Week 4 QB projections • ATL Stats
QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
HT: 6-4, WT: 228, Born: 5-17-1985, College: Boston College, Drafted: Round 1, Pick 3
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2011 Projections
| G | CMP | ATT | PYD | Y/A | PTD | INT | RSH | YD | Y/R | TD | FPT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Dodds | 16 | 336 | 536 | 3720 | 6.9 | 27 | 14 | 22 | 44 | 2.0 | 0 | 297 |
| Bob Henry | 15 | 339 | 555 | 4002 | 7.2 | 27 | 13 | 40 | 80 | 2.0 | 1 | 323 |
| Jason Wood | 16 | 350 | 555 | 3875 | 7.0 | 26 | 12 | 25 | 50 | 2.0 | 1 | 311 |
Average draft position
Current as of September 6th. [Full ADP list]
Overall: M Ingram (52), B Lloyd (53), Matt Ryan (54), S Johnson (55), V Davis (56)Position: T Romo (35-QB6), M Schaub (51-QB7), Matt Ryan (54 - QB8), B Roethlisberger (58-QB9), P Manning (61-QB10)
Click here for a comparison of these players.
PPR Average draft position
Current as of September 6th. [Full PPR ADP list]
Overall: M Manningham (59), C Wells (60), Matt Ryan (61), J Maclin (62), C Benson (63)Position: T Romo (44-QB6), M Schaub (58-QB7), Matt Ryan (61 - QB8), B Roethlisberger (67-QB9), P Manning (72-QB10)
Click here for a comparison of these players.
Click here to go to the Matt Ryan spotlight, our staff's most detailed analysis.
Best Case
No QB had his team make a bigger commitment to improving his weapons in the draft than Ryan's did. Even though AJ Green went before #6 overall pick Julio Jones, the Falcons mortgaged their future to give Ryan a big strong physical freak to line up opposite of Roddy White and keep defenses off balance. Tony Gonzalez should be back for another season to work the middle of the field. Ryan set career highs in attempts, completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns in 2010, his third season, while throwing the fewest interceptions in a season in his career (9). That progression should only continue for a cerebral, competitive, and hard-working QB like Ryan who is committed to being the best. Ryan also has a first place schedule that could include more than a few shootouts with teams like Tampa and New Orleans twice, plus Philadelphia, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, and Indianapolis.
Worst Case
Even though Ryan puts up nice year-end numbers, he has not been as explosive on a game-by-game basis as the QBs taken ahead of him in fantasy drafts. Ryan had only one 300-yard game and threw for one or fewer touchdowns in almost half of his games (7) last year despite throwing the sixth-most passes of any QB in the league. He is the kind of QB who will rarely put up one of the worst games in any given week, but also rarely put up one of the best. The Falcons have added another quality RB in Jacquizz Rodgers, and if they re-sign Jason Snelling, they will have the horses to play ball control football whenever the game script allows it. His lack of a big deep arm limits the number of big plays he creates, and the lockout is cutting into crucial time he could use to get on the same page with Jones.
Outlook
Ryan will go off the board as the seventh or eighth QB at the earliest, but he has a real chance to join the ranks of the elite fantasy QBs this year. He is a good plan A at QB because taking him will likely allow you to take at least 4-5 WR/RB and possibly even an elite TE before addressing quarterback. He is a high-floor passer who won't let your team down and may be poised to add the massive 300+ yard 3+ TD game to his repertoire regularly this year with his team's big move to upgrade the passing game.
Relevant Articles
Message board spotlight thread - August 14thMatt Ryan Spotlight - August 14th
Why he is undervalued
according to four of our writers (based on an ADP > 250 on Aug 17 --- go here for the complete article)Mike Brown - Ryan will helm one of the league's most potentially explosive offenses this season. He has already proven himself a capable fantasy starter, but now he's been given even more toys to work with in the passing game. The drafting of Julio Jones should terrify NFL defensive coordinators, because it will amazingly enough open up lanes for Roddy White even MORE. Ryan has got a dynamic running game and three top-flight options in the passing game, not to mention the expected continued improvement of Ryan himself. A top-5 finish is not only possible, but likely.
Dave Larkin - Matt Ryan is just a solid, all-around veteran quarterback. His offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey knows exactly how to get the most out of him and plays to his skill set well. The Falcons offensive line lost valuable guard Harvey Dahl, but the line is solid and gives Ryan time to survey the field. Cerebral, smart and a leader, Ryan now has the hungry Julio Jones to throw to, as well as Roddy White, perhaps the best wide receiver in the game. Aaron Rudnicki - Ryan has shown improvement every year that he's been in the league. His touchdown totals improved from 16 to 22 to 28 and his average fantasy points per game have gone from approximately 15 to 17 to 20. At 26 years of age, he is just starting to enter the prime playing years of his career and the Falcons have done a good job of providing him with a strong group of weapons in the passing game. Roddy White is among the league's elite receivers, but the team also traded up for rookie Julio Jones this year and Harry Douglas should be a nice fit working out of the slot along with tight end Tony Gonzalez. Michael Turner and Jason Snelling should continue to provide an effective running game and the offensive line should continue to provide Ryan with plenty of time to throw. I think Ryan is a safe selection at this point in the draft with the chance to put up numbers every bit as good as the QBs being drafted much earlier. Mark Wimer - Ryan has improved each year he's been under center in Atlanta, and last year he cracked the top-10 at his position. The Falcons are emphasizing creating more explosive/deep passing plays this year, and they brought in Julio Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers to help Ryan take the offense to a new level. Given their elite #1 WR, Roddy White, Ryan should vault into the elite tier of QBs this year in a more wide-open Falcons' offense.Why he is overvalued
according to three of our writers (based on an ADP > 250 on Aug 17 --- go here for the complete article)David Dodds - There is no doubt that Matt Ryan is an extremely talented QB. Adding rookie sensation WR Julio Jones gives Matt yet another weapon in his arsenal too. So what's not to like? I just don't see the team throwing it 571 times again this season. Michael Turner, Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers are solid runners. They will get their carries. Let others fall into the hype.
Will Grant - The presence of Julio Jones won't suddenly turn Matt Ryan into a 4000 yard passer. The Falcons like to run and with Michael Turner, Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers, Seven games with one or fewer TDs last season doesn't excite me either. Ryan Hester - Many times in fantasy sports, there are players who are better in fantasy than in reality. Matt Ryan can be classified as the opposite. An efficient passer who wins games, Ryan had a great season last year -- and still finished as the 8th-best fantasy QB. With an injury to Tony Romo and a four game suspension of Ben Roethlisberger, that might be an inflated position. This is still a run-first team with head coach Mike Smith's philosophies and the presence of Michael Turner. If Ryan is paired with another QB between 7 and 12 as a backup or matchup play, he's a nice addition to a fantasy team. But don't expect him to be a top-5 fantasy QB this year.2011 Schedule
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
| 1 | at Chicago Bears |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 3 | at Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 4 | at Seattle Seahawks |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers |
| 6 | Carolina Panthers |
| 7 | at Detroit Lions |
| Bye week | |
| 9 | at Indianapolis Colts |
| 10 | New Orleans Saints |
| 11 | Tennessee Titans |
| 12 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 13 | at Houston Texans |
| 14 | at Carolina Panthers |
| 15 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 16 | at New Orleans Saints |
| 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
2011 Game Summaries
Week 1 - Matt Ryan started off very efficiently with the ball but ultimately a huge weakness in his philosophy was uncovered. Ryan spread the ball well and hit his recievers in stride early on with short routes. However, this kind of dinking and dunking passing game requires a high level of execution and leaves almost no room for mistakes. Ryan started to miss some throws and the whole offense became very stagnant as they could not remain on the field. Ryan threw a poor interception to LB Urlacher as he was trying to fit the ball over his head to his TE but simply under estimated Urlachers athletic ability. Later in the game, Ryan lost the ball in his own half with turned into a scoop and score as he hung in the pocket for too long. The Bears defense must be given credit as they stifled the Falcons and did not give up any big plays down the field. The Bears allowed Ryan to play his short game of passing and eventually mistakes started and Ryans game unravelled. Ryan's offensive line did not give him sufficient time in the pocket at times as he took a lot of big hits. He finished the game with some garbage numbers and completions but really this game was never close.
Week 2 - Matt Ryan had a rocky game on the national stage on Sunday night, but he kept his composure just enough to pull out a thrilling come from behind victory versus a game Eagles team. Ryan was under pressure from the start of the game and by mid-way through the contact he was reacting to it when it wasn't even there. The lack of time to go through his progressions made it difficult for him to look downfield much so he relied heavily on Tony Gonzalez time after time. He was really having a subpar game (he had thrown 2 INT's heading into the 4th quarter) before engineering two long TD drives late to carry the Falcons to victory. When the dust cleared Ryan had tossed a career high 4 TD's in the face of a tough game from one of the league's best teams and rose to the occasion when the Falcons needed it most.
Week 3 - Pressure Pressure Pressure!!! Matt Ryan was under pressure the entire day and his Tackles did a horrific job of slowing the down the Bucs Defensive Linemen coming off the ends as well as LBs on the blitz although the Bucs were getting solid pressure all day from their front 4 alone. If the Falcons cannot get Matt Ryan better pass protection it's going to be a long year. Atlanta should probably be 0-3 right now. Give Ryan a lot of credit for hanging in the pocket as much as he did but all day he had to keep throwing the ball to short hot routes and only a handful of times was he able to really challenge the Bucs down field. Even when he could get some time in the pocket he did not cash in. Case in point he had Julio Jones with a few steps on the defense but he under threw the ball and Jones had to peel back and wait for the ball to get to him where is he had caught it in stride he would have waltzed into the end zone. The Falcons did try to go no huddle and that worked for a while as Ryan found Roddy White on a give and go route where White was able to shake off the Bucs defender and turn a 15 yard play into 30 yards which resulted in the Falcons first score of the game. Owners should be concerned about Matt Ryan because if his pass protection remains poor then his health over the season is going to be in jeopardy. He was hit early and often throughout the game and eventually that leads to turnovers which he accounted for three of them on the day. The plus though is he still managed to throw for over 300 yds and he still has a dynamite trio to throw the ball to in White, Jones, and Gonzalez. The Falcons simply need to pass protect for him better or get some additional blockers to stay in and help out.
Week 4 - Ryan had a stellar first half. He began the day 4-for-4 on his opening drive, which was capped with a short TD to Tony Gonzalez. Ryan showed great composure and kept the Seahawks off balance throughout. In part, it was because he has such a dangerous trio to throw to: White and Jones each can be unstoppable at times, and when they were covered, Gonzalez always seemed to be there underneath. Ryan also mixed things up a little, getting a first down on what looked like a planned bootleg but was more likely quick decision making upon seeing plenty of room ahead of him. The timing of Ryan's throws was generally impeccable, and gave his receiving corps the best chance at gaining more yards. In a smart adjustment by the defence, the Seahawks forced Ryan to throw to his RB's and TE's more in the second half. Ryan was still able to move the ball through the air, but was clearly struggling; he did try to go deep to Jones again but his rhythm was off and he overthrew. Late in the game, the Falcons used the no huddle offense, and had a lot of trouble trying to audible against Seattle's "12th man" (the fans). Even though at this point in the game, the Seahawks had all the momentum, Ryan kept his cool and did everything he could to keep moving the chains, putting the ball into Gonzalez's hand often, and even scrambling for a 7 yard 3rd-down conversion.