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PK Sebastian Janikowski, Oakland Raiders
HT: 6-2, WT: 250, Born: 3-3-1978, College: Florida State, Drafted: Round 1, Pick 17
2008 Projections
Best Case
The expectations for Janikowski were extremely high when he entered the NFL. He was the most recent kicker to be drafted in the first round, the only two-time winner of the Lou Groza Award, and he regularly put his kickoffs through the endzone in college. Janikowski has been able to utilize his leg strength on occasion, with at least one 50+ yard field goal in seven of his eight years, including a career high six last year. Although he doesn't put them through the endzone in the NFL like he did in college, he's still very good on kickoffs. Last year he averaged 65.1 yards and had 22 touchbacks (tying his career best). Unfortunately most of those are either ancient history and/or things that don't score fantasy points. The Raiders offense and Janikowski have been near the bottom of the rankings for three straight years. That leaves plenty of room for improvement; however both the opportunities and the accuracy would need to increase for Janikowski to be a viable kicker in most fantasy formats.
Worst Case
Janikowski's yearly production is very inconsistent. He was an average field goal kicker his first three years (68.8%, 82.1%, and 78.8%). He finally started to live up to the hype, with 88.0% and 89.3% on field goals in 2003 and 2004. In 2005 he plummeted to 66.7% (20 of 30), and for the first time he didn't make any 50+ yarders, going zero for three. Janikowski numbers were back up a little bit in 2006, although 18 of 25 (72.0%) on field goals is still not very good. Three of the misses were from under 40 yards. Last year the struggles continued. He hit only 23 of 32 (71.9%) field goals, although many of the misses were from long range. He missed five from 50+ yards, including a 64 yard attempt (which would have broken the NFL record) that hit the upright. One earlier problem was a pattern of annual misdemeanor activities from 1998 through 2003. Janikowski wound up being acquitted in all instances were charges were filed. On the bright side, he hasn't had a run in with the law in over four years. If the Raiders continue to provide limited scoring opportunities and Janikowski continues to miss, he'll remain near the bottom of the rankings.
Outlook
The Raider's yearly production is very inconsistent. The Raiders had a string of four consecutive top ten kicker scoring years, culminating in their 2002 Super Bowl appearance year. Janikowski ranked fourth that year. In 2003, many things went wrong for the Raiders, and their kicker scoring plummeted to 22nd. Norv Turner took over as head coach in 2004, and they rebounded modestly to 13th. Janikowski's struggles in 2005 year added up to only a 29th place ranking in kicker scoring for the Raiders. Oakland's offensive struggles (which is an understatement) in 2006 meant very few scoring opportunities for Janikowski, and they finished last in the NFL in kicker scoring with only 70 points. Last year saw some improvement, and could have been better had the offense been able to get into closer field goal range. The 97 kicking points ranked 26th. Heading into 2008, the returning coaching staff and young team will try to take another step forward.
