my-team is a PRESEASON tool. It is still functional as a demo, but the analysis is NOT updated to account for 2015 season-to-date happenings.
QB: Drew Brees, Dak Prescott
RB: Leonard Fournette, Doug Martin, Rob Kelley
WR: Doug Baldwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Eric Decker, Corey Coleman, Marvin Jones
TE: Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham, Evan Engram
PK: Stephen Gostkowski
TD: Kansas City Chiefs
The quarterback position looks good, and we like your overall strength at the tradionally less important positions as well. Despite not being strong at running back and receiver, we think this team should be the league favorite or very close to it.
Nevertheless, we feel compelled to mention that the RB and WR positions make us a bit nervous and are likely to require some attention throughout the year. We'd feel much better if we knew you were committed to scooping up 2017's breakout players at RB and WR. Getting one or more of these would take this team to the next level.
Players we particularly like on this team include Jimmy Graham, Rob Kelley, and Corey Coleman. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.Bottom line:
- With great inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With good inseason management, we think you have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With average inseason management, we think you have a 64 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 3 of 2016:Marvin Jones vs. GB: 205 receiving yards, 2 TD
Doug Baldwin vs. SF: 164 receiving yards, 1 TD
Drew Brees vs. ATL: 376 passing yards, 3 TD
Dak Prescott vs. CHI: 248 passing yards, 2 TD
Jimmy Graham vs. SF: 100 receiving yards, 1 TD
We expect Drew Brees to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #4 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.
Dak Prescott, who we have rated as the #13 QB, is a nice backup and could conceivably emerge as either a starter for your team or, if Brees plays as expected, some tempting trade bait for teams with quarterback troubles.
Incidentally, Prescott has what we project as a good matchup (GB) during Brees's bye.RB Summary:
We have Leonard Fournette ranked #15 at the position, so we don't even necessarily see him as being RB1 worthy in this league. And we also have some doubts about whether your depth at running back is going to make up for it, so we feel this is an area of concern.
Doug Martin is a little below average as a second running back. But Rob Kelley should be a very good third running back.WR Summary:
We like DeAndre Hopkins as a second WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Doug Baldwin is our 13th ranked WR, and we have Hopkins at #14.
We see Eric Decker as an average third receiver; he's a likely flex starter. Corey Coleman is an excellent WR4. Marvin Jones should serve as a very solid fifth receiver.
A quick note about the same-team Baldwin/Jimmy Graham duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.TE Summary:
Obviously, Travis Kelce is a great way to anchor any TE group. We've got him ranked #2 at the position, and by our reckoning he gives you about a 2.1 point advantage over an average team in the first TE slot.
Jimmy Graham looks great as a second tight end --- also probably a frequent flex contributor. Evan Engram should also be solidly above average at TE3.Kicker Summary:
At about 0.8 points per game above average, Stephen Gostkowski is our first ranked kicker, so you're set here.Defense Summary:
The Chiefs are our #5 ranked defense, so you're in good shape here.
Is this a dynasty team? Click here to find out how it might look for 2018 season.
Schedule AnalysisGreen means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.
|Kansas City Chiefs||NE||PHI||LAC||WAS||HOU||PIT||OAK||DEN||DAL||NYG||BUF||NYJ||OAK||LAC||MIA|
- Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.
- Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).
- Week 6 presents serious bye week issues for you: Dak Prescott, Doug Baldwin, and Jimmy Graham are off.
- Week 7 presents moderate bye week issues: DeAndre Hopkins and Marvin Jones are not playing.
- Week 5 presents moderate bye week issues: Drew Brees and Rob Kelley are not playing.
- Leonard Fournette, Eric Decker, and Evan Engram are out in week 8, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.
- In weeks 4, 9, 10, 11, and 12 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.
Potential Free AgentsListed in order of preference. We don't know exactly who is available in your league, but here is a list of players who might be available and could be upgrades over some of your depth players, listed in order of preference. Your players are listed in red for comparison. Players who might not mesh well with the bye weeks of your key players are grayed out.
QB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here. RB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here. WR: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here. TE: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here. PK: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here. TD: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.
Projections and Player Summaries
Drew Brees - Drew Brees led the NFL last season in passing attempts, completions and yardage. He completed 70.0% of his attempts for 5,208 yards and 37 TDs. Over his eleven seasons with the Saints, Brees has enjoyed unparalleled success. He has averaged 4,888 passing yards, 7.73 yards per attempt, a completion rate of 67.8% and 35 touchdowns. He has missed only 2 games out of 176 and even though he turned 38 in January, he has shown no signs of slowing down. This season is the final year of the two-year $44.5 Million contract that he signed just last August, yet Brees recently stated that he thinks he could play several more seasons. This will be the third straight season that Brees has lost a top receiver. He has lost Jimmy Graham (2015), Marques Colston (2016), and Brandon Cooks (2017), but the offense has remained passing focused and ultra productive. Over the past five seasons, the Saints have averaged 664 pass attempts and only 389 rushes. Do they rely so much on the passing offense because their defense performs poorly? Or is the passing game always their strength? This off-season's free agency and draft indicates that the offense could run the ball more often in 2017. The Saints upgraded at Guard signing Larry Warford and drafted an offensive tackle in the first round. They signed free agent Adrian Peterson and drafted Alvin Kamara early in the third round, setting up an even stronger Running Back Committee. It appeared then that a reduction of pass attempts was a strong possibility. However, in June Terron Armstead, their starting left tackle, had shoulder surgery and he is not expected to return till mid-season or even later. Maybe even though they understand they need to balance the offense more to assist their defense, with this loss on the offensive line, it may not be possible. Brees will likely target Michael Thomas frequently. Thomas was outstanding as a rookie a year ago with 92 catches for 1,137 yards and 9 TDs. He will however, draw the top defenders this year. The Saints also have Coby Fleener and Willie Snead returning. That pair produced 1,526 yards and 7 TDs on 152 receptions a year ago. Brees has not finished below QB6 in any season with the Saints. This year at the age of 38, with the loss of Cooks and the off-season running game additions, it is conceivable that he could finish there or lower in 2017.
Dak Prescott - What a difference a year makes. Last season, it took an injury to Kellen Moore for Dak Prescott to see the field (following Tony Romo's injury) and most wondered how a developmental rookie would fare running a veteran-laden offense. We now know the answer as Prescott shocked everyone and turned in an All-Pro caliber season while returning the Cowboys to a top 5 offensive ranking. Prescott completed 67.8% of his passes for 3,667 yards, 23 touchdowns and a mere four interceptions. He also ran for 282 yards and SIX touchdowns and established himself as one of the promising young signal callers in the league. Expectations are sky high entering 2017, as the team returns largely intact particularly at receiver and running back. The right side of the offensive line underwent changes, but the line projects as elite yet again. It's hard to nitpick Prescott's rookie accomplishments, as he didn't suffer from the flaws scouts saw in his collegiate tape. As long as the key cogs (e.g., Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Ezekiel Elliott) remain healthy, Prescott will push for every week fantasy QB1 honors.
Leonard Fournette - The Jaguars are looking like they are taking the same all-in approach with Leonard Fournette at running back this year as they did with Blake Bortles at quarterback in 2014. Fournette was the 4th Overall Pick in this year's NFL Draft and is ready to contribute at the NFL level immediately. In three years (31 games) at LSU, Fournette rushed for 3,830 yards, 40 touchdowns, and averaged 6.2 yards per carry. Jaguars General Manager Dave Caldwell says that the decision to use the fourth overall pick on running back Leonard Fournette was about making the Jaguars a better team immediately. "Leonard's a guy we think can come in and make an immediate impact, we're in a win now mode as we should be." Jacksonville's offensive line has been a question mark for some time now as no running back has averaged 4.0 yards per carry since 2011. As a team they only ran the ball 37 percent of the time in 2016 but that has a lot to do with the team being behind in games. The question on Fournette that everyone wants to know is if he is an NFL three-down-back. In 31 games at LSU he caught 40 passes but yet still managed to drop 8 passes.
Rob Kelley - Kelley led Washington with 168 carries for 704 yards (4.2 per carry) and six rushing touchdowns as a rookie last year. His play was adequate, but the reality is he benefited from a roster of flawed or one-dimensional competitors. Kelley can be functional as a full-time player, but he's better suited to a committee role. Rookie Samaje Perine should push for playing time if he can grasp pass protection. Until then, Kelley has a chance to parlay a strong camp into fantasy RB2 value.
Doug Martin - Doug Martin will miss the first three weeks of the 2017 season due to a 2016 drug policy suspension. Of bigger concern is Martin's anemic 2.9 yards-per-carry last year, his third season of 3.7 yards-per-carry or less in the past four seasons. At 28 years old, Martin is exiting a running back's historical prime age-wise and Tampa Bay has a host of other viable backs. Jacquizz Rodgers is a functional two-way option, Charles Sims is a receiving maven, and Jeremy McNichols was drafted on Day 3 as a Boise State feature back like Doug Martin years ago. The Tampa Bay pass game projects as the dominant focal point of the offense. Martin will heed the opening three weeks and already profiled as a touchdown and volume-dependent option unlikely to log significant production as a receiver.
Doug Baldwin - Baldwin proved the doubters wrong by building on 2015's 100-yard, 14-touchdown campaign with a 94-catch, 1128-yard follow-up. Although his touchdown total was cut in half, he once again produced as a top-10 fantasy receiver. 2016's season was a notable one for Baldwin because he and Jimmy Graham were on the only cogs that functioned to expectation in a Seattle offense that suffered a rash of injuries to its quarterback, running game, and inexperienced offensive line. There's concern that Baldwin's production could drop if the rest of the offense improves. It's a valid possibility if the ground game returns to prominence. If not, a healthy Russell Wilson and the emerging big-play abilities of Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson could combine with Baldwin and Graham to make Seattle a pass-heavy unit. Wilson was the No. 3 fantasy quarterback in 2015, throwing for 4,024 yards and 34 touchdowns. Top passing offenses often have as many as 2-3 options at wide receiver and tight end that earn top-12 production. Considering Baldwin's rapport with Wilson and his reliability to get open everywhere on the field, he's the safest wide receiver in Seattle.
Corey Coleman - Coleman, a first-round pick in 2016, played only 10 games during an injury-riddled rookie season. He'll be looking to improve upon his 33 catches for 413 yards. The low production wasn't all Coleman's fault, as he was behind target hog Terrelle Pryor in the pecking order and receiving those limited looks from a carousel of mediocre quarterbacks. While the quarterback situation won't be fixed, Coleman should be closer to the top of the priority list for targets as Pryor left in free agency and was replaced by free agent signing Kenny Britt. Hue Jackson has called Coleman "the guy," and the team would be best served long-term to help him progress into a number-one receiver.
Eric Decker - The Jets released Decker this spring and the Titans signed the veteran with the expectation of using him as a starter who can play outside and in the slot. Decker is doing just that in training camp. He's a good route runner with skill in traffic and enough speed to get deep with the Titans' play-action offense. His range of outcomes is wide, but all of them are likely in the realm of a fantasy starter in three-receiver formats.
DeAndre Hopkins - DeAndre Hopkins is the primary receiving threat on the Texans and is one year removed from being considered an elite fantasy receiver. He is more than capable of reaching expectations of a WR1 on your roster, especially if he receives decent quarterback play. Last year Hopkins dropped 31 spots in the rankings to finish 37th, which many people cite Brock Osweiler's sub-par play as the reason. Despite the down year, Hopkins finished with 151 targets which was 7th most in the league. The target volume didn't decline, but his yardage totals and failure to consistently get into the end zone did. Many believe rookie Deshaun Watson will be an improvement over Osweiler, which should result in a bounce back season for Hopkins. The degree of Hopkins' level of improvement is dependent on his ability to mesh with Watson, especially in the red zone.
Marvin Jones - Marvin Jones returns as the starter opposite of Golden Tate. Jones was a 5th-round draft pick out of California and spent his first four seasons with Cincinnati. He had a career-high 65 receptions in 2015 for the Bengals, which led to a long-term $40-million dollar contract from the Lions, who envisioned him as their top outside receiver following the retirement of Calvin Johnson. Early in the 2016 season, the signing looked like a home run. Jones exploded out of the gates and led the NFL with 482 receiving yards after four weeks. However, he managed just 448 yards the rest of the season and struggled through drops and nagging injuries late in the season. Despite the drops (which led to a career-low 53.4% catch rate), Jones was able to put up a career high 930 yards and his 16.9 yards per reception was easily a career-high. He has good size and enough speed to be a deep threat. He's shown a knack for making difficult catches and the issue with drops last season are likely an anomaly. In his second season with Detroit, Jones has a solid fantasy WR4 floor plus some upside as a post-hype breakout candidate.
Evan Engram - Giants offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan insists rookie Evan Engram can be a two-way tight end at the NFL level. That may be a tall order for Engram, and a misuse of his potentially elite pass-catching skills. Engram is built like a wide receiver (6'3", 234 lbs.) and tested like one at the NFL Combine. The four-year starter at Ole Miss should present constant mismatches in short- and intermediate zones once he acclimates to the speed of the pros. 2017 fantasy expectations should be tempered, particularly with Brandon Marshall -- essentially the same size and role -- being added to the mix. Longer term Engram is a high priority fantasy asset, but near-term he's better left as a waiver wire option.
Jimmy Graham - Graham's thigh injury was supposed to be a career-altering event, but he returned to the field Week 1 of 2016 and posted his best season in three years as fantasy football's No.2 tight end, including a career-best 14.2 yards per catch average. Almost as surprising as his return from injury has been his improvement as a blocker. He'll never be mistaken for Rob Gronkowski, but Graham has made enough strides that he could become a more versatile option. Russell Wilson was a top-3 fantasy quarterback in 2015 with 34 touchdowns, and he and Graham spent extra time in 2016 developing their on-field rapport. Look for the relationship to produce even more dividends in 2017 now that Wilson is healthy and the interior of the Seahawks offensive line appears stabilized. Expecting anything less than top-3 production from Graham as a fantasy tight end is risky proposition.
Travis Kelce - The Chiefs starting tight end turned his top-five fantasy upside into a reality in 2016, earning his second straight 100-target season and delivering 85 receptions and 1,125 yards--both tops among NFL tight ends. Kelce brings exceptional size and physical gifts to the table, but he has only accounted for 9 of Alex Smith's 35 touchdown tosses during the past 2 years. Part of the issue is Alex Smith. The Chiefs quarterback prefers to find wide-open options rather than squeezing the ball into tight windows that require the receiver to make great rebounds. Kelce has this ability, but it won't be maximized with Smith under center. It's why his touchdown production may continue to be a little lower than its potential. It's worth noting that Kelce may not be ready for camp due to off-season shoulder surgery. However, don't let Kelce's rehabilitation deter you from considering him a top-5 fantasy tight end in 2017.
|Kansas City Chiefs||33||12||16||4||350||19.6||129.9||5|
Player News (last 7 days)
"Our view" written by footballguys.com's Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom. Click here for all the news around the NFL, updated constantly.Jaguars | Leonard Fournette's ankle likely to linger - Jacksonville Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette (ankle) will likely have to deal with his lingering ankle injury the rest of the season, and his workload will be limited during the week before games. Mon Nov 20, 09:31 AM [Link to story]
|Footballguys view: This is no surprise to those who watched Fournette star in college for the LSU Tigers. The ankle/foot problems that plagued him then have followed him to the pros. When at full strength, Fournette can dominate but even if he's banged up and managing the pain the rookie can lead the way on the ground. Fournette said he dealt with throbbing ankle pain in Week 11.|
|Footballguys view: Fournette was strong despite questions about his ankle and a tough rush defense matchup. He should be back to elite RB1 status against the Cardinals next week.|
|Footballguys view: Coleman produced against a tough matchup and in cold conditions that disagreed with him last year. He deserves some WR3/Flex consideration going forward, including next week at Cincinnati.|
|Footballguys view: Engram was quiet on a day that should have been huge because Sterling Shepard was a late scratch with migraines. He's still a good play on Thanksgiving against Washington in a good matchup, but Engram's low floor has come into view in one out of every five games this year.|
|Footballguys view: Jones appeared to fade back into low floor WR3/Flex territory with the return of Kenny Golladay last week, but he was strong downfield this week. He'll tangle with Xavier Rhodes on Thanksgiving and present a boom/bust outlook.|
|Footballguys view: Kelce wasn't able to score, stopping a streak of tight ends finding paydirt against the Giants dating back to last year, but he was still one of the best tight end plays of the week. He might be the most valuable tight end going forward and heading into a matchup with Buffalo.|
|Footballguys view: Lower your expectations for Fournette and know that he carries a lot of risk this week, but err on the side of leaving him in your lineup.|
|Footballguys view: Fournette is more of a boom/bust RB2 than an RB1 this week if he is active because of the tough matchup against the Browns run defense and his ankle problem.|
|Footballguys view: Graham is a TE1 for fantasy owners any time he is on the field. A full participation on Saturday is a sign that he's good to go for Monday night against the Falcons.|
|Footballguys view: It looks like Fournette is a game-time decision for Week 11. Make sure to monitor his status on Sunday morning. If Fournette misses time or is limited, we'd see more from T.J. Yeldon and perhaps even Chris Ivory.|
|Footballguys view: Fournette could be a game-time decision. Even if he is active, he could be limited. TJ Yeldon moves into flex consideration on this news and he'll be an RB2 if Fournette is out. Yeldon appeared to move ahead of Chris Ivory last week. If Fournette is out, Ivory could be worth a flex play.|
|Footballguys view: Coleman isn't a great play this week, but he's worth rostering to see if he can heat up with a stabilized DeShone Kizer.|
|Footballguys view: Graham should be active and raring to go, and will be a solid TE1 against the Falcons this weekend.|
|Footballguys view: It will probably be a week or two before he comes back and the offense isn't great anyway. Expect him to step right in and contribute, but his upside will be limited by his quarterback situation.|
|Footballguys view: They're likely just giving him a little rest. Start him this weekend as Cleveland is just too good a matchup to miss.|
|Footballguys view: Check back to see if Fournette can fully practice later in the week.|
|Footballguys view: Kelley's entire 2017 season seemed to be set back by injury. Without him in the lineup, we'll see rookie Samaje Perine take on a larger role as a battering ram between the tackles. No Kelley means we could see Chris Thompson used more as well.|
|Footballguys view: The Saints are on the winning track this year and are arguably the best team in the NFC. Had things fallen apart in 2017, we could've seen Brees moving on to another opportunity. With the Saints pushing for a deep playoff run, we see them keeping Brees in 2018 and beyond.|