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PK Jeff Reed, Pittsburgh Steelers
HT: 5-11, WT: 232, Born: 4-9-1979, College: North Carolina, Drafted: ---
2008 Projections
Best Case
Reed hit a career best 92.0% (23 of 25) on field goals in 2007. One of the two misses was a long shot, both literally and figuratively, as he came up short on a 65 yard attempt. Last year was the third solid outing that Reed has had over the last four years. In 2004 he connected on 28 of 33 field goals (84.8%) and was good on all 40 PATs, totaling 124 points. The Steelers subsequently rewarded him with a new five-year contract. He followed up with another strong effort in 2005. He connected on 24 of 29 field goals (82.8%), and was good on all 45 PATs, totaling 117 points. Although Reed missed a PAT in each of his first two years in the NFL, he has been perfect on 170 attempts over the last four years. The team heads into their second post-Cowher year. If they take another step forward and Reed picks up where he left off, he could push for a top ten finish this year.
Worst Case
The rosy picture above has some flaws behind it. Although the Steelers ranked 16th in kicker scoring last year, they ranked only 25th in attempted kicking points. The 25 field goal attempts were the fewest of any full year that he played. The difference was Reed's very high completion percentage. The odds are against him in duplicating that feat this year. Since 1990, thirty teams have hit over 90% on field goals in a year. Twenty-nine of those dropped in accuracy the following year by an average of 13.2%. In 2006, Reed hit only 20 of 27 (74.1%) field goals. The percentage was the second lowest of his career. Of the seven field goals that he missed that year, four were from less than 40 yards. Up until 2006, Reed appeared to be the only one that could kick in Heinz Field. Where Kris Brown, Todd Peterson, and numerous visitors had failed, Reed had succeeded. He actually had a better field goal percentage at home than on the road in 2003 and 2004. Over the last two years however, eight of his nine missed field goals have been at home.
Outlook
After two consecutive top ten finishes in kicker scoring, third in 2004 and seventh in 2005, the Steelers dropped to 22nd in 2006. In 2007 during Mike Tomlin's first year at the helm, they climbed up to 16th with 113 points, largely due to Reed's impressive year on field goals. In addition to his field goal percentage, Reed also had another career high last year with ten touchbacks on kickoffs. His 61.4 yard average on kickoffs was right around his career average. For 2008, it is unrealistic to expect Reed to duplicate last year's accuracy. It would be more realistic to expect an increase in scoring opportunities from the offense in their second year under the offensive system. It wouldn't be surprising for those two factors to offset each and actual kicker scoring to remain about the same.
