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QB Colin Kaepernick - San Francisco 49ers

6-4, 233Born: 10-3-1987College: NevadaDrafted: Round 2

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Photo: Matthew Emmons, US Presswire

Summary

After a dazzling 2012 debut that produced 1.71 touchdowns per game and ended in the Super Bowl, Kaepernick has clearly failed to progress as an NFL passer. In fact, he's regressed each year in yards per attempt, interception rate, sack rate, and QBR. All the while, the offense has aged, rebuilt, and restaffed around him, leaving him in a difficult position to project with confidence. Armed with a new face in Torrey Smith and aging, limited complements, it's hard to know what to expect in terms of efficiency. And efficiency is key, as volume simply isn't there. Among quarterbacks to start every game over the last two years, only Russell Wilson has thrown fewer passes, and the thoroughly run-based scheme doesn't expect to change under the new coaching staff. What we know about Kaepernick is that he's strong-armed and absurdly athletic, able to improvise dynamically in both the pass and run games. Where he has failed has been when asked to play within the pocket. Scattershot and inconsistent in working a defense, Kaepernick's value depends entirely upon elite rushing production and a dynamic deep ball that produces long, open touchdowns. Now, Kaepernick has historically ranked very highly in Pro Football Focus' deep ball accuracy measure before falling to 17th last year. Still, investing too heavily and praying for long touchdowns is a risky proposition. The real ace in Kaepernick's pocket is the prospect of more rushing production. Some progression is likely; the team greatly scaled back his called runs in 2014, and there are indications the new offense will reverse that. Also note that Kaepernick scored nine touchdowns on his first 157 rushes, but just one among last year's 104. Again, though, this level of progression is essential for Kaepernick's value, not merely a fun bonus. Most likely, Kaepernick will continue to yo-yo wildly, flirting with QB1 weeks and posting useless 150-yard outings. He's a far better best-ball option than redraft, but his upside projections make him one of the more attractive stabs among the QB2 crowd. (May 15)

FBG Staff Rankings

QB Redraft - 16, 10, 10, 13, 14, 15, 15, 15, 15, 16, 17, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 20, 20, 20, 20, 22, 23
QB Dynasty - 13, 10, 13, 15, 15, 16

Stats and Projections

YEARGCMPATTYDTDINTRSHYDTDFumL
2012 SF 13 136 218 1809 10 3 63 417 5
2013 SF 16 243 416 3197 21 8 92 524 4 4
2014 SF 16 289 478 3369 19 10 105 641 1 5
2015 PROJ-Dodds 15 285 450 * * * 100 * * *
2015 PROJ-Henry 16 295 495 * * * 95 * * *
2015 PROJ-Wood 16 280 465 * * * 100 * * *
2015 PROJ-Tremblay 16 259 431 * * * 130 * * *

* - Footballguys Insiders can see full projections on this page. See just below for how to sign up.

Average Draft Position

Overall: 127
QB: 16

San Francisco 49ers Team Links

Team Report      Depth Chart      Season Stats      Targets      Red Zone      Game Logs

Footballguys Articles

Tremblay's Notebook
  Maurile Tremblay - May 11
2015 Post-Draft Redraft QB Tiers
  Sigmund Bloom - May 7
2015 Free Agency Winners and Losers - QB
  Sigmund Bloom - March 26

Articles from around the web

QBs lead the list of players with plenty to prove in 2015
  Ryan Wilson - May 25
Four QBs Who Are Fantasy Disasters When Their Teams Lose
  C.D. Carter - May 22
NFL's Best Quarterback Situations
  Patrick Daugherty - May 21
The 2015 Rankings Breakdown
  John Paulsen - May 19
QB Tiers
   - May 6
2015 NFL Coaching Turnover and Fantasy Football Implications
  John Paulsen - March 26

Latest News

49ers | Big role for Torrey Smith? (Sat May 23, 10:56 PM) - San Francisco 49ers WR Torrey Smith was a featured part of the offense during practice Thursday, May 21, connecting with QB Colin Kaepernick on several plays and catching a touchdown from QB Blaine Gabbert in the red zone.

Our View: The 49ers made the move to add Smith so they could upgrade the receiver position. Smith has the speed to stretch the field, and he can still get on top of a defense in a hurry. We'll see if he can establish chemistry with Colin Kaepernick this offseason, training camp and preseason. Right now, fantasy owners look at Smith as a low-end WR3 (WR37, 8.05) in 12-team PPR leagues.
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49ers | Vernon Davis ready to rebound? (Sat May 23, 10:45 PM) - San Fancisco 49ers TE Vernon Davis caught a pair of red-zone touchdowns from QB Colin Kaepernick during practice Thursday, May 21, and he added a 25-yard reception on a deep crossing route.

Our View: The pair of touchdowns matches what Davis was able to put up all of last year. In the final year of his contract, Davis needs to get things back on track after a disappointing 2014. Fantasy owners who selected Davis last year were certainly expecting more than 26 catches for 245 yards and two touchdowns. We'll see if Davis can get back to his TE1 status, but right now Davis is being drafted as a low-end TE2 (TE18, 13.05) in 12-team PPR leagues.
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49ers | Colin Kaepernick looking good (Sat May 23, 10:13 PM) - San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick was accurate on his throws with his new throwing motion in practice Thursday, May 21. His passes still had their usual zip, and he was able to remain accurate while throwing on the run when plays broke down.

Our View: Kaepernick needs to play better as a passer if he wants to continue developing as a pro quarterback. When pressured in 2014, Kaepernick only completed 43.4 percent of his passes. For the season, Kaepernick ranked 24th in the league with a completion percentage of 60.5 percent. Accuracy is a huge problem for him.
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49ers | Colin Kaepernick helped by Reggie Bush (Wed May 13, 04:25 PM) - San Francisco 49ers RB Reggie Bush has been an asset to QB Colin Kaepernick this offseason, according to general manager Trent Baalke. Baalke said Bush and Kaepernick have developed a rapport and that Bush's downfield speed gives Kaepernick more room to work with.

Our View: The 49ers need as many weapons around Kaepernick as they can possibly get. Bush will play as a change-of-pace back behind Carlos Hyde this season. Hyde is going off the board at RB17 (3.12) in 12-team PPR leagues while Bush's ADP is at RB43 (9.08).
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2015 Schedule

1vs Minnesota Vikings
2@ Pittsburgh Steelers
3@ Arizona Cardinals
4vs Green Bay Packers
5@ New York Giants
6vs Baltimore Ravens
7vs Seattle Seahawks
8@ St. Louis Rams
9vs Atlanta Falcons
10--- BYE WEEK ---
11@ Seattle Seahawks
12vs Arizona Cardinals
13@ Chicago Bears
14@ Cleveland Browns
15vs Cincinnati Bengals
16@ Detroit Lions
17vs St. Louis Rams