Week 4 QB projections • TB Stats
QB Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
HT: 6-2, WT: 248, Born: 1-13-1988, College: Kansas State, Drafted: Round 1, Pick 17
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2011 Projections
| G | CMP | ATT | PYD | Y/A | PTD | INT | RSH | YD | Y/R | TD | FPT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Dodds | 16 | 292 | 505 | 3485 | 6.9 | 23 | 14 | 58 | 290 | 5.0 | 2 | 302 |
| Bob Henry | 15 | 302 | 495 | 3630 | 7.3 | 27 | 13 | 65 | 300 | 4.6 | 1 | 327 |
| Jason Wood | 16 | 310 | 510 | 3590 | 7.0 | 22 | 13 | 60 | 310 | 5.2 | 3 | 313 |
Average draft position
Current as of September 6th. [Full ADP list]
Overall: J Addai (73), A Collie (74), Josh Freeman (75), S Rice (76),Position: B Roethlisberger (58-QB9), P Manning (61-QB10), Josh Freeman (75 - QB11), M Stafford (79-QB12), E Manning (83-QB13)
Click here for a comparison of these players.
PPR Average draft position
Current as of September 6th. [Full PPR ADP list]
Overall: J Graham (79), M Stafford (80), Josh Freeman (81), M Tolbert (82), P Garcon (83)Position: P Manning (72-QB10), M Stafford (80-QB11), Josh Freeman (81 - QB12), E Manning (89-QB13), S Bradford (91-QB14)
Click here for a comparison of these players.
Click here to go to the Josh Freeman spotlight, our staff's most detailed analysis.
Best Case
Freeman made great strides in his second season as the Buccaneers' starter, raising his number of passing TDs from 10 in 2009 to 25 during 2010, and decreasing the number of interceptions from 18 to 6. He started all 16 games and rang up 291/474 for 3,451 yards passing, and added 68/364/0 rushing to his accomplishments on the field - he was the seventh-best fantasy QB in the land last year, in fact. With a young and dynamic wide receiving corps headed by Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn, and an established, savvy veteran in Kellen Winslow, Jr., at tight end, the Buccaneers' starting lineup is good enough to allow Freeman to continue to progress in productivity during 2011.
Worst Case
Benn's injured knee is reported to be healing at a phenomenal rate, but if he suffers a setback during training camp, there will be a hole to fill at WR #2 for Freeman. The depth players, Sammie Stroughter and Michael Spurlock, have a combined 76 receptions and three NFL TDs between the two players. They are unproven as every-down players. Even though Freeman has taken the lead in organizing players-only workouts during the NFL lockout, he is still a very young player who would have benefited from a full suite of OTAs and minicamps during the preseason, and those are gone by the boards as of mid-June.
Outlook
Freeman is the consensus 11th-ranked fantasy QB on the Footballguys.com boards as of mid-June, ranging from eighth to 14th on individual expert's QB boards. He is projected to check in somewhere between 3,500 and 3,600 yards passing, with around 23 TDs thrown, and perhaps 300 yards rushing with two or three rushing TDs during 2011.
Relevant Articles
Message board spotlight thread - July 14thJosh Freeman Spotlight - July 14th
Why he is undervalued
according to three of our writers (based on an ADP > 250 on Aug 17 --- go here for the complete article)Ryan Hester - In his second year in the league, Josh Freeman had a surprisingly effective year and, therefore, led his team to a surprisingly good record. Freeman demonstrated that he can make plays to help his win instead of just being a young, game-managing QB. His best wide receivers -- Mike Williams and Arrelious Been -- were just rookies. Freeman is being drafted slightly after Matt Ryan -- a QB who had by far his best statistical season in his third season last year. Freeman is someone who could make a similar leap this season. Another reason to like Freeman is that his passing stats don't have to match similarly-drafted QBs for him to end the season ranked higher than them. As a mobile QB, he can add points with his legs as well -- rushing for 364 yards last year.
Mark Wimer - Freeman has done nothing but improve in each of his NFL seasons, and enters his third campaign as a seasoned veteran. He is surrounded by one of the youngest and most dynamic cast of skill position players in the NFL. Dezmon Briscoe is emerging as an outstanding WR2/WR3 during training camp, and RB Kregg Lumpkin is staking a claim to be the third-down/pass-catching change of pace back. Adding those guys to LeGarrette Blount/Mike Williams/Arrelious Benn/Kellen Winslow Jr creates a multi-faceted attack down in Tampa. Jason Wood - I'm betting a lot of my fellow Footballguys will list Freeman as overvalued. And they would be wrong. No, I don't expect he'll match last year's unreal 25 TD vs. 6 INT ratio, but he doesn't have to in order to finish as a top 10 fantasy QB. Freeman ran 68 times for 364 yards last year, but didn't get into the end zone. That's a huge statistical outlier. Of all the QBs with at least 60 rushing attempts, Freeman is the only one to not score at least one TD, and on average those QBs score on 5% of their rushing attempts. You can be sure Freeman will rush for 3-5 scores (or more) this year, which will more than offset a slight decline in his TD passing totals.Why he is overvalued
according to two of our writers (based on an ADP > 250 on Aug 17 --- go here for the complete article)Dave Larkin - I'm a believer in Josh Freeman's immense talent on the football field. He is a very exciting player to watch. He is tough as nails and hangs in the pocket to take whatever hit may come his way. He distributes the ball very accurately and has a lot of poise. My issue here is his ranking on the top 150. I just don't see him outperforming quarterbacks like Eli Manning, Joe Flacco and Matthew Stafford by such a margin.
Aaron Rudnicki - While Freeman had a very impressive season in 2010, I'm not convinced he will be able to replicate it this year. There is a natural tendency for players who play way above expectations in one year to regress in the year after and Freeman looks like a strong candidate for this. He's a very young QB playing in a tough division with a very young group of skill players surrounding him. Apart from Kellen Winslow, the starting RB and both starting WRs are all entering their second year in the league. Mike Williams looks like a future star but I have questions about LeGarette Blount and Arrelious Benn. I think we'll see some growing pains for this group and Freeman will likely see a dropoff. I think he's being drafted based on his ceiling rather than his true value and expect him to perform more like a good fantasy backup rather than a reliable starter.Latest News
Buccaneers | Josh Freeman plans to talk to new OC (Sat Feb 11, 02:22 PM) - Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman said he planned to talk with offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan Friday, Feb. 10, or Saturday, Feb. 11. link to story2011 Schedule
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Lions |
| 2 | at Minnesota Vikings |
| 3 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | at San Francisco 49ers |
| 6 | New Orleans Saints |
| 7 | Chicago Bears |
| Bye week | |
| 9 | at New Orleans Saints |
| 10 | Houston Texans |
| 11 | at Green Bay Packers |
| 12 | at Tennessee Titans |
| 13 | Carolina Panthers |
| 14 | at Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 15 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 16 | at Carolina Panthers |
| 17 | at Atlanta Falcons |
2011 Game Summaries
Week 1 - Freeman struggled to move the ball against a very tough Detroit defense. In the first and third quarters, Freeman had just two completions for eight yards total. He also left the game briefly in the third quarter to have additional passing added to his ribs. Despite struggling for most of the game though, Freeman kept his team focused and he nearly led them back to tie the game in the fourth quarter. Freeman struggled to find the open man for most of the game and his receivers were frequently well covered. However, in the fourth quarter, Freeman was able to settle down and keep his team focused. His longest pass came at the start of the quarter, a 22 yard crossing route to Kellen Winslow. However, it wasn't until there was under two minutes to play that Freeman finally was able to get the ball into the end zone. On 4th and 3, Mike Williams ran a crossing route to the back of the end zone, and Freeman threw a pass high and to the back of the end zone. Williams made a great catch, and toe-tapped into the back of the end zone for the score. It was the only time the Bucs reached the end zone on offense. Freeman racked up a bunch of stats in garbage time late in the game, on short check-down passes and sideline routes as Tampa tried to tie the game. Unfortunately they fell a little short.
Week 2 - Coming into the game, seven of Freeman's 13 career wins had come on fourth quarter comebacks. This would be #8. Despite having just 39 total passing yards in the first half, and only two receptions by his top receivers Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn, Freeman led his team to victory after it looked like they were going to be blown out. Freeman maintained his composure and came out in the second half, spreading the ball around more and getting everyone involved. He completed passes to seven different receivers in the second half of the game, and the 25 yard TD pass to Benn with 6:45 to play marked his 15th straight game with a TD pass. The play came after a big 19 yard reception by Dezmon Briscoe and a 15 yard roughing the passer penalty tacked on to the end of it. Freeman faked to Blount and when the defense bit, he launched a perfect strike to Benn down the left side of the field, dropping it right into his hands in the end zone. It made up for the TD pass that he threw to Mike Williams earlier that was called back because Benn was flagged for an illegal shift. Freeman embodied the 'whatever it takes' attitude, dumping the ball over the middle to Earnest Graham or Preston Parker when the deep routes were covered, or even scrambling and diving head first for a 12 yard first down when the pass protection broke down. Freeman may not put up Brady-like fantasy numbers, but he keeps his team close and likes the pressure of the 4th quarter comeback.
Week 3 - Freeman is a mix of good leadership and poor decision making. While he makes some bad throws and poor decisions at very inopportune times he also has the tenacity to bounce back form it and lead his team. He started off the game by throwing a terrible interception into double coverage on a play where his intended receiver had almost zero chance of making a play. He cost his team at least 3 points on a drive that was set up by the Barber fumble recovery. Case in point on his 3rd drive of the game he badly missed a wide open Mike Williams but then he comes right back on the next play and hits him up the left seam for 16 yards and a first down. He has the ability to shake off mistakes and come right back to the same guy and create a first down. It's obvious he has the support of his team form the top to the bottom. Late in the 1st half Freeman drove the Bucs on their only touchdown drive of the day as he hit Earnest Graham on a little short pass but the touchdown was called back as Graham did not break the plane of the end zone. Very next play Freeman used hos 250 pound frame to take it in and give the Bucs a 10-3 lead before halftime. From a fantasy standpoint it was not a good day for Freeman who had his touchdown offset with 2 interceptions and his passing yards were well below the league average right now. Freeman was not pretty to watch on Sunday and he overthrew everyone throughout the game. The field conditions were wet but he practices in the rain in Florida all the time so this should not have been a problem for him. Give the Falcons defense some credit as they had a good game plan to take away his outside receivers.