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QB Colin Kaepernick - San Francisco 49ers

6-4, 233Born: 10-3-1987College: NevadaDrafted: Round 2

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Photo: Kyle Terada, US Presswire

Summary

After a dazzling 2012 debut that produced 1.71 touchdowns per game and ended in the Super Bowl, Kaepernick has clearly failed to progress as an NFL passer. In fact, he's regressed each year in yards per attempt, interception rate, sack rate, and QBR. All the while, the offense has aged, rebuilt, and restaffed around him, leaving him in a difficult position to project with confidence. Armed with a new face in Torrey Smith and aging, limited complements, it's hard to know what to expect in terms of efficiency. And efficiency is key, as volume simply isn't there. Among quarterbacks to start every game over the last two years, only Russell Wilson has thrown fewer passes, and the thoroughly run-based scheme doesn't expect to change under the new coaching staff. What we know about Kaepernick is that he's strong-armed and absurdly athletic, able to improvise dynamically in both the pass and run games. Where he has failed has been when asked to play within the pocket. Scattershot and inconsistent in working a defense, Kaepernick's value depends entirely upon elite rushing production and a dynamic deep ball that produces long, open touchdowns. Now, Kaepernick has historically ranked very highly in Pro Football Focus' deep ball accuracy measure before falling to 17th last year. Still, investing too heavily and praying for long touchdowns is a risky proposition. The real ace in Kaepernick's pocket is the prospect of more rushing production. Some progression is likely; the team greatly scaled back his called runs in 2014, and there are indications the new offense will reverse that. Also note that Kaepernick scored nine touchdowns on his first 157 rushes, but just one among last year's 104. Again, though, this level of progression is essential for Kaepernick's value, not merely a fun bonus. Most likely, Kaepernick will continue to yo-yo wildly, flirting with QB1 weeks and posting useless 150-yard outings. He's a far better best-ball option than redraft, but his upside projections make him one of the more attractive stabs among the QB2 crowd. (May 15)

FBG Staff Rankings

QB Redraft - 15, 10, 13, 13, 13, 13, 15, 15, 15, 16, 16, 16, 17, 17, 18, 18, 18, 19, 21, 22
QB Dynasty - 15, 10, 15, 15, 17, 17, 17

Stats and Projections

YEARGCMPATTYDTDINTRSHYDTDFumL
2012 SF 13 136 218 1809 10 3 63 417 5
2013 SF 16 243 416 3197 21 8 92 524 4 4
2014 SF 16 289 478 3369 19 10 105 641 1 5
2015 PROJ-Dodds 15 288 455 * * * 90 * * *
2015 PROJ-Henry 16 297 500 * * * 100 * * *
2015 PROJ-Wood 16 272 455 * * * 100 * * *
2015 PROJ-Tremblay 16 258 431 * * * 130 * * *

* - Footballguys Insiders can see full projections on this page. See just below for how to sign up.

Average Draft Position

Overall: 127
QB: 17

San Francisco 49ers Team Links

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2015 Schedule

1vs Minnesota Vikings
2@ Pittsburgh Steelers
3@ Arizona Cardinals
4vs Green Bay Packers
5@ New York Giants
6vs Baltimore Ravens
7vs Seattle Seahawks
8@ St. Louis Rams
9vs Atlanta Falcons
10--- BYE WEEK ---
11@ Seattle Seahawks
12vs Arizona Cardinals
13@ Chicago Bears
14@ Cleveland Browns
15vs Cincinnati Bengals
16@ Detroit Lions
17vs St. Louis Rams