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QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals

HT: 6-5, WT: 230, Born: 12-27-1979, College: Southern California, Drafted: Round 1, Pick 1

2008 Projections

Average draft position

Current as of June 28th. [Full ADP list]

Overall: W Welker (38), E Graham (39), Carson Palmer (40), A Boldin (41), D McFadden (42)
Position: T Romo (21-QB3), D Brees (31-QB4), Carson Palmer (40 - QB5), B Roethlisberger (47-QB6), D Anderson (52-QB7)
Click here for a comparison of these players.

 Click here to go to the Carson Palmer faceoff, our staff's look at the pros and cons.

Best Case

Carson Palmer's upside potential was demonstrated in 2005 when he threw 34 touchdown passes and finished as the No. 1 fantasy QB. For a similar performance in 2008, Palmer will need Chad Johnson to report to the team and play hard without creating distractions. He'll also need one of the rookies, Jerome Simpson or Andre Caldwell, to be productive right away while helping to replace Chris Henry. Palmer has the arm strength and accuracy to finish at the top of the league in passing yards and touchdowns if his surrounding offensive talent performs at a high level.

Worst Case

Palmer could possibly be without Chad Johnson this year, forcing a mostly untested receiver like Antonio Chatman into the starting lineup. That could leave T.J. Houshmandzadeh double-teamed, and with subpar receivers at the starting RB and TE positions, Palmer could have trouble finding any open receivers. If the running game struggles the way it did in 2007, that could further frustrate the passing game by failing to keep defenses honest. Palmer was the No. 9 fantasy QB last year with Chad Johnson in the lineup. Without Johnson, Palmer could easily slip outside the top-15.

Outlook

A lot depends on what happens with Chad Johnson. While he's most likely play this season, there is always the possibility that Johnson reports to the team but becomes a distraction that hinders the offense's focus. Houshmandzadeh can handle the WR1 role, but that would leave the Bengals with an unproven supporting cast. Nonetheless, the Bengals will rely on Palmer's arm to keep them in games, so he should still amass some good statistics.

Relevant Articles

Why he is overvalued

Marc Faletti - The Bengals are disintegrating before our eyes, especially at the WR position. Palmer's a good QB who's been able to rely on excellent weapons, but nobody's sure who will even be lining up for him in 2008. He coughed up 20 picks last year, and his team's only offers of assistance are some rookie wideouts. Palmer looks like a player who'll hover around QB10, not QB05.

Chris Smith - I love Palmer as a quarterback but with Chris Henry off of the team, WR Chad Johnson unhappy and wishing for a trade it appears that Palmer is too risky to be taken 43rd overall in a fantasy draft. Let somebody else take that risk.

Maurile Tremblay - I like Palmer's skills as a QB, but he's not running the same offense he did in 2005 and 2006 when he had top five fantasy seasons. Palmer was the #9 fantasy QB last season (#11 in points per game, minimum 12 games), and must put up with the loss of Chris Henry this season as well as the distraction that is Ocho Cinco. For Palmer and the Bengals, things are trending downward, not upward.

Jason Wood - Carson Palmer is obviously one of the best passers in the NFL, but I wouldn't take the risk on him this season at current ADP. Chad Johnson is unhappy, Chris Henry got cut, and the offensive line struggled last season. His turnovers increased last year as he tried to win games single handedly. I expect he'll finish closer to QB8-QB10 than the top 5.

David Yudkin - Palmer ranked 9th last year when the Bengals receiving corps was in a better place then today. Chris Henry has been released for off-the-field incidents and Chad Johnson once insisted he's played his last down with Cincinnati (although he has backed off that claim recently). If Johnson sits out even a few games or gets traded, Palmer's chances of ranking in the Top 5 will be minimal. The Bengals added several rookie wideouts, but don't expect them to produce like Ocho Cinco.

2008 Schedule

2007 Game Summaries

Week 1 - Considering the defense he was facing and the injuries to his offensive line (three starters lost in the first half), Palmer's performance was fine. He hurried his throws at times, especially in the first half, but he was sacked only once, had no turnovers, and threw two TD passes (including the game winner), so he definitely took care of business. Palmer is not lightning quick, but he has a knack for evading the rush, which was quite evident in this game. The well-designed TD bomb to Chad Johnson was a thing of beauty and is something we're likely to see often this season. Palmer's favorite target was T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who received mostly short passes.

Week 2 - Palmer displayed his usual efficiency completing 66% of his passes and throwing for 401 yards. He was able to mix his passes among nine different receivers but his first look was to either Houshmandzadeh or Johnson. Palmer was given plenty of time to throw by his offensive line and was only sacked one time in the game. While he did throw two interceptions, the second interception was an amazing catch by Browns cornerback Leigh Bodden during the last minute of the game.

Week 3 - Palmer played like an all-star in the first half, and struggled like a rookie in the second. He at first shredded the Seahawks defense, getting the ball to his star wideouts, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh seemingly at will. The trio was unstoppable. Then, in the second half, when the Seahawks keyed on them, Palmer was unable to overcome it by spreading the ball around (He tried, but not very successfully). Instead, he forced the ball to his go-to guys, which resulted in a costly interception (in which he was rolling out and clearly should have thrown it away instead) and a lower ratio of attempts to catches. Still, a bad day for Palmer is better that a lot of other QB's good days. He ended the day with 342 yards passing, but only one TD, an early strike to Houshmandzadeh, before Seattle knew what had hit them.

Week 4 - Palmer got off to a very slow start going three for six for 13 yards in the first quarter of the game. The Patriots defense did a good job of disrupting the rhythm of the Bengals' passing game, as Palmer struggled hitting his receivers early. Palmer quickly recovered in the second quarter, after a New England turnover, and he led the offense 35 yards for a score. He hit WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh on a one yard touchdown pass. He threw an interception late in the second half in what looked like a miscommunication between himself and WR Chad Johnson. He and Johnson had a heated exchanged as they exited the field at the end of the first half. He finished the half nine for 13 for 85, one touchdown, and one interception.

Palmer and the offense struggled getting in the end zone in the second half against the Patriots defense. Palmer was little off his game and failed to make plays in the second half when they needed too. New England did give up total of 153 yards and one touchdown to the combination of Johnson and Houshmandzadeh, but did not give up any big plays. Palmer added another 149 passing yards in the second half but, he and the offense had no touchdowns. He added a second interception late in the game.

Week 6 - Palmer struggled, as shown by the 26 completions out of 43 attempts effort he produced. He rarely completed consecutive passes, and had a tough time getting in rhythm particularly after the first drive. On two separate occasions, it looked like Palmer was going to get going again and a penalty and a questionable call stopped any rhythm he had.

Week 7 - Palmer threw an interception in the second quarter that was a great play by Hank Poteat wrestling the ball away from T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Palmer did not throw the ball much because Kenny Watson was running over the Jets, which allowed him good play action fakes to throw down the field. He managed the game well and this was a classic case of taking what the defense gave him.

Week 8 - Palmer only had eight incompletions on the day and most of those were on deep passes. The problem was that the running game could not consistently move the chains, and the Pittsburgh ate up the clock on offense in the second half.

Week 9 - Palmer was on target all day, but his receivers dropped a couple passes and he got a couple of balls tipped at the line of scrimmage. One of those balls was tipped up and almost intercepted, but it fell through the grips of the Bills' defender. His interception came with under 20 seconds left in the game.

Week 10 - Palmer enjoyed the return of WR Chris Henry and threw for 271 yards. He had no interceptions, but no touchdowns either. He did lose two fumbles. All in all it was an efficient game for Palmer on his way to the team's third win.

Week 11 - Palmer had a good game fantasy wise with 329 yards on 37 for 52, but the four interceptions obviously took away from an otherwise outstanding day. He hit T. J. Houshmandzadeh and Chris Henry on touchdown passes and completed passes to seven different receivers. The most damaging of his interceptions was the first play in the second half when Karlos Dansby stepped in front of a pass intended for Houshmandzadeh. That interception extended the Cardinals lead to 28-13 and forced the Bengals to all but abandon their running game.

Week 12 - Carson Palmer had an amazing day passing. He rarely faced pressure from the Titans pass rush and he showed good pocket presence by moving around in the pocket to buy enough time to find the open receivers. Palmer was accurate on all types of passes, from the out patterns that gained first downs to the deep throws that stretched the defense. He showed good touch on his three touchdown passes, throwing the ball to the spot where his receiver was going to be. He clearly benefited from having all of his primary weapons available to spread the defense.

Week 13 - Palmer got off to a good start on the Bengals' initial drive as he completed six of his seven attempts for 57 yards, helping lead the offense to their only touchdown of the game. The Cincinnati quarterback would go on to complete only 12 more passes throughout the remainder of the contest as he finished with a season low 183 yards passing. The offense seemed to be in third and long situations throughout the night, which contributed towards Palmer's struggle in moving the chains. His pass catchers didn't help him out either as a number of balls that hit receivers in the hands fell incomplete.

Week 14 - Palmer finished the day with two interceptions and no touchdowns. Outside of one long pass to Chad Johnson, he had a hard time hooking up with his receivers. He had better luck throwing to Houshmandzadeh, but most were for short gains.

Week 15 - Palmer and offense started the game out slow but, got it going in the second quarter as they started moving the ball. He tried hitting WR Chris Henry deep a couple of times in the first quarter but, they unable to connect. Midway through the second quarter Palmer hit Henry in full stride on beautifully thrown ball over the middle of the field. He finished the first half nine for 14 for 145 yards. The inability of the Bengals defense to stop the San Francisco offense in the second half hurt Palmer and the rest of the offense as they simply were not able to get on the field much in the half. Palmer tried to lead the Bengals back late in the fourth quarter but, they were not able to make any big plays when the game was on the line. He almost had a touchdown late in the game as he went to WR Chad Johnson down the side line in the end zone on a fourth down with two minutes left, but Johnson was unable to bring the ball down on what was a tough catch. He had 106 yards passing in the second half but, the offense faltered on there few opportunities in the red zone.

Week 16 - Palmer had a very quiet day, throwing for only 115 yards, mainly due to the success of the Cincinnati running game. The Bengals were content to hand the ball to Kenny Watson for most of the afternoon. Palmer did throw two interceptions, the first being a wobbly pass to T.J. Houshmandzadeh that was picked by Cleveland DB Leigh Bodden. The second pass saw Houshmandzadeh fall down and again Leigh Bodden happened to be in the right place at the right time and snagged the ball. Palmer did have some trouble with throws sailing over his receivers heads, but by and large the Bengals simply committed to running the ball for the entire game.

Week 17 - Palmer started off well completing four of six passes for 37 yards on the first drive of the game, and squeezed a tough two yard pass to Chad Johnson for the Bengals first touchdown of the game. Palmer hit Johnson again on for 70 yard touchdown midway through the second quarter. He had WR Chris Henry wide open deep down the field on the next drive but, he overthrew him for what would have been another big play. He would continue his big half by leading Cincinnati down the field 63 yards with a minute and two seconds left in the first half. He would hit Antonio Chatman on a four yard pass for Palmers third touchdown of the half. Palmer finished the half 12 of 17 for 211. Palmer hooked up with Johnson again on a 43 yard reception down the right side line. He throws one of the better deep balls on the NFL, and Palmer hit Johnson on a perfectly thrown ball. He finished the game with 316 yards passing.