Week 4 QB projections • HOU Stats
QB Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
HT: 6-5, WT: 237, Born: 6-25-1981, College: Virginia, Drafted: Round 3
| Outlook • Career Statistics • Game Logs • Split Stats • Play-by-play • Latest News |
2011 Projections
| G | CMP | ATT | PYD | Y/A | PTD | INT | RSH | YD | Y/R | TD | FPT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Dodds | 15 | 342 | 524 | 3982 | 7.6 | 26 | 16 | 30 | 45 | 1.5 | 0 | 302 |
| Bob Henry | 15 | 364 | 555 | 4290 | 7.7 | 24 | 14 | 25 | 35 | 1.4 | 0 | 310 |
| Jason Wood | 16 | 350 | 545 | 4070 | 7.5 | 24 | 13 | 30 | 55 | 1.8 | 0 | 303 |
Average draft position
Current as of September 6th. [Full ADP list]
Overall: D Clark (49), M Colston (50), Matt Schaub (51), M Ingram (52), B Lloyd (53)Position: P Rivers (24-QB5), T Romo (35-QB6), Matt Schaub (51 - QB7), M Ryan (54-QB8), B Roethlisberger (58-QB9)
Click here for a comparison of these players.
PPR Average draft position
Current as of September 6th. [Full PPR ADP list]
Overall: A Boldin (56), R Grant (57), Matt Schaub (58), M Manningham (59), C Wells (60)Position: P Rivers (29-QB5), T Romo (44-QB6), Matt Schaub (58 - QB7), M Ryan (61-QB8), B Roethlisberger (67-QB9)
Click here for a comparison of these players.
Click here to go to the Matt Schaub spotlight, our staff's most detailed analysis.
Best Case
A year after joining the elite tier of fantasy QBs, Schaub's 2010 let a lot of his owners down - if you only look at his numbers on the surface. His yards on the season dropped by 400 and his passing touchdowns dropped by five, but most of that can be chalked up to a run-heavy season-opener vs. the Colts and a complete dud in week 5 vs. the Giants. In fact, in the second half of 2010, Schaub produced at an almost identical pace to 2009, when he finished as the #4 fantasy QB. He only threw for under 250 yards once in the final eight games (five of which were 300+ yard efforts) and threw at least one touchdown in every contest during that stretch (including five with more than one). Schaub's durability has also been proven the last two seasons, as he hasn't missed a game after missing ten during his first two years with the Texans. He was also playing with a banged-up #1 (Andre Johnson) and slowed receiving TE (Owen Daniels) for a good part of the year.
Worst Case
The Texans hired Dallas Cowboys cast-off Wade Phillips to run their new 3-4 defense in January, one of the proven best defensive minds in football. He has the talent in the front seven to mask the perennial issues in the Texans secondary and keep the team from repeating as a bottom five scoring defense. If the D does get tightened up, Schaub will get into less track meets, like the three 50+ attempt games last year than accounted for his three highest passing yardage games. With a stronger defense, the Texans can have a more balanced game plan, and Schaub's numbers could resemble his 2010 first-half split, which only projects to 4000/20 over a full season.
Outlook
Schaub has fallen out of favor in fantasy football circles, meaning he can probably be had as the ninth or tenth QB off the board in drafts this year. He could easily be back in the top five once again with a full strength Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson. If Schaub can carry over his production clip from the second half of 2010 and his career year of 2009, he'll be one of the best values at QB in 2011.
Relevant Articles
Message board spotlight thread - July 22ndMatt Schaub Spotlight - July 22nd
Why he is undervalued
according to one of our writers (based on an ADP > 250 on Aug 17 --- go here for the complete article)Colin Dowling - Schaub is being drafted as QB8. In 2010 he finished as QB9, so it's a little difficult to see any value at first. But he was QB4 in 2009 and the 2010 campaign was marred by some atrocious games in the first half of the year. He was fourth in the league in passing yards and one touchdown away from finishing as QB7. Schaub is one of only a handful of quarterbacks in the league that has the ability and the surrounding offense to pass for more then 350 yards or 4 touchdowns in a single contest. He is one of a handful of quarterbacks who can win games for you almost by himself. Considering that he can be had near the end of the fifth round while Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees are gone by the end of the second, Matt Schaub represents nice value this season at the quarterback position.
Why he is overvalued
according to four of our writers (based on an ADP > 250 on Aug 17 --- go here for the complete article)David Dodds - With an improved defense and one of the best running backs in the game, we are likely to see the Houston Texans run the ball more in 2011. Schaub stayed healthy the last two years, despite a playing style that often puts his body at risk. Although injuries are hard to predict, I do think his fearless style of standing in and delivering the ball at all costs does make him more likely than many other QBs to not play a full 16 games. There are too many safer options at QB to take Schaub near his ADP this season.
Will Grant - Schaub is now two seasons removed from his 4700 yard 29 TD performance in 2009. He's also on a team that has the guy a lot of folks consider the top fantasy RB in the game -- Arian Foster. The addition of Wade Phillips should improve their defense as well, removing the need to throw the ball 50+ times a game like they did last season. Steve Holloway - Schaub has been very productive over the past two seasons, but is overvalued because the Texan defense will be much improved, especially later in the season. That combined with the development of Arian Foster leads to less need to pass and an increase in rushing attempts. Another factor is that Scahub appears to be at the top of a large tier just below the second level QBs and there are five or six QBs ranked immediately after him that should perform very near his level and can be drafted much later. Jeff Tefertiller - Schaub is coming off a QB9 finish and is a longshot to outplay his fifth round ADP. So much has to go right for him to come close to producing Top 10 numbers for his position. Both Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels have to be healthy. The fifth round is full of quality players at the running back and wide receiver positions so there is no reason to take the chance on Schaub. It is best to either wait on another passer or grab a higher quality one a round before.2011 Schedule
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
| 1 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2 | at Miami Dolphins |
| 3 | at New Orleans Saints |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 5 | Oakland Raiders |
| 6 | at Baltimore Ravens |
| 7 | at Tennessee Titans |
| 8 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 9 | Cleveland Browns |
| 10 | at Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| Bye week | |
| 12 | at Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 13 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 14 | at Cincinnati Bengals |
| 15 | Carolina Panthers |
| 16 | at Indianapolis Colts |
| 17 | Tennessee Titans |
2011 Game Summaries
Week 1 - A solid running game quickly opened up the play action pass for quarterback Matt Schaub and the Texans. Schaub frequently bootlegged and moved well in and out of the pocket. He threw well on the run for the most part, but on a few occasions overthrew his receiver, including a high pass that Andre Johnson tipped but couldn't bring in, which resulted in an interception. Texans receivers were getting open most of the day, while the offensive line kept the pressure to a minimum. Schaub's second interception came when he delivered the ball straight to linebacker Gary Brackett who had dropped into coverage after having faked a pass rush. Other than a few overthrows, Schaub did a good job leading his receivers and allowing them to catch the ball in stride. He was late on one or two occasions, including missing an opportunity for a touchdown to Owen Daniels. In the red zone there was a fairly even mix of rushing and pass attempts. The Texans did not target their running backs in the passing game, with Steve Slaton receiving the lone running back reception on a screen play.
Week 2 - The Texans started off the game moving the ball well, but had difficulties early in the game getting into the end zone. Four times the offense was in the red zone in the first half but came away with a field goal. There were a fairly even mix between run and pass in the red zone. The offensive line was inconsistent, starting out strong but then committing penalties and allowing pressure that killed drives. Schaub was accurate including on deep throws where he and Andre Johnson nearly connected on what would have been a deep over-the-shoulder touchdown had Johnson been able to hang onto it. Once the Texans opened a ten point lead early in the 4th quarter, they put the passing game on the shelf and Schaub spent the rest of the game handing the ball off to Ben Tate.
Week 3 - The Saints did not blitz very often until the fourth quarter, instead dropping their linebackers into zone coverage. Early in the game Schaub had a lot of time to throw and showed good accuracy, getting the ball to receivers in a position they could catch and run. The Texans used a lot of play action and boot legs as they normally do. Schaub moved the Texans up the field continually in the first three quarters, but the team had difficulty converting on red zone opportunities and came away with field goals. Later in the game the Saints brought more pressure and Schaub made some poorer decisions, including an interception that was his fault. There were two other passes that defenders had their hands on, though one of them turned into a tip drill that ended up in the hands of Kevin Walter who ran it in for a touchdown.