Week 4 QB projections   •  DEN Stats

QB Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos

HT: 6-4, WT: 220, Born: 11-14-1982, College: Purdue, Drafted: Round 4

2011 Projections

Average draft position

Current as of September 6th. [Full ADP list]

Overall: Z Miller (130), G Olsen (131), Kyle Orton (132), A Hernandez (133),
Position: M Cassel (123-QB18), M Sanchez (125-QB19), Kyle Orton (132 - QB20), D McNabb (137-QB21), C McCoy (150-QB22)
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PPR Average draft position

Current as of September 6th. [Full PPR ADP list]

Overall: G Olsen (129), A Hernandez (130), Kyle Orton (131), R Williams (132), M Williams (133)
Position: J Cutler (111-QB17), M Cassel (127-QB18), Kyle Orton (131 - QB19), M Sanchez (134-QB20), D McNabb (149-QB21)
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Best Case

Orton could get traded to a team like the Cardinals where he would be the clear cut starter. However, if he stays in Denver he'll have to beat out second-year QB Tim Tebow for the starting job. Orton is a savvy veteran who knows how to run an offense true to form. He could win the job over Tebow and could perform consistently with an improved offensive line, ground game, and defense. If he's the starter in Denver we see him performing as a mid-range QB2 in fantasy leagues.

Worst Case

Kyle Orton is not clutch. His lack of playmaking ability when the pressure's on could open the door for Tim Tebow to win the starting job in Denver. Even if he wins the starting job he's not going to set the fantasy world on fire. Orton was on pace to throw for over 5,000-yards last season under Josh McDaniels but won't play up to that potential this year. John Fox has taken over in Denver and will implement a strong ground game. The improved defense will also keep the team close so they don't have to go into 'catch up' mode.

Outlook

As of this writing Orton's still on the Broncos roster. We have a feeling he could be dealt to a team like the Cardinals or the Redskins. If moved Orton would be the clear cut starter in line to throw for about 3,000-yards and 19-21 TDs. However, if he stays in Denver we feel he'll get beat for the starting job by Tim Tebow.

Why he is undervalued

Jeff Tefertiller - Yes, Josh McDaniels has taken his prolific passing game to the St. Louis Rams, but Orton has been productive at every stop and will be serviceable once again. The Broncos have plenty of weapons for Orton to target in the passing game. The highly debated quarterback duel between Orton and Tim Tebow is now a thing of the past. The job is Orton's to lose.

Why he is a good deep sleeper pick

Steve Holloway - Orton may eventually rise up draft boards, but he is currently being taken as QB #20 and 145 overall, based primarily on the idea that Tebow will be playing soon an possibly taking over at QB for the Broncos this season. There is a risk of that happening, but as long as Orton plays you will be rewarded. If he is replaced and not traded, then you lose your benefit. Last season Orton finished as QB #16, even while missing three 3 games. His points per game were excellent, but he gave way to Tebow in the final three games. If the Broncos open strong and they have Oakland at home, Cincinatti at home and then Tennessee on the road, Orton may keep starting. If they begin losing and Orton plays well, maybe you could trade him as when the lose Tebow should get an earlier call.

Jeff Pasquino - Kyle Orton had a big, big year last year with Denver, right up until they pulled out the rug from underneath him and installed Tim Tebow for the last few games. Orton lit it up with Brandon Lloyd in 2010, but some are worried that new head coach John Fox will go more with a ground game than ask Orton to throw deep. Orton fans can rest easy as Denver's defense is not much better this year than last, meaning that the Broncos cannot hope to win many games if they do not outscore the opposition. Knowshon Moreno is not a strong lead back for Denver either, meaning Orton will have lots of chances for 250+ yards and 2-3 touchdown games this year.

Chris Smith - Due to the fact it appeared the Broncos were going to use Tim Tebow as the starter in 2011, Orton has been nowhere on the draft boards through early summer. However he is now firmly entrenched as the Broncos starting quarterback and will be a serviceable starting quarterback. The only concern is the Broncos begin the season slowly and with an eye to the future, they allow Tebow to learn on the field.

Mark Wimer - Orton is winning the QB contest in Denver hands down - Tim Tebow may end up third on the depth chart behind Brady Quinn. The new front office/coaching staff have nothing invested in Josh McDaniel's pick of Tebow, and Orton is outplaying him in training camp. Orton has been very effective with the receivers on the roster in Denver, and he is criminally undervalued as of mid-August.

Jason Wood - Orton was thought to be headed out of Denver because the team was ready to hand the reins to Tim Tebow .Yet, those plans were shelved after a trade to Miami fell apart, and then Orton started blowing Tebow out of water each and every day in Broncos training camp. So long as there's not another change of plans, Orton deserves consideration as a solid fantasy QB2. The Broncos defense will be improved, but not enough to keep them from having to win some shoot outs. And Orton is certainly capable of throwing 3,800-4,000 yards and 20-25 TDs over a 16-game span. He's not a guy I see being a breakout stud ever, but he's much better than some of the QBs going ahead of him in drafts.

Latest News

Bears | Could show interest in three QBs this offseason (Mon Feb 6, 05:34 PM) - The Chicago Bears could show interest in Kansas City Chiefs impending free-agent QB Kyle Orton, Oakland Raiders impending free-agent QB Jason Campbell and free-agent QB David Garrard (Jaguars) this offseason.

Our View: Not surprising news here. We don't think Orton would be a serious candidate because he feels that he can still be an effective starter in the league. Any free agent QB Chicago adds has to know they won't start unless Jay Cutler is injured.
link to story   

Redskins | Expected to show interest in three QBs (Sun Feb 5, 01:29 PM) - The Washington Redskins are expected to show interest in Green Bay Packers impending free-agent QB Matt Flynn, Kansas City Chiefs impending free-agent QB Kyle Orton and Indianapolis Colts QB Peyton Manning if he is released this offseason.

Our View: The Redskins will get their QB of the future this offseason either through the draft or free agency. Manning is likely at the top of their list if he's made available.
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Chiefs | Matt Cassel not assured of starting QB job (Fri Feb 3, 08:58 AM) - Kansas City Chiefs head coach Romeo Crennel and general manager Scott Pioli emphasized Thursday, Feb. 2, the need to bring in competition for QB Matt Cassel at starting quarterback. 'What happens in free agency remains to be seen,' Crennel said. 'I know competition makes everybody better, and we'll just have to see what kind of competition we're going to have at the quarterback position.' Pioli added the team could re-sign impending free-agent QB Kyle Orton.

Our View: Cassel hasn't earned the right to be the uncontested starter for the Chiefs. We could see them re-signing Orton and have a competition in training camp for the #1 job.
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Redskins | Could have interest in Kyle Orton (Mon Jan 30, 03:50 PM) - The Washington Redskins could show interest in Kansas City Chiefs impending free-agent QB Kyle Orton this offseason.

Our View: Orton wouldn't really be an upgrade from Rex Grossman, so we're not sure they would be interested in him as more than a backup.
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2011 Schedule

2011 Game Summaries

Week 1 - Orton had a nightmarish night, but he wasn't helped by the conservative playcalling. Orton was off most of the night, and he never seemed to be in rhythm for more than a few plays in a row. He had an interception on a miscommunication with Brandon Lloyd, and he also lost a fumble that pretty much ended the Broncos chances in a close game in the fourth quarter with them driving. He couldn't convert in the red zone until the last five minutes of the game, when he finally did seem to be getting into the flow of the game, but the Raiders running game kept him from having a chance to tie or win the game late.

Week 2 - Kyle Orton, with his receiving corps decimated, did a decent job in leading the offense against Cincinnati. However, Orton was mostly erratic with his throws, often missing targets or throwing ill-advised passes, notably one to the outside that should have been intercepted by the LB in coverage. When given time, Orton hit a couple of nice passes, including a comeback route to Matt Willis where the ball was perfectly delivered on a rope right into the receiver's hands. With the Broncos receiving corps decimated, the team relied on the ground game. As such, Orton operated off play action at times, but was unable to hit any big plays until later in the game. Orton tossed a touchdown pass to WR Eric Decker on a quick slant route. Orton put the ball out in front of Decker so he could simply run on to it and take it the rest of the way for a score. It was one of Orton's more impressive throws of the game. Orton looked to Decker for his second touchdown pass, throwing a well-executed back shoulder fade to the sideline. Two defensive backs got tangled up and both went for Decker, but both missed and Decker sprinted untouched into the end zone. The vibe around Mile High was not good for Orton, who was stripped of the football by DE Michael Johnson after holding the ball too long. This play was followed by boos from certain pockets of Bronco fans. Orton's performance overall, considering his lack of receivers, was commendable, but his overall play will be increasingly scrutinised in the coming weeks.

Week 3 - Kyle Orton had an uneven performance against the Titans in week three. On the one hand he was successful in engineering drives that kept the chains moving. On the other hand, he threw two untimely interceptions that stopped momentum at key moments. His second interception came on the final offensive play of the game for the Broncos. On the play, the ball was batted at the line of scrimmage and fell in to the waiting arms of Will Witherspoon. Orton's biggest problem against Tennessee was an inability to pass the ball downfield. While he had a 32 yard completion to tight end Daniel Fells, only two of his 23 other completions went for more then an 15 yards. Otherwise, Orton spent much of the day throwing screen passes, slants, and out routes to his receivers in hopes that they could create yardage after the catch. His best pass of the day came on a 5 yard pass to Matt Willis that resulted in the first points of the game. On the play, Willis lined up on the right side and ran a quick out to the front corner of the endzone. Orton took the snap, quickly pivoted, and riffled the ball to Willis before the covering linebacker could get outside to cover him.