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WR Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts

HT: 6-0, WT: 195, Born: 11-17-1978, College: Miami, Drafted: Round 1, Pick 30

2009 Projections

Average draft position

Current as of June 29th. [Full ADP list]

Overall: T Brady (19), M Barber (20), Reggie Wayne (21), G Jennings (22), S Smith (23)
Position: R Moss (14-WR3), C Johnson (15-WR4), Reggie Wayne (21 - WR5), G Jennings (22-WR6), S Smith (23-WR7)
Click here for a comparison of these players.

Best Case

After joining the team as Marvin Harrison's sidekick in 2001, Wayne showed steady improvement over most of his career until he had back-to-back Top 5 fantasy seasons in 2006 and 2007, passing Harrison as the team's clear WR1 by 2007. The Colts offense had a bit of a down season in 2008, and Wayne's stats suffered as well. Most people expected another Top 5 finish at the WR position from Wayne last season, and most of the elements that led to those expectations are still in place this season.

Worst Case

Some of Wayne's struggles last season were likely due to Peyton Manning's early troubles with his knee. But another factor was that the team's running game was largely ineffective, so opposing defenses were able to devote a lot of attention to stopping the passing game.

Outlook

We expect Wayne to bounce back from his disappointing 2008 performance. The Colts are dedicated to improving their running game (as shown by the first-round selection of Donald Brown), which should open up the passing game and allow Wayne to face single coverage more often, as he did in 2006 and 2007. Wayne is probably more likely to finish inside the Top 5 than he is to finish outside the Top 10.

Why he is overvalued

Jeff Haseley - Reggie Wayne had only six TDs last year with just two after week six. He has only had two multiple TD games since 2004 and only one since week one of 2007. The Colts have a new coach this year and while I'm not predicting this, Manning eventually is going to slow down. Reggie Wayne is a good WR, but is he still an elite one? Since week 11 last year, he had as many fantasy points as the slumping Torry Holt.

Jason Wood - Reggie Wayne is an excellent receiver but the perception that he's as productive as his former teammate Marvin Harrison simply isn't accurate. Last year, despite being the Colts clear cut No. 1 wideout, Wayne actually ranked 15th in points per game. Wayne will probably go in the Top 5 at his position in all formats, and yet he's simply not worth that high a ranking unless your league rewards points per reception, and even in PPR format I wouldn't draft him that high.

2009 Schedule

2008 Game Summaries

Week 1 - Despite not making his first catch until early in the second quarter, Wayne led all Indianapolis receivers in targets, catches, and yards. On the drive that led to the Colts' only touchdown, he had four catches for 30 yards and hauled in the six yard scoring strike from QB Peyton Manning. Wayne had what would have been about a 22 yard touchdown pass deflect off his hands as he made a diving attempt into the end zone. He also had a longer pass reception nullified when he was unable to get both feet in bounds.

Week 2 - Reggie Wayne came very close to a TD after the pitch from Gonzalez. That play seemed to ignite the Colts and Wayne. Most of his action came during the fourth quarter comeback. Wayne made a great play splitting the coverage on his TD catch. That play was reviewed and negated his TD. It was a return to 2007 in the fourth quarter. Wayne had five targets in the fourth quarter to match Gonzalez.

Week 3 - Wayne did not have many opportunities, but showed his big-play ability when given the opportunity. His route running was exemplary, which resulted in him being wide open for most of the passes thrown his way, a couple of which were errant. Wayne was pushed out of bounds at the two yard line late in the game to set up the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter.

Week 5 - Reggie Wayne was quiet early, but made his impact felt in a big way with his first catch. With the Colts facing a fourth and one from the Texan 45 Manning called for a deep pass down the left sideline that Wayne was able to haul in despite being well covered. He then used his skills to find open spots while on crossing routes, catching the ball on the move and gaining extra yards after the catch. Wayne had the catch of the game with his game winning reception with only 42 seconds left. The play came on a fade route where Manning put the ball up and Wayne came down with the pass and was somehow able to get both feet down before going out of bounds. He was also targeted one other time on a deep ball that was knocked away in the end zone.

Week 6 - As Peyton Manning's favorite target on the day, Wayne was given plenty of opportunities to make plays, and make them he did. While he narrowly missed an opportunity to pull in a TD pass between two defenders on the Colt's first possession, he quickly atoned for that incompletion. During the Colts' third series he hauled in a 22 yard corner route pass over his left shoulder for six points (his 50th from Manning.) Even though Wayne finished with 118 yards in addition to that score, and thus turned in an impressive fantasy day, it could have been huge. On the next series after his score, Wayne almost pulled in a pass at the goal-line pylon that was thrown just out of reach. Then, in the fourth quarter, he did catch a long, 63 yard TD, but the play was nullified by an offensive holding penalty.

Week 7 - WR Reggie Wayne had an unusually quiet game. The Packers played him very tight and like most of the Colts offense he was held in check. Wayne should have had another reception in the fourth quarter but it was ruled incomplete by the officials. It appeared that he had possession has he fell to the ground but the team did not challenge.

Week 8 - Wayne only had two receptions for 15 yards in the first of the game as he and all the Colts' receivers had a hard time of gaining separation from the Titans' secondary. QB Peyton Manning tried to go deep to him early in the second half but, the pass was off the mark as the Titans' pass rush forced an inaccurate pass. Wayne got injured at the end of the third quarter but, he returned to the field on the next play. Wayne struggled getting open all game and was doubled team through most of the game.

Week 9 - RB Reggie Wayne played well and did not show any signs of slow down from the injury that had him listed as questionable heading into the match-up. He ran well and showed some nice footwork to avoid defenders and get out of bounds when necessary. Wayne also lined up in the slot for one play instead of his usual outside position and showed incredible determination on his two point conversion catch in the back of the end zone.

Week 10 - Wayne produced for QB Peyton Manning for most of the game. His longest reception was 65 yards and he did show some run after the catch ability. He was used a few flanker screens and despite a nagging knee injury, was effective. The drawback in this game was high number of incomplete passes, but that was more a function of Manning's low accuracy than Wayne's hands. He remains after ten weeks a top flight WR.

Week 11 - Reggie Wayne led all Colts receivers in yardage gained with 90 yards, but could have had an even better game if it was not for two plays in the first half. On the first play he let a ball bounce off of his hands on a deep post route that would have been gone for a big gain. The second play came late in the second half when he had a 22 yard completion wiped out by a holding penalty. He was able to make corrections and step up his play in the second half as he not only was able to get open, but also gain some extra yards by putting moves on the defensive backs and breaking through tackles.

Week 12 - Wayne's first target of the game came on a third and one play that went for a 26 yard gain down the middle of field. His only other catch went for eight yards as he took the ball down to the Chargers' five yard line. Though he would not catch another pass, Wayne did draw a 17 yard pass interference penalty that gave the Colts a first down.

Week 13 - Wayne ran a low of deep routes and got a few deep targets, but did not see much success on those routes. This likely is due to a combination of coverage and the wind, holding Wayne's longest reception to 16 yards. He nearly came down with what would have been a great catch in the end zone. Wayne was not able to get separation from the Cleveland defensive backs consistently.

Week 14 - If first down conversions meant anything in fantasy, Wayne would be the man to have on your team. All five of his receptions were for first downs, and he narrowly missed a sixth on a spectacular fingertip grab that just slipped out of hands as he went to the turf in a diving catch.

Week 15 - Another strong game from Reggie Wayne as he caught seven balls for 104 yards. With the game tied in the fourth quarter, Manning tried to hit him with the go ahead touchdown pass down the left sideline. The play covered 39 yards but Wayne was tackled at the one yard line, setting up Rhodes' second touchdown of the afternoon.

Week 16 - Wayne wasn't thrown to in the first quarter, but that was mostly because the Jaguars controlled the ball nearly the entire time. He made up for lost time in a hurry, as the first ball thrown in Wayne's direction was a 41 yard touchdown bomb from Peyton Manning. Most of his other receptions after that point came on quick slants, out routes, and curls with nothing else downfield. But they were all very effective, as he picked up an additional 67 yards through the air on his other six catches.

Week 17 - Wayne caught but one ball for 15 yards but like the other key starting players on offense didn't see much game time.

Week 18 - Wayne's stats suggest that he had a very good game. Stat wise, he did have a good game. But realistically, he had one big play that was unusual. And the rest of his performance was lacking. Near the end of the third quarter, Peyton Manning set up a no-huddle offense to try and catch the Charger defenders napping. CB Antonio Cromartie, in particular, was definitely napping as Manning snapped the ball. Wayne ran right by Cromartie, who wasn't even looking at the play, and Manning lofted a deep ball to the wideout for a 72 yard touchdown reception. It was one of the easiest touchdowns Wayne will ever have, though it was a bit of a fluke that it worked so well.

Aside from that one big catch, Wayne didn't do much (three receptions, 57 yards). He disappeared for long stretches (just one passing target the entire fourth quarter, for example). He did have an opportunity to better his totals, but Manning overthrew him on a deep ball early in the first quarter when Wayne was wide open. Wayne also juggled a pass along the sideline that eventually was ruled an incompletion, though it was challenged and the replays looked close.