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PK Nate Kaeding, San Diego Chargers
HT: 6-0, WT: 187, Born: 3-26-1982, College: Iowa, Drafted: Round 3
2008 Projections
Best Case
The Chargers used a third round pick in 2004 to grab that year's top kicking prospect. Kaeding was touted for both his accuracy and his range. He was also a team leader at Iowa, serving for two years as captain, which is not a role typically filled by a kicker. Kaeding had a solid rookie season, going 20 of 25 on field goals (80.0%), and 54 of 55 on extra points. He followed up with a good second year. His accuracy improved to 87.5% (21 of 24). He was consistent regardless of venue, averaging 6.9 points per game at home and 7.1 points on the road. He improved again in his third season to 89.7% (26 of 29) last year. He has missed only one FG from under 40 yards over the last two years. He has been accurate from long range during his three years, going 4 of 6 from 50+ yards.
Worst Case
The Chargers drafted Kurt Smith from Virginia in the sixth round in 2005 to hopefully take over kickoff duties, an area which is Kaeding's primary weakness. Kaeding had worked on that aspect of his game during the off-season, held off Smith for that role, and ended 2006 with career highs of 65.2 yards and 11 touchbacks.
Outlook
Heading into 2004, Kaeding's fantasy prospects were considered by most to be very low. He was a promising talent, but he was still a rookie on one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Chargers proceeded to win 12 games, win the AFC West, and rank 10th in kicker scoring. That was a big jump from their 28th and 26th place rankings the two years prior. Their surprise year ended on a sour note, when Kaeding missed a 40 yard field goal in overtime in their playoff loss to the Jets. Although Kaeding's accuracy improved in his second year, the Chargers provided him with fewer opportunities and they ended up 12th in kicker scoring. Last year was his most productive, as the team provided him with both the most field goal attempts and the most PAT attempts of his three years in the league. His 26 FGs and 58 PATs added up to the second most kicking points in the NFL last year. The offensive players are back this year, but there were significant changes in the coaching staff. History indicates that the first year after coaching changes does not usually produce the kind of points that the Chargers put on the board last year. The few exceptions were instances where the offensive coordinator was promoted to head coach and the offensive system remained intact. As tempting as Kaeding looks in fantasy drafts, odds are against a repeat top five performance.
