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QB David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars

HT: 6-1, WT: 237, Born: 2-14-1978, College: East Carolina, Drafted: Round 4

2009 Projections

Average draft position

Current as of September 7th. [Full ADP list]

Overall: F Jackson (114), P Harvin (115), David Garrard (116), R Mendenhall (117), D Hixon (118)
Position: M Cassel (101-QB15), M Hasselbeck (102-QB16), David Garrard (116 - QB17), T Edwards (128-QB18), K Orton (129-QB19)
Click here for a comparison of these players.

PPR Average draft position

Current as of September 7th. [Full PPR ADP list]

Overall: F Jackson (108), A Bradshaw (109), David Garrard (110), C Taylor (111), D Hixon (112)
Position: M Hasselbeck (101-QB14), E Manning (103-QB15), David Garrard (110 - QB16), B Favre (120-QB17), M Cassel (121-QB18)
Click here for a comparison of these players.

 Click here to go to the David Garrard spotlight, our staff's most detailed analysis.

Best Case

Since David Garrard took the reins in Jacksonville midway through the 2006 season, his top receivers have been Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, Dennis Northcutt, and Ernest Wilford - not exactly an all-star cast. This season he'll have seven-time Pro Bowler Torry Holt in the mix. Holt had a down year in 2008, but he still outperformed each of Jacksonville's WRs. If Holt can bounce back and give Garrard a legitimate playmaker to throw to on the outside (and if the Jaguars' offensive line can offer him some protection), Garrard possibly could challenge for a spot among the Top 5 fantasy QBs.

Worst Case

One might think that, barring injury, 2009 could not be any worse for Garrard than was 2008. The Jaguars' offensive line was in shambles last season, and Garrard lacked a go-to receiver. Yet, he still finished as the No. 11 fantasy QB. Can his downside be any worse than that? Actually, yes. While the Jaguars' season was a huge disappointment, the Jaguars' did face more prevent defenses, trailing in the fourth quarter, than they are likely to see this year. If Holt is washed up and Mike Walker isn't yet ready for prime time, the Jaguars' receiving corps could be worse than it was last year.

Outlook

Garrard should have a fantasy season comparable to last year's. Holt will provide some help, but he isn't the superstar he used to be. The offensive line should be better, but that will probably make a bigger difference in the running game than in the passing game. The Jaguars probably won't play from behind as often, but if they can better sustain drives, they'll have more total offensive plays. All in all, we can probably expect comparable yardage numbers and 15 to 20 TDs.

Relevant Articles

Why he is undervalued

Mike Brown - Garrard has finished the last two seasons ranked 16th and 11th. That's right, for all the tumult surrounding his 2008 season, Garrard was actually a starting caliber fantasy quarterback. Now he's been given Torry Holt to help out the passing game, and I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest the offensive line can't possibly be worse than it was a year ago. Add all of this up, and I can't understand why he'd be in a worse position than he was last year. Yet he's being taken nine spots below his 2008 stats. Weird.

David Dodds - Last year, while running for his life behind an injury-riddled offensive line, Garrard still managed numbers which equated to the 11th best QB. At QB20, Garrard represents all upside. The Jaguars reloaded on the offensive line taking offensive tackles Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton with their first two selections. The team also reloaded at wide receiver bringing in veteran seven-time Pro Bowler Torry Holt and drafting speedy/smaller options in Mike Thomas and Jarrett Dillard. With RB Fred Taylor moving on, we also should see a shift from the run-first strategy deployed the last few years. Also working in Garrard's favor in 2009 is a soft schedule that includes these below average defenses (Seattle, St. Louis, Kansas City, San Francisco, Miami and Cleveland).

Andy Hicks - David Garrard finished the 2008 season ranked as the 11th rated fantasy QB. He did this with Matt Jones, Reggie Williams and Jerry Porter as his leading receivers. All have thankfully for Garrard been removed from the Jaguars roster and in comes one of the most consistent and reliable receivers of the last 10 years, seven-time Pro Bowler Torry Holt. Holt will only be 33 at the start of the season and if Garrard can finish as a fantasy starter with trash at Wide Receiver, then Holt and whoever else fills in the blank spaces can only improve Garrard's status. At QB19 Garrard is a steal.

Marc Levin - Over the last two years, after gaining the undisputed starter's job, Garrard performed significantly better than the #20 QB. He finished as the #11 QB in 2008 and, in only 12 games, was the #16 QB in 2007. Add Torry Holt and the requisite swing passes for TDs to Maurice Jones Drew, and Garrard should at least be worth a high QB2 ranking. His upside is as a mid to bottom range QB1 -- that's worth more than the QB20.

Bob Magaw - Garrard finished 11th last year despite a nightmarish season for the Jaguars. Disappointing 1st round WR busts Reggie Williams and Matt Jones are gone, as well as heinous free agent mistake Jerry Porter. Replacing them are ex-Ram WR Torry Holt and promising rookie WRs Jarrett Dillard (holds NCAA record with 60 career receiving TDs) and Mike Thomas (has Pac 10 mark with 259 career receptions). Garrard was the beneficiary of blue chip OTs Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton slipping in the 2009 draft. He figures to be more explosive after shedding nearly a tenth of his pre-offseason diet 250 lbs! On the bonus plan, if all the above positives conspire to elevate the Jacksonville passing game, this will create space for Garrard (one of the best running QBs in the game) to make more plays with his feet.

2009 Schedule

2008 Game Summaries

Week 1 - Garrard never got into a consistent rhythm during the game. He showed flashes of big play ability, but was unable to sustain drives despite having fairly good field position. He did show a strong arm, attempting a couple of very deep passes that were disrupted by very good defense, with one of them being intercepted. When he was able to set his feet, Garrard stood in the face of the pass rush pressure and completed some tough throws, showing good touch in addition to the arm strength. Because he was forced to try to direct a one-dimensional offense as a result of his team being unable to run successfully, he faced an aggressive Titans' pass defense that sacked him seven times, intercepted him twice and forced him to lose a fumble.

Week 2 - With a banged up offensive line and a depleted receiving corpse Garrard tried to win the game by himself. He faced a fierce pass rush all game and was sacked twice but often scrambled away from would be tacklers and gained 32 yards on the ground. He failed to throw a touchdown pass, threw a bad pass that was picked off in the end zone, and posted a QB rating of 62.4.

The offensive line is going to be a patchwork unit all season, but when Jerry Porter recovers from his hamstring injury and Troy Williamson returns the Jaguars should be able to stretch the field.

Week 3 - Garrard did a very good job of getting first downs when he had to with the passing game. He was very accurate on his throws, which were mostly of the short variety. Garrard relied on his running game, and usually only had to throw short passes in order to gain a first down and keep the chains moving. He remained in the pocket most of the time, and only scrambled for yards twice. Apart from his interception when he forced the ball into double coverage while escaping the pocket, he was safe and accurate but did not have many opportunities to make big plays in the passing game.

Week 4 - Garrard was impressive in taking command of the offense with both pinpoint passing in the short game and timely running both to escape pressure and on designed running plays. He spread the ball around to whoever was open, and made good decisions in terms of who to pass to and when to scramble. Garrard would have posted even better numbers but several of his passes were dropped, most notably by Marcedes Lewis who dropped four passes. Undaunted, Garrard continued to look for ways to put his team in position to score, and had excellent all-around numbers both rushing and passing.

Week 5 - Garrard connected on two third and long completions to extend the first drive. A deep ball to Matt Jones garnered a pass interference call and set up the first TD score. After that however, the Steelers' pass rush and good open field tackling limited the Jaguars' offense in the first half to just 50 total yards in the first half with the offense running just 17 plays. Garrard came out throwing after halftime, spreading the ball around, but a big holding penalty stopped the first drive and a deflected pass on fourth down ended the next one. Despite getting out gained over two to one at one point, a 24 yard TD pass play found TE Marcedes Lewis and gave the Jaguars a brief 21-20 lead. The final drive ended with a pass batted down at the line. Garrard looked to take off and run just a few times, his longest was about eight yards.

Week 6 - Despite losing a fumble, Garrard did everything the Jaguars asked of him, throwing for 276 yards and a touchdown. Garrard showed a good arm, completing a 70 yard pass that would have taken the team down to the one yard line, but it was called back due to a holding penalty. Garrard's lone touchdown came in the third quarter when he found his tight end Mercedes Lewis wide open for a 30 yard touchdown.

Week 8 - Garrard started slowly, missing some open receivers, but settled down and posted strong overall numbers. He showed soft touches on shorter plays when the route necessitated that type of throw, and also a strong arm to get the ball downfield quickly. Garrard was forced to exhibit his running prowess several times due to Cleveland's pass rush, and he did so in exemplary manner, making defenders miss and running with speed to get by defenders at times. He was in sync mostly with Matt Jones, and targeted him 11 times in the second half alone, as they tried to rally from being down two scores. He did not force too many throws to Jones, and although he clearly favored him, did not lock onto him immediately. Garrard constantly kept surveying the field looking for the best passing option before invariably coming back to Jones.

Week 9 - Garrard was under duress throughout the game and could not get into a consistent rhythm passing the ball as a result. He made some good plays in getting the ball to his playmakers, but they were few and far between. Garrard tried to be aggressive and make plays with his arm, but misfired on most of those attempts. Ten of the fifteen intermediate and deep passes he attempted were incomplete as a result of him missing his receivers, either overthrowing them or throwing the ball where the defensive backs were able to deflect the ball. When given time to throw, he proved accurate, but Garrard was forced to rush most of his passes in this game. When he tried to elude the pass rush and run for yards, he was forced toward the middle of the field where reinforcements limited his yards rushing.

Week 10 - QB David Garrard had a very mediocre first half stats-wise but lit up the Lions with two second half touchdown passes. He was afforded the opportunity to rest after the team went up 38-7 in the second half. Garrard stayed in the pocket and managed to let off a few completed passes under pressure. He even had a defender grabbing him as he hit WR Jerry Porter for a touchdown in the third quarter.

Week 11 - Garrard never got into a rhythm. Due to the constant pressure he faced from the Titans' pass rush, he was unable to step into most of his throws, and as a result misfired a lot. He and his receivers were unable to make any adjustments, in large part to not having time to set his feet and look for an open receiver. Several times during the game, Garrard threw passes that had no chance of being caught by one of his receivers due to pressure up the middle that prevented him from stepping into his throws.

Week 12 - Garrard's final stat line is not going to do justice to the way he played in the game. He was the victim of a lot of bad luck, starting with the opening snap of the game. Center Brad Meester thought Garrard was under center (he was in shotgun) and the ball was fumbled, where it was picked up by LB Napoleon Harris for an easy touchdown. On the ensuing kickoff, there was another fumble that gave the ball to the Vikings in prime scoring territory. Before Garrard had even touched the ball, his team trailed 14-0. He did lead his team on a scoring drive at the end of the first quarter, capped by an easy strike to WR Reggie Williams. On Jacksonville's next possession, Garrard appeared to have thrown a second touchdown pass, this time to TE Marcedes Lewis. But Lewis couldn't hang onto the perfectly thrown ball and it fell incomplete.

For most of the game, he was given ample time to throw the football. He had a lot of time in the pocket, and the offensive line was doing a solid job against a tough defensive line. In fact, the second sack of Garrard was a case of him holding the ball too long, not anything the line did wrong. And on the rare occasion that he was flushed from the pocket, he did a nice job of eluding the pass rush. On one such play, he scrambled out to his right and found Lewis downfield for a big gain. It was a terrific individual effort, but unfortunately for Garrard not all of his linemen were playing within the rules. T Tony Pashos was whistled for his fourth holding penalty of the game, negating the big connection.

Week 13 - Garrard got off to a slow start as he finished the first half with five completions for 39 yards. His first quarter interception and fourth quarter fumble were turned into ten Houston points. Garrard did complete the game with respectable completion and yardage numbers but a large portion of those (including his lone touchdown pass) came near the end of the game with the Texans comfortably ahead. The Jacksonville field general had a reception on a batted ball, but the completion went for a loss of six yards.

Week 14 - It was a tough game for David Garrard. He was under a lot of pressure and the Chicago secondary knocked down many of his passes. There were three passes knocked down by defensive lineman in addition to the screens they knocked down. When Garrard did have a chance to throw the ball he did a great job in the cold weather. There were multiple drops during this game. Most were on very good passes and there was no excuse. Garrard did run a few times but his lanes closed up very fast.

Week 15 - Garrard started slowly, apart from his pass to Northcutt for the first score of the game, but he made good adjustments and benefited from a mediocre pass rush to have a solid game. He relied mostly on short and intermediate passes, and only threw deep to Northcutt. With his reliance on the shorter passing game, Garrard distributed the ball to three tight ends and Jones-Drew, and only threw to two wide receivers. He was more accurate in the second half, and complemented his passing with some timely rushes to help keep his team moving forward for scores. His numbers could have been better had it not been for Northcutt dropping a deep pass that was accurately thrown, and for overthrowing Troy Williamson in the end zone.

Week 16 - For most of the first half, Garrard matched counterpart Peyton Manning pass for pass. At one point, in fact, his numbers were even better than Manning's. He made a perfect pass to Dennis Northcutt on the first Jacksonville touchdown and made a number of crisp throws the rest of the first half as well (most of those going to Northcutt too). He was also getting the job done with his feet, fighting for extra yardage on a fourth down run on a drive that culminated with another Garrard run -- this one a two yard touchdown up the middle. He wasn't without fault, nearly throwing a costly interception to CB Tim Jennings just before halftime (a play that would have likely resulted in a Colts touchdown as well had Jennings not dropped the football).

The faults grew a lot more costly in the second half, particularly in the fourth quarter. He made a bad read on an interception that actually was returned for a touchdown, this one by Keiwan Ratliff midway through the fourth quarter. Garrard thought Ratliff was going to shift to the middle of the field, but at the last moment he dropped straight back into the passing lane on a ball intended for Reggie Williams. He easily picked it off and took it the other way for an easy score. Garrard wasn't finished being careless with the football after that pick, nearly getting intercepted by Antoine Bethea on the ensuing drive. He would have turned it over too, had it not been for a nice play by TE George Wrighster to break it up at the last moment. And on Jacksonville's final possession, Garrard made to inexcusable errors. The first was when he missed a wide open Reggie Williams in the end zone for what would have been the game-tying score. Williams broke loose (and TE Marcedes Lewis was open too) but Garrard's pass sailed way too high for Williams and fell incomplete. And with the Jaguars out of timeouts and just twelve seconds left on the clock, he took a sack on the following play. There was no chance for Jacksonville to regroup and get another play off, and the game abruptly ended.

Week 17 - Garrard had some success early on and led the Jaguars offense to a 7-3 lead in the first quarter. However, after that drive things got tough as he finished the game 14 for 25 for 127 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Although only sacked once, Garrard was pressured often and had little time to throw. He added 40 yards on four scrambles.