Week 4 QB projections   •  SF Stats

QB Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers

HT: 6-4, WT: 212, Born: 5-7-1984, College: Utah, Drafted: Round 1, Pick 1

2011 Projections

Average draft position

Current as of September 6th. [Full ADP list]

Overall: R Moss (221), Alex Smith (222), J Hill (223),
Position: M Hasselbeck (187-QB27), C Henne (206-QB28), Alex Smith (222 - QB29), T Tebow (231-QB30), J Beck (245-QB31)
Click here for a comparison of these players.

Best Case

Alex Smith once again finds himself with the inside track to start for the San Francisco 49ers. The new offense of Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman promises to utilize the strengths of Smiths game and with more weapons than ever at his disposal the former No.1 overall pick could suprise fantasy owners with a decent season. Vernon Davis has helped Alex Smith become someone you can start on an occasional basis. If any of Michael Crabtree, Braylon Edwards or Josh Morgan get hot then fantasy owners could be in for a pleasant bonus. The drafting of Colin Kaepernick may not be the end of Smith that some are predicting. Kaepernick has a lot to learn and has high boom/bust potential. If Smith can be productive, then he may keep his position once again.

Worst Case

Alex Smith has only played a full season once in his career, in 2006. Injury, poor form and coaching changes are among the reasons he has failed to finish out a season. Smith lacks accuracy and arm strength and has struggled to find reliable weapons. Vernon Davis has helped elevate his play, but he needs more from the other receivers. Michael Crabtree is fast running out of friends in the Bay area and Braylon Edwards who joins the team is hardly Mr Reliable. The drafting of Colin Kaepernick high in the 2nd round was a clear signal that the 49ers are moving ahead and are just using Smith to protect Kaepernick until later in the season. With a shocking preseason performance, Smith may find the 49ers looking elsewhere sooner rather than later.

Outlook

Alex Smith may not have much luck with consistency of coaching staff, with yet another head coach and offensive coordinator to tutor him, but somehow he always ends up with another chance to start for the San Francisco 49ers. Only once in his NFL career has he had the same offensive coordinator for 2 seasons running and that didn't last long when Jimmy Raye was fired into week 5 last year. Smith has definitely improved as a quarterback since his very shaky beginning, recording 32 touchdowns to 22 interceptions over the last 2 years, despite missing 9 games. Smith looks like he is keeping the seat warm for Colin Kaepernick, but Smith keeps defying the odds to remain a 49er. Those considering him for their fantasy rosters may have to discard him quickly when the usual something derails his season, but he should be productive in spurts and is worth drafting in deeper leagues provided his 1st preseason game wasn't a death knell to his prospects this season.

2011 Schedule

2011 Game Summaries

Week 1 - Smith didn't lose the game for San Francisco, but he only led his team to victory because of their weak opponent. The team's playcalling -- especially in the red zone -- was atrocious and seriously lacked creativity. Some might say that's why Smith didn't generate any big plays, but others will say it's because of Smith that the playbook can't be fully opened. New head coach Jim Harbaugh is a former QB who has shown creative play-calling in his college stints. His lack of belief in Smith (and his lack of need to exercise that belief due to Seattle's ineptitude) led to many boring run plays right up the middle and mainly short, safe passes by Smith. It appeared that he was instructed not to force anything deep, and with Vernon Davis and Frank Gore as check-down options, why would he? Smith did a nice job of being accurate within the framework of the throws he was asked to make, but if the team is this reluctant to open up the offense, he should be considered an ineffective QB even when he goes 15/20 and doesn't thrown any interceptions. In today's NFL (outside the NFC West at least), quarterbacks need to win games -- as opposed to not losing them.

Week 2 - Smith had a solid game against the Cowboys in week two. He did a reasonable job in protecting the ball considering the fierce Dallas pass-rush. However, he was unable to connect on any long passes and as a result the 49ers were unable to match Dallas in the big play department. Most of Smith's passes came on short routes that took advantage of the Cowboys anticipating deep throws. Smith was also effective passing on the run as he was often flushed out of the pocket by Demarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff. His best play came on a third down scramble that came up short of the first down but demonstrated just how effective he can be as a quarterback. On the play, Smith was flushed up the middle and was able to weave for a 12 yard gain. Outside of an inability to convert deep passes, Smith often settles for a short gain when more yardage is needed. At least twice on Sunday he checked down for a 5 to 7 yard completion on third and long; a more savvy or experienced quarterback would have likely looked for a longer gain to be had. Smith continues to show that he is a capable quarterback at the NFL level. If he is ever able to solve his downfield passing issues he could be even more productive.

Week 3 - Smith's day in a nutshell: he threw poorly, made bad decisions, and allowed defenders to hit him -- hard - when rushing the ball (and yes, he did just suffer a concussion last week). Kind of a 'what-not-to-do' QB training manual. In the end, he did just enough for the win. Smith was smart enough to notice that Vernon Davis made him look good nearly every time he threw in his direction, so he threw to him often. Smith also discovered that Michael Crabtree can catch, even if you're occasionally aiming for the Goodyear blimp with the pass (which he also did often). Seriously, Smith is fast becoming the Nuke Laloosh of football. His passes are all over the place, and often thrown too hard for the receiver to react. Smith really didn't appear to be in synch with any of receivers - including Davis - who had a great day despite the erratic throws. He's got talent around him in Crabtree and Davis (and the injured Braylon Edwards) and that was his saving grace. Smith did throw what appeared to be a touchdown to Crabtree, but the officials nullified it, calling the receiver out of bounds prior to the catch (the replay shows otherwise, but there was no review). It also became clear that Smith is really not seeing the whole field. In the red zone, for example, he would ignore his man in the flat, hoping for a deeper target. By the time he came back to the flat, his man was covered but he'd throw it to him anyway. On another similar play, where it looked like the back would have had room to get into the end zone, Smith ignored him and took the sack. On a day where he at least had better numbers than the opposing QB, I wish I could say something complimentary about Smith, but I just can't. If he can better utilize the talent around him, he could improve. But isn't that what they were saying about him last year?