Saras New Purse, rated by footballguys.com
Please note that rate-my-team is a PRESEASON tool. It is still functional as a demo, but the analysis is NOT updated to account for 2015 season-to-date happenings.
QB: Drew Brees, Dak Prescott
RB: Leonard Fournette, Doug Martin, Rob Kelley
WR: Doug Baldwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Eric Decker, Corey Coleman, Marvin Jones
TE: Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham, Evan Engram
PK: Stephen Gostkowski
TD: Kansas City Chiefs
The quarterback position looks good, and we like your overall strength at the tradionally less important positions as well. Despite not being strong at running back and receiver, we think this team should be the league favorite or very close to it.
Nevertheless, we feel compelled to mention that the RB and WR positions make us a bit nervous and are likely to require some attention throughout the year. We'd feel much better if we knew you were committed to scooping up 2017's breakout players at RB and WR. Getting one or more of these would take this team to the next level.
Players we particularly like on this team include Jimmy Graham, Rob Kelley, and Corey Coleman. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.Bottom line:
- With great inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With good inseason management, we think you have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With average inseason management, we think you have a 64 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 3 of 2016:Marvin Jones vs. GB: 205 receiving yards, 2 TD
Doug Baldwin vs. SF: 164 receiving yards, 1 TD
Drew Brees vs. ATL: 376 passing yards, 3 TD
Dak Prescott vs. CHI: 248 passing yards, 2 TD
Jimmy Graham vs. SF: 100 receiving yards, 1 TD
We expect Drew Brees to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #4 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.
Dak Prescott, who we have rated as the #13 QB, is a nice backup and could conceivably emerge as either a starter for your team or, if Brees plays as expected, some tempting trade bait for teams with quarterback troubles.
Incidentally, Prescott has what we project as a good matchup (GB) during Brees's bye.RB Summary:
We have Leonard Fournette ranked #15 at the position, so we don't even necessarily see him as being RB1 worthy in this league. And we also have some doubts about whether your depth at running back is going to make up for it, so we feel this is an area of concern.
Doug Martin is a little below average as a second running back. But Rob Kelley should be a very good third running back.WR Summary:
We like DeAndre Hopkins as a second WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Doug Baldwin is our #13 ranked receiver, and we have Hopkins at #14.
We see Eric Decker as an average third receiver; he's a likely flex starter. Corey Coleman is an excellent WR4. Marvin Jones should serve as a very solid fifth receiver.
A quick note about the same-team Baldwin/Jimmy Graham duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.TE Summary:
Obviously, Travis Kelce is a great way to anchor any TE group. We've got him ranked #2 at the position, and by our reckoning he gives you about a 2.1 point advantage over an average team in the first TE slot.
We love Jimmy Graham as a second tight end --- also probably a frequent flex contributor. Evan Engram should also be solidly above average at TE3.Kicker Summary:
At about 0.8 points per game above average, Stephen Gostkowski is our first ranked kicker, so you're set here.Defense Summary:
The Chiefs are our #5 ranked defense, so you're in good shape here.
Is this a dynasty team? Click here to find out how it might look for 2018 season.
Schedule AnalysisGreen means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.
|Kansas City Chiefs||NE||PHI||LAC||WAS||HOU||PIT||OAK||DEN||DAL||NYG||BUF||NYJ||OAK||LAC||MIA|
- Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.
- Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).
- Week 6 presents serious bye week issues for you: Dak Prescott, Doug Baldwin, and Jimmy Graham are off.
- Week 7 presents moderate bye week issues: DeAndre Hopkins and Marvin Jones are not playing.
- Week 5 presents moderate bye week issues: Drew Brees and Rob Kelley are not playing.
- Leonard Fournette, Eric Decker, and Evan Engram are out in week 8, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.
- In weeks 4, 9, 10, 11, and 12 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.
Potential Free AgentsListed in order of preference. We don't know exactly who is available in your league, but here is a list of players who might be available and could be upgrades over some of your depth players, listed in order of preference. Your players are listed in red for comparison. Players who might not mesh well with the bye weeks of your key players are grayed out.
QB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here. RB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here. WR: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here. TE: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here. PK: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here. TD: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.
Projections and Player Summaries
Drew Brees - Drew Brees led the NFL last season in passing attempts, completions and yardage. He completed 70.0% of his attempts for 5,208 yards and 37 TDs. Over his eleven seasons with the Saints, Brees has enjoyed unparalleled success. He has averaged 4,888 passing yards, 7.73 yards per attempt, a completion rate of 67.8% and 35 touchdowns. He has missed only 2 games out of 176 and even though he turned 38 in January, he has shown no signs of slowing down. This season is the final year of the two-year $44.5 Million contract that he signed just last August, yet Brees recently stated that he thinks he could play several more seasons. This will be the third straight season that Brees has lost a top receiver. He has lost Jimmy Graham (2015), Marques Colston (2016), and Brandon Cooks (2017), but the offense has remained passing focused and ultra productive. Over the past five seasons, the Saints have averaged 664 pass attempts and only 389 rushes. Do they rely so much on the passing offense because their defense performs poorly? Or is the passing game always their strength? This off-season's free agency and draft indicates that the offense could run the ball more often in 2017. The Saints upgraded at Guard signing Larry Warford and drafted an offensive tackle in the first round. They signed free agent Adrian Peterson and drafted Alvin Kamara early in the third round, setting up an even stronger Running Back Committee. It appeared then that a reduction of pass attempts was a strong possibility. However, in June Terron Armstead, their starting left tackle, had shoulder surgery and he is not expected to return till mid-season or even later. Maybe even though they understand they need to balance the offense more to assist their defense, with this loss on the offensive line, it may not be possible. Brees will likely target Michael Thomas frequently. Thomas was outstanding as a rookie a year ago with 92 catches for 1,137 yards and 9 TDs. He will however, draw the top defenders this year. The Saints also have Coby Fleener and Willie Snead returning. That pair produced 1,526 yards and 7 TDs on 152 receptions a year ago. Brees has not finished below QB6 in any season with the Saints. This year at the age of 38, with the loss of Cooks and the off-season running game additions, it is conceivable that he could finish there or lower in 2017.
Dak Prescott - What a difference a year makes. Last season, it took an injury to Kellen Moore for Dak Prescott to see the field (following Tony Romo's injury) and most wondered how a developmental rookie would fare running a veteran-laden offense. We now know the answer as Prescott shocked everyone and turned in an All-Pro caliber season while returning the Cowboys to a top 5 offensive ranking. Prescott completed 67.8% of his passes for 3,667 yards, 23 touchdowns and a mere four interceptions. He also ran for 282 yards and SIX touchdowns and established himself as one of the promising young signal callers in the league. Expectations are sky high entering 2017, as the team returns largely intact particularly at receiver and running back. The right side of the offensive line underwent changes, but the line projects as elite yet again. It's hard to nitpick Prescott's rookie accomplishments, as he didn't suffer from the flaws scouts saw in his collegiate tape. As long as the key cogs (e.g., Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Ezekiel Elliott) remain healthy, Prescott will push for every week fantasy QB1 honors.
Leonard Fournette - The Jaguars are looking like they are taking the same all-in approach with Leonard Fournette at running back this year as they did with Blake Bortles at quarterback in 2014. Fournette was the 4th Overall Pick in this year's NFL Draft and is ready to contribute at the NFL level immediately. In three years (31 games) at LSU, Fournette rushed for 3,830 yards, 40 touchdowns, and averaged 6.2 yards per carry. Jaguars General Manager Dave Caldwell says that the decision to use the fourth overall pick on running back Leonard Fournette was about making the Jaguars a better team immediately. "Leonard's a guy we think can come in and make an immediate impact, we're in a win now mode as we should be." Jacksonville's offensive line has been a question mark for some time now as no running back has averaged 4.0 yards per carry since 2011. As a team they only ran the ball 37 percent of the time in 2016 but that has a lot to do with the team being behind in games. The question on Fournette that everyone wants to know is if he is an NFL three-down-back. In 31 games at LSU he caught 40 passes but yet still managed to drop 8 passes.
Rob Kelley - Kelley led Washington with 168 carries for 704 yards (4.2 per carry) and six rushing touchdowns as a rookie last year. His play was adequate, but the reality is he benefited from a roster of flawed or one-dimensional competitors. Kelley can be functional as a full-time player, but he's better suited to a committee role. Rookie Samaje Perine should push for playing time if he can grasp pass protection. Until then, Kelley has a chance to parlay a strong camp into fantasy RB2 value.
Doug Martin - Doug Martin will miss the first three weeks of the 2017 season due to a 2016 drug policy suspension. Of bigger concern is Martin's anemic 2.9 yards-per-carry last year, his third season of 3.7 yards-per-carry or less in the past four seasons. At 28 years old, Martin is exiting a running back's historical prime age-wise and Tampa Bay has a host of other viable backs. Jacquizz Rodgers is a functional two-way option, Charles Sims is a receiving maven, and Jeremy McNichols was drafted on Day 3 as a Boise State feature back like Doug Martin years ago. The Tampa Bay pass game projects as the dominant focal point of the offense. Martin will heed the opening three weeks and already profiled as a touchdown and volume-dependent option unlikely to log significant production as a receiver.
Doug Baldwin - Baldwin proved the doubters wrong by building on 2015's 100-yard, 14-touchdown campaign with a 94-catch, 1128-yard follow-up. Although his touchdown total was cut in half, he once again produced as a top-10 fantasy receiver. 2016's season was a notable one for Baldwin because he and Jimmy Graham were on the only cogs that functioned to expectation in a Seattle offense that suffered a rash of injuries to its quarterback, running game, and inexperienced offensive line. There's concern that Baldwin's production could drop if the rest of the offense improves. It's a valid possibility if the ground game returns to prominence. If not, a healthy Russell Wilson and the emerging big-play abilities of Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson could combine with Baldwin and Graham to make Seattle a pass-heavy unit. Wilson was the No. 3 fantasy quarterback in 2015, throwing for 4,024 yards and 34 touchdowns. Top passing offenses often have as many as 2-3 options at wide receiver and tight end that earn top-12 production. Considering Baldwin's rapport with Wilson and his reliability to get open everywhere on the field, he's the safest wide receiver in Seattle.
Corey Coleman - Coleman, a first-round pick in 2016, played only 10 games during an injury-riddled rookie season. He'll be looking to improve upon his 33 catches for 413 yards. The low production wasn't all Coleman's fault, as he was behind target hog Terrelle Pryor in the pecking order and receiving those limited looks from a carousel of mediocre quarterbacks. While the quarterback situation won't be fixed, Coleman should be closer to the top of the priority list for targets as Pryor left in free agency and was replaced by free agent signing Kenny Britt. Hue Jackson has called Coleman "the guy," and the team would be best served long-term to help him progress into a number-one receiver.
Eric Decker - The Jets released Decker this spring and the Titans signed the veteran with the expectation of using him as a starter who can play outside and in the slot. Decker is doing just that in training camp. He's a good route runner with skill in traffic and enough speed to get deep with the Titans' play-action offense. His range of outcomes is wide, but all of them are likely in the realm of a fantasy starter in three-receiver formats.
DeAndre Hopkins - DeAndre Hopkins is the primary receiving threat on the Texans and is one year removed from being considered an elite fantasy receiver. He is more than capable of reaching expectations of a WR1 on your roster, especially if he receives decent quarterback play. Last year Hopkins dropped 31 spots in the rankings to finish 37th, which many people cite Brock Osweiler's sub-par play as the reason. Despite the down year, Hopkins finished with 151 targets which was 7th most in the league. The target volume didn't decline, but his yardage totals and failure to consistently get into the end zone did. Many believe rookie Deshaun Watson will be an improvement over Osweiler, which should result in a bounce back season for Hopkins. The degree of Hopkins' level of improvement is dependent on his ability to mesh with Watson, especially in the red zone.
Marvin Jones - Marvin Jones returns as the starter opposite of Golden Tate. Jones was a 5th-round draft pick out of California and spent his first four seasons with Cincinnati. He had a career-high 65 receptions in 2015 for the Bengals, which led to a long-term $40-million dollar contract from the Lions, who envisioned him as their top outside receiver following the retirement of Calvin Johnson. Early in the 2016 season, the signing looked like a home run. Jones exploded out of the gates and led the NFL with 482 receiving yards after four weeks. However, he managed just 448 yards the rest of the season and struggled through drops and nagging injuries late in the season. Despite the drops (which led to a career-low 53.4% catch rate), Jones was able to put up a career high 930 yards and his 16.9 yards per reception was easily a career-high. He has good size and enough speed to be a deep threat. He's shown a knack for making difficult catches and the issue with drops last season are likely an anomaly. In his second season with Detroit, Jones has a solid fantasy WR4 floor plus some upside as a post-hype breakout candidate.
Evan Engram - Giants offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan insists rookie Evan Engram can be a two-way tight end at the NFL level. That may be a tall order for Engram, and a misuse of his potentially elite pass-catching skills. Engram is built like a wide receiver (6'3", 234 lbs.) and tested like one at the NFL Combine. The four-year starter at Ole Miss should present constant mismatches in short- and intermediate zones once he acclimates to the speed of the pros. 2017 fantasy expectations should be tempered, particularly with Brandon Marshall -- essentially the same size and role -- being added to the mix. Longer term Engram is a high priority fantasy asset, but near-term he's better left as a waiver wire option.
Jimmy Graham - Graham's thigh injury was supposed to be a career-altering event, but he returned to the field Week 1 of 2016 and posted his best season in three years as fantasy football's No.2 tight end, including a career-best 14.2 yards per catch average. Almost as surprising as his return from injury has been his improvement as a blocker. He'll never be mistaken for Rob Gronkowski, but Graham has made enough strides that he could become a more versatile option. Russell Wilson was a top-3 fantasy quarterback in 2015 with 34 touchdowns, and he and Graham spent extra time in 2016 developing their on-field rapport. Look for the relationship to produce even more dividends in 2017 now that Wilson is healthy and the interior of the Seahawks offensive line appears stabilized. Expecting anything less than top-3 production from Graham as a fantasy tight end is risky proposition.
Travis Kelce - The Chiefs starting tight end turned his top-five fantasy upside into a reality in 2016, earning his second straight 100-target season and delivering 85 receptions and 1,125 yards--both tops among NFL tight ends. Kelce brings exceptional size and physical gifts to the table, but he has only accounted for 9 of Alex Smith's 35 touchdown tosses during the past 2 years. Part of the issue is Alex Smith. The Chiefs quarterback prefers to find wide-open options rather than squeezing the ball into tight windows that require the receiver to make great rebounds. Kelce has this ability, but it won't be maximized with Smith under center. It's why his touchdown production may continue to be a little lower than its potential. It's worth noting that Kelce may not be ready for camp due to off-season shoulder surgery. However, don't let Kelce's rehabilitation deter you from considering him a top-5 fantasy tight end in 2017.
|Kansas City Chiefs||33||12||16||4||350||19.6||129.9||5|
Player News (last 7 days)
"Our view" written by footballguys.com's Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom. Click here for all the news around the NFL, updated constantly.Jaguars | Leonard Fournette scores again - Jacksonville Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette rushed for 59 yards and one touchdown on 17 carries against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3. He also caught three passes for 21 yards during the game. Sun Sep 24, 12:35 PM [Link to story]
|Footballguys view: For the second straight week, Fournette was bailed out in fantasy by a garbage time score, but this time, his team was in control of the game. He'll be in all of our lineups next week against the Jets.|
|Footballguys view: Samaje Perine has some flex appeal in what could be a high-scoring game against the Raiders tonight. Kelley's injury isn't severe, so he could return next week against the Chiefs.|
|Footballguys view: Hopkins has 29 targets through Week 2, making him easily the most targeted receiver in the league through two games. The Texans don't need to hide him, they just need to find ways to get him the football.|
|Footballguys view: It's only a matter of time really. Bryant and Prescott will benefit from a bruising rushing attack led by Ezekiel Elliott. When the team can't run the ball (see Week 2 vs Denver), then it complicates the entire offense. We like Bryant as a low-end WR2 or flex play on Monday night against the Cardinals.|
|Footballguys view: If Kelley is out, Samaje Perine will be a solid RB2 play, but will still yield to Chris Thompson on passing downs.|
|Footballguys view: Engram is safe to play as a solid TE1 who appears to be ready to defy the usual cap on rookie tight end production. Travis Kelce had a huge game against the Eagles defense last week, so the openings could be there in the middle of the pass defense.|
|Footballguys view: Kelley should play Sunday night, but he might not get his full workload. Samaje Perine would help with the running game if Kelley can't handle 15-20 carries.|
|Footballguys view: Graham is likely to be active, but he might play limited snaps or be of limited effectiveness. Luke Willson would get extra snaps or targets at tight end, but Tyler Lockett is also a player that could benefit from Graham's injury.|
|Footballguys view: Engram had gotten some practice time in this week but it is still difficult to expect him to play only six days after suffering a concussion. Matt LaCosse, Jerell Adams, and Rhett Ellison will pick up the slack if Engram is out Sunday.|
|Footballguys view: Graham is looking iffy for Week 3 and he hasn't been productive before he got hurt anyway. Look elsewhere for your tight end this week.|
|Footballguys view: Kelley might play a bit but Jordan Reed is the guy who will see the most targets. If you aren't starting Reed, there's no point in starting a Washington tight end.|
|Footballguys view: If Engram plays, he could be a decent start this week, as he was the only thing which looked good in the whole Giants offense against Detroit. That said, his targets only slightly went up, while both his catches and yards stayed static. The difference is the touchdown, which makes him a little boom or bust. He's a decent TE2, with the upside for more.|
|Footballguys view: He said he will wear a pad over his ribs to protect them if he is active for Week 3. If Kelley plays, it hurts the fantasy value of Chris Thompson and Samaje Perine.|
|Footballguys view: Neither Decker or Matthews are likely to do much against the Seahawks on Sunday. It helps that they're at home in Week 3, but fantasy owners should just consider either one a WR3 or flex play.|
|Footballguys view: Engram is in the concussion protocol, and part of that includes wearing a helmet and observing practice. It's Wednesday and Engram is limited, so that's a good sign for his availability in Week 3 although he's certainly not guaranteed to play. The Giants offense is struggling, but the rookie TE from Ole Miss has eight catches for 93 yards and a touchdown in two games.|
|Footballguys view: Kelley's injury is not as serious as once thought. Rib injuries are painful to play with but not impossible to overcome in a short period of time. With Kelley a little dinged, we could see more from receiving back Chris Thompson and their powerful backup Samaje Perine.|
|Footballguys view: It's not just the ankle, Graham is likely to be a game-time decision due to knee issues as well. Fantasy owners need to make other plans if they had Graham as their top tight end. Not only is he battling multiple injuries, the Seahawks offense hasn't looked great so far in 2017.|
|Footballguys view: Opponents know the Jaguars want to run the rock and keep the ball out of the hands of QB Blake Bortles. They are responding by loading the box and daring the Jaguars to throw. If a game goes according to plan, Fournette is going to get plenty of work and he has no problem slamming it against an 8-man front all day. When games go off script (see Week 2 vs Tennessee), the running backs are put on the back burner.|
|Footballguys view: That makes a lot of sense as the other WRs for the Texans are either hurt or avergae at best. Feed the machine, and rookie QB Deshaun Watson should have an absolute mandate to feature Hopkins early and often when going to the air.|
|Footballguys view: Coleman could return later this year after having surgery to repair his hand injury on Monday. He'll be able to practice with the team in six weeks and could return in eight weeks. While Coleman is out, the Browns may end up turning mostly to Rashard Higgins. Activated off the practice squad last week, Higgins had a solid day in Week 2 (seven catches, 95 yards). The 2016 fifth-round pick (Colorado State) can make crazy catches seem routine and seems to be the favorite target while Coleman is hurt and Kenny Britt continues to disappoint.|
|Footballguys view: Prescott was beat up by the Broncos defense all day on Sunday. He was bent over awkwardly during one of those hits but was able to stay in the game. Prescott has an ankle injury but should be able to play in a better matchup against the Cardinals in Week 3.|
|Footballguys view: Prescott was bent awkwardly against the Broncos on Sunday. The Cowboys are lucky the injury was not more severe because it looked incredibly painful when it happened. Prescott will likely be limited in practice this week, but for now fantasy owners should plan on him playing in Week 3 against the Cardinals.|
|Footballguys view: Ribs injuries are painful and difficult to play through. Kelley is no lock to play in Week 3, and that opens the door for rookie Samaje Perine to be the team's lead back. Chris Thompson has great value in PPR leagues as a pass-catching option who can make big plays anytime he touches the ball. We'll know more about Kelley's availability later in the week.|
|Footballguys view: He is a candidate to be placed on the Reserve/Injured list, but he would be able to return this season. Kenny Britt isn't doing much with the Browns, so Rashard Higgins may be the player who emerges as a primary target for the passing game.|
|Footballguys view: Coleman's right hand is the same on he broke last season that caused him to miss six games. That injury did not require surgery, however. A timetable for his recovery was not disclosed.|
|Footballguys view: Graham has been downright awful to begin the season. The Seahawks offense in general hasn't been anything to write home about in 2017. If Graham misses time with this ankle injury, Luke Willson will step into a larger role.|
|Footballguys view: This is the same injury that forced Coleman to miss six games in 2016. It's a blow to the Browns passing game, and it looks like Rashard Higgins (just activated off the practice squad last week) could be their leading receiver while Coleman is down.|
|Footballguys view: Fournette got the score when the game was out of hand, so his owners should consider themselves lucky. He'll be a boom/bust RB2 in a tough matchup against the Ravens next week.|
|Footballguys view: Coleman is feared to have a broken hand (again). He won't be worth carrying if he's gone for 4-6 weeks.|
|Footballguys view: Kelley was running very well before his injury, but might not be able to go next week against the Raiders. Samaje Perine would get the start but Chris Thompson is the hotter back and will also be a coveted pickup.|
|Footballguys view: Kelce wasn't contained by the Eagles defense and keyed the passing game for the Chiefs. He'll face the Chargers next week as the #1 fantasy tight end if Rob Gronkowski is out.|