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RB Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HT: 5-9, WT: 215, Born: 1-15-1980, College: Florida, Drafted: ---

2008 Projections

Average draft position

Current as of June 28th. [Full ADP list]

Overall: B Marshall (37), W Welker (38), Earnest Graham (39), C Palmer (40), A Boldin (41)
Position: M Turner (35-RB19), W Parker (36-RB20), Earnest Graham (39 - RB21), D McFadden (42-RB22), E James (43-RB23)
Click here for a comparison of these players.

Best Case

Graham proved that he could carry the Buccaneers into the playoffs as their feature-back in 2007. If he is given the lion's share of work again, he should significantly improve on last year's production. He didn't start getting fed the ball on a consistent basis until Week 6 last year - this season, he should have that role from the opening kick-off. Assuming he can play a full slate of 16 games, Graham could sneak into the top-12 fantasy RBs, making him a marginal RB1 and a super-solid RB2 for fantasy owners in most league formats.

Worst Case

Graham has posted just one solid season in his four-year NFL career. It's possible that he was a flash-in-the-pan phenomenon, and if Cadillac Williams or Warrick Dunn wows the coaching staff in training camp, Graham could lose his grip on the top job in Tampa. Prior to last season, Graham had a career high of 28 carries during the 2005 season. A mere 28 carries would be devastating to his fantasy owners.

Outlook

William's recovery from his patellar tendon issue is far from certain and Warrick Dunn is in the twilight of his career, so Graham appears well positioned to maintain his grip on the starting job in Tampa Bay. If he garners a full 16-game slate of appearances, Graham is a good bet to be a solid RB2 in most fantasy leagues this year.

Relevant Articles

Why he is undervalued

Andy Hicks - Earnest Graham came out of nowhere to grab the starting job once Cadillac Williams was lost for the year and possibly his career. Warrick Dunn was signed, but at 33 years of age is no threat to Graham's playing time. Graham finished 2007 ranked 11th, despite barely playing for 4 games. Now he can be had as a RB 2 or 3? Snap him up in the 3rd or 4th round if you can.

Jeff Tefertiller - Graham finished as the 11th ranked back in 2007 after taking over for the injured Cadillac Williams. Williams is still injured and could be on injured reserve the entire season. Aging Warrick Dunn is the only other Buccaneer back that should get carries. In the last half of the season, Graham scored a touchdown in all but one game.

Maurile Tremblay - Graham finished as the #11 fantasy RB last year while getting about 54% of the RB touches for Tampa Bay. This season I expect him to get closer to 60% of the RB touches, and to maintain his position as a top 15 fantasy RB. As the 21st running back off the board, on average, Graham presents excellent value.

Mark Wimer - Graham is set to be a featured back in Tampa, and has proven a capable receiver as well as ball carrier. He should challenge for top-10 status at his position - he's a bargain at RB21. I believe he'll be in camp when things become mandatory and strive to earn really big money next year by repeating last year's strong performance (assuming he doesn't get a new contract this year).

Why he is overvalued

Sigmund Bloom - Graham needs to show up to practice before we can justify spending a pick on him in the early 4th round. While he was excellent down the stretch last year, the Bucs also gave Warrick Dunn three million dollars to put on their uniform again, so you know they will use him. If Graham starts a true holdout (Drew Rosenhaus is his agent), Tampa will likely move on, rendering Graham possibly worthless.

Marc Levin - Graham is being drafted as an RB2. He warranted starting RB status last year when, through attrition, he was the only RB standing for the Buccaneers. However, the team now has a platoon of starting caliber RBs. Michael Bennett and Warrick Dun will push hard for playing time. Expect Gruden to gravitate to his veterans and for Graham to be mired in a RBBC. RB21 is too costly for a part-time player.

Jason Wood - Earnest Graham was a feel good story in 2007 but that doesn't make him likely to repeat the performance in 2008. Even if Cadillac Williams is out of the picture, Jon Gruden didn't bring back Warrick Dunn to sit on the sidelines. Graham isn't well rounded enough to guarantee significant playing time in all formations. Graham is a decent fantasy option, but he's not someone with much upside at current ADP.

2008 Schedule

2007 Game Summaries

Week 3 - Graham entered the game in relief of Cadillac Williams and made the most of his opportunity. He ran the ball eight times, totaling 75 yards and rushing scores from eight and 28 yards out, putting the game away for Tampa Bay. Graham showed nice burst and decision making in picking his holes, and showed his toughness by not going down on first contact on a number of plays.

Week 4 - Graham split time with Pittman after Cadillac Williams left the game with an injury. Graham ran for 48 yards on 17 carries and scored a touchdown from the one yard line. Tampa had gotten to the Carolina 13 yard line when Graham came into the game. He carried three straight times for the score. Later in the game, with the ball at the Carolina four yard line, Graham got four chances to score. The Panthers defense stepped up and held Graham out of the end zone on four straight plays.

Week 5 - Graham had a tough time running the ball against the Colts defense. There was rarely a hole to hit, and the Buccaneers quickly gave up the run game. Graham did catch both balls thrown his way, and showed the ability to get away from tacklers when given the chance.

Week 6 - Graham ran the ball 13 times for just 29 yards and caught six passes for 17 yards on a team high 11 targets in the passing game. While he got a lot of touches in the ballgame, Graham could not do much with his opportunities with a long of just ten yards.

Week 7 - As if it wasn't evident in the stat line, Graham truly did it all in this game. The entire offense essentially ran through him, and he responded by performing like a workhorse. His 32 touches were more than the rest of the team had combined (28), and he looked outstanding in compiling his 191 yards from scrimmage. Graham picked up chunks of yards at a time, consistently moving the pile and picking up first down after first down. He was very physical, and picked up a lot of tough yards running inside between the tackles. He was consistently open on the underneath dump-offs, and it was evident that he knew what to do with the football in his hands. Take it with a grain of salt since it was against the Detroit defense, but on this day at least, Graham looked every bit a featured back. About the only negative one can find with his performance is that he failed to find the end zone. He had an opportunity early in the second quarter, but was stuffed at the five yard line after a nine yard reception. WR Ike Hilliard caught a wide open touchdown on the following play.

Week 8 - Graham played well with the limited opportunities he was given. He broke tackles on several running plays, and ran good routes in pass coverage. One of his receptions was called back due to penalty and he was open on another pass play but the pass was thrown behind him.

Week 9 - The game's offensive star, Graham was most effective between the tackles and finished the game with a career high 34 carries for 124 yards and one touchdown. He ran hard and with determination and overpowered the Cardinals defense often.

Week 11 - Graham got off to a slow start in the first half, rushing seven times for 27 yards, but picked it up in the second half on his way to 102 yards on 17 carries. He seemed to get stronger as the game went on, and that showed on a fourth quarter 26 yard touchdown run. Graham continued to show a skill set that has helped him be successful to this point with excellent cut back vision and tough running in between the tackles. He also caught the only pass thrown to him for a six yard reception.

Week 12 - Earnest Graham could not find much running room against the Redskins, as he finished with 21 rushes for 75 yards and had a long run of 12 for the game. He was able to get into the end zone, scoring from one yard out in the first quarter. Graham was targeted four times in the passing game and caught two of those targets for nine yards.

Week 13 - Earnest Graham ran the ball 22 times for 106 yards and added a 25 yard touchdown run while he shouldered the load for the Buccaneer rushing attack. He also contributed seven receptions for 37 yards in the passing game, including a 21 yard catch and run that set up the game winning touchdown. Graham ran the ball hard, showed great vision and has a nasty stiff arm that he used along the way to over 100 yards rushing.

Week 14 - Graham finished with 15 rushes for 61 yards and two rushing touchdowns on the ground, and added six receptions for 45 yards in the passing game. He continued to run hard, and while he doesn't have breakaway speed, he uses his workmanlike attitude to get the most out of every run. His touchdown runs came from four and 11 yards out, and his 11 targets were a team high.

Week 15 - Earnest Graham once again shouldered the load for the Buccaneers on the ground, rushing the ball 22 times for 79 yards and a one yard touchdown, and adding five receptions for 40 yards to lead the club in receiving as well. Graham continued to make plays on the ground and through the air and was the second most targeted receiver, finishing with five for the game.

Week 16 - Graham played in the first half, where he finished with nine rushes for 21 yards and two receptions for 11 yards. He watched the rest of the game from the sidelines with the rest of the starters.

Week 18 - Earnest Graham ran the ball 18 times for 63 yards and added a first quarter touchdown from one yard out that put Tampa Bay on the board 7-0. Unfortunately for Graham and the Buccaneers, that was the only scoring they could manage until the fourth quarter. Graham was also used in the passing game, as he received six targets and brought in four receptions for 27 yards.