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QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

HT: 6-2, WT: 220, Born: 12-2-1983, College: California, Drafted: Round 1, Pick 24

2008 Projections

Average draft position

Current as of June 28th. [Full ADP list]

Overall: D Mason (105), J Porter (106), Aaron Rodgers (107), J Norwood (108), M Schaub (109)
Position: P Rivers (101-QB14), J Delhomme (102-QB15), Aaron Rodgers (107 - QB16), M Schaub (109-QB17), J Kitna (122-QB18)
Click here for a comparison of these players.

Best Case

The best case for Aaron Rodgers is that the Packers offense continues its roll from last season - the offensive line dominates in both run- and pass-blocking while Ryan Grant continues to churn up yardage keeping defenses honest. Even better would be if Donald Driver discovers the fountain of youth while younger receivers such as Greg Jennings and James Jones continue to mature while Rodgers displays the confidence and ability he showcased in the Cowboys game last season and he puts up good passing numbers. He could sneak into the top-ten if he stays healthy and has the confidence of the team.

Worst Case

It wouldn't be a surprise if the Packers offense disappoints without Brett Favre. It's also certainly possible that Driver begins to show signs of slowing down while Grant fails to match his stellar play from last season, enabling opposing defenses to key on the passing attack. It's also a concern that the offensive line struggles in protection, and it's possible that Aaron Rodgers reverts back to his struggling ways he had exhibited prior to that one special game against the Cowboys last season. If this happens, Rodgers' numbers would be quite pedestrian.

Outlook

When projecting Rodgers numbers this season, the answer likely lies somewhere in between the best and worst case situations. Rodgers does have talent but there are still big question marks in regards to his game and he has giant shoes to step into. If he can stay confident and get his team behind him, there is a shot he'll emerge as a top-ten quarterback. However there is just as much chance that he struggles this season and there are safer players to target in fantasy leagues this season. If he is available in the mid to late rounds, he may be an interesting prospect but do not overspend on him.

Relevant Articles

Why he is undervalued

Sigmund Bloom - All you have to do is watch the film of the Dallas game last year if you're wondering how the Green Bay offense will function with Rodgers at the helm. He has top 5 upside, so Rodgers is a no-brainer as one of the first QB2s off the board, and a steal as the 6th. He's even worth drafting as a starter if you grab a solid QB2 the next round.

Mike Brown - About the only concerns I have with Rodgers are that Green Bay went out and drafted a QB high in the draft, and that Brett Favre won't stop talking about a comeback. But when Rodgers was called upon last season, he played - and played well. He's obviously got the pedigree, having been a first round pick and collegiate stud. He's got the weapons around him. Now all he needs is a fair chance.

David Dodds - Brett Favre finished 8th at QB last season with the same weapons in Green Bay. I am not ready to say Rodgers has Favre talent, but he has been practicing in this system for multiple years. He went 18 for 26 for 201 yards and a TD (and also rushed for 30 yards) in his game against the Cowboys last season showing that he does know the playbook. If he can stay healthy, he should be a lock at surpassing the expectations at QB19.

Marc Faletti - Rodgers is untested, but he's no rookie. With above average NFL tools, outstanding weapons at WR, and a solid run game behind him, Rodgers could produce 25 passing TDs in 2008. Durability has also been a concern, but this is a contract year, so expect him to give his all to show he's the future at QB for Green Bay.

Cecil Lammey - Aaron Rodgers is no Brett Favre -- stop the press! Everyone, including the Packers staff, doesn't know what to fully expect from Rodgers in his first year taking over as starter. He has to stay healthy, but the QB we saw in the Dallas game was no fluke. This offense is built like a Cobra Jet Engine, and Rodgers has the keys to the car. Last season Brett Favre finished #9, and this year you could see Rodgers crack the top 15.

Jeff Pasquino - Brett Favre may be gone, but the Packers' offensive scheme remains in place. Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and TE Donald Lee are a formidable group of targets for Rodgers, who is not lacking in experience. Rodgers showed he could play against the Cowboys in relief of Favre last season, and an improved running game with Ryan Grant (who can also catch passes) give Rodgers a ton of upside.

Aaron Rudnicki - After developing for 3 years on the bench, Rodgers will take over the starting QB job in Green Bay this year and has an excellent opportunity to succeed. The Packers have a strong running game behind Ryan Grant and a very deep group of weapons in the passing game. As long as he is able to stay healthy, Rodgers has a chance to produce like a lower-tier #1 QB this year.

Maurile Tremblay - Former first-round draft picks who did not start in their first or second years in the league have done well more often than not -- the list since 2000 comprises Daunte Culpepper (2000), Chad Pennington (2002), Carson Palmer (2004), J.P. Losman (2005), and Philip Rivers (2006). Likewise, untested quarterbacks replacing proven veterans who had succeeded in the same offense have also done well -- the list since 2000 comprises Daunte Culpepper (2000), Tom Brady (2001), Michael Vick (2002), Marc Bulger (2003), Carson Palmer (2004), and Philip Rivers (2006). Rodgers -- like Culpepper, Palmer, and Rivers before him -- is a non-rookie replacing a quarterback who did well in the same offense.

Jason Wood - Aaron Rodgers is one of the few later round fantasy QBs that could actually finish as a top-10 fantasy passer. While inexperienced, he played extremely well in place of Brett Favre and should be comfortable with the playbook. Given the Packers offensive line and the cadre of receiving options; there is little reason to think Rodgers won't handily outperform his ADP if healthy.

Why he is overvalued

Andy Hicks - How good is Aaron Rodgers after 3 years on the bench waiting for Brett Favre to retire? The drafting of Brian Brohm in this years draft indicates that the Packers aren't a 100% convinced that Rodgers is their long term answer. Even if Rodgers is capable, and that's a big if, expect him to take time adjusting. Let some one else draft a player who is likely to be cut early in most leagues anyway.

2008 Schedule

2007 Game Summaries

Week 13 - Rodgers stepped in for an injured QB Brett Favre in the second quarter and went five for eight for 69 yards the rest of the half. He would get his first NFL touchdown pass late in the half to WR Greg Jennings on an 11 yard pass. He did a good job of moving the Packers down the field to cut the deficit to only ten points at halftime.

Rodgers led Green Bay down the field on there first possession of the second half on a 69 yard touchdown drive. Rogers threw for 55 yards and ran for nine yards on that drive as he looked really good leading the Packers offense and pulled them within three points of the Cowboys. He did a good job of using his legs scrambling for 30 yards. If Green Bay can take anything from this loss, it is that Rogers looks like a capable backup and can come in and make some plays to move the offense.