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RB Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons

HT: 5-10, WT: 237, Born: 2-13-1982, College: Northern Illinois, Drafted: Round 5

2008 Projections

Best Case

Michael Turner has averaged 5.5 yards per carry during his career (228/1257/6 rushing) - if Atlanta's makeover of the offensive line has been successful, and Turner's shoulder is back to 100% healthy by training camp, the Falcons' rushing attack will be vastly improved during 2008. Jerious Norwood gained 6.0 yards per carry last season with Atlanta, so it may be in the realm of possibility for Turner to turn in a season mark well in excess of 4 yards per carry as the primary ball carrier during 2008. He could potentially be a top-10 fantasy running back this year, especially if he proves durable enough to become a 25+ carry-a-game, featured back that all fantasy owners crave for their teams.

Worst Case

If the Atlanta offensive line struggles to jell and/or Turner's shoulder injury nags him in the months to come, we might see a yards-per-carry average closer to Warrick Dunn's '07 average (3.1 yards per carry), with minimal TD production (Atlanta RBs scored a total of 7 TDs rushing last season, with 0 TDs receiving). If Turner doesn't transition to Atlanta well after 4 years in San Diego, Norwood could chew into his productivity, leaving us with 2 mediocre fantasy backs mired in a running back by committee. Turner isn't noted as a pass catcher - he has only 11 receptions in his career - which could limit him to a 2-down back role even if he is healthy and the line performs adequately.

Outlook

Given Turner's new home and the likelihood that the Falcons will be breaking in a rookie QB for much of the season, we see Turner as a candidate for RB2 status in fantasy terms - he should be of starting caliber, but we wouldn't advise spending a first or high second round selection on him this year. Most of the Footballguys staff has him somewhere in the high-teens to mid-20's on their individual RB ranking boards.

2007 Game Summaries

Week 1 - Turner did what he does best; that is, sit and wait his turn on the bench until the Chargers have built up a comfortable lead. Then enter the game late in the fourth quarter and run over everyone. Turner once again bested LaDainian Tomlinson on a per carry basis, as Turner came in and rumbled for 41 yards on ten carries to help run out the clock (4.1 YPC versus 1.5 YPC for Tomlinson).

Week 2 - Turner saw limited action and gained three yards on one carry. He also caught two passes for 14 yards.

Week 3 - Turner's role was almost nonexistent, despite the repeated struggles of LaDainian Tomlinson. Turner has to remain on fantasy rosters simply because of his upside, but at this point his role on the team is more of a true backup to Tomlinson rather than a complement.

Week 4 - Turner was pretty much a non-factor once again. Owners who handcuffed him to Tomlinson were wise in doing so, but unlike last season he hasn't been getting regular work to give him value in his own right. In this game, his biggest play was a negative one as he lost a fumble in his own territory early in the second quarter.

Week 5 - It was like 2006 all over again for Turner. After watching LaDainian Tomlinson receive the lion's share of the carries in the first half, Turner took a seemingly innocent handoff late in the first half and turned it into a 49 yard gallop to put the team in field goal range. Turner played halfback exclusively in the fourth quarter as the game became a blowout, and he further padded his stats. He took a handoff up the left side and followed some terrific downfield blocks to scamper in for the score from 74 yards out. He finished with a gaudy 14.7 yards per carry and reminded those Tomlinson owners exactly why he is on their fantasy roster in the first place.

Week 6 - A week after perhaps the best game of his career, Turner came up all but empty. His five carries were sporadic throughout the game, and when the Chargers were busy running out the clock it was LaDainian Tomlinson and not Turner, who got all of the touches. It just goes to show that for all of his upside and big runs, it's awfully tough to rely on him even when the game appears as if it'll be a blowout for the Chargers.

Week 8 - Despite the game being well in hand by halftime, Turner didn't really see very much work (even in the second half). LaDainian Tomlinson was still taking carries as late as the fourth quarter, and Turner saw three of his four carries on San Diego's final attempt to run out the clock.

Week 10 - Michael Turner did not receive a carry until the third quarter, where he got stacked up through the middle for a zero yard gain. Though that play was nullified by an offensive holding penalty, and he did not receive another touch in the game. Turner received one Philip Rivers target on a short dump off that hit him right in the hands, but he dropped the ball. It certainly wasn't one of Turner's strongest efforts as he rarely made it into this game even though the Chargers game plan was to run the ball with regularity while sitting on a big lead.

Week 12 - Turner had a couple of carries to spell Tomlinson, but didn't do much with them.

Week 15 - Turner saw more work than he has in weeks, but it could've been far more. He ran with his usual toughness on each of his five carries, with the long gain going for 10 yards. But he injured his shoulder late in the first half and did not return. Instead, third-string back Darren Sproles saw the lion's share of the carries in the second half and was extremely impressive. We doubt this one game will affect the pecking order in San Diego, but if something were to happen to Tomlinson over the next two weeks or in the postseason, it's no longer a sure thing that Turner would carry the load exclusively.

Week 16 - Turner spelled LaDainian Tomlinson, who was nursing a hamstring issue, at various points both in the first and second halves. But this was a very workmanlike performance from San Diego, and the win didn't include very many big gains. Turner's evening basically consisted of running straight into a pile of defenders and getting tackled after very minimal gains.

Week 17 - Turner didn't get his first carry of the game until the third quarter, but he quickly made up for lost time by rushing for 42 bruising yards on eleven carries. He ran hard and looked a lot like the Turner of last year; the guy who consistently needed five defenders to be hanging all over him before he would even consider allowing himself to be tackled. Turner was very determined to pick up every single last possible yard, and the effort was reflected in the stat line.

Week 18 - Turner didn't get a ton of action, but he worked hard for his 28 yards. When he came into the game, it most definitely gave the San Diego running game a different feel. No one is suggesting that Turner is a better runner than LaDainian Tomlinson, but against a defense like this, power running was much more valuable than shiftiness and elusiveness. Perhaps that explains why Turner picked up 28 yards compared to Tomlinson's 42 despite taking 12 fewer carries.

Week 19 - With LaDainian Tomlinson out of commission for the entire second half, Turner (an impending free agent) had an opportunity to make himself a whole boatload of cash this offseason with a dynamic performance. While he may not have lit up the stat sheet, Turner did a very serviceable job in place of the injured Tomlinson. A large reason for Turner's lower per carry average is because a good deal of his runs came late in the game during obvious rushing situations. Indianapolis was able to stack the line on several occasions and have no fear about getting beaten downfield. Turner had very few holes to run in, and a less powerful back wouldn't have gotten anywhere near the 71 yards Turner picked up. He also was very close to an extremely costly gaffe on the last touchdown drive. He was taken down at the goal line and the ball came loose, though he was ruled down on the play. Not much mention was made of it because he certainly was down, but the ball didn't come loose because of the ground; it came loose because it was knocked loose by the Colts. He just happened to already have his knee on the ground. Otherwise, this could have been a very different outcome. QB Billy Volek dove in from a yard out on the next play for the eventual game-winning score. He also had a chance to seal the victory without giving Indianapolis the ball, but he was stopped short of first down yardage on three runs late in the fourth quarter. Had he picked up ten yards on those three carries, the game would have ended on kneeldowns. As it was, he only managed seven yards, and the Chargers punted away to give Peyton Manning one last chance to win (which he was of course unable to do).

Tomlinson is expected to play next week's game, but if he cannot go then obviously Turner would have a far larger workload. Even if Tomlinson does suit up, it stands to reason that Turner's role could be expanded somewhat to give Tomlinson's knee more rest.

Week 20 - Turner once again was given the vast majority of the rushing duties with star halfback LaDainian Tomlinson relegated to the bench with a knee injury. Turner started off extremely well, but his production actually tailed off as the game went on. His first run went for five yards and his second was a tough 12 yard run that took several defenders to bring him down. But his remaining fifteen carries went for just 48 yards (3.2 YPC) and he was a complete non-factor in the passing game. He was also involved in perhaps the most crucial play of the game, a third and one carry from the New England four yard line midway through the third quarter. With the Chargers trailing 14-9, Turner took a carry off of left tackle and was immediately met in the hole by LB Junior Seau. Rather than running over Seau, Turner was almost instantly knocked backward for a loss. The Chargers had to settle for a field goal, which cut the deficit to 14-12. But they never got close to scoring again.