Your team, rated by footballguys.com
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QB: Matt Ryan
RB: LeVeon Bell, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, LeGarrette Blount, Charles Sims
WR: Sammy Watkins, Jordan Matthews, Eric Decker, Willie Snead, Donte Moncrief, Taylor Gabriel
TE: Rob Gronkowski
PK: Adam Vinatieri
TD: Houston Texans
We like your overall strength at the traditionally less important positions, but make no mistake about it: this team is about strength at the running back position. And we think it will be among the top teams in the league. Somewhere Marshall Faulk is smiling.
Nonetheless, we'd be remiss if we didn't at least mention the relative lack of strength at quarterback and receiver. These are usually survivable weaknesses, but we'd feel better if we knew you were committed to zealously scouring the waiver wire for this year's emergent players at QB and WR. Getting a breakout player at one or both of those positions would take your already-good team to the next level.Bottom line:
- With great inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With good inseason management, we think you have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
- With average inseason management, we think you have a 61 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 2 of 2011:Eric Decker vs. CIN: 113 receiving yards, 2 TD
Rob Gronkowski vs. SD: 86 receiving yards, 2 TD
LeGarrette Blount vs. MIN: 71 combined yards, 2 TD
Matt Ryan vs. PHI: 195 passing yards, 4 TD
Matt Forte vs. NO: 166 combined yards
We expect Matt Ryan to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #3 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.
Despite your strong starting quarterback, we recommend taking a backup. See the end of this report for some specific suggestions.RB Summary:
Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.7 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have LeVeon Bell ranked second and Marshawn Lynch ranked 16th.
Matt Forte should be a good third running back; he's a likely flex starter. We also very much approve of the selection of LeGarrette Blount, and not just because you can hold the Jay Ajayi owner hostage. He's a fine fourth running back in his own right.
We're not sure that Charles Sims adds much, as you're already strong at the position and we aren't convinced he's roster-worthy in this league anyway.WR Summary:
We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Sammy Watkins is our #18 ranked receiver, Jordan Matthews is #35, and we have Eric Decker 36th.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Willie Snead should be a good fourth receiver.
Though some teams will probably be content to roster as few as four players here, it was not a bad idea to take a few extras because you're not particularly strong overall at the position. Of your remaining guys, we like Donte Moncrief the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.TE Summary:
As you are well aware, Rob Gronkowski is an elite tight end. We have him ranked first overall at the position. He's about 2.7 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Given your league rules and the presence of Gronkowski, your decision to roll with just one tight end is a reasonable one.Kicker Summary:
Adam Vinatieri, our ninth ranked kicker, won't win the league for you, but he'll do.Defense Summary:
The Texans are our #3 ranked defense, so you're in good shape here.
Is this a dynasty team? Click here to find out how it might look for 2018 season.
Schedule AnalysisGreen means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.
- Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.
- Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).
- Week 5 presents serious bye week issues for you: Matt Ryan, Taylor Gabriel, and Willie Snead are off.
- LeVeon Bell and Rob Gronkowski are out in week 9, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.
- Matt Forte, Charles Sims, Donte Moncrief, and Adam Vinatieri are out in week 11, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.
- Houston Texans is out in week 7, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.
- In weeks 4, 6, 8, 10, and 12 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.
Potential Free AgentsListed in order of preference. We don't know exactly who is available in your league, but here is a list of players who might be available and could be upgrades over some of your depth players, listed in order of preference. Your players are listed in red for comparison. Players who might not mesh well with the bye weeks of your key players are grayed out.
QB: Andrew Luck (11), Joe Flacco (10), Blake Bortles (8), Carson Palmer (8), Jay Cutler (1), DeShone Kizer (9), Sam Bradford (9), Jared Goff (8), Trevor Siemian (5), Brian Hoyer (9), Josh McCown (11), Deshaun Watson (7), Mike Glennon (9), Mitchell Trubisky (9), Tom Savage (7), C.J. Beathard (11), Chad Henne (8), Colin Kaepernick (), Paxton Lynch (5). RB: Jamaal Charles (5), Darren Sproles (10), Thomas Rawls (6), Chris Thompson (5), Wendell Smallwood (10), Shane Vereen (8), C.J. Prosise (6), DeAndre Washington (10), Jacquizz Rodgers (1), Jamaal Williams (8), Jalen Richard (10), Rex Burkhead (9), Robert Turbin (11), Dion Lewis (9), Samaje Perine (5), T.J. Yeldon (8), Tarik Cohen (9), Damien Williams (1), Matt Breida (11). We have all these players rated ahead of Charles Sims. WR: Willie Snead (5), Kenny Britt (9), Zay Jones (6), Marvin Jones (7), Robby Anderson (11), Sterling Shepard (8), Chris Hogan (9), Breshad Perriman (10), Donte Moncrief (11), Ted Ginn (5), Devin Funchess (11), Kevin White (9), Kenny Stills (1), Marqise Lee (8), Cole Beasley (6), Kendall Wright (9), John Brown (8), Tyler Lockett (6), Marquise Goodwin (11). We have all these players rated ahead of Taylor Gabriel. TE: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here. PK: Dustin Hopkins (5), Adam Vinatieri (11), Caleb Sturgis (10), Sebastian Janikowski (10), Phil Dawson (8), Matt Prater (7), Blair Walsh (6), Chris Boswell (9), Brandon McManus (5), Graham Gano (11). TD: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.
Projections and Player Summaries
Matt Ryan - Matt Ryan wound up the third-best fantasy quarterback in 2016 as he threw for 4,944 yards with 38 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions. Ryan set career-best marks in passing yardage, touchdowns and interceptions thrown. In his second season in the Kyle Shanahan system, Ryan bounced back from a sub-par 2015 campaign (he was the 18th-ranked fantasy quarterback). However, Shanahan has since departed to become the head coach in San Francisco, and the Falcons turned to University of Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to take over their offense. Head coach Dan Quinn is on the record stating after hiring Sarkisian: "We love the way that we attack, and it took a lot of work to put that system in place. We have a real emphasis now on how we can fit guys into that system. It's very important that we stay consistent with that." Running back Devonta Freeman also commented on Sarkisian May 18, saying that the offense will stay "pretty much the same... A few tweaks here and there, but the majority of the same play calls, the same offense." We saw Ryan take a step back in his first season under coordinator Shanahan, so some slippage from his career-highs during 2016 would appear to be a reasonable expectation in the first year of this new coordinator's regime as the team learns the nuances of Sarkisian's approach - but a regression to 2015 levels doesn't appear to be in the cards. There are reasons for optimism about the Atlanta passing game to counter the shift from Shanahan to Sarkisian - Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel are entering their second seasons as Falcons and should be more comfortable with their teammates/in the offensive system during 2017. Gabriel, who arrived to the Falcons at the end of training camps after the Browns cut him, will benefit from his first full preseason/training camp with the team. Also, the offense returns essentially intact from 2016. Given all the above, the probability of another strong season from Ryan seem high entering 2017.
LeVeon Bell - Fantasy owners know what they're getting when selecting superstar running back Le'Veon Bell. If healthy, there's no better running back in the NFL at crushing an opponents will on a weekly basis -- both in the NFL and your fantasy league. Bell went over 100 all-purpose yards in 10 of the 12 games he played in last year, and he was gold in PPR leagues with 75 catches in 2016. Bell missed four games (three to suspension) in 2016 but still finished as a top-10 player in rushing attempts (261), rushing yards (1,268) and yards per rush (4.86). On a weekly basis, projecting 140 all-purpose yards and five or more catches is not out of the question. With all his ability, Bell's not a sure thing as injuries have plagued him at times during his pro career. Earlier this year, Bell underwent surgery to repair a 'core muscle injury' but all signs about his recovery have been positive to this point. It's these injury concerns that may cause Bell to slide from the top overall pick in your fantasy draft.
LeGarrette Blount - LeGarrette Blount has had a strange NFL career. A strong rookie season in Tampa Bay was followed up by dwindling usage in his 2nd and 3rd seasons. He landed in New England in 2013 and was a part-time contributor, but the team didn't fight to keep him and Blount signed with the Steelers in 2014. He wore out his welcome immediately in Pittsburgh and was released mid-season, being added back into the Patriots fold. He continued in a part-time role for the next few years. Last season, at 30 years old and on a roster full of other talented, arguably more versatile, running backs -- Blount had a career year. The 6'1", 241-lb bruiser rushed for 1,161 yards and scored EIGHTEEN (18) rushing touchdowns for the Super Bowl champions. In spite of his heroics, the Patriots went in a different direction this offseason including the additions of Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee. Blount eventually found a new home in Philadelphia. On paper, it's an excellent fit as the Eagles had the league's smallest running backs exiting the NFL draft. Blount should fit in as a key part of a running back committee and serve as the main option on conventional 1st and 2nd down run plays, short yardage and the goal line. The one concern for fantasy owners is Blount's troubling history outside of his time in New England. Presuming he's matured (he'll turn 31 years old this season), he has an opportunity to be a fantasy-relevant commodity particularly in non-PPR leagues.
Matt Forte - Matt Forte was supposed to be an upgrade over Chris Ivory, but instead he ran for less yards (813 compared to Ivory's 1070), barely topped him in receiving yards (263 compared to 217) and played one less game. In fact, it was his worst year of production for his career in nearly every statistical category. So things, clearly didn't go the way the Jets or Forte had hoped they would. Will that change this year? It's hard to see room for improvement, as Bilal Powell looked good enough to take on a larger share of the lead role. Powell had a higher yards per carry average, ran for more yards, was targeted on more passes and had more receptions than Forte did, which was not expected. All this points to the fact that Forte's best days are clearly in the past, and that makes him unreliable on a week to week basis. He also hasn't played a complete season since 2014, which will only make it harder for him to produce consistently.
Marshawn Lynch - Marshawn Lynch retired after suffering through an injury-plagued 2015 season and sat out the 2016 season. He decided to come out of retirement in the spring and was a perfect match for his hometown team. The big question for Lynch will be how much gas he has left in the tank at age 31. The early reports from offseason activities are promising. Lynch handled a lot of carries over a four-year stretch from 2011-2014. He ran for 1,200+ yard and scored at least 12 touchdowns each of those four seasons. If Lynch has anywhere near the same juice he had in his prime years in Seattle, he could have a great season behind the Raiders big, talented offensive line. His rugged, straight ahead running style is a great match for the Raiders . He should handle all of the goal line work and operate as a two-down back with the talented youngsters Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington getting all of the third-down action. Lynch's contract is incredibly heavy on incentives for rushing yards and touchdowns, so he will be highly motivated and the team is likely to feed him whenever possible to keep him happy and engaged. Lynch has more fantasy value in standard formats, where he has a solid floor and low-end RB1 upside. In PPR leagues, he will be reliant on racking up double-digit touchdowns to be a top-20 back.
Charles Sims - Charles Sims was brimming with upside following a highly efficient 2015 season of 4.9 yards-per-carry and 51 receptions. However, 2016 was lackluster crash back to earth for the third-year back. Sims missed at least eight games for the second time in three seasons, logged just 2.9 yards-per-carry, and did not impress with chances as the lead back with Doug Martin out of the lineup. With Doug Martin slated to return after three games of suspension to start the season, Jacquizz Rodgers a functional committee back, and drafting Jeremy McNichols, Sims' 2017 role centers around the pass game and little more.
Eric Decker - The Jets released Decker this spring and the Titans signed the veteran with the expectation of using him as a starter who can play outside and in the slot. Decker is doing just that in training camp. He's a good route runner with skill in traffic and enough speed to get deep with the Titans' play-action offense. His range of outcomes is wide, but all of them are likely in the realm of a fantasy starter in three-receiver formats.
Taylor Gabriel - Taylor Gabriel was a pleasant surprise for Atlanta after he was let go by the Cleveland Browns at the end of the 2016 training camp and subsequently picked up by the Falcons - Gabriel brought a deep threat/vertical element to the Falcons' offense during 2016, racking up 50 targets for 35/579/6 receiving (with 4/51/1 rushing as well). The team wisely re-signed him to a $2.81 million, one-year deal on April 22. He is a great addition to the offense when the team elects to go with three wide receivers on any given down. Gabriel will participate in the Falcons' training camp for the first time this year, and so should enter 2017 regular season even more comfortable in his role than he was during 2016. He figures to get more work earlier in the season than he did last year (he was learning on the job in September 2016), which may provide a modest bump to his statistics this season - but make no mistake, Gabriel is firmly behind Julio Jones on the depth chart.
Jordan Matthews - Matthews is who we thought he was. In three seasons, Matthews has emerged as a good-but-not-great receiver. The 6'3", 212-pounder looks like Terrell Owens but plays like Wes Welker. Now he will be one of the primary receivers in Buffalo, a lower tier pass offense. His target load might be higher than it was going to be in Philadelphia, but it is difficult to see Matthews as a consistent fantasy starter getting on the Bills this late in the game.
Donte Moncrief - Donte Moncrief has the physical tools to be a fantasy mainstay, but toe and shoulder injuries have slowed his career development. He is expected to be 100% healthy at the start of training camp, where he will resume his role as the Colts complementary receiver behind T.Y. Hilton. Moncrief has 16 career touchdowns in 41 games, which means his rate of scoring in a game is nearly 40%. This is a contract year for Moncrief so you can bet he'll be focused on improving areas that need fine-tuned, like his yards per catch average. His shoulder injury kept him from being a threat after the catch, which resulted in a career low 10.2 yards per catch average. The 2016 season, which included only nine games, was a disappointment for those who expected more from the young receiver. He did manage to score 7 touchdowns in that time, which is impressive considering his injury restrictions. If Moncrief can finally escape the injury bug, and build on his potential, he could finish the season in the Top 25.
Willie Snead - Willie Snead has been suspended for the first three games of the 2017 season. He is the son of a high school coach and played collegiately at Ball State. In his final two seasons there, he became one of only two Ball State players to have two 1,000 yard receiving seasons. He totaled 223 catches for 2,991 yards, and 26 TDs. Snead originally signed an undrafted free agent contract in 2014 with the Browns, but failed to make the team. He was then signed to the practice squad at Carolina and eventually wound up in New Orleans in December that same year. He impressed in the Saints pre-season practices in 2015 and eventually became their second most productive wide receiver that season with 69 catches for 984 yards and 3 TDs. He continued that success last year with 72 receptions for 895 yards and 4 TDs, even while Michael Thomas passed him by. He may see reduced targets this year due to missing the first three games of the season.
Sammy Watkins - Watkins is now a Ram, and while Tyrod Taylor isn't a huge fantasy value creator for wide receivers, Jared Goff has to be considered even more of a ceiling capper, especially because the Rams have a better supporting cast of targets. His value is down after the trade, and it will take a bit for ADP to adjust. His foot did look sound in the preseason opener and his injury risk should be considered lower than it was before we saw him.
Rob Gronkowski - Rob Gronkowski missed half the 2016 season, and had back surgery in December, so as is often the case, there is concern about his health. He expects to be practicing this summer, and should be completely ready for Week 1. Hopefully he can stay healthy, as the situation he's in is very good. Not only does he have Julian Edelman running inside routes and pulling defenders away from him, but Gronkowski now also has Brandin Cooks to draw coverage outside and away completely. Of course, more weapons also means more targets going to others. Despite that, we don't really think his production will slip from the 1,000-plus yards he saw in 2015 and 2014. Expect Gronkowski to produce at a high level again this year as long as he is healthy. Don't worry if you don't see him much on the practice field this spring and summer as the Patriots will take it easy on him for just that reason.
Player News (last 7 days)
"Our view" written by footballguys.com's Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom. Click here for all the news around the NFL, updated constantly.Falcons | Atlanta focused on Matt Ryan extension - Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan's potential contract extension will be the focus of the offseason, according to general manager Thomas Dimitroff. Thu Jan 18, 01:52 PM [Link to story]
|Footballguys view: Ryan missed Kyle Shanahan a bit, huh? His yards were the lowest he threw for since 2011, and his interceptions went back up after a season where he threw just seven. We think he will continue to be a solid fantasy quarterback, but the new system took some getting used to. Another offseason should help.|
|Footballguys view: Last week, Bell was talking about retiring if he's slapped with the franchise tag again...and now that the Steelers are out of the playoffs he's talking about a return. If the Steelers franchise Bell again, the tag would cost around $14.5 million for the 2018 season.|
|Footballguys view: Bell's contract situation will be a big story this offseason. He could hold out into the season if the team uses the franchise tag, although there's a chance he could sign a long term deal.|
|Footballguys view: Gronkowski wasn't dominant, but he was more than good enough to key the pass offense in the middle of the field, along with Danny Amendola in the short game. He'll be the featured passcatcher for the team next week no matter who the Pats play in the AFC title game.|
|Footballguys view: Decker had a very disappointing year for the Titans after some excitement following his signing, but he was coming off of multiple offseason surgeries. Perhaps he could have more fantasy value in 2018 in a less underachieving offense.|
|Footballguys view: Ryan had an efficient game against the Eagles with only a few miscues. One of those came on the game's final play when Ryan hoisted up an end-zone pass (potential game-winner on fourth down) for WR Julio Jones that was just a bit high.|