WR Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers

HT: 6-2, WT: 217, Born: 5-31-1985, College: Kansas State, Drafted: Round 2

2013 Projections

Average draft position

Current as of May 21st. [Full ADP list]

Overall: M Ryan (45), W Welker (46), Jordy Nelson (47), R Wayne (48), C Kaepernick (49)
Position: M Colston (44-WR15), W Welker (46-WR16), Jordy Nelson (47 - WR17), R Wayne (48-WR18), H Nicks (52-WR19)
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PPR Average draft position

Current as of May 21st. [Full PPR ADP list]

Overall: P Manning (44), J Witten (45), Jordy Nelson (46), M Colston (47), R Wayne (48)
Position: W Welker (38-WR14), M Crabtree (40-WR15), Jordy Nelson (46 - WR16), M Colston (47-WR17), R Wayne (48-WR18)
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Best Case

In 2011, Nelson finished as the #2 fantasy WR with over 1250 yards receiving and 15 TDS. As the #1 receiver on a team that threw for 4300 yards and almost 40 TDS last season, Nelson could easily return to those lofty numbers again this season. There are simply too many options on the team to double cover Nelson on every play, and if the Green Bay running game can get back on track. he's going to threaten Calvin Johnson as the #1 fantasy receiver this season.

Worst Case

Improved running game, plenty of other receiving options and consistently facing the #1 defender could take a toll on Nelson's stats this season. The Packers throw too much for Nelson to completely fall off the fantasy radar, but he may not post the numbers people are looking for from him. If Nelson can't make the adjustment to the #1 role, he'll probably post WR2 fantasy numbers.

Outlook

With Greg Jennings hurt for a big part of last season, Jordy Nelson had a chance to shine as Green Bay's #1 WR. He posted some impressive performances, including posting more than 240 yards and 4 TDS in two games against Houston and St. Louis in week six and seven. He missed a little time at the end of the regular season, but returned to post eight receptions for 97 yards in the playoffs. Jennings has moved on to Minnesota now, and Nelson will the the #1 receiving option this season. If he stays healthy, he could post the best stats of his career.

2013 Schedule

2012 Game Summaries

Week 1 - After a ridiculous 2011 campaign, Nelson got a pretty rude awakening against San Francisco in week 1. Nelson found it impossible to get behind the defense, including a nice play fake from Rodgers on 3rd and 1 where Nelson was unable to get beyond the double coverage. Nelson’s longest play was actually an aborted deep pass attempt, where Rodgers was forced to scramble and seeing his QB in distress, Nelson cut the route off and came back to Rodgers, resulting in a 28-yard catch. Jordy was the 2nd least targeted Packer WR, but again, was more a product of San Fran game plan as compared to Nelson’s shortcomings.

Week 2 - Despite drawing the primary coverage from the Bears, and a couple untimely drops, Jody Nelson still managed to have an Ok game for the Packers. He started out the game by dropping a quick slant pass on 3rd and 2 on the opening drive, but rebounded with a nice 21 yard reception on a deep crossing route on the following series. On Green Bay’s 3rd possession, Rodgers hit Nelson on a perfect pass down the right side of the field. Rodgers dropped the ball between two defenders, but Nelson dropped it for the second time in the quarter. Nelson added three more receptions for medium gains before Rodgers hit him on a crossing route at the end of the third quarter for a nice 15 yard gain. Nelson’s biggest play came near the end of the game, when the Packers were looking to put the Bears away for good. On third and 11 with six minutes to play, Rodgers hit Nelson on a short crossing route. Nelson was in full stride though, and ran to daylight, breaking up field and staying in bounds for a big 26 yard gain. It allowed Green Bay to run another two minutes off the clock, preventing the Bears from mounting any time of last second comeback.

Week 3 - Jordy Nelson struggled all game long to make plays for his team and Rodgers stopped targeting him it looked like as the game progressed. Nelson was almost invisible throughout this game and Rodgers leaned on teammates Finley, Jones and Jennings instead of Nelson. Nelson had trouble shedding his defender in one on one coverage situations and was rarely open when Rodgers targeted him down the field. Nelson hauled in some gains for a first down on short routes underneath but was never a threat to break open the defense with a big play and the immense pass rush on Rodgers hurt all the Packer’s receivers. Nelson seems to struggle in games where he cannot make the big play and defenses have taken away his presence as a deep threat so far this season.

Week 4 - Jordy Nelson had the biggest stat line of the day on the Green Bay side, tallying up 8 receptions, 93 yards and a touchdown. He could have had 2 or 3 touchdown, but a couple key drops and an underthrown Rodgers pass put a halt to that. Regardless, when he displayed his usual solid route running and ran several types of routes, from 'go' to 'out' to 'slant'. By my count, he had about 13 targets, and if Jennings' injury keeps bothering him, Nelson is a legit WR1 on most weeks. Nelson's long of the day was an 18 yard catch, which highlighted his relative consistency for his YPC.

Week 5 - Aaron Rodgers overthrew Nelson on the opening drive and things pretty much degenerated from there. With Greg Jennings out, one assumed Nelson would get the majority of the targets but that didn’t happen. On the overthrow, Nelson was wide open, with a huge lead on cornerback Jerraud Powers and with no way for safety Tom Zbikowski to catch up to him from a bad angle. Rodgers simply overthrew his receiver. When he did get the ball, such as his 19 yard catch in the first quarter, he proved as dangerous as always. On that particular catch, Nelson had a huge cushion even before the snap, as Powers gave Nelson eight yards of space, determined that he wouldn’t burn Powers long again. Nelson took that cushion, and had five yards between him and Powers when Rodgers delivered a strike to where Nelson stood at the Colts’ 40 yard line. Nelson then sidestepped Powers and nearly broke for a longer gain but was pushed out of bounds by safety Antoine Bethea. A few other times Nelson was well covered, but any time he was up against Powers he had the young corner’s number—the Packers just didn’t move him to the right side often enough and Rodgers was looking for Jones way too often. If they are going to get the offense back on track, the Packers need to get Nelson involved again, and should, next week against the Texans.

Week 6 - Jordy Nelson put on a clinic. Jordy Nelson was the beneficiary of two passes on the very first drive, and would not slow down. The second of which was a quick strike off a Houston penalty on the Packers first possession. Jordy Nelson showed signs of being the clear cut WR1. In the second quarter, Jordy caught a beautiful post for a 21-yard touchdown. With more than 6 minutes left in the half, Jordy had already raked 5 balls for 82 yards and 2 scores. Jordy Nelson abused Jonathon Joseph all night. Nelson’s 3rd touchdown came on a 16-play 2nd half drive aided by 2 crucial Texans penalties. Nelson ran a perfect corner route, and caught the toss from Rodgers.

Week 7 - A breakout star in 2011, Nelson had an innocuous start to 2012 before exploding for one hundred and twenty-one yards and three scores in Week Six against the Texans. The Kansas State alum topped that receiving yardage total by one against the Rams, posting another elite performance. Nelson’s one hundred and twenty-two receiving yards came on eight catches, including a fifty-two yard bomb from quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Nelson exhibited tremendous willpower in snagging the ball in traffic as he sprinted down the sideline in double coverage. The fifth-year receiver was often matched up with rookie cornerback Janoris Jenkins, whom Nelson found easy to shake off and get open. His touchdown catch came on a three-yard fade route that Rodgers threw up and allowed Nelson to snatch out of the air.


Week 9 - Surprisingly active on Sunday, looking like he was over a hamstring injury that kept him out the prior week, Nelson limped off on the second drive of the game after getting his ankle caught under him trying to make a catch. It’s unfortunate, but the silver lining is that he has two weeks to get fully healthy again. Since the Packers didn’t need him to make it past the Cardinals, it could be questioned why he was active in the first place, but for now, we can just hope that he has a mild ankle sprain and the bye week will give him a chance to get back to full strength.

Week 11 - Aaron Rodgers’ go-to receiver was living up to billing in this game. Nelson’s first target was a sideline pass on the opening drive of the game. Nelson was open, but he took his eyes off the ball and it skipped off his chest and he dropped it. Nelson got back on track though at the end of the first quarter on 3rd and 6. Rodgers threw the ball a bit behind him, but Nelson was able to come up with the 15 yard catch and a big first down. On the same drive, on 3rd and 3, Nelson ran a quick curl route, but spun away from the defenders, broke two tackles and sprinted up field for a big 19 yard gain to set up the TD pass to JerMichael Finley. In the 4th, Rodgers hit Nelson on a short curl where he was able to get to the sideline and tiptoe along it for an 11 yard gain. Two plays later, Nelson drew a defensive holding call on an inside-out route, giving the Packers another 1st down. While he finished the game with just 45 yards receiving, Nelson drew a lot of attention from the defense, and Rodgers was able to get other people involved in the offense because of it.

Week 12 - Jordy Nelson had a very explosive play early in this game and looked impressive on his touchdown catch to start but the rest of the game took a complete twist after. Nelson was able to blow right by his DB in man to man coverage, get big separation on a streak route and easily catch a perfectly thrown pass from QB Rodgers. Nelson showed a high level of straight line speed and concentration with the catch but this was easily his biggest opportunity against the Giants. The rest of the game was marred by poor pass protection, penalties, turnovers and checkdown passes due to good coverage by NYG. The Giants used a 2 man deep safety shell to prevent big plays after this catch and the Packers were unable to function as an offense with the new scheme. Nelson also had a small catch on a comeback route against soft zone coverage in garbage time however. Nelson still looked as fast as ever on Sunday but the Packers offense crumbed up front with the line. This never gave Rodgers and the passing game a chance to succeed.

Week 13 - Nelson felt something twinge in his hamstring pregame, but it only became an issue when he was hit in the area in the first quarter. He left the game with just one catch and while the injury is not said to be serious, he may not play in the next game.

Week 17 - Nelson couldn't make a very difficult reception in the endzone after an excellent pass from Aaron Rodgers. As the Packers ran their hurry up offense, Nelson caught a slant that turned into a bubble screen for 15 yards and a first down. Nelson had a very quiet game until he beat the Vikings' secondary on a deep seam route for a huge gain. Nelson was knocked out of bounds just before he could reach the pylon however. Nelson didn't see another target until the end of the next drive, when Rodgers threw him the ball at the goalline. Nelson didn't catch the ball, but drew the pass interference penalty. Rodgers went straight back to him on the next play, when he threw a low backshoulder throw that Nelson adjusted well to to catch.

Week 18 - Nelson was the fourth receiver on the depth chart, as he dealt with lingering injury issues. Therefore, his first reception came within two minutes of the halftime break when he caught a deep in for 20 yards and first down. Two plays later Nelson worked back to Rodgers as he worked outside of the pocket to catch the ball at the sideline five yards out from the endzone. On third and five, with just minutes left in the game, Nelson caught a quick out against single coverage for a first down.

Week 19 - Nelson drew a pass interference call against Chris Culliver on a backshoulder throw down the right sideline. Nelson caught a nine yard reception on the sidelines as Aaron Rodgers hit him scrambling into the flat. Rodgers went straight back to him on a quick out for a similar nine yard gain. Nelson caught a short comeback route on third and four for seven yards. Nelson caught a deep out on third and three with the game already decided late in the fourth quarter. Nelson then caught a deep in for 15 yards.