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Your team is currently being rated by the projections of Jason Wood           Switch to: David Dodds       Maurile Tremblay       Bob Henry      


QB: Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles
RB: Doug Martin, Thomas Rawls, Duke Johnson, LeGarrette Blount
WR: A.J. Green, Amari Cooper, Randall Cobb, Tyler Lockett, DeVante Parker
TE: Julius Thomas
PK:
TD: Kansas City Chiefs

Overview:

In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.

Footballguys owner David Dodds even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late. Value-Based Drafting principles also suggest that teams constructed in this manner end up being strong. But for this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help. Last year Blake Bortles could be had very cheap in August, but ended up contributing to a lot of fantasy championships. In 2014 it was Ben Roethlisberger; in 2013 it was Nick Foles. Quarterbacks like these can be found every year, and that could be the key to your team's success.

So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.

Players we particularly like on this team include Duke Johnson, A.J. Green, Tyler Lockett, LeGarrette Blount, and the Chiefs defense. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:
  • With great inseason management, we think you have about a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With good inseason management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With average inseason management, we think you have a 54 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 13 of 2015:

Blake Bortles vs. TEN: 322 passing yards, 5 TD
A.J. Green vs. CLE: 128 receiving yards, 1 TD
Thomas Rawls vs. MIN: 123 combined yards, 1 TD
Jameis Winston vs. ATL: 227 passing yards, 2 TD
Doug Martin vs. ATL: 100 combined yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:

We have Jameis Winston rated #11 among quarterbacks, which makes him a less-than-stellar starter in this league. But we like the selection of our #14-rated QB, Blake Bortles, to go with him. Hopefully between the two of them, you should be able to cobble together some good production at the position, but this strategy always carries with it the downside that you'll drive yourself crazy trying to decide who to start from week to week.

Incidentally, these two have a pretty nice combined schedule and a decent playoff schedule too. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:

GB | SD | BAL | IND | CAR | CHI | OAK | TEN | KC | CHI | DET | BUF | SD | NO | HOU | NO

A quick note about the same-team Winston/Doug Martin duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.

RB Summary:

Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Thomas Rawls as a second running back. Our projections have Doug Martin ranked at #7 and Rawls ranked at #15.

Your bench also looks good. Duke Johnson looks great as a third running back; he's a likely flex starter. LeGarrette Blount is also a very nice RB4.

WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 3.1 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. A.J. Green is our #4 ranked receiver, Amari Cooper is #15, and we have Randall Cobb 22nd.

Your bench also looks good. Tough to do better than Tyler Lockett at WR4. Likewise, DeVante Parker should be excellent at WR5.

TE Summary:

With only Julius Thomas, who we don't think is starter-quality in this league, this position is likely to be a trouble spot for you all season.

Kicker Summary:

Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

Defense Summary:

The Chiefs are our #5 ranked defense, so you're in good shape here.


Is this a dynasty team? Click here to find out how it might look for 2017 season.


Schedule Analysis

Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

12345678910111213141516
Blake BortlesGBSDBALINDCHIOAKTENKCHOUDETBUFDENMINHOUTEN
Jameis WinstonATLARILADENCARSFOAKATLCHIKCSEASDNODALNO
 
LeGarrette BlountARIMIAHOUBUFCLECINPITBUFSEASFNYJLABALDENNYJ
Duke JohnsonPHIBALMIAWASNETENCINNYJDALBALPITNYGCINBUFSD
Doug MartinATLARILADENCARSFOAKATLCHIKCSEASDNODALNO
Thomas RawlsMIALASFNYJATLARINOBUFNEPHITBCARGBLAARI
 
Randall CobbJAXMINDETNYGDALCHIATLINDTENWASPHIHOUSEACHIMIN
Amari CooperNOATLTENBALSDKCJAXTBDENHOUCARBUFKCSDIND
A.J. GreenNYJPITDENMIADALNECLEWASNYGBUFBALPHICLEPITHOU
Tyler LockettMIALASFNYJATLARINOBUFNEPHITBCARGBLAARI
DeVante ParkerSEANECLECINTENPITBUFNYJSDLASFBALARINYJBUF
 
Julius ThomasGBSDBALINDCHIOAKTENKCHOUDETBUFDENMINHOUTEN
 
Kansas City ChiefsSDHOUNYJPITOAKNOINDJAXCARTBDENATLOAKTENDEN
 
Relative Strength101991009991901041071029910799101101100102

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

  • Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.
  • Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).
  • Week 6 presents serious bye week issues for you: Jameis Winston and Doug Martin are off.
  • Week 5 presents serious bye week issues for you: Blake Bortles, Thomas Rawls, Tyler Lockett, Julius Thomas, and Kansas City Chiefs are off.
  • In weeks 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.


Potential Free Agents

Listed in order of preference. We don't know exactly who is available in your league, but here is a list of players who might be available and could be upgrades over some of your depth players, listed in order of preference. Your players are listed in red for comparison. Players who might not mesh well with the bye weeks of your key players are grayed out.


QB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

RB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

WR: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

TE: Zach Ertz (4), Jason Witten (7), Tyler Eifert (9), Antonio Gates (11), Martellus Bennett (9), Eric Ebron (10), Julius Thomas (5), Jared Cook (4), Virgil Green (11), Dwayne Allen (10).

PK: Steve Hauschka (5), Brandon McManus (11), Blair Walsh (), Adam Vinatieri (10), Cairo Santos (5), Dan Carpenter (10), Josh Brown (), Connor Barth (9), Matt Bryant (11), Matt Prater (10), Caleb Sturgis (4), Mike Nugent (), Roberto Aguayo (6), Nick Novak (9), Wil Lutz (5), Greg Zuerlein (8), Josh Lambo (11), Phil Dawson (8), Jason Myers (5).

TD: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.


Projections and Player Summaries

PlayerCmpAttYDY/ATDINTRshYDTDFPTRank
Jameis Winston33854842457.72414502254352.811
Blake Bortles33556540557.22717452552339.214

Blake Bortles - Blake Bortles is in one of the more interesting quarterback situations as he enters into his third season in the league. The Jaguars offense is built around young players in the same situation as Bortles and they have been all developing together over the past two seasons. The trio of Bortles at quarterback and wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns has the make up of a fantasy gold mine. Bortles threw for 4,428 yards and 35 touchdown passes a year ago with 24 of those touchdowns going to Robinson and Hurns. The Jaguars also have a solid running game that will help out the passing game as T.J. Yeldon looks to stay fresh with the signing of Chris Ivory. As the running game gets better the passing game will also improve and Bortles should be able to cut back on his 35 interceptions he has thrown over his first 30 NFL games. Bortles also has some rushing ability when he needs an escape, as he has 729 rushing yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns over his first two seasons. The Jaguars haven't always been a favorite to target in Fantasy but they currently are showing all the signs as one of the teams to watch going forward.

Jameis Winston - Jameis Winston started all 16 games as a rookie, showing acumen from the pocket and using his mobility through a tough 6-10 record. Despite having only Mike Evans in terms of notable weaponry at times during the season, Winston has average or better advanced efficiency and metrics across the board. Winston navigated the pocket well, took only 27 sacks, and excelled on the ground, especially in the red zone. Winston's 4,042 passing yards were the third-most of any rookie quarterback in NFL history, behind only Cam Newton and Andrew Luck. In terms of pass targets, Winston's weapons have not changed from a year ago. Charles Sims offers an elite pass-catching skillset out of the backfield. Mike Evans enters his third NFL season. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a physical talent, but still a projection in terms of solidifying a string of health and consistent play. Vincent Jackson is a key component, who missed a chunk of the season in 2015 and offers another mismatch on the outside to complement Jameis Winston's bold downfield style and panache for the big play. In addition to a broader collection of targets and a second-year progression by Winston, the sophomore quarterback can also benefit from Tampa Bay's offensive line improving on their NFL-average level pass protection rating in 2015.

PlayerRshYDY/RshTDRecYDTDFPTRank
Doug Martin29013504.78302501223.07
Thomas Rawls25012004.87232101196.515
Duke Johnson1456004.14574852171.021
LeGarrette Blount2008504.3810750141.535

LeGarrette Blount - The New England Patriots didn't bring in a big back to compete with LeGarrette Blount, so he'll continue to grind down defenses on early downs and in short yardage situations this year for the team. Despite missing four games, Blount had his second best seasons as a Patriot, totaling 4.3 yards per carry on his way to a 703 yard total. That's not bad considering the Patriots threw twice as often as they ran in 2015. Also, nobody came close to Blount's total carries (165), with Brandon Bolden the next most frequent runner (63 carries). Blount will get most of the work this year if he's healthy, but will be limited by overall role and lack of opportunity compared to other lead backs. That limitation keeps him more in the range of a backup with upside.

Duke Johnson - When Johnson entered the league last season, it was known that he was an excellent pass-catching back in college. His rookie year did not disappoint in that regard, as he finished with 61 catches. Johnson has already been complimented by new head coach Hue Jackson, saying that the duo he forms with Isaiah Crowell is a very good one. Jackson said that Johnson can do many things to give an offense a boost. Expect those compliments to turn into Johnson being used in a multitude of ways. Johnson should see at least as many targets and catches as he did in 2015, especially when considering Cleveland's lackluster receiving corps.

Doug Martin - Doug Martin returns to Tampa Bay with a new contract, one with the fourth-most guaranteed money at running back in the NFL. Martin is coming off a career year, logging a high-water mark of 4.9 yards-per-carry and staying healthy for all 16 games. Martin mired through injuries in 2013 and 2014 after his historically-strong rookie season in 2012. Martin has lost passing game appeal since the arrival of Charles Sims, a dominant pass-catcher dating back to his collegiate career. Martin was aided by a strong run-blocking offensive line in Tampa Bay in 2015, a top-10 unit by efficiency metrics at FootballOutsiders.com. Martin is a hard-charging back relying on top effort more than an innate physical talent. Entering his 27-year-old season, Martin will look to hang on to his prime production window like similar career arc backs Garrison Hearst and Thomas Jones before their late-20s steep decline.

Thomas Rawls - Thomas Rawls is expected to be healthy and ready for the start of the regular season. ESPN's Sheil Kapadia said the team expects Rawls to be their primary ball carrier, the true successor to Marshawn Lynch. Rawls' rookie season was phenomenal as he averaged 5.6 yards per carry on 147 rushing attempts. The only real concern for his outlook is the competition around him. At the very least, C.J. Prosise is set to steal away the majority of his receptions as the third-down back.

PlayerRshYDTDRecYDY/RecTDFPTRank
A.J. Green000100145014.510255.04
Amari Cooper00085121514.38212.015
Randall Cobb00085110012.97194.522
Tyler Lockett0006390014.36157.533
DeVante Parker0005586515.76150.040

Randall Cobb - Randal Cobb finished the 2015 season with 79 receptions for 829 yards and six touchdowns. His stats do not look that bad, however, he was ineffective due in large part to Jordy Nelson's injury and the subsequent reshuffling of the Packers receivers. Cobb is best suited in the slot and he depends on one on coverage to do his damage, something that he did not see much of in 2015. The good news is that Nelson should be healthy by the start of the regular season, which should give Cobb the room underneath to get open and gain yards after the catch. His 2014 season is a prime example of his upside, making him an interesting option at his current ADP (3.6).

Amari Cooper - Drafted fourth overall in the 2015 draft, Cooper burst onto the scene with a pair of 100-yard receiving games in his first three contests. While he cooled off down the stretch, Cooper had a tremendous rookie season overall. He caught 72 passes for 1,070 yards and six touchdowns. His route-running ability as a 21-year old rookie was exceptional. Cooper also proved to be one of the league's most dangerous players with the ball in his hands; he turned a number of short catches into big plays with his 4.4-speed and ability to make defenders miss in space. Cooper also proved surprisingly adept at winning contested balls. While not big (6'1, 205 pounds), he has long arms and good leaping ability that allow him to high point the ball against tight coverage. Cooper hit the proverbial "rookie wall" in the second-half of the season, though. He suffered some ugly drops and did not adjust well to the increased attention he received from opposing defenses. Teams were able to take away many of the short screen passes that Cooper thrived on in the first-half of the season. The low point was an eight-target, zero-catch game in December against the rival Broncos. But Cooper bounced back the following week with a big 120-yard, two touchdown performance against the Packers. As he heads into his second season, expectations are sky high for Cooper. He is being drafted as a WR1 and has the skills and mentality needed to live up to the hype. He could emerge as one of the league's top stars in 2016.

A.J. Green - Green is five-for-five in recording 1,000-yard seasons in his career. A true target hog, Green has averaged over eight looks per game in his last four seasons. The departures of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu could lead to slightly more of a workload for Green too if Andy Dalton can't build rapport with new acquisition Brandon LaFell and rookie Tyler Boyd. Regardless of which pedestrian talent will be across from him, Green has always excelled and never had a high-quality starter on the opposite side. Cincinnati's offense could also be more pass-focused this season with the change from Hue Jackson to Ken Zampese at offensive coordinator. Jackson is known for being a proponent of the run. Zampese is the team's former quarterbacks coach and worked under Mike Martz in his pass-happy St. Louis days. Regardless of scheme, Green will get plenty of targets and receptions, as has always been the case in his career throughout multiple scheme changes, no help at the receiver position, and spotty-at-times quarterback play.

Tyler Lockett - Tyler Lockett could be the Seahawks number one receiver by the end of 2016. Lockett is a phenomenal talent with breakaway speed. He repeatedly showed that off as a rookie, though Russell Wilson was uncharacteristically inconsistent with his deep passes last year. Lockett should share the field with Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse a lot more than he stands on the sideline, so it won't matter much for his fantasy value if Baldwin and Kearse are officially listed ahead of him.

DeVante Parker - There's a really good chance DeVante Parker will have a breakout year for Miami, as he moves to the X spot in Adam Gase's offense. That position sees a lot of work in this scheme and we've seen big years from receivers like Demaryius Thomas and Alshon Jeffery in it. That's not to say Parker is the equivalent of either of those players, but merely points out the opportunity for an explosive year. Parker has great hands and body control, and could also serve as a nice red zone target. Some of his value is, of course, attached to the continued improvement of Ryan Tannehill, but we think he could serve as a decent secondary wide receiver for owners.

PlayerRecYDY/RecTDFPTRank
Julius Thomas5760510.65119.014

Julius Thomas - Julius Thomas was the Jaguars big splash in free agency a year ago and played well in the 12 games for his new team last year. Thomas missed four games on the year as he recovered from hand surgery. He was an excellent red zone threat for the Jaguars, scoring 5 touchdowns in those 12 games while picking up 46 receptions for 455 yards. If Thomas can remain healthy for the entire 2016 season the Jaguars offense will have one more target to keep defenses on their heels. Thomas had a touchdown streak in Weeks 11-14 last season where he caught touchdowns in each game. His two prior seasons with the Broncos he showed that he can score touchdowns as he had 24 touchdowns in 27 games. A healthy Thomas entering 2016 will do a world of good for Blake Bortles offense as he can start to spread the ball around even more and Thomas can be a big threat right next to Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns.

PlayerSackFRINTTDYd/GPt/GFPTRank
Kansas City Chiefs43817433919.2136.15


Player News (last 7 days)

"Our view" written by footballguys.com's Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom. Click here for all the news around the NFL, updated constantly.

Browns | Duke Johnson in top-five in targets for RBs - Cleveland Browns RB Duke Johnson was targeted 74 times this past season, placing him fifth amongst running backs in that category. He turned those targets into 53 receptions for 514 yards, though he did not record a receiving touchdown. Tue Feb 21, 11:19 PM

Dolphins | Julius Thomas wanted to reunite with old OC - Updating a previous report, Miami Dolphins TE Julius Thomas restructured his contract in order to land with the Dolphins because he wanted to reunite with head coach Adam Gase, who was his old offensive coordinator with the Denver Broncos. Mon Feb 20, 11:09 PM     [Link to story]

Footballguys view: Thomas did his best work with Gase running the offense in Denver. Now that they're in Miami together, we could see some of that old spark. However, Thomas has never played a full 16-game season as a pro and fantasy owners need to be ready if (when?) he gets hurt again. Thomas is a TE2 with TE1 upside in Miami.

Dolphins | Julius Thomas reworks deal - Miami Dolphins impending TE Julius Thomas agreed to restructure his contract as part of his trade from the Jacksonville Jaguars to the Dolphins, according to a source. Thomas was scheduled to count $8.3 million against the salary cap in 2017, $9.8 million in 2018 and $10.3 million in 2019 before the restructuring. Mon Feb 20, 06:46 PM     [Link to story]

Footballguys view: That was part of the deal as Thomas' price tag was just too high. The Dolphins get another weapon for the passing game, and Thomas is a player who could stand out in the red zone. Reunited with Adam Gase, we'll consider Thomas a TE2 with TE1 upside in 2017.

Jaguars | Julius Thomas being sent to Miami - Jacksonville Jaguars TE Julius Thomas is being traded to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for a late-round 2017 draft pick Monday, Feb. 20. Mon Feb 20, 05:24 PM     [Link to story]

Footballguys view: So Thomas is on the move to Miami, but it's not for LT Branden Albert. The Jaguars didn't get much out of Thomas, and he still has yet to play a full 16-game season in the pros. With such a rich draft class coming into the league this year, expect the Jags to spend a pick on the position.

Dolphins | Miami acquiring Julius Thomas - Jacksonville Jaguars TE Julius Thomas is being acquired by the Miami Dolphins in exchange for a late-round 2017 draft pick Monday, Feb. 20. Mon Feb 20, 05:16 PM     [Link to story]

Footballguys view: The Dolphins don't send LT Branden Albert to the Jaguars, but they do get Thomas for a late pick. Thomas is reunited with Adam Gase, and he should step in as their lead tight end. He's a receiving weapon when healthy, and Thomas put up the best numbers of his career working under Gase when they were both with the Denver Broncos. Now, Ryan Tannehill is no Peyton Manning, but Thomas should be able to be used to the best of his ability with Gase calling the shots.

Jaguars | Julius Thomas not headed to Miami? - Updating previous reports, Jacksonville Jaguars TE Julius Thomas is no longer a part of the trade package designed to acquire Miami Dolphins OT Branden Albert. Mon Feb 20, 12:38 PM     [Link to story]

Jaguars | Branden Albert visiting Jaguars - Miami Dolphins OT Branden Albert is visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars Monday, Feb. 20, to help facilitate a trade involving TE Julius Thomas. The trade would likely happen if both players agree to new deals. Thomas may need to take a small pay cut, and Albert could receive a bonus. Mon Feb 20, 08:41 AM     [Link to story]

Dolphins | Miami still pursuing Julius Thomas - Miami Dolphins OT Branden Albert could be traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars in exchange for TE Julius Thomas, according to league sources, and Albert said he wouldn't 'ruffle feathers' if he was traded. Sun Feb 19, 07:20 PM     [Link to story]

Footballguys view: If added by the Dolphins, Thomas would be reunited with head coach Adam Gase. He put up the best numbers of his career under Gase during their time with the Broncos. If Thomas can stay healthy, something he's struggled with as a pro, he can be a dangerous weapon for any passing attack.

Dolphins | Julius Thomas an option for Miami? - Jacksonville Jaguars TE Julius Thomas could be included in a trade that would send Miami Dolphins OT Branden Albert to the Jaguars, in the opinion of The Miami Herald's Armando Salguero. Fri Feb 17, 02:51 PM     [Link to story]

Footballguys view: The Dolphins could use some help at the tight end position, and Thomas has experience working with head coach Adam Gase from their time with the Denver Broncos. It seems like the Jaguars are the front-runners for Albert at this time.

Buccaneers | Doug Martin still in Bucs' plans? - Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Doug Martin was expected to be released or traded before the 2017 NFL season, but the front office may be willing to keep Martin around and 'play the situation out,' according to Roy Cummings, of FloridaFootballInsiders.com. Martin is suspended the first three games of 2017 and will not cost the team any money if he is indeed released. Thu Feb 16, 01:23 PM     [Link to story]

Footballguys view: The Bucs will play this close to the vest in case they can trade him. Even if they want to cut him, they won't say it. That said, cutting him or trading him are real possibilities and so expect them to show interest in some free agents this offseason, and draft prospects this April. We think Martin could have a lot of value elsewhere, but being out for three weeks will reduce any fantasy value considerably.