Week 4 QB projections • BUF Stats
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills
HT: 6-2, WT: 221, Born: 11-24-1982, College: Harvard, Drafted: Round 7
| Outlook • Career Statistics • Game Logs • Split Stats • Play-by-play • Latest News |
2011 Projections
| G | CMP | ATT | PYD | Y/A | PTD | INT | RSH | YD | Y/R | TD | FPT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Dodds | 15 | 245 | 410 | 2645 | 6.5 | 17 | 15 | 50 | 210 | 4.2 | 1 | 214 |
| Bob Henry | 12 | 227 | 370 | 2442 | 6.6 | 16 | 12 | 60 | 267 | 4.5 | 2 | 217 |
| Jason Wood | 15 | 290 | 485 | 3100 | 6.4 | 19 | 15 | 35 | 145 | 4.1 | 1 | 241 |
Average draft position
Current as of September 6th. [Full ADP list]
Overall: M Williams (154), D Keller (155), Ryan Fitzpatrick (156), J Jones (157),Position: D McNabb (137-QB21), C McCoy (150-QB22), Ryan Fitzpatrick (156 - QB23), C Newton (161-QB24), D Garrard (178-QB25)
Click here for a comparison of these players.
PPR Average draft position
Current as of September 6th. [Full PPR ADP list]
Overall: D Keller (150), C Cooley (151), Ryan Fitzpatrick (152), B Tate (153),Position: M Sanchez (134-QB20), D McNabb (149-QB21), Ryan Fitzpatrick (152 - QB22), C McCoy (156-QB23), C Newton (176-QB24)
Click here for a comparison of these players.
Click here to go to the Ryan Fitzpatrick spotlight, our staff's most detailed analysis.
Best Case
Fitzgerald was actually a fantasy force for the first ten games he played in 2010. His production put him in the top ten of most leagues during that stretch, and he could have been top five if Stevie Johnson hadn't famously dropped an easy long game-winning touchdown vs. the Steelers in overtime. He'll be in the same offense with the same supporting cast on a team that is likely to be playing from a behind a lot. The Bills had numerous opportunities to draft a rookie QB to push Fitzpatrick and they passed every single time, so they must be ready to roll with him for the whole season. Fitzpatrick was also the #5 rushing quarterback last year and he only failed to throw a touchdown pass in one game last season.
Worst Case
Much like Tyler Thigpen in 2008, the league seemed to catch up to Fitzpatrick and what a Chan Gailey passing offense was doing with a QB of limited talent by the end of the season. Three of his last four games were weak by fantasy standards and the offense was not nearly as pass heavy as it was earlier in the season, when Fitzpatrick had games of 43,45,48, and 51 passing attempts. After his poor last quarter of the season, it is hard to trust Fitzpatrick in any given game, and the team could sour on him (just as they did on Trent Edwards). There's no doubt that Fitzpatrick is one of the least talented starting QBs and 2010 was the first year of his career that he finished with more touchdown passes than interceptions, so the old barely adequate Fitzpatrick could surface at any time.
Outlook
Fitzpatrick is a cheap late-round fantasy backup QB who could perform like a fantasy starter for a good stretch of the season. He is a good target if your #1 is Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, or any other QB that you might need to have some time to get ramped up. He is an underrated fantasy commodity because of his nondescript pedigree and underwhelming skillset.
Relevant Articles
Message board spotlight thread - August 10thRyan Fitzpatrick Spotlight - August 10th
Why he is undervalued
according to one of our writers (based on an ADP > 250 on Aug 17 --- go here for the complete article)Jeff Tefertiller - Fitzpatrick flourished in Chan Gailey's system after taking over in week three last year. He looks to improve on a strong 2010 season, where he finished as a fantasy starter. Somehow he is forgotten this year. The emergence of Stevie Johnson gives the Buffalo passing game a much-needed "go to" receiver. Fitzpatrick makes a perfect fantasy option for owners waiting a long time for their starting quarterback.
Why he is a good deep sleeper pick
according to two of our writers --- go here for the complete articleChris Smith - If you look at only arm strength and natural ability, there is no way that Fitzpatrick would be starting in the NFL. He is the classic overachiever at quarterback but has great intelligence and on-field presence. He has talent around him on offense and if the offensive line can block decently, he will emerge as a serviceable fantasy quarterback.
Mark Wimer - The Bills traded Lee Evans away - because they have one of the deepest, youngest rosters of wide recievers in the NFL. 25-year old Steve Johnson is a bona-fide #1 WR. 24-year old Donald Jones and 24-year old Marcus Easley have shown flashes of big-time talent. 29-year old Roscoe Parrish and 28-year old Brad Smith haven't become household names yet, but they are solid NFL-caliber players. Fitzpatrick has an embarrassment of riches to work with, and a suspect defense to overcome. He should air it out a lot this year.Latest News
Bills | Ryan Fitzpatrick injury update (Sun Feb 5, 03:31 PM) - Updating a previous report, Buffalo Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick played the second half of the season with four cracked ribs as well as a injured sternum. link to story Bills | Ryan Fitzpatrick played with injury (Sat Feb 4, 12:34 PM) - Buffalo Bills WR David Nelson said QB Ryan Fitzpatrick played part of the season with cracked ribs. Fitzpatrick suffered the injury in Week 8 and played the rest of the year with the injury. Our View: Fitzpatrick's play certainly fell off in the middle of the season. This was around the time he received his big money contract extension. We'll see if Fitzpatrick can look like the QB from early in the 2011 season, and not the QB from the last half of the 2011 season.link to story Bills | QB coach to work with quarterbacks on mechanics (Mon Jan 30, 04:58 PM) - Buffalo Bills quarterbacks coach David Lee said he will watch tape on QBs Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyler Thigpen and WR Brad Smith and work with each to improve their throwing mechanics. link to story
2011 Schedule
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
| 1 | at Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2 | Oakland Raiders |
| 3 | New England Patriots |
| 4 | at Cincinnati Bengals |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 6 | at New York Giants |
| Bye week | |
| 8 | Washington Redskins |
| 9 | New York Jets |
| 10 | at Dallas Cowboys |
| 11 | at Miami Dolphins |
| 12 | at New York Jets |
| 13 | Tennessee Titans |
| 14 | at San Diego Chargers |
| 15 | Miami Dolphins |
| 16 | Denver Broncos |
| 17 | at New England Patriots |
2011 Game Summaries
Week 1 - The big question for Fitzpatrick and the Bills heading into 2011 was whether much of the success that they had on offense in 2010 would carry over. Apparently it will. Fitzpatrick was cool, consistent, took chances, and made huge throws in the redzone all day long. The offense was aided by numerous turnovers by the Chiefs and great field position. But they took advantage on every turnover by putting points on the board. Fitz spread the ball around wonderfully, not only continuing to use his great rapport with Steve Johnson, but even showing a new look by throwing to the tight end 5 times, and twice in the endzone. The Chiefs defense was hurt when Eric Berry left the game early on, and Fitzpatrick exploited that loss by attacking the backups. In 2010, many thought Fitzpatrick's big games possibly were flukes. Anyone that watched the games though, had to be impressed. In 2011, he has picked up right where he left off, by looking extremely impressive. The Bills have to be excited, as this offense looked sensational. Combine that with an impressive showing by the D-line, and this team could be a major sleeper this year.
Week 2 - It was a tale of two halves for Fitzpatrick and the Bills offense. In the first half, Fitzpatrick was victimized by some dropped passes and could not seem to find a rhythm. He threw a bad interception over the middle that wound up leading to 7 points for the Raiders and the Bills went into halftime with a 21-3 deficit. In the second half, however, the Raiders had no answer for the Bills spread attack as they scored a touchdown on 5 straight drives and won the game on a 4th down pass play with 14 seconds left. The offensive line held up for the second week in a row, opening up some huge holes for Fred Jackson in the running game while also giving Fitzpatrick sufficient time in the pocket. With the Bills falling behind early, he was forced to pass the ball 46 times so it was even more impressive that the Raiders were only able to generate a few hits and no sacks in the game. While Fitzpatrick didn't take many chances downfield, he was excellent at making quick decisions and delivering the ball accurately to an open receiver. He only threw for 264 yards but finished with 3 touchdowns and also added 23 yards rushing on 3 attempts.
Week 3 - The strong play of Ryan Fitzpatrick continued this week as he led the Bills to another comeback win, this time over their hated rivals. After a slow start that saw his first two drives end on an interception and the Bills fall behind 21-0 in the first half, Fitzpatrick found his rhythm and started matching Tom Brady throw for throw. While he has locked onto one or two players at times in the past, he did a great job this week of spreading the ball around and keeping everybody involved. With the Bills in comeback mode from very early on, Fitzpatrick finished with 40 pass attempts and lit up the struggling Patriots secondary for 369 yards. The first interception he had came on a tipped pass when the ball went right through the hands of WR Donald Jones, and the second came on a 4th down play when he forced a throw into coverage but it basically worked out like a punt. He did almost have a third interception late in the game on a terrible deep throw into the end zone, but the Patriots were flagged for pass interference on the play. The Patriots did not generate much in the way of a pass rush in the game but they frequently only rushed 3 or 4 guys and dropped the rest in coverage against the Bills spread attack. In addition to his typically accurate passing on short and intermediate routes in the middle of the field, Fitzpatrick also made some great deep throws in the game and beat the Patriots for big gains down either sideline.
Week 4 - Fitzpatrick did not have a particularly good game this week as he ran into a tough and underrated Bengals defense. He didn't make any big mistakes in the game, but also didn't hit on any big throws either. It was a defensive struggle for much of the game and the Bills took control towards the end of the second half thanks to a couple of takeaways from their defense. The Bills offensive line only gave up one sack in the game but the Bengals were credited with 6 QB hits. The offensive line had been a strength up to this point, but had some difficultly creating a solid pocket for Fitzpatrick to operate out of. The Bengals did a good job of collapsing the pocket and crowding the middle of the field, which forced Fitzpatrick to throw more passes to the outside away from his comfort zone. We knew that Fitzpatrick wasn't going to throw for multiple touchdowns in every game he played, but it did seem as though the Bills went pretty conservative in their play calling while trying to protect the lead. He completed 10 of 14 pass attempts in the second half but only picked up 78 yards.