All QB projections   •  Current QB rankings   •   All SD projections   •  SD team report   •  SD Stats

QB Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

HT: 6-5, WT: 228, Born: 12-8-1981, College: North Carolina State, Drafted: Round 1, Pick 4

2009 Projections

Average draft position

Current as of September 7th. [Full ADP list]

Overall: T Owens (32), D Bowe (33), Philip Rivers (34), W Welker (35), P Thomas (36)
Position: P Manning (19-QB3), A Rodgers (29-QB4), Philip Rivers (34 - QB5), K Warner (37-QB6), T Romo (40-QB7)
Click here for a comparison of these players.

PPR Average draft position

Current as of September 7th. [Full PPR ADP list]

Overall: T Owens (37), R Bush (38), Philip Rivers (39), K Warner (40), C Ochocinco (41)
Position: P Manning (24-QB3), A Rodgers (31-QB4), Philip Rivers (39 - QB5), K Warner (40-QB6), T Romo (46-QB7)
Click here for a comparison of these players.

 Click here to go to the Philip Rivers spotlight, our staff's most detailed analysis.

Best Case

Philip Rivers exceeded everyone's expectations last year when he led the league in passer rating and touchdown passes and was the No. 3 fantasy QB. Rivers broke the 4,000-yard barrier for the first time last season, and threw 34 touchdowns compared to just 11 interceptions. Most impressively, he had an elite season while finishing just No. 11 in pass attempts (without any significant rushing statistics). If the Chargers continue the transition from running team to passing team and Rivers gets over 500 attempts in 2009, he could improve on his 2008 fantasy stats. Vincent Jackson has established himself as a solid NFL WR1, and Antonio Gates should be healthy (after struggling through toe and hip injuries in 2008.

Worst Case

Rivers had his best year as a pro in 2008, but it could have been an aberration rather than a sign of things to come. He lacks the arm strength of many of the other uppertier QBs. While Vincent Jackson appears to be coming into his own, Chris Chambers disappeared over the second half of 2008 and the other WRs (Malcom Floyd and Buster Davis) are unproven. Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson have been nagged by injuries and may never be the players they were earlier in their careers. If the offense around him regresses, Rivers could regress to his 2007 season level.

Outlook

Rivers is an underdog to repeat his Top 5 performance of a year ago, but is a favorite to finish in the Top 10. The Chargers still have a high-powered offense that should score a lot of points, and QBs on high-scoring offenses are nearly always good fantasy bets. In particular, the Chargers should continue to enjoy success in the red zone with their bevy of large receivers (Gates, Jackson, and Floyd are like a basketball team's front court), so Rivers should comfortably toss 25+ TDs again. Expect a fantasy finish somewhere in the 4-9 range.

Relevant Articles

Why he is undervalued

Mike Brown - A year ago, Rivers was the third-rated fantasy quarterback (behind only Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in terms of total points). Yet now he's being drafted sixth, and trails guys like Kurt Warner? So let's see if I've got this straight. Warner, who is approaching forty years old, wasn't as good as Rivers a year ago. But now that Warner is a year older and Rivers is a year better, NOW Warner will be better? This is no knock on Warner; just a general shock that Rivers isn't being lumped in with the league's elite -- still.

Latest News

Chargers | Rivers throws two TD passes Week 10 (Sun Nov 15, 07:46 PM) - The Associated Press reports San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers was 20-for-25 for 231 yards with two touchdown passes Week 10 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Our View: The Eagles seemed to gameplan to take Vincent Jackson away from Rivers. Behind good pass protection, Rivers found Antonio Gates and Legadu Naanee open in space often.
link to story   

Chargers | Rivers throws three TD passes Week 9 (Sun Nov 8, 08:21 PM) - The Associated Press reports San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers was 24-for-36 for 205 yards with three touchdown passes and two interceptions Week 9 against the New York Giants.

Our View: Rivers calmly led the offense down the field after the defense held the Giants to a field goal in the fourth quarter, capping the drive with a TD pass to Vincent Jackson with less than thirty seconds left.
link to story   

2009 Schedule

2008 Game Summaries

Week 1 - Rivers looked as good as he ever has, quite a testament to him since he's not even eight months removed from suffering a major knee injury in last year's postseason. The most surprising part of his performance was his awareness of the pocket around him. He always managed to avoid would-be tacklers from all angles and displayed an elusiveness rarely seen from him -- even before the injury. His passes hit receivers in stride all game long, even with Rivers on the run. Nowhere was that more evident than on the Antonio Gates touchdown. Rivers rolled left, fired a perfect pass across his body between two defenders, and hit Gates in the hands along the sideline. Last year, accuracy was an issue with Rivers, as many passes sailed high or behind his intended target, which slowed down their ability to gain yardage after the catch. That wasn't an issue today, and he was by and large the key reason the Chargers were even able to get back into this game.

Week 2 - Rivers truly appears to be coming into his own in his third full season as the team's starter. It helped that he was given ample time to throw, but even when he wasn't given a ton of time he was able to improvise well and elude the oncoming rush. He was sacked just once and intercepted once, though the interception was controversial. Rivers appeared to have connected with Chris Chambers for a reception, but as Chambers was tackled by CB Champ Bailey, the ball came loose and Bailey recovered. The ruling on the field was questionable at best, as it appeared that Chambers' arm was already down prior to the ball coming out. Unfortunately for Rivers and the Chargers, the replay equipment had malfunctioned and the officials were unable to view a replay for the challenge. The call stood, and it was ruled an interception since it was determined that Chambers had never maintained possession of the football.

Later in the first quarter, Rivers overthrew a wide open Chris Chambers in the end zone for what would have been an easy score. Despite these setbacks and the early game woes of the San Diego offense, Rivers was able to regroup the team and lead them on several first half scoring drives to get the team back in the game. The San Diego offense didn't miss a beat when LaDainian Tomlinson went out of the lineup; they simply took to the air more. That is perhaps the biggest difference of this Charger team. If Tomlinson is ineffective or injured, they can still move the football because the passing game has been so outstanding. His long touchdown pass to Chambers later in the first half was a thing of beauty, as the ball was perfectly placed just beyond CB Champ Bailey. Rivers' stats were certainly helped along by his teammates in the second half. FB Mike Tolbert took a simple circle pass and turned it upfield for a 67 yard gain. RB Darren Sproles grabbed a screen pass and took off for a 66 yard score. And Chambers added a second touchdown displaying remarkable body control in reaching up and over the defender to snatch the ball out of his grasp for the score.

Week 3 - Rivers first pass of the game was intercepted and returned for a touchdown, but that was the only miscue for what turned out to be a great first half as he threw for three touchdowns in the first half. He hit FB Mike Tolbert on a one yard touchdown pass out in the flat in the first quarter for his first touchdown pass. His second touchdown came when he found a wide open WR Chris Chambers over the middle of the field for a 27 yard play. Rivers third touchdown came on short fade to TE Antonio Gates for a six yard touchdown. He completed ten for 15 for 102 yards in the first half. Rivers looked poised and in control throughout the game as he hit his receivers with precision and made good decisions. More importantly was that he got excellent protection as the Jets struggled to get a pass rush. Rivers almost had a fourth touchdown to WR Vincent Jackson in the second half on a 60 yard completion, but Jackson was tackled on the one yard line.

Week 4 - Rivers faced relentless pressure almost from the moment he stepped onto the field. On just his second series of the game, he tried handing off to LaDainian Tomlinson in the shadow of his own end zone. The Oakland defensive front has pushed through so quickly that the handoff was never made, the ball was fumbled, and Rivers had no choice but to cover it up in the end zone and take a safety. The ensuing possessions resulted in three punts, two interceptions, and a couple of field goal attempts. Never once in the first three quarters did the Chargers put a serious drive together and come close to scoring a touchdown through the air. Despite all the pressure he faced, Rivers didn't flinch. He stood in on the blitz, and took several nasty shots. One hit was particularly scary, as he had his left leg rolled up on by an Oakland defender. After limping around a bit, he remained in the game. Later, he was sacked by Terdell Sands and was seen rotating his arm to try and loosen his shoulder. Despite his willingness to stand in the pocket, that doesn't necessarily mean he was playing well. The pressure clearly affected his timing and rhythm, as he made two uncharacteristically bad throws that both resulted in interceptions. One was a floater off his back leg that lacked any kind of velocity, and the other was a forced pass into double coverage that was actually picked off by DeAngelo Hall that was thrown well beyond the intended receiver.

Week 5 - Rivers afternoon began very inauspiciously, as he was shaken up on his second pass of the game. He wasn't hit at a bad angle or anything, but he was knocked backwards and stumbled awkwardly to maintain his footing. Immediately after the play and for several plays afterwards, he was seen grimacing and clearly in some pain. While he didn't let on that he was hurt the rest of the afternoon, it's possible that the leg was bothering him. It didn't help that he was under constant pressure for the entire afternoon, either. In the early going, the Chargers attacked with a lot of short passes and screens. In fact, the downfield threats (Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Gates) had just three receptions combined on six first half targets. The Chargers opened up the offense more in the second half, with some success at times. Jackson hauled in a long 42 yard bomb on a jump ball for the longest play of the afternoon. And Chambers snagged a fade pass on the end zone sideline for a touchdown. But the good plays were few and far between. And on two occasions, the Chargers missed out on big plays by a slim margin. First, Chris Chambers caught a third down pass and was tackled about a foot short of the end zone (San Diego failed to score on fourth down, too). Later, Vincent Jackson got past the defense on a deep route but was overthrown on the play by Rivers on what would've been a 75 yard touchdown.

Week 6 - Right from the outset, Rivers looked very calm and poised in directing the offense. Some of that may have had something to do with the fact that no New England defender got within five yards of him all night long. His very first pass of the game was a 48 yard bomb to Vincent Jackson, and that really seemed to suck the life out of the Patriots defense. They were very concerned with the deep ball, which freed up Rivers to remain in the pocket for as long as he needed. He put just about every pass right where it needed to be, and his accuracy on the deep passes was outstanding. He hit Malcolm Floyd for a long touchdown, hit Jackson for another bomb in the second half, and connected with Jackson and Antonio Gates on short scores. He nearly had an earlier score to Gates, but the tight end dropped what would've been an easy seven yard touchdown. Facing a defense as stout as New England's has been, one cannot ask Rivers to play any better than he did.

Week 7 - Rivers seemed to be well on his way to a very nice game until very late. He tossed a pair of touchdowns, went over 200 yards, and completed over 75% of his passes. That said, he also fumbled once when he wasn't even touched (the ball slipped out of his hands and was lost), fumbled again by a defender who was bearing down right in front of him, and intercepted in the end zone on a poor decision to force a pass to TE Antonio Gates. Strangely, outside of these three plays Rivers actually played exceptionally well. But those three instances proved to be so costly that they are the primary reasons San Diego lost this game. His touchdown pass to Floyd was a perfectly-timed throw off a slant and the touchdown to Jackson was a bullet over the middle through good coverage. But the interception to Gates, with San Diego trailing by six late in the fourth quarter, was as awful a pass as he has made all year long. After turning the ball over just four times in his first six games, he turned it over three times in this game -- including his first interception in thirteen quarters.

Week 8 - Statistically, Rivers matched his former teammate and mentor Drew Brees play for play. Rivers threw for just two fewer yards on one fewer pass than Brees, and matched his three touchdown passes. The touchdown passes were all very good throws, and he was given a lot of time by his linemen. He used that time to made good decisions on just about all of his passes, and appeared poised to tie the game up on a drive late in the fourth quarter. Realistically, Rivers needed to make just a few more plays. It was the one interception that proved too costly for the Chargers. Rivers led a comeback that nearly overcame the shoddy play of the defense. San Diego trailed 37-20 in the fourth quarter before two scoring drives cut it to 37-30. Rivers, facing a third and long situation, forced a poor pass into tight coverage to WR Chris Chambers, and had it intercepted by LB Jonathan Vilma off a deflection. He had one last-gasp Hail Mary pass attempt with one second left in the game, but it was batted down in the end zone by the defense.

Rivers' afternoon contained a few near-misses as well. The big comeback may not have been necessary had Vincent Jackson been able to come down with a long touchdown reception early in the second half. Rivers laid a perfect pass right in Jackson's hands that should have gone for a 72 yard touchdown, but Jackson allowed the ball to slip right through his grasp. The Chargers punted on the possession. Rivers later lost a seven yard touchdown pass to TE Brandon Manumaleuna when the play was negated due to a penalty. However, it should also be noted that if it weren't for the holding penalty Rivers wouldn't have had enough time to find Manumaleuna.

Week 10 - In this game, when Rivers was good he was very good. And when he was bad he was VERY bad. His long completion to Malcolm Floyd for 31 yards was a very nice pass. As was his touchdown strike to TE Antonio Gates. The touchdown to Floyd was a nice team effort where the blitz was perfectly picked up; Rivers stepped forward in the pocket, and floated a pass that only Floyd could get to. But it was hardly all good for Rivers. He misfired a pass to a wide open LaDainian Tomlinson in the flat early in the second quarter, suggesting his timing or accuracy was a bit off. Later that same quarter, he zoned in on WR Vincent Jackson for so long that the safety easily read the play and jumped the route at the goal line for an interception. Rivers would add a second interception in the third quarter when he tried heaving a pass down the sideline to Gates despite intense pressure in his face. He stepped on a lineman's foot, regained his footing, and was hit as he threw. The end result was a duck that was easily intercepted by John McGraw. He also missed a wide open Vincent Jackson in the back corner of the end zone on a fourth quarter pass play, though they did go on to score later in the possession. In all, it was a very up and down performance for a guy who has been one of the top scorers at his position this season and going up against a very porous defense.

Week 11 - From the outset, Rivers never really looked all that comfortable. The Steelers didn't give him a lot of time in the pocket (though they only sacked him twice) and the weather conditions prevented him from looking too far downfield anyway. His first interception wasn't really his fault, as Vincent Jackson was unable to hang onto the pass. It deflected in the air, and S Troy Polamalu made a remarkable play to control the ball and intercept it. The second turnover was clearly Rivers' fault. He tried forcing a weak pass to Jackson in the front corner of the end zone, but failed to see LB James Harrison sliding across the coverage. He easily picked it off, only the second red zone interception of Rivers' career. His other costly mistake was a second quarter safety. Announcers Phil Simms and Jim Nantz praised Harrison for his quickness in getting to the ball, but the reality is that Rivers held the ball for far too long in the end zone. They put a clock on him, and he had it for over three seconds before Harrison knocked it free. Fortunately for San Diego, LT Ryan McNeill fell on the football and recovered it for a safety rather than a Pittsburgh touchdown. Rivers' third glaring mistake of the afternoon came during the drive that would eventually lead to the go-ahead field goal. On a second down pass late in the fourth quarter, he tried forcing the ball to Jackson once again. This time, it wasn't intercepted but CB Ike Taylor had his hands all over it for a near-pick. Following an incomplete fade pass to TE Antonio Gates on third down, the Chargers kicked a field goal that gave them a brief lead.

Week 12 - Rivers gave the Chargers a 10--3 lead in the second quarter when he threw a perfect deep ball to WR Vincent Jackson that went for a 39 yard touchdown pass. Down ten in the fourth quarter, the San Diego quarterback led the offense on a 12 play, 70 yard drive that he capped with a one yard touchdown toss to RB Jacob Hester. On the drive, Rivers was seven for seven for 47 yards and also had a nine yard rush that went for a first down. The San Diego signal caller followed that up with a field goal tying series in when he completed five of seven passes for 63 yards as he moved the offense down to the Indianapolis 29 yard line. Rivers' two scoring throws were his 22nd and 23rd touchdowns of the year.

Week 13 - Rivers played poorly, both realistically and statistically. The numbers sort of speak for themselves, but this passing offense was really lost at times. Rivers was under a lot of pressure at times, evidenced by the three sacks. And there were a number of other occasions that he narrowly avoided being brought down. He took a very inopportune sack on what could have been the team's game-winning drive. Facing a second and ten from his own 19 with 2:41 left, he took a nine yard loss to set up an impossible third and 19 situation. Following an incomplete pass, the Chargers punted on fourth down and wouldn't see the ball again.

The numbers bear out how bad he was (5.0 YPA, 0 touchdowns) but he failed to make any plays on a day the team really needed him to do so. RB LaDainian Tomlinson was stifled right from the outset, but Rivers was unable to take advantage. At one point from the end of the first quarter to the middle of the third quarter, Rivers didn't even complete a pass. His longer passes wobbled and were off-target. The only time he came close to a touchdown pass was when Vincent Jackson skied to make a nice play of a ball along the back line of the end zone late in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately for both players, Jackson was pushed out and unable to get his feet down and the play was simply an incomplete pass.

Week 14 - Rivers had a very unique stat line, completing under 50% of his passes but still managing to throw three touchdowns and go over 200 yards through the air. All on just 22 pass attempts. The primary reason for this is because he hooked up on two bombs with WR Vincent Jackson, one for 46 yards and one for 59. The first pass represented the first time in seven games that Rivers has completed a pass for more than forty yards. The connection came on a third and two pass, and was targeted right at Oakland's (and arguably the league's) top corner man, Nnamdi Asomugha. Later, Rivers found Jackson perfectly in stride for the long touchdown as well. Along the way, he mixed in a couple of shorter touchdowns to undersized RB Darren Sproles. Each of those touchdowns was simply a terrific individual effort by Sproles, who took off like a bullet as soon as he had his hands on the ball. On the second score, Rivers did a nice job of floating the ball to him just over the oncoming pass rush, and there was mostly daylight in front of Sproles for the easy score.

Rivers nearly added another touchdown late in the first half when he tried to find Malcolm Floyd with a pass along the end zone sideline. The ball sailed just a bit, however, and Floyd was unable to remain inbounds and control the pass.

Week 15 - For Rivers, the first three quarters went one way and the fourth quarter went entirely different. On his second pass attempt of the game, Rivers limped off the field after having his leg rolled up on by teammate LaDainian Tomlinson. He checked out okay on the sideline, but his performance was miserable. He turned the ball over three times, none of which were defensible. Rivers fumbled twice, both times coming when he failed to protect the ball from oncoming rushers. His arm was hit and the football was jostled loose on each occasion. Then he tossed a very poor interception to Patrick Surtain, though he did help to keep Surtain out of the end zone by chasing him down and cutting off the angle at the goal line.

Despite all the early bad plays, the Chargers found themselves somewhat within striking distance, down 21-10 with just five minutes left to play. Rivers quickly marched the Chargers 89 yards downfield on 15 plays and took just over three and a half minutes to do it. Rivers was 11-14 for 92 yards on the drive (he was able to throw for 92 yards on an 89 yard drive because they had lost yardage on a fumble). The drive culminated with a touchdown pass to WR Malcolm Floyd, a great effort on a diving catch in the end zone. They were unable to convert the two point try, so they tried an onside kick. The Chargers recovered, and Rivers wasted no time in moving them downfield, hooking up with WR Vincent Jackson for a 42 yard gain on the first play of the possession. Following a dropped pass by Tomlinson, Rivers ran one up the middle for nine yards. On the next play, he floated a pass into the end zone perfectly for Jackson, a play that went for the game-winning score. After the touchdown, Rivers sprinted around the field and was absolutely pumped when he arrived at the sideline. In the fourth quarter alone, Rivers had thrown for 190 yards and two touchdowns.

Week 16 - Rivers played one of the finest games of his career, setting a career high with four touchdown passes and making every play his team needed him to make. His first touchdown went to TE Brandon Manumaleuna on a screen where Manumaleuna was the second option. He did most of the work after the catch to get into the end zone. Rivers threw another touchdown on a screen pass to RB Darren Sproles and Sproles too did the majority of the damage. But on each of the touchdown passes to TE Antonio Gates, Rivers made perfect passes through coverage for the score. On the first one, he was rolling to his left and threaded a perfect pass just beyond the reach of CB Ronde Barber to Gates on the back line of the end zone. It was an absolutely perfect pass that needed to be put in a very tight space, and it was. On the next Gates score, Rivers tucked the ball away as if he was going to run it, only to loft one perfectly behind CB Philip Buchanon to Gates for six points. Time and time again, Rivers came up with huge plays to keep his team in the game and he was in complete control the entire time.

Week 17 - Rivers had a very good game. He tore apart the Denver defense and kept them off balance. He was extremely confident in the pocket and every throw he made looked crisp. Rivers ended up with only 205 yards passing, but considering it was on 20 passing attempts it proved to be a very solid performance.

Week 18 - Rivers didn't play exceptionally well or anything, but his final statistics are somewhat misleading. He completed just 20 of 36 passes, but at least eight of those passes were throwaways where the play wasn't developing properly -- at least six of them came on screens that failed to set up and Rivers simply threw the ball into the ground. That's not to say he was putting the ball wherever he want, mind you. The issues started early in the game when he missed a wide open Brandon Manumaleuna down the sideline on an overthrown ball. It continued well into halftime, and a lot of it had to do with the pressure on him from the Indianapolis defense. Every time he looked up to throw the ball downfield, he pulled it back either because a pass rusher was getting close or because the coverage was tight. In fact, he was having trouble getting the ball to anyone except TE Antonio Gates, who was the only Charger with a reception until about the five minute mark of the second quarter. The second half was more of the same, as Rivers overthrew WR Chris Chambers in the end zone for what should have been a touchdown. If the ball was more to the corner of the field, it likely would have been. As it was, it was an easy interception for S Antoine Bethea playing centerfield on the play. Later, he was nearly intercepted on the sideline by throwing an ill-advised pass to WR Vincent Jackson on a rollout.

Yet despite all of the problems Rivers faced, he still made several key plays that had a positive impact on the outcome. He showed excellent strength on one play in particular late in the third quarter. Facing a constant pass rush, Rivers had his arm hit by a defensive lineman but he never flinched. Most quarterbacks likely would have fumbled in that situation. Later in the quarter, he used amazing precision to thread a bullet pass to WR Legedu Naanee on a slant. And in the fourth quarter, with the team facing a third down and 15, he scrambled and dove at the first down marker for a 14 yard gain. On fourth and one, he ran a sneak up the middle to pick up the first down. While that possession eventually led to the interception, he didn't let it rattle him. When the Chargers got the ball back down by three and a chance to tie, Rivers completed two passes to TE Antonio Gates to set up the game-tying field goal. And in the overtime session, he was 2-4 for 21 yards to help put the team into scoring range.

Week 19 - Rivers opened the game as well as one possibly can against the best defense in football. On San Diego's opening drive, he completed his first two passes for a total of 33 yards. And on his third pass, he tossed a perfect strike down the seam for a 41 yard touchdown bomb to WR Vincent Jackson. Rivers was hit as he threw, but still put the ball in an absolutely perfect spot. On his next deep ball attempt, he again tried to hook up with Jackson, this time down the sideline. It was initially ruled a 43 yard reception, but after a challenge by the Steelers, replays confirmed that the ball had hit the ground and it was ruled incomplete.

In the second half, Rivers and the Chargers were hit by some bad luck. Following a Pittsburgh touchdown drive, Darren Sproles had a 63 yard kick return to the Pittsburgh 23 yard line that seemed to put the Chargers in business. Unfortunately for them, Rivers' first pass from scrimmage was deflected into the air and intercepted by the Steelers. After forcing a punt on that possession, S Eric Weddle allowed the ball to bounce off his helmet and it was recovered by the Steelers. Yet despite driving, the Steelers again came up with zero points. Despite not scoring any points, those two turnovers hurt Rivers directly because they combined to enable the Steelers an extra 6:34 of possession that they otherwise wouldn't have had. The Chargers offense was on the field for all of one play in that third quarter.

In the final frame, they tried making up for lost time to an extent. First, Rivers capped a quick scoring drive with a four yard strike to WR Legedu Naanee from four yards out. He also found the aforementioned Sproles down the seam for a relatively easy and meaningless 62 yard touchdown pass. Yet despite the fourth quarter scores, all was not well as the Steelers were bringing loads of pressure. A lot of times, Rivers was forced into either bad passes or bad decisions because of the relentless pass rush and he didn't look terribly sharp a lot of the time.