QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
HT: 6-2, WT: 220, Born: 12-2-1983, College: California, Drafted: Round 1, Pick 24
|Outlook • Career Statistics • Game Logs • Split Stats • Play-by-play • Latest News|
Average draft position
Current as of August 25th. [Full ADP list]Overall: B Marshall (15), D Brees (16), Aaron Rodgers (17), J Jones (18), G Bernard (19)
Position: P Manning (7-QB1), D Brees (16-QB2), Aaron Rodgers (17 - QB3), M Stafford (35-QB4), A Luck (42-QB5)
Click here for a comparison of these players.
Rodgers proved last season that he was fully recovered from his injury when he threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns to lead his team into the playoffs. With the summer to recover even further, Rodgers returns to post the numbers that we’ve all come to expect from him. The newly minted running game takes the pressure off of Rodgers to make every play, and he’s free to do what he does best: find the open man and get him the ball. If 4000 yards and 40 TD passes is a reasonable expectation, could a return to the 4600 passing yards and 45 TD passes of 2011 be out of the question?
The inexperience at WR finally catches up with Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers this season. We have all come to expect them to just churn out young, talented wideouts but that was always with a solid veteran presence like Donald Driver and Greg Jennings to pave the way. While Jordy Nelson is a legitimate stud, Randall Cobb only has one top 20 fantasy finish, and he finished that season with less than 1100 yards from scrimmage. The gap between WR2 and WR3 is much larger than it’s ever been and Rodgers may struggle if one of his two stars goes down. Eddie Lacy also showed he can carry the load, and that may limit the upside of the passing game in general. A healthy Rodgers still posts QB1 numbers, but expecting him to be back in the top two might lead to serious disappointment.
It’s Aaron Rodgers. Of course he’s going to do well. The Packers struggled without him and nearly missed the playoffs. But he came back strong and won a tough road game against Chicago to lead his team to the playoffs. With a full off season to recover, Rodgers should be 100% by the time the season begins. A strong running game and some inexperience at WR might limit his upside, but Rodgers has always proven his favorite target is the open man. He always seems to find a way, and that shouldn’t be any different this season. He may not make it back to the top two from a fantasy prospective, but a top five finish should well within his reach.
Footballguys ArticlesRoundtable #2
Maurile Tremblay - September 17
Kings for a Day: Week 10
Phil Alexander - November 7
Kings for a Day: Week 11
Phil Alexander - November 14
Kings for a Day: Week 14
Phil Alexander - December 5
Kings for a Day: Week 7
Phil Alexander - October 17
What if Randall Cobb Is Lost for the Year?
Scott Bischoff - August 16
Eddie Lacy: Why History Will Repeat Itself For All The Wrong Reasons
Justin Bonnema - August 1
The Fade: Week 08
Justin Bonnema - October 24
The Fade: Week 10
Justin Bonnema - November 7
The Fade: Week 11
Justin Bonnema - November 15
Articles from around the webFantasy value of 2014 draft picks
Christopher Harris - May 11
Post-Draft Dynasty Ranks - QB
Mike Clay - May 20
Post-Draft Dynasty Ranks - RB
Mike Clay - May 21
Post-Draft Dynasty Ranks - WR
Mike Clay - May 23
Fantasy football backfield situations by team
Michael Fabiano - May 27
Early Draftmaster Strategy & Observations from MFL10s
Scott Pagel - June 6
QBs in Focus: Drop-back Depth
Steve Palazzolo - June 7
Is Jarrett Boykin A Worthwhile Fantasy Football Target?
Leo Howell - June 17
NFC Team-By-Team OTA Notes
Adam Levitan - June 20
Who Are the Most Consistent Fantasy Football Quarterbacks?
John Paulsen - June 24
|1||at Seattle Seahawks|
|2||New York Jets|
|3||at Detroit Lions|
|4||at Chicago Bears|
|6||at Miami Dolphins|
|8||at New Orleans Saints|
|12||at Minnesota Vikings|
|13||New England Patriots|
|15||at Buffalo Bills|
|16||at Tampa Bay Buccaneers|
|20||at Seattle Seahawks|
2013 Game Summaries
Week 1 - For the most part, Aaron Rodgers looked as good as he ever has. The one blemish on his game was an interception late in the first half when he had tight end Jermichael Finley bump-set a ball to San Francisco rookie safety Eric Reid. It wasn't really Rodgers' fault and aside from that, he played very well. The fascinating part of Rodgers' game was how he and the coaching staff tried to counteract the combination of a shaky offensive line and an intense pass rush. First, there were a lot of quick pass plays,short slants, quick outs and screens. That's something the Packers did a lot of last season and it served them well, so it tracks they will continue to do it. The second thing was that Rodgers seemed to do a lot of rollouts and bootlegs. Now, in and of itself this isn't a shock as one strength of Rodgers' game is his scrambling. However, these seemed to be designed bootlegs rather than freelanced ones necessitated by a breakdown on the offensive line. It worked too, as the Packers were able to limit the Niners to just two sacks and four quarterback hits (19th in the NFL after one week). All in all, Rodgers looked sharp and the team did a good job of protecting him and allowing him time to hit his receivers. That will make for a very dangerous Packers offense.
Week 2 - This was about as perfect a game as Aaron Rodgers has ever had, setting a career high for yards and spreading the ball out effectively between all four of his big weapons—Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Jermichael Finley. The game began with the Packers clearly still concerned about the offensive line’s effectiveness after the San Francisco 49ers had harassed Rodgers in Week 1. Of the 17 passing plays in the first quarter (three of which were sacks and one which was a throw-away), 11 were short throws where Rodgers got the ball into the hands of his receivers and let them do the rest. When you have human highlight reels like Cobb, that’s easy to do. Despite this, the offensive line let Rodgers down early those three times. Often, Rodgers takes criticism for holding the ball too long, resulting in a sack. Those three sacks were the result of a porous offensive line though. Still, the quick passes worked, and Cobb in particular was able to take them for long gains. The second quarter saw Rodgers throw a little longer, finding his receivers beating the coverage as Washington’s defense was splitting their focus, watching for the short slants which killed them the first quarter as well as the receivers going deeper. The results were passes like the 57 yard catch-and-run by James Jones at 9:31 in the second. On the play, the defense rushed just four players, dropping three linebackers into coverage. One of them had to pick up the slot receiver, which caused a safety to come up as well. This left the deep safety to support both the corners, who were on complete opposite sides of the field. Rookie corner David Amerson appears to think the safety is coming over to help and consequently is more worried about what’s in front of him and not James Jones, who is immediately open. Normally, the defense might have left the two remaining linebackers cover the short middle of the field, but getting burned so much in the first quarter clearly made them gun-shy. Washington frequently rushed just four down linemen, which often gave Rodgers plenty of time to find a downfield option and when they blitzed, Rodgers killed them on a short slant. Of course, Rodgers’ accuracy is a large part of why there were so many problems for the defense. He can kill you on a normal pass and then burn you on a superhuman pass like the one he threw for a touchdown to Nelson in the third quarter. On the play, the defense brings five on the pass rush and drops two linebackers into coverage. The left corner gets overloaded by Nelson and tight end Ryan Taylor, who runs a short out while Nelson goes long. The corner opts to step up and cover Taylor, hoping the deep safety can get over and take Nelson. The safety, rookie Bacarri Rambo, gets over in time, but seems to hesitate. Meanwhile Rodgers throws to Nelson’s back shoulder, where only the receiver can get the ball. It’s an insanely tough catch but a very good throw and Nelson comes down with his second touchdown of the day and Rodgers’ last.
Week 3 - In a mistake filled day for both quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers threw two interceptions but was ultimately killed by a mistake on the part of his receiver. Rodgers' accuracy seemed erratic all day. Yes, he found his main targets - Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb - quite frequently but he also seemed to just be a little high, a little wide or a little slow on his delivery. The Cincinnati Bengals did a good job getting past Rodgers' offensive line and pressuring him all day, while also staying on top of the receivers. Last week when Washington was pressuring Rodgers, Green Bay switched to a short passing game which found the seams in the defense and the gaps between the linebackers and safeties. This forced Washington to back off and just rush four, which in turn gave Rodgers a lot more time for his receivers to get open against a poor secondary. None of this worked against the Bengals. Cincinnati's linebackers are much better than Washington's and did a great job hampering the Packers receivers on their short routes and tackling them as soon as the ball got there. Cincinnati also didn't back off sending a full complement of pass rushers which was critical. On the downs where they just sent four, Rodgers often ended up with plenty of time to throw. When they were able to add even one extra rusher, the Bengals often forced Rodgers to speed everything up, which clearly degraded his accuracy. Ironically, Rodgers' first interception came on a play where he faced just four pass rushers and seemed to have plenty of time to throw the ball. On the play, James Jones ran on a slant, with cornerback Terence Newman in coverage. With Newman right on top of him, Jones appeared to turn outside, leaving Newman on the inside. Rodgers either didn't expect him to change the route or didn't see him do it, clearly expecting Jones to continue inside. The resulting interception looked like it was thrown to Newman. The same can be said of his second interception. The target on the pass was Cobb this time, but the throw basically went to cornerback Leon Hall. On the play, Cobb ran down the sideline, with Hall in perfect position to make a play. Now, that rarely stops Rodgers from trying to make a play which he normally does either by leading the receiver and hoping the guy can run underneath it or by throwing for the receivers back shoulder, which makes for a difficult catch but a near impossible stop for the defender. In this case, Rodgers didn't lead his receiver nearly enough and the ball went right to Hall. It was the first time in 41 games that Rodgers had a two interception game and drives home the point that Rodgers was just off far more than he was on during Sunday's game.
Week 5 - Aaron Rodgers had a solid if unspectacular—at least by his standards—day against the Detroit Lions’ underwhelming secondary. He wasn’t required to throw the ball a ton—the Packers ran the ball nearly as much as they threw it—and when he did the majority of the time he was on target at precise. When he did miss, it seemed as though he was throwing a bit too high—even on one early pass towards a pretty wide open Jordy Nelson, he was just a bit too high and long on the throw, though in his defense he was scrambling away from Ndamukong Suh. Rodgers did a good job of hitting his receivers quickly before the defense could react and as always, extended quite a few plays with his feet. On one play in the fourth quarter, Rodgers saw his protection break down while his receivers were well covered. He stepped up through the pressure and then cut outside. Rodgers then turned upfield, reached the first down marker and then wisely slid. If there was a blemish on the game for Rodgers, it’s that he only threw one touchdown, a huge bomb to James Jones. On the play, Jones got tremendous separation on Chris Houston and Rodgers hit Jones in perfect stride. Jones easily ran the rest of the way for a touchdown. The two hooked up for a second touchdown which was called back because Jones stepped out of bounds. It was a perfect pass though, in tight coverage and in the only place it could go to be completed. Rodgers makes those throws so routinely that we just expect them and he did it throughout the game against the Lions.
Week 6 - Rodgers struggled for most of the first three quarters, in part because he was just off, but also because he lost two key receivers—James Jones and Randall Cobb—to injury during that time. Rodgers also felt a lot of pressure during the game, though his line did a good job keeping him clean and limiting QB hits and sacks to three each. The Baltimore Ravens did a fantastic job of covering the receivers as well, even before Cobb went out (Jones went out so early, it’s hard to say what effect he might have had) which limited Rodgers’ ability to get the ball downfield as much as he wanted. He did have a beautiful pair of passes to Jordy Nelson, one for a touchdown. On the scoring play, Rodgers saw Nelson break free of the coverage by cornerback Lardarius Webb and threw a long pass, hitting his receiver in stride. Nelson easily scored on the play as Webb just couldn’t catch up and no safety had come across the top to contain Nelson. Rodgers turned the ball over twice, one on a fumble and one on an intercepted pass to Nelson. On that ball, Rodgers underthrew his receiver quite a bit and the ball hung in the air too long. That allowed Baltimore’s Justin Smith to outmaneuver Nelson and make the catch. Overall, it wasn’t Rodgers’ best game, especially early, but once he got going late, he was able to move the chains and get the team in a position to win.
Week 7 - Right away you might have been worried that Aaron Rodgers would miss James Jones and Randall Cobb because on his very first pass, Rodgers threw a pass to the back shoulder of Jarrett Boykin which the receiver couldn’t reel in. It’s the sort of throw Cobb, Jones and Jordy Nelson make with regularity. He would late start to create the same chemistry he normally has with Boykin, but not before shifting his aim towards tight end Jermichael Finley. Finley started off the game strong, including a powerful run after the catch for a touchdown on the first drive. The play was just a quick out by Finley and Rodgers delivered a perfect ball. After that it was all Finley as he steamrolled and spun his way to a touchdown. Rodgers then started going back to Boykin on short passes, clearly working on getting used to the new receiver and perhaps build his confidence up. Rodgers tends to be a bit off target early and Boykin made some nice catches as the first quarter went on. Overall, Rodgers and the Green Bay passing offense mostly went on short passes and it helped the team get into a smooth rhythm with Rodgers completing five passes in a row at one point late in the first half. They did occasionally stretch the field on a longer throw, such as an overthrown ball to running back Jonathan Franklin with just under two minutes to go in the first half. Rodgers would later complete a 39 yard completion to Boykin in the fourth quarter. On the play, the defender gave Boykin too much cushion,. Rodgers saw it and delivered a nice pass to Boykin, who turned it upfield and gained more yards. Overall, Rodgers played a solid game, especially considering he was without two key pieces and lost Jermicheal Finely early in the fourth quarter. The announcers noted at one point that Rodgers said to them that he had to work hard to avoid pressing to make up for the fact that he was missing weapons. Interestingly, the quarterbacks in similar situations like Eli Manning have been pressing and turning over the ball—something Rodgers has not done often this season.
Week 8 - To say Aaron Rodgers was determined Sunday night is an understatement. “I wasn’t going to let this team beat us,” Rodgers told Jason Wilde of ESPN Wisconsin, “We all have our roles but I wanted to make sure that my role was one I executed really well.” Rodgers did just that, ending up with a quarterback rating of 130.6, completing 24 of his 29 pass attempts and throwing surgical passes to his receivers, placing the ball where only they were going to get it. Rodgers came into the game with a chip on his shoulder and nothing is more dangerous than Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder. Did he have some poor throws? Absolutely, especially early in the game when he was warming up. With new, young receivers like Myles White and Jarrett Boykin suddenly thrust into key positions because of injuries to Randall Cobb and James Jones, that shouldn’t be a surprise. However, despite that Rodgers missed only rarely. Once he got warmed up, he was hard to stop and combined with Jordy Nelson, nearly impossible. Nelson and Rodgers have quietly become one of the most productive QB-WR tandems in the NFL and their psychic chemistry was on full display Sunday night, most notably on their two touchdowns. The first, an 11 yard touchdown, was one which required a completely perfect throw by Rodgers. On the play, Nelson ran a fade route towards the back right portion of the end zone. He was very well covered by Minnesota cornerback Josh Robinson—in fact it was just about perfect. If anything, he might not have turned his head quickly enough but we’re talking milliseconds. Rodgers delivered the ball—sailing right by Robinson’s left ear. Nelson and Robinson were hand-fighting the whole way, but the Packers wide receiver was still ready to catch the pinpoint accurate pass. The second touchdown was also ridiculously accurate. On this score, which was a 76-yard catch and run by Nelson, Rodgers took advantage of a defensive shift by Minnesota which left Vikings linebacker Chad Greenway scrambling to get to Nelson. The Vikings brought cornerback Marcus Sherels on a corner blitz, which forced safety Mistral Raymond to shift over and cover the wide receiver on that side. This left Greenway reading and reacting to what Rodgers was doing and picking Nelson up when he crossed into the linebacker’s zone. Greenway got there, but just a second too late and Rodgers delivered another earhole burning pass to Nelson. The timing on the pass is incredible—the ball zips past Greenway’s head and hits Nelson in stride in such a way as to not slow him down even for a moment. Greenway is going to the wrong way so the moment Nelson makes the catch, the linebacker has no chance and before the Vikings know it, the Packers wide receiver is streaking towards the end zone. Despite missing three key weapons (tight end Jermichael Finley is also out), Rodgers doesn’t miss a beat. With a quarterback like him, it is clear that any wide receiver can be productive and a guy like Nelson can be considered among the best in the NFL.
Week 9 - Cheeseheads across the country didn’t enjoy seeing Aaron Rodgers jogging to the locker room Monday night any more than they enjoyed seeing him on the sidelines in street clothes. Rob Demovsky of ESPN has reported Tuesday that Rodgers has a broken collarbone and, according to a source “it’s going to be a little while” before he returns. A lot of people had speculated that the Thanksgiving game against the Detroit Lions was a likely return date but Demovsky’s source wasn’t sure that was the case. Regardless, Rodgers is out for the foreseeable future.
Week 17 - While the start of the game was pretty rocky for Aaron Rodgers , especially with two early interceptions. Luckily they were not insurmountable mistake, though they were indicative of a somewhat shaky day for Rodgers. He definitely hadn’t been under center for some time. Rodgers’ accuracy was all over the place even before his first pick—an ill-conceived throw into the end zone meant for receiver Jarrett Boykin but picked off by safety Chris Conte. Rodgers was scrambling and should have thrown the ball away, but either didn’t see Conte dragging along with him or thought he could slip the ball past him. He couldn’t and Conte killed the drive with the pick. Rodgers appeared to be settling down again as the second quarter began, but then threw a bit behind and high to Jordy Nelson. The ball went off Nelson’s hands and was caught by Chicago cornerback Tim Jennings. While Rodgers was a bit off on his ball placement, it’s the sort of pass Nelson routinely hauls in. It appeared as if Nelson was caught a bit by surprise, like the ball got there before he expected it, resulting in a late reaction, and the tip. Then came the most bizarre play you will ever see. Late in the second quarter, Rodgers was hit from behind and fumbled the ball forwards. It looked a lot like a deflected pass but the whistle never blew. The ball landed near Jarrett Boykin who, like every other player on both teams, ignored it. That is, until Rodgers and the whole Packers sideline yelled for him to pick it up and run into the end zone, which he did. The play was never whistled dead and was ruled a fumble, recovered for a touchdown. The second half was a much different story though, as the old Rodgers started to make more regular appearances, starting with a 7-yard touchdown strike to Randall Cobb. On the play, Rodgers did a great job looking off the coverage, but Cobb also ran a fantastic route, completely fooling cornerback Isiah Frey. When Cobb stepped as if he was cutting to the outside, Frey completely bit and so when Cobb reversed direction, Frey was lost. On top of that, you can see Rodgers staring at the outside route as well, as if he expects Cobb to head there, then adjusting his throw at the last minute and catching the whole defense off guard. After that, Rodgers began making the throws we are accustomed to seeing—sharper throws, better timing and the occasional “how the heck did he fit that there?” tosses, such as 22-yard throw to Andrew Quarless in the fourth which looked like it went through Conte. He lapsed back into some timing problems with his receivers on the final drive though, as he threw short to Andrew Quarless and behind Nelson. However, the Packers have depended on Rodgers’ arm in big situations and this was no different. On a 4th and eight play, the Bears brought a pass rush of seven men, but couldn’t nail down Rodgers, who scrambled away to his left. For some reason, the Bears secondary sat down at the first down marker, while Randall Cobb continued to run downfield. By the time cornerback Zack Bowman realizes Cobb is streaking down the field wide open, Rodgers has the ball in the air. While Cobb has to slow down to catch it, he’s so far ahead that Bowman barely gets to Cobb as he crosses the goal line for the game-winning touchdown. Rodgers may have been shaky for most of the game, but this is why the Packers wanted him back—neither Matt Flynn nor Scott Tolzien make that throw.
Week 18 - Aaron Rodgers didn’t drop back to throw a pass during the first Packers offensive series and only did so on the second play of the second series—only to be sacked. In fact, between two sacks, multiple run plays and several errant passes, Rodgers didn’t complete a pass until just over three minutes into the second quarter. After that though, Rodgers threw another seven straight completions as he marched the Packers down the field. The drive ended on a 5-yard pass to Jordy Nelson. On the play, Rodgers scrambled to his right, while Nelson ran a pivot route, duping the coverage into thinking he was going in, then pushing off a bit as he cut outside. Rodgers was later picked off on a ‘free play’ when the Niners were called for holding. While the play was, of course, overruled, Rodgers’ pass was very short and a poor throw. Throughout most of the day, Rodgers was throwing short, but accurate, passes. On the few longer passes he attempted, his accuracy was a bit more scattered. He threw a bullet to Nelson for a big first down but then underthrew a deep ball to James Jones in the third quarter. On the play, Rodgers waited just a moment too long and missed the section of Jones’ route which had the receiver wide open. He then underthrew the ball just a bit, though Jones was able to get his hands on the ball and should have caught the ball. Still, as much as Jones should have caught the ball, it was not one of Rodgers’ better pass. The problem with missing on those deep passes was that Rodgers was rarely able to get a chance to throw them. He was constantly under pressure (sacked four times and hit six) and extended many a play with his legs when he was flushed out of the pocket. That limited many of his choices to the shorter routes and dump routes. Overall he had an OK day, but it was certainly a game where he left a few critical plays on the table.