FBG says: Good matchup. Even with a line and receiving corps that's been turned upside-down, Tom Brady continues to post eerily similar numbers to his 2017. He's averaging a solid 285 yards and 1.8 touchdowns a game and looks to be hitting his fantasy stride, even with Rob Gronkowski disappointing the fantasy world so sorely. Gronkowski is still dominating matchups and winning jump balls, and is fresh off his best game of the season, catching all 8 targets for 107 yards and 1 touchdown last Sunday. But Brady has actually been more successful looking for Josh Gordon (18.0 yards per catch) down the field and James White (5.8 receptions a week) underneath. Gordon has acclimated nicely to this offense, averaging 82 yards over his last 7 games. He's nicely papered over a thin receiving corps that features slot specialist Julian Edelman and little else. White makes for a reliable and dynamic check-down option, and if Gronkowski's Week 14 is a sign of things to come, this should remain one of football's most explosive attacks. Brady's track record against the Pittsburgh defense, which changes little from year to year, is definitely a reason for optimism. Over their last 3 meetings, he's completed 71% of his passes at 8.8 yards per attempt, with 6 touchdowns to just 1 interception.
The Pittsburgh pass defense looked dominant over a midseason stretch of favorable scheduling but has come back to earth during the last two weeks. Since allowing just 187 yards per game from Weeks 6-12, they've given up 299 to Philip Rivers and 322 to Derek Carr, with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. (In fact, they've only picked off a single pass over the last 183 attempts.) Last week was particularly disappointing, as Carr methodically marched down the field with strong downfield throws in the Raiders' upset. In general, this is a solid group, boasting a dynamic pass rush that's capable of disrupting just about any pocket. But the secondary remains shaky at best in coverage. Joe Haden can no longer win matchups consistently and loses downfield too often, and the safeties, installed mostly for run support, provide little help. On any given week, the Steelers' blitzing scheme can wreak havoc on a quarterback and pressure him into an inefficient day. But Tom Brady's surgical style - coupled with Josh Gordon's and Rob Gronkowski's downfield games - project nicely for Week 15.