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PK Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis Colts
HT: 6-0, WT: 202, Born: 12-28-1972, College: South Dakota State, Drafted: ---
2008 Projections
Best Case
As long as the Colts keep on going and Vinatieri lives up to his reputation, he'll be a top kicker. Indianapolis has ranked in the top ten in kicker scoring five straight and 10 of the last 12 years. They ranked 10th last year with Vinatieri's 118 points. As always, the coaching staff returns intact this year. Vinatieri is probably best known for his game winning kicks in playoff games and Super Bowls during his years with the Patriots. He is consequently considered one of the best clutch kickers in history. He's been a solid fantasy scorer, ranking in or near the top ten in many years. Vinatieri had a career year in 2004, going 31 of 33 on field goals (93.9%) and scoring 141 points (best in the NFL that year). After ten years, his career averages are 82.3% on field goals and 115.6 points scored per year.
Worst Case
Despite another top ten finish, Vinatieri did not necessarily have a great year in 2007. His field goal percentage was down, as he went 23 of 29 (79.3%). He missed both his attempts in the 40 to 49 yard range. He missed three kicks from under 40 yards. He had two PAT attempts blocked. Although he hasn't had many opportunities recently, Vinatieri has not made a 50+ yard field goal since November of 2002. He has missed all seven attempts from that range since then. He is still a distant cousin of Evil Knievel. Are these indicators that Vinatieri is headed into a decline?
Outlook
Vinatieri played in all 16 games last year, after having battled injuries and missing three games in 2006. Even if his numbers have slipped a little, the Colts' offense cannot be discounted. Opportunities are more important than accuracy in most fantasy scoring systems. Over the past dozen years, Indianapolis has finished 10th, 4th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 19th, 2nd, 6th, 1st, 14th, 7th, and 2nd in kicker scoring. Their high powered offense continues to provide plenty of scoring opportunities, and there do not appear to be any strong reasons that they will not continue to do so. If you believe in patterns, then you'll like the fact that Vinatieri appears to do better in even numbered years. He connected on 90.0% of his field goal attempts in 2002, 93.9% in 2004, and 89.3% in 2006. Vinatieri still does well on kickoffs, averaging at least 65 yards each of the last two years and with 19 touchbacks during that time.
