Week 4 QB projections   •  SD Stats

QB Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

HT: 6-5, WT: 228, Born: 12-8-1981, College: North Carolina State, Drafted: Round 1, Pick 4

2011 Projections

Average draft position

Current as of September 6th. [Full ADP list]

Overall: H Nicks (22), M Forte (23), Philip Rivers (24), V Jackson (25), P Hillis (26)
Position: T Brady (15-QB3), D Brees (19-QB4), Philip Rivers (24 - QB5), T Romo (35-QB6), M Schaub (51-QB7)
Click here for a comparison of these players.

PPR Average draft position

Current as of September 6th. [Full PPR ADP list]

Overall: D Brees (27), M Austin (28), Philip Rivers (29), A Bradshaw (30), D Bowe (31)
Position: T Brady (24-QB3), D Brees (27-QB4), Philip Rivers (29 - QB5), T Romo (44-QB6), M Schaub (58-QB7)
Click here for a comparison of these players.

 Click here to go to the Philip Rivers spotlight, our staff's most detailed analysis.

Best Case

The past three seasons have solidified Philip Rivers as one of the very best quarterbacks in the league, both in real life and in fantasy. He has been a top-five fantasy QB in two of the last three years, and a top-ten QB in three of the last four. Rivers had also led the Chargers to four consecutive division titles before that streak ended with last season's disappointing second-place finish. He has also firmly established himself as the on-field and vocal leader for this team, and it has become apparent these last few years that this team is only going to go as far as their young quarterback will take them. As Rivers goes, so goes the franchise.

Worst Case

The Chargers' running game has struggled the past few years, but the team is hoping that the combination of Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert -- if they can stay healthy -- will reverse that trend. If the offense comes to rely less on Rivers' arm, his fantasy numbers could regress. Moreover, while Vincent Jackson will re-join the Chargers in 2011, Malcom Floyd is probably headed out of town, and the rest of the receiving corps is largely untested. While Rivers can generally make do with pedestrian receivers, he'll need help from the WR2 and WR3 spots to continue to make strides as a fantasy QB.

Outlook

The Chargers expect to have Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates healthy and in the lineup from day one this season. If Patrick Crayton or Vincent Brown can contribute significantly, Rivers should once again be a dependable every-week fantasy starter. He is in the conversation as the best passer in the entire NFL, and is in the prime of his career heading into the 2011 season.

Relevant Articles

Latest News

Chargers | HC expresses confidence in Philip Rivers (Tue Feb 7, 09:12 PM) - San Diego Chargers head coach Norv Turner expressed his confidence in QB Philip Rivers in a recent interview. 'He'll just us back and give us an opportunity,' Turner said. 'We just need to continue to get better around him.'

Our View: Rivers looked more like himself in the second half of the year and he should be a value in fantasy drafts all offseason.
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Chargers | Philip Rivers tosses pair of scores at Pro Bowl (Sun Jan 29, 11:58 PM) - San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers completed 11 of 19 passes for 190 yards, two touchdowns and an interception at the Pro Bowl Sunday, Jan. 29. One of his TD strikes went to Chargers teammate TE Antonio Gates in the second quarter. Rivers also hooked up with Miami Dolphins WR Brandon Marshall on a 29-yard strike in the second quarter.

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2011 Schedule

2011 Game Summaries

Week 1 - Rivers had what we'll call an uneven performance. He threw for over 300 yards, but it took him nearly fifty pass attempts to get there. He threw two touchdowns, but also threw two interceptions (one of which was a terrible decision). But in the end, he did just enough to get his team in position to win and he made the plays in crunch time to ensure they won. After the Charger run game was twice stuffed at the goal line to open their drive, Rivers found a wide open Mike Tolbert in the flat for the easy score. Things would get progressively more difficult from that point, as the Vikings applied regular pressure for just about the entire first half. The Minnesota front was causing all kinds of timing issues, and Rivers had to essentially disregard the receivers and utilize his backs and tight ends almost exclusively. His best pass of the game was also the most unfortunate, as it went for an incompletion. He was looking for a wide open Vincent Jackson down the middle of the field in the end zone, but the ball went about three feet too far. From the replays, it appeared as if Jackson didn't really come out of his break very quickly, which probably disrupted the timing of the play. Had he hustled all the way, it likely would have been a 43 yard touchdown. Rivers nearly found Antonio Gates on a touchdown a bit later, but the big tight end couldn't hang onto the pass in traffic. Late in the first half, he was intercepted on a play where his hand was hit as he threw, yet another case of the pressure getting to him. When the second half started, Rivers was still having protection issues. He then made a bad decision in trying to toss up a floater down the left side to Ryan Mathews. On the play, Mathews was being shadowed by DL Jared Allen. Rivers figured he could sneak the pass in behind Allen, but Allen turned at the last moment and intercepted the ball into his hands almost like he was running a pass route. It was clear that Minnesota was intent on taking away the deep passing game, so Rivers improvised. He looked underneath to his backs and tight ends even more, but found a way to buy himself some time by moving around a bit better in the pocket. On the eventual game-winning score, he did a great job by rolling out to his left, then continuing to roll out to his left, then rolling out some more. As he did so, he drew not one but TWO Viking defenders up towards him. This allowed Tolbert to sneak downfield a bit, where Rivers fired a strike to him between the two defenders. Tolbert did the rest of the work in diving into the end zone for the score, but Rivers' contribution to the game wasn't complete yet. On San Diego's final possession to run out the clock, Rivers used a hard count to draw Minnesota linemen offsides a whopping three times, the last of which converted a first down and clinched the game.

Week 2 - Rivers benefitted greatly by the work of his receivers in this game, or else his stat line wouldn't have looked anywhere close to what it is. Whether it was Malcom Floyd skying in the air for acrobatic catches early on or Vincent Jackson basically having his way with the defensive backs late in the game, the receivers clearly made Rivers in this game. He made several uncharacteristic mistakes, including two interceptions with the team driving deep into New England territory. The first interception was made by Vince Wilfork, who tipped it up in the air to himself before taking off. Rivers said it was just a great play by the defender and a throw he'd make again, which fans maybe don't want to hear since Wilfork was standing directly between Rivers and his intended target Mike Tolbert. His second interception came as a result of pressure in his face. He had to step back as he heaved a pass toward the sideline to TE Antonio Gates and he got very little on the throw. Rivers settled down a great deal in the fourth quarter and just went back to what works well -- that is, throwing it non-stop to WR Vincent Jackson. They had a terrific rapport, converting third down after third down. Finally, he found him in the end zone on a floater to the back line of the end zone. Rivers showed nice patience in letting the play develop before flipping it over the top of the defense. Later in the fourth quarter, he again found Jackson on what was a phenomenal one-handed grab by Jackson amidst a sea of defenders. On San Diego's final offensive play of the game, Rivers was hit from behind and fumbled when he held onto the ball for too long while waiting for the play to develop.

Week 3 - Some will point to the lockout or injuries or just early season kinks being worked out, but whatever the cause, something isn't clicking yet with Rivers and his receivers. For the second consecutive game, he threw two interceptions very early on, and put his team in very poor positions on several occasions. His first turnover came on a jump ball that he hoisted up seemingly without regard for what happened. Rolling out to his right, he flipped one up for grabs and unsurprisingly, it was intercepted. Granted, there was a missed pass interference penalty on Kansas City that should have given the ball back to the Chargers, but that still doesn't entirely excuse the decision to make the throw in the first place. He made a similar play later in the first half when he fired a deep bomb down the seam to WR Malcom Floyd. The ball was overthrown, and the Kansas City defender made a nice play to juggle it briefly before holding onto it for the pick. Rivers has never thrown three interceptions in a game before, but he should have easily had a third in the third quarter when he fired a pass over the middle that LB Derrick Johnson was all over. Fortunately for the Chargers, Johnson couldn't haul it in for the turnover, but it was still a pretty poor decision. Late in the game, Rivers had one deflected at the line and batted straight up in the air, but that too fell for an incompletion. He looked a bit skittish at times, perhaps due to the pressure he was continuously facing as well as some big hits he suffered. He actually left the field briefly and went to the locker room to get worked on during a Kansas City possession in the third quarter. And in addition to the physical mistakes, he made what can only be classified as a bad mental error late in the game. With the clock still running and Kansas City out of timeouts, the Chargers faced a fourth down and inches. Rather than waiting until most or all of the play clock expired, Rivers hiked the ball on fourth down with 23 seconds still left on the play clock. They were stopped, and Kansas City immediately took over possession needing just a field goal to tie. And they were essentially gifted 22 extra seconds by San Diego, who didn't run the clock all the way down. It was just a bizarre decision all the way around, and one has to assume it was a brain lock and not a strategic one to hike the ball so early in the clock. It just simply wasn't a typical Rivers day, and didn't make the kind of plays and decisions we've grown accustomed to.