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WR TreQuan Smith - New Orleans Saints

6-1, 200Born: 1-7-1996College: UCFDrafted: Round 3, pick

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Week 15: at Carolina Panthers

All WR vs CAR

FBG says: Good matchup. Drew Brees is actually enjoying the most efficient season of his career, though fantasy players aren't impressed. Brees is posting his best touchdown and adjusted yardage rates ever, with just 4 interceptions on the year, and is shattering his own record with a stunning 76% completion mark. But as the Saints continue to win games fairly easily, he's not being given much volume - and not producing many counting stats. Brees has averaged just 226 yards over his last 8 games and hasn't topped 201 in 3 weeks. That said, it's obvious what upside this passing game carries when pressed to perform. Michael Thomas continues to dominate the attack, taking on 28% of team targets and producing 35% of the yardage. His volume comes and goes, but in his 5 games of double-digit targets, he's averaged 12 catches for 141 yards. His 86% catch rate is record-breaking and gives him a strong ceiling and floor in fantasy. The only other usable pieces are running back Alvin Kamara, who averages 5 and 52 a game, and the upside of rookie Tre'Quan Smith. Smith has erupted twice and racked up 16.9 yards per catch, but has drawn just 2 targets over the last 2 weeks. Brees, Thomas, and Kamara are full of fantasy upside, all capable of a blowup game in any matchup. But game flow will always determine their floors, which can doom fantasy lineups. The Panthers pass defense has long been a boom-or-bust unit, but typically a more dependable one than this. Over the last 6 weeks, they've allowed quarterbacks to complete 70% of their throws at a robust 8.7 yards per attempt. Game flow and volume have stopped some of the bleeding on this Carolina losing streak, but this has still become one of fantasy's tastier matchups. The pass rush, which has dominated for years, is struggling to get home here - Julius Peppers and Wes Horton have combined for just 5.5 sacks. And the secondary is in even worse shape, with cornerbacks James Bradberry and Donte Jackson struggling for consistency. Bradberry trades off great coverage snaps with bad lapses, and Jackson has fallen off markedly from a fantastic start to his rookie season. Over that 6-game stretch, 4 opposing receivers have reached 100 yards, and 8 have topped 80. They've allowed big, game-breaking completions to guys like Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, but also to the likes of Adam Humphries, David Moore, and Breshad Perriman.

Recent Stats and Projections

WEEKOPPoSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDFumLPts
11 vs PHI 50 0 0 0 13 10 157 1 0 21.7
13 at DAL 44 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
14 at TB 41 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
15 at CAR PROJ-Dodds * 0 * * 3 * * * *
15 at CAR PROJ-Tremblay * 0 * * 2 * * * *
15 at CAR PROJ-Bloom * 0 * * 3 * * * *

Weekly Performance vs WR 1, WR 12, WR 24, WR 36

Percentile ranks

TreQuan Smith's percentile rank in each category, among WR with more than 50 fantasy points.

Recent Game Summaries

2018 Week 14 vs TB (1 / 0 / 0 / 0 rec)

The offense has just not been the same in the last 2 weeks and Smith has not contributed at all. He had a single target this week and did not catch it. The emergence of Keith Kirkwood has really cut into the playing time for Smith and that looks to be a trend that is going to continue. Smith has surprised a lot of people this season since filling in for Ted Ginn but that has changed in recent weeks. Any value in Smith may be lost with 3 tough matchups to close the season.

2018 Week 13 vs DAL (1 / 0 / 0 / 0 rec)

The enigma that is Smith continues to baffle Saints fans. After not playing in week 12, he was back this week and played 44 offensive snaps or about 85% total. He registered a single target, but it was on a ball thrown away by Brees and was nowhere near catchable. Smith has seen 60%+ of offensive snaps since week 5 but cannot show sustained success. After having 10 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown in week 11, Smith was a non-factor this week. Smith has a great chance to get back on track against a very soft Buccaneers defense next week.

2018 Week 11 vs PHI (13 / 10 / 157 / 1 rec)

It is not often that Thomas is outpaced by another receiver on the team, but that is exactly what happened this week. He may have done a lot of damage with his 4 targets, but he was over shadowed by the 13 that Smith got this week. Thomas averaged 23 yards per catch this week and hauled in a 23 yard catch down the side line. It was a beautifully thrown fade down the side line where even the safety giving help over the top could not make a play on the ball. Brees floated the ball 20 yards down the field and hit Thomas in stride for the last 3 yards and the touchdown. This is the kind of magic we have come to expect from the duo over the course of the season. Thomas gets another great matchup next week against a struggling Atlanta secondary on Thanksgiving.

2018 Week 10 vs CIN (0 / 0 / 0 / 0 rec)

It almost seems impossible for Smith to not make an impact in a game where the Saints score 52 points, but here we are. There were 3 rushing touchdowns and 3 passing touchdowns and Smith did not account for any of them. He did not have a single target the entire game. The running game was working so well, and Thomas continued his elite production to the point that Smith was irrelevant this week. The Saints do not think he is the answer after signing Bryant and even with his injury they are now talking to Brandon Marshall again. The Saints called up Kirkwood from the practice squad and even he got his first career reception. He has seen a falloff in production and is highly touchdown dependent the rest of the season.

2018 Week 9 vs LAR (3 / 2 / 23 / 1 rec)

It was another relatively quiet week for Smith, outside of his touchdown reception. He does not have any competition from Cameron Meredith or really anyone else out of the slot right now, but that targets have been dominated by Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Smith played almost 68% of the offensive snaps this week and only managed 3 targets. His most important target was the 4-yard touchdown he caught to give the Saints a 21-14 lead. He made a quick cut to the outside before coming back across the middle on a slant. Brees fired a rocket that Smith pinned against his chest as he dove to the ground. The play looked to feature Thomas on the outside, but it was Smith the broke free across the middle first and Brees found him for the touchdown.

2018 Week 7 vs BAL (6 / 3 / 44 / 0 rec)

With Ginn on the IR and the big game Smith put up last week, it was no surprise to see him utilized more in the offense. What is the most interesting is how much he cut into the playing time of Cameron Meredith. Smith had 52 offensive snaps this week or about 73% of plays, while Meredith only registered 18. With Meredith being the veteran, it was just surprising to see Smith take away so many of those snaps. He managed to haul in 3 of his 6 targets and had the second longest play of the game for the Saints. Smith hauled in a 26-yard pass deep down the left sideline to help setup an eventual Alvin Kamara touchdown run in the second half. Smith has seen his snap count increase each week this season and it will be interesting to see if that trend continues or if Meredith gets more involved next week.

2018 Week 5 vs WAS (3 / 3 / 111 / 2 rec)

Filling in for an injured Ted Ginn, Smith showed that he has all the same skills. The speedy receiver surpassed 100 yards on 3 catches and hauled in 2 touchdowns. He was not featured in the offense but did make the best of his opportunities. The first pass was the one that broke the all-time passing yards record. Smith settled into a void left by a blown coverage along the sideline and Brees found him open and alone for 62 yards and a touchdown. The second play he simply outran his man in coverage and with the safety jumping a deep in route all it took was a perfect ball thrown by Brees for a 35-yard touchdown. Smith showed that he can do all the same things as Ginn and is a much younger and cheaper option. It will be interesting to see how his role in the offense evolves over the course of the season.

More

New Orleans Saints Team Links

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Footballguys Articles

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Roundtable Week 14
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Starting Stacks for Week 10
  Scott Bischoff - November 8
NFL Preseason Slate Breakdown, August 17th, 2018
  Ryan Zamichieli - August 17
21 Deep Sleepers at Wide Receivers - Footballguys
  FBG Staff - August 15
Vegas Value Chart: Week 15
  John Lee - December 11
TipAndPick's: Tips and Picks, DK Edition
  John Lee - December 8
Vegas Value Chart: Week 14
  John Lee - December 4
Dynasty Trade Value Chart: December - Footballguys
  Dan Hindery - December 4
Week 13 Wide Receiver Tiers
  Sigmund Bloom - November 29

Articles from around the web

Breaking down the top rookie wideouts
  Dave Richard - August 8

Schedule

15@ Carolina Panthers
16vs Pittsburgh Steelers
17vs Carolina Panthers