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WR Chris Hogan - New England Patriots

6-1, 215Born: 10-24-1988College: MonmouthDrafted: ---

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Photo: Geoff Burke, US Presswire

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Week 20: vs Jacksonville Jaguars

All WR vs JAX

FBG says: Bad matchup. Even after limping to the finish line in the regular season, Tom Brady proved last week that the postseason is generally of no real obstacle. His 337-yard, 3-touchdown masterpiece against the Titans' barely-there secondary was a sight to behold, and it reinforced just how great this passing game is. Of course, that one game doesn't totally sew up Brady's issues - he and this unit had their share of difficulties down the 2017 stretch. Brady's numbers almost always dip as December nears, and this year's dip was rather noticeable. After producing 340.4 yards per game over the season's first 5 weeks, his average has fallen to a good-not-great 267.6 over the last 12. That run has included a handful of fantasy clunkers, including late slip-ups against the Bills (258 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception in a 23-3 win), Dolphins (233 with 1 and 2), and Jets (just 18 of 37 for 190 and 2 scores). Like all passers, Brady can absolutely struggle in cold weather, and with Dion Lewis and the running game so reliable and stout, Brady isn't asked to throw as often as usual. Still, he remains an efficiency king, one who's as capable as anyone of turning his attempts into fantasy points. Over the course of the 2017-18 season, he's generated a league-best 286.1 yards per game and the 5th-best touchdown rate (5.51%) in football. He still throws to ultra-dynamic weapons, too. Rob Gronkowski remains arguably the NFL's toughest cover and an absolute touchdown machine - he's now found the end zone 37 times over his last 54 games. He's no one-dimensional touchdown guy, either, with 75+ yards in 24 of those. Brandin Cooks' mega-potent deep game has only clicked with Brady occasionally, but he's always a threat to burn a secondary; on the other side, Chris Hogan was quiet last week but is working back from major injury. Regardless of things like timing, momentum, etc., this passing game remains as terrifying and high-ceiling as any in football. If there's a unit capable of going toe-to-toe on an efficiency level with this Jaguars defense, it's Brady and his crew. The Jaguars pass defense remains dominant, for the most part. They allowed quite a bit of production last week, but most of that can be chalked up to the script of a wild Steelers rally, spearheaded by a Hall of Fame quarterback/wide receiver combination. On the whole, the Jaguars have simply smothered opposing passing games all year. Even including last week's Pittsburgh eruption, Jacksonville has allowed the NFL's fewest passing yards per game. They're adept at forcing turnovers, even against the best: Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, and Philip Rivers combined to hand over nine interceptions and two fumbles across their five turns in this matchup. Again, it's hard to knock any defense for failing to contain Antonio Brown, who's simply the most productive wideout in league history. And the Jaguars, armed with the elite cornerback duo of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, tend to choke off production for most human WR1s. They've certainly shut down their fair share of them, including T.Y. Hilton (just 78 yards on 14 targets over 2 games), Larry Fitzgerald (12 on 8), Keenan Allen (48 on 7), and A.J. Green (6 on 2). Slowing Tom Brady and the Patriots' array of weapons is a big ask, of course. But the Jaguars certainly boast the personnel - and the upside to dominate one-on-one matchups - to slow them for extended chunks of time. If nothing else, they look poised to put themselves in Brady's face (a 9.8% sack rate this season, 2nd-best in football) and make a big day difficult.

Recent Stats and Projections

WEEKOPPoSNAPRSHYDTDTARGRECYDTDFumLPts
19 vs TEN 67 0 0 0 4 1 4 1 0 6.4
20 vs JAX PROJ-Dodds * 0 * * 3 * * * *
20 vs JAX PROJ-Tremblay * 0 * * 3 * * * *
20 vs JAX PROJ-Bloom * 0 * * 3 * * * *

Recent Game Summaries

2017 Week 19 vs TEN (4 / 1 / 4 / 1 rec)

Coming back from a long injury layoff, Hogan's only catch was a short slant touchdown. Expect him to be more involved next week, though the matchup is daunting.

2017 Week 14 vs MIA (5 / 1 / 1 / 0 rec)

In his first game back from injury, Chris Hogan was simply beat by coverage and inaccurate quarterbacking. As a result, he caught one pass for one yard. Better days are assuredly ahead.

2017 Week 8 vs LAC (7 / 5 / 60 / 0 rec)

The big news for Hogan was his injury. As Hogan was hit by a defender, trainers came to look at him, and he eventually walked off the field with his arm hanging limp by his side, slamming his helmet in frustration. It is something definitely worth monitoring. Prior to that, he was playing well with no huge plays to speak of.

2017 Week 7 vs ATL (6 / 4 / 71 / 0 rec)

Due to game script, Hogan only caught 4 passes while Tom Brady only attempted 29 passes. Hogan was also knocked out of the game briefly while being checked for a concussion, but seemed to be okay. His highlight was a 3rd and 16 conversion early in the game on a route towards the sideline.

2017 Week 6 vs NYJ (4 / 1 / 19 / 0 rec)

Chris Hogan was not as involved in the game against the Jets as usual. Part of it was due to a huge shot to the ribs that saw him banged up for a bit, but a bigger part was the focus on Brandin Cooks, Rob Gronkowski, and balancing the passing and running game to an extent. There will be better days ahead.

2017 Week 5 vs TB (11 / 8 / 74 / 1 rec)

Chris Hogan's role has become very stable, and was especially so against the Bucs with Rob Gronkowski sitting out. Hogan scored the only touchdown of the day for the Patriots, a short 5 yard stick route that the defender wasn't able to bat away. He and Danny Amendola were the primary reasons the offense was able to do much of anything, and he'll continue to remain a valuable asset.

2017 Week 4 vs CAR (9 / 5 / 60 / 1 rec)

Hogan had some good and some bad, but remained heavily involved in the offensive game plan. He snared a short touchdown on a marvelous laser pass from Tom Brady, and narrowly missed another after a drop.

2017 Week 3 vs HOU (6 / 4 / 68 / 2 rec)

Thanks to some sloppy coverage, Chris Hogan was able to grab two touchdowns. His first was a wide open touchdown in the end zone where he simply wasn't covered by anyone. The second was a longer touchdown with similarly shoddy coverage that he managed to take to the house. Along with Brandin Cooks, Hogan helps set the table for the deep passing game, meaning he could go off on any given week.

2017 Week 2 vs NO (6 / 5 / 78 / 1 rec)

Chris Hogan was the most consistent wide receiver on the day for the Patriots, busting a couple long gains. His touchdown was off a pick play with Philip Dorsett. Initially, the referees called offensive pass interference, but the flag was picked up, making the touchdown good. Notably, Hogan was also limping during parts of the second half, and acted as a semi-decoy on a couple plays. His injury is worth monitoring.

2017 Week 1 vs KC (5 / 1 / 8 / 0 rec, 3 / 17 / 0 rush)

Expectations were high for Hogan, but he simply could not produce against the Chiefs. He was well covered for most of the game, and in fact had more carries than catches, as the Patriots used him on 3 reverse sweeps with mixed results. Hogan should see more success in the future, but will remain a volatile asset on a week to week basis.

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Latest News

Patriots | Chris Hogan removed from injury report (Thu Jan 11, 04:15 PM) - New England Patriots WR Chris Hogan (shoulder) fully participated in practice Thursday, Jan. 11, and has been removed from the injury report for the Divisional Round playoff game against the Tennessee Titans.

Our View: Great news for a guy who could be in for a very good week. Tennessee is Football Outsiders' 24th ranked pass defense according to their DVOA metric. While Brandon Cooks and Rob Gronkowski are Tom Brady's first and first-adjacent choices, Hogan could be in line for borderline WR1/WR2 numbers this week as the defense shifts its attention to the other two targets, leaving Hogan in single coverage.
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Patriots | Chris Hogan listed as limited (Wed Jan 10, 05:45 PM) - New England Patriots WR Chris Hogan (shoulder) was limited during practice Wednesday, Jan. 10.

Our View: It looks like Hogan is going to return for the Divisional Round game against the Titans. Hogan could be limited as the team has other returning, pass-catching weapons like RBs James White and Rex Burkhead who could be more involved when the team goes through the air.
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Patriots | Chris Hogan puts in limited practice (Tue Jan 9, 05:25 PM) - New England Patriots WR Chris Hogan (shoulder) was limited in practice Tuesday, Jan. 9. He is expected to return to action this weekend against the Tennessee Titans.

Our View: Hogan has missed seven of the final eight games of the regular season for the Patriots, and the last time we saw him was in Week 14 against the Dolphins when he had one catch for one yard. We'll see if he can practice fully later in the week.
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