RB Chris Carson - Seattle Seahawks
|6-0, 218||Born: 9-16-1994||College: Oklahoma State||Drafted: Round 7, pick 2017|
News you need to know
From the upgrade/downgrade report (Mon Dec 9): Rashaad Penny left with a knee injury just as he was becoming a threat to Carson's weekly ceiling. Against the reeling Panthers run defense this week, Carson could easily go well over 100 yards with multiple scores.
Week 15: at Carolina Panthers
FBG says: Great matchup. Chris Carson has spent most of 2019 as fantasy's most dependable bell cows, and his outlook opens up even more with Rashaad Penny on injured reserve with a torn ACL. But it's worth noting Carson's ball security issues, and the possibility he sees his workload managed just a bit anyway. Penny had cut steadily into the ground game before going down, and those 33 snaps and 15 rushes per game won't just be absorbed into Carson's workload. Rather, it's fair to project C.J. Prosise (and perhaps a mid-week addition) to take on some of that. For his part, Carson has been adequate throughout the year, averaging a workmanlike 4.3 yards per attempt and 81 a game. The runners - including quarterback Russell Wilson, who's running five times a week - operate behind a good-not-great line, one built much more for road-grading than for pass blocking. All told, regardless of personnel or efficiency, it's hard to bypass volume like this in fantasy football. Carson comes with his warts, but remains one of fantasy's most dependable assets - and Prosise could work his way into Week 15 value as well. The Panthers' 2019 collapse hasn't snuck past its run defense, which is close to rock bottom at this point. They've allowed 6 different runners to record 50+ yards over the past 3 weeks, averaging 7.3 per rush and scoring 6 touchdowns along the way. Last Sunday, even the Falcons' anemic run game found success, with the plodding Devonta Freeman and Brian Hill consistently grinding through a front seven that looked winded. The root problem here is on the second level: linebackers Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson have been up-and-down in space, and the secondary has offered little run-stopping help in the box. Kuechly remains a great defensive quarterback, but he's spent the year trading off strong games with shaky ones. Too often, he and Thompson are washed out of the lane, and even struggling runners have been able to capitalize. And they likely won't get any Week 15 rest with the Seahawks' run-focused attack on the docket. The Panthers line will need to dominate in the trenches to give Kuechly, Thompson, and the crew room to pursue and strike.
Recent Stats and Projections
Weekly Performance vs RB 1, RB 12, RB 24, RB 36
Chris Carson's percentile rank in each category, among RB with more than 50 fantasy points.
Recent Game Summaries
2019 Week 14 vs LAR (15 / 76 / 0 rush, 4 / 3 / 15 / 0 rec)
Carson's final numbers are decent, considering the fact that his team was playing from behind for 90% of the game. He kept up his bruising running up the middle, and when Penny went down, became a passing target as well. He did, however, miss a screen pass, and though he made no glaring errors as a receiver, the downgrade was evident. With Penny's injury looking like a long term one, expect Carson's usage to increase in the coming weeks.
2019 Week 13 vs MIN (23 / 102 / 1 rush, 2 / 1 / 7 / 0 rec)
Though you wouldn't know it from his final stat line, but from the start, Carson fully shared the snaps with Rashaad Penny. Carson briefly left the field after a blow to the head, but returned without missing a beat, scoring a short yardage TD (on his second try). Seahawks blockers had a great day, which was good news for Carson up the middle, as he ran with both patience and an excellent power-speed combo, when the play dictated it. On his biggest run, a huge hole opened up for him and brought him around 25 yards, down at the 5 yard line. In the final minutes with the Seahawks holding a narrow lead, both Carson and Penny were successful in moving the chains and run the clock down.
2019 Week 12 vs PHI (8 / 26 / 0 rush, 4 / 4 / 31 / 0 rec)
Carson's game was merely forgettable at first, as he made minimal gains on the ground. This opened the door to Rashaad Penny, who had a great game running the ball. Carson did make a couple of nice catch and run plays in succession, to convert a 1st and 20 into a first down in two plays, but then offset his gains with two fumbles in two consecutive plays (did not lose the first, but lost the second one, in which he was not expecting the handoff at all). Fumbles were a problem for him earlier this season, and with Penny running well, this could easily change how the backfield carries are shared going forward.
2019 Week 10 vs SF (25 / 89 / 1 rush, 4 / 3 / 12 / 0 rec)
Carson got stronger as the game went on, after a very rough beginning in which he seemingly couldn't get anywhere against an incredibly stout defense. After the forgettable first half, the Seahawks changed things up a little, getting Carson the ball as a receiver, and calling more outside runs, both of which seemed to spark him. The bad news is that Carson coughed up yet another fumble; good news is that he did not lose this one. Late in the third quarter, he set up his own short yardage score, as he nearly got over the goal line with an acrobatic run that ultimately was downed inside the 1-yard line. On the ensuing play, he simply powered through for the score; painting quite a different picture than the unsuccessful runs up the middle in the first half. Carson out-carried Rashaad Penny 28-2. In overtime, Carson was hitting the hole HARD, showing great power up the middle, and also looked impressive on a second effort to convert a short yardage first down.
2019 Week 9 vs TB (16 / 105 / 0 rush, 2 / 2 / 28 / 0 rec)
Carson had a good game, but ... one that comes with a couple of "but's". He started out looking good on a screen play for first down, then on one play, making a cutback-spin move-broken tackle in quick succession for a short gain instead of being tackled for a loss. The But's in question are that he fumbled twice - losing neither, luckily - and did not score. Much of his yardage came on one big run, early in the second half, in which he broke three tackles en route to a 59-yard gain, but (yes, another one) he didn't have the breakaway speed to go all the way. The other but, is that Carson was stopped on a goal line carry, which has been a recurring theme lately. In OT, he made an acrobatic short catch with Wilson throwing on the run. And then again, he was stopped for a loss on a run inside the 10.
2019 Week 8 vs ATL (20 / 90 / 1 rush, 1 / 0 / 0 / 0 rec)
Let's just get this out of the way: Carson easily could have had a day with multiple TDs, if the red zone play calling had favored him. Throughout the first half, on all but the obvious short yardage plays, he had huge holes to run through. Even with the Seahawks starting Center going down early in the game, Carson still found plenty of room up the middle, including on his red zone carries. Ah, but the story of the red zone. Carson brought the ball to the 4-yard line, only to lose the TD opportunity to a passing play call. Next time up, Rashaad Penny carried a couple of times to get the ball to the one-yard line, and Carson scored on a counter play, cutting back and beating two defenders with his speed, to the right corner. A third time, Carson ran the ball from the 7-yard line to the 2-yard line, only to once again see a passing play (and score) called. As usual, not many of his plays stand out as highlights, but overall it was a good day for Carson. He showed great initial burst, read his blocks well, and shed tacklers when he had any open space (which was rare). Carson's only blemish was a drop of a short pass to the flat area, early in the game.
2019 Week 7 vs BAL (21 / 65 / 0 rush, 5 / 3 / 9 / 0 rec)
Carson saw the ball early and often, but really got nowhere throughout the game. On a few occasions, he hit the line of scrimmage fast enough to find a hole, but most carries, he did not. He also had a lot of trouble when attempting to get outside. He looked good in open space, on a reception in which he leapt over a defender for a short gain. 99% of the time, the Ravens defense just had his number. Credit the strong running game overall for the fact that he came away with the positive yardage that he did.
2019 Week 6 vs CLE (24 / 124 / 1 rush, 4 / 4 / 35 / 0 rec)
Carson played a well-rounded game, both as a runner and receiver. He looked great in the early going, taking a short reception over the middle that surprised the defense as they closed in, by cutting outside to get first down yardage. His big plays were from similar vision and moves. He saw the field well, and though Carson also showed he can pound the ball in short yardage, it was his ability to read and react to his blockers that got him most of his yards in this game. On more than one play he evaded what looked like an obvious no gain, by waiting a split second for a hole to develop, which opened up big gains for him. Carson seems to be playing at the top of his game right now, with game plan, confidence, and opportunity all aligning for him.
2019 Week 5 vs LAR (27 / 118 / 0 rush, 2 / 1 / 5 / 1 rec)
Without any truly long carries, Carson had a very effective game on the ground, pounding the ball for 4.4 yards per carry. Carson was not used much in the passing game until the final drive of the game, in which he first bobbled a 5 yard pass into the end zone, but managed to corral the ball for the game winning TD. His best runs were in the second half -- which seems to be a trend - as he turned a broken left run into a first down and more on the right side, and a little later showed off his agility working through a crowd up the middle, going untouched for a 10 yard first down. Most impressive is that he is showing a maturity in his running style, reading blocks well and staying patient when necessary, without losing his power game.
2019 Week 4 vs ARI (22 / 104 / 0 rush, 4 / 4 / 41 / 0 rec)
It's safe to say that Carson fully redeemed himself for his fumble problems over the first three games. He had a great game all around - by the numbers and on the field. He proved to be not only reliable holding on to the ball, but showed both power and speed, while catching several passes out of the backfield and finding/making room to run. Carson played almost the full first half, including for the two-minute drill, as the Seahawks clearly were committed to giving him the ball. Unfortunately, he was spelled twice by CJ Prosise - both times in the red zone. This felt like coincidence, but it's hard to tell, since Prosise is typically their best pass catching back. For what it's worth: Without Carson, the drive stalled and they had to settle for a field goal. With him, the momentum was palpable, and it seemed inevitable they would end up with a major. There were several individual plays worth mentioning - a nice spin move that got him outside for the first down; his vision helping him to get the short yardage first down; and most impressive was a reception in the fourth quarter that was essentially a dump pass. Carson was draped in coverage but broke the tackle, beat two defenders with his speed, and powered through a fourth Cardinal for a first down. He kept running hard til the end, and in fact did find the end zone on a short play that had him cutting all the way to the outside to make it in, but it was called back on a penalty. A few plays later, Prosise vulture a score. Even with Rashaad Penny coming back next week, Carson clearly has the trust of his coaches and should continue to get the bulk of the carries.
2019 Week 3 vs NO (15 / 53 / 0 rush, 1 / 1 / -2 / 0 rec)
Carson was boxed in for the first part of the game; the Saints were giving up nothing on the ground. Carson had just gotten going with a breakthrough 7th carry for a big gain, and then repeated the feat only to fumble at the end of the play, which was returned for a touchdown. After that play, Carson did not see the field much, whether because the Seahawks were playing from behind, or because he was in the doghouse, was hard to tell. Likely a combination of the two. This was Carson's third costly fumble in two games. If you're counting. Another not-so-good sign: when he did return after the fumble play, Carson failed to convert consecutive 1-yard third AND fourth down plays up the middle.
2019 Week 2 vs PIT (15 / 60 / 0 rush, 3 / 3 / 27 / 0 rec)
Carson had a hard luck game, with two costly fumbles deep in his own territory. If you take those gaffes away, he looked good on the ground and also contributed as a receiver - even lining up wide for a hitch play. He seemed to be seeing the field well, but the Steelers did a formidable job of clogging the middle of the field. When the blocking was there, however, he took advantage. On his third carry, he followed the left tackle, who was pull blocking on a right side run, for a 24-yard gain. And so it went. Carson was either stuffed at the line, or put up a big gain, there wasn't much in between. After his second fumble, he was not on the field for the final drive as the Seahawks held their lead. Probably nothing to worry about, but if the fumbles continue to be a problem, then Rashaad Penny, who played well, would be in line to take more of the workload.
2019 Week 1 vs CIN (15 / 46 / 1 rush, 7 / 6 / 34 / 1 rec)
Carson's game was a real mixed bag. On one hand, there was no consistency in the ground game, which is evident by the final numbers. But... there were times when Carson looked almost unstoppable. He showed his speed on a jet sweep in the first half, catching the Bengals off guard and picking up ten yards before they could blink. He also proved to be an important passing outlet, which was not a part of his resume last season. A couple of highlight worthy plays include both TDs, first powering through easily and untouched on a goal line carry; then he showed his speed yet again, as he caught a short pass and not only eluded the defense, but simply bounced off a defender to keep running for the score. In the second half. Perhaps his best play was a short third down conversion late in the game. Carson expertly found the hole on a short yardage play, broke loose for a few more yards, and THEN, dragged a defender at least another five yards, ending with his longest run, just over 20 yards. One blemish is the fumble he committed in the second half, which dashed what little bit of momentum the Seahawks had mustered.
Latest NewsSeahawks | Chris Carson end zone bound? (Thu Dec 12, 09:32 PM) - Seattle Seahawks RB Chris Carson faces the Carolina Panthers in Week 15, and the Panthers have allowed an NFL-high 24 rushing touchdowns this season. link to story Seahawks | Chris Carson rushes for 76 yards (Mon Dec 9, 02:11 AM) - Seattle Seahawks RB Chris Carson carried the ball 15 times for 76 yards against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, Dec. 8. Carson also caught three passes for 15 yards. link to story Seahawks | Near-even split again among Seattle RBs (Tue Dec 3, 03:44 PM) - Seattle Seahawks RBs Chris Carson played 39 snaps versus 35 for Rashaad Penny in Week 13 against the Minnesota Vikings. In Week 12 versus the Philadelphia Eagles, Carson logged 31 snaps and Penny finished with 30. Our View: Carson has RB1 value for Fantasy GMs even with this split. Penny has flex appeal with RB1/RB2 upside in this split as well.
link to story Seahawks | Chris Carson hits the century mark (Tue Dec 3, 12:21 AM) - Seattle Seahawks RB Chris Carson rushed 23 times for 102 yards and a touchdown in the Week 13 game against the Minnesota Vikings and he had a seven-yard grab. link to story
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|15||@ Carolina Panthers|
|16||vs Arizona Cardinals|
|17||vs San Francisco 49ers|