Week 4 QB projections   •  DET Stats

QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

HT: 6-2, WT: 225, Born: 2-7-1988, College: Georgia, Drafted: Round 1, Pick 1

2011 Projections

Average draft position

Current as of September 6th. [Full ADP list]

Overall: S Moss (78), Matthew Stafford (79), J Jones (80), J Stewart (81)
Position: P Manning (61-QB10), J Freeman (75-QB11), Matthew Stafford (79 - QB12), E Manning (83-QB13), S Bradford (90-QB14)
Click here for a comparison of these players.

PPR Average draft position

Current as of September 6th. [Full PPR ADP list]

Overall: S Rice (78), J Graham (79), Matthew Stafford (80), J Freeman (81), M Tolbert (82)
Position: B Roethlisberger (67-QB9), P Manning (72-QB10), Matthew Stafford (80 - QB11), J Freeman (81-QB12), E Manning (89-QB13)
Click here for a comparison of these players.

 Click here to go to the Matthew Stafford spotlight, our staff's most detailed analysis.

Relevant Articles

Why he is undervalued

Sigmund Bloom - With Mikel LeShoure out for the year, the Lions will clearly be running a ton of spread/shotgun shots, which makes Stafford a combustible fantasy commodity this year. He could flame out with another shoulder injury, but Stafford will put up big numbers for as long as he is healthy. He is no sure thing to play all 16 games, but if he is your #1 QB, you will have one more top RB or WR than your opponents, giving you the luxury of taking a Sam Bradford or Josh Freeman to be part of your upside QBBC with Stafford.

Jene Bramel - The top three tiers of my quarterback rankings look very much like the consensus, with one exception -- Matthew Stafford. I think it's correct to be concerned about Stafford's durability and lack of a clear second receiving target. But I see a strong-armed leader with an elite WR1, a strong set of red zone options and one of the better receiving threats at RB in the league. I think 4000 yards and 25+ touchdowns are well within reach. An ADP of QB14 puts Stafford firmly in the QBBC tier. I think he belongs a tier higher alongside Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Freeman and Matt Schaub. If you decide to use a QBBC approach in your draft, I think Stafford should be your priority target.

Ryan Hester - Like Romo, Matt Stafford's biggest "con" is his inability to stay healthy. In his rookie year of 2009, he threw for 226 yards per game and 13 TDs. Last season, in just three games, he had 6 TDs and just one interception. Stafford still looks like the promising young QB who the Lions drafted #1 overall in 2009. At the point in the draft where he and the closest-ranked QB -- Joe Flacco (91 overall) -- are going, I'd much rather be looking for a high-ceiling player than a high-floor player. The weapons around Stafford are more explosive than those around Flacco so I see him as that kind of player. Stafford's rank here seems to be based more on risk-mitigation than on talent.

Steve Holloway - Stafford's ranking is undoubtedly connected to his injuries. In his two seasons, he has played and completed only 12 games total. For those games, he has averaged 227 yards passing per game and 1.58 passing TDs. His receivers this season are very dynamic including Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, Brandon Pettigrew, Nate Burleson, and a speedy rookie in Titus Young. Their rookie RB, who might have provided the Lions a better opportunity to balance their offense has already been lost for the season. Look for Stafford's passing numbers to improve.

Jeff Pasquino - Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Brandon Pettigrew, Tony Scheffler and Jahvid Best are five guys who should be scoring multiple touchdowns via the pass for Detroit this year. Stafford is one of the few quarterbacks available after the Top 7-8 guys are selected that can put up big week after big week and has 30+ TD potential. As long as he stays healthy he will push for Top 10 status for 2011.

Chris Smith - I love what Matthew Stafford brings to the table in Detroit. Obviously the huge caveat here is his health with just 13 games in two seasons. He was off to a very good start last year and throwing the ball to Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew can mean good things in 2011.

Matt Waldman - Injuries have never really been a part of the equation prior to Matt Stafford entering the NFL. David Dodds seems to believe that the Lions have a pretty good line. I haven't studied the line hard enough to say. What I do know is that Detroit has done nothing to upgrade that unit, which means either the confidence is there or Matt Millen snuck back into the building armed with a hypnotist. I think Stafford outperforms Joe Flacco and has a reasonable shot to match or exceed Eli Manning's typical production during the past two seasons.

Latest News

Lions | Matthew Stafford to get bump in salary (Mon Feb 6, 02:57 PM) - Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford's 2012 salary has increased by $1 million and is now scheduled to make $11.5 million because he fulfilled an escalator clause in his contract. His 2013 salary has will increase $500,000 and is scheduled to make $12 million.

link to story   

Lions | Matthew Stafford wins Comeback Player of Year (Sat Feb 4, 11:06 PM) - Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford was named The Associated Press Comeback Player of the Year Saturday, Feb. 4. Stafford became one of just four quarterbacks in the history of the NFL to throw for more than 5,000 yards (5,038) and 40 touchdowns (41) in a season. 'It's an honor,' Stafford said. 'There were a lot guys up there that were deserving as well; you saw the candidates and some of the nominees, and you know how hard they worked to get back.'

link to story   

2011 Schedule

2011 Game Summaries

Week 1 - Stafford put up some unreal stats in the pre-season, and many wondered if he was going to able to keep the same pace in the regular season. It's safe to say that that Stafford is for real and he's going to be a dangerous fantasy QB this season. He maintained his poise, even after throwing a pick-six early in the game. The interception was a tipped pass to Will Heller that was picked off and returned for a TD. However, Stafford stayed focused and led his team back to the end zone three times. His first TD pass to Calvin Johnson was a beautiful rainbow over two defenders into Megatron's waiting arms. Johnson strolled into the end zone for an easy score. His second TD pass was on a roll out to the right side, where he was able to thread the needle between three defenders to find Tony Scheffler for the TD. For the third TD, Stafford went back to Megatron on a jump ball near the side of the end zone. Stafford threw the ball high enough where only Johnson could come down with it and his favorite target did not disappoint. Perhaps the best news for fantasy owners though was Stafford's willingness to stay in the pocket and work his receivers rather than take off running and risk serious injury. If Stafford can maintain this poise throughout the season, he could become one of the top fantasy QBS in the league.

Week 2 - On the opening drive Stafford hit and completed his 1st four pass attempts of the game. Everything was flowing and then he saw a heavy rush from the Chiefs and made a poor decision that almost cost the Lions the ball at midfield but fortunately for Stafford, the defender John McGraw fumbled the ball shortly after he intercepted it and Tony Scheffler recovered the football. That could have switched the momentum of the game early. Stafford was accurate but it should be noted that he was not throwing the ball down field much. You don't have to in the NFL and the game has evolved so that short passing games have taken the place of a lot of runs but Stafford was benefting form dumping the ball of or connecting on short passes and allowing his receivers and backs to make plays after the catch. That's a nice luxury that Stafford has with guys like Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best. Early on he benefited from 2 personal foul calls on the opening drive and also a roughing the punter call which put him and the offense right back on the field. He also had several 3 and outs in the early part of the game. Now Stafford did start making some down field throws once the Lions got up 14-3. And that's seems like good coaching because the reality is that while Stafford is in year 3 as an NFL QB, he only has about 15 starts under his belt so the coaches do a fantastic job of putting him in good situations and keeping him out of harm's way. he still does not have a great OL and he does move around to make plays because of the pass rush. Once he settles in for the afternoon though he can tear the defenses apart. He did a nice job of making sure his skill position supporting cast had maximum opportunities to cash in and they did. Stafford looks good but this writer doesn't put him in the top10 yet in the NFL. He is however a potential top10 fantasy QB on just about any week right now. The Lions are not a great smash mouth run team so they are going to take ot the air which means big things for Stafford owners.

Week 3 - This game was a tale of two halves for everyone involved, but no one enjoyed the second half more than Matthew Stafford. After a brutal first half in which Stafford was sacked twice after being untouched in his first 2 games of the 2011 season and found rhythm and timing very difficult to come by with his receivers, Stafford lit up the Vikings in the second half, bringing the Lions back from down 20-0 at halftime for the overtime victory. For the first 30 minutes, the Lions' offense did not look like the well-oiled machine it was in weeks 1 and 2; finding little running room and even less time to throw under the relentless pressure of the Vikings' defensive front. After a forgettable first quarter that produced a pair of 3 and outs, the Lions adjusted the gameplan in an attempt to slow the pass rush and create space for playmakers by going to more quick-hitting pass plays, screens, and draws almost exclusively from the shotgun. However, the timing was still lacking through the second quarter that saw a few decent drives stall around midfield. Stafford and the Lions' staff really showed what makes this team a contender in the NFC North after halftime, though, as they exploited the holes in the middle of the secondary, primarily to Brandon Pettigrew. Stafford also found ways to negate the rush by using the screen, including his longest pass play--a 60-yarder to Jahvid Best to end the 3rd quarter. Then, when it came time to deliver the knockout punch, Stafford found his favorite big play target, 6'5" Calvin Johnson, who hauled in both of Staffords TD's and the all-important 40-yarder that set up the game winning FG in overtime. The composure Stafford showed in the hostile environment of the Metrodome and under the constant pressure by Jared Allen and company was impressive as the Lions kept pace with the defending Super Bowl champion Packers at 3-0 to start the season.

Week 4 - Stafford did not look especially sharp in this game, yet he still managed to keep his team focused and lead them to victory when the defense created the opportunities. In the first half of the game, Stafford and the Lions were unable to get any rhythm going. It wasn't until the defense returned two interceptions for TDS that the Detroit offense finally work up and got back into the game. After the final Dallas Field goal made it 30-17, Stafford got the ball for only the second time in the second half and went to work with 37 seconds left in the third quarter. Stafford opened up by hitting Brandon Pettigrew down the middle of the field for a bit 22 yard gain. To start the 4th quarter, Stafford hit Titus Young with two consecutive passes before finding Megatron in the end zone. Stafford threw a perfect 'jump ball' and Calvin out battled two guys to come down with the big reception. When the Cowboys turned the ball over for the final time, and Stafford had a chance to win the game, he calmly marched his team down the field, and with first and goal from the one and less than two minutes to play, he threw another jump ball for Calvin to come down with, giving the Lions another come from behind victory. For the game, Stafford struggled. The defense was relentless and he took a lot of hard shots. He frequently dumped the ball or threw it away to avoid the pressure. He can be rattled. Had the defense not pulled them out in the third quarter, I'm not sure Stafford could have done it himself. However, when his team put him in a position to win, Stafford delivered. In the end, that's all that really counts.