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WR Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills

HT: 5-10, WT: 197, Born: 3-11-1981, College: Wisconsin, Drafted: Round 1, Pick 13

2008 Projections

Best Case

Evans clearly showed what he is capable of in 2006 when he finished as the 7th best fantasy WR in the league. Although he lacks ideal size, Evans has few other weaknesses. He has the speed to stretch the defense but also runs very precise routes, making it very difficult for a defense to contain him without a double team. At 27 years old, he should be in the prime of his playing career and will have extra motivation going into the final year of his contract. He struggled last year due to inconsistent play from the QB position, overly conservative play calling from the coaching staff, and the lack of a legitimate WR2 playing across from him. This year, the QB position figures to be more stable as Trent Edwards has been named the starter and should remain that way barring an injury. The coaching staff was overly conservative last year due to inexperience and a rash of injuries on defense, but the defense figures to be much better this year and that could allow them to open up the offense a bit more. Lastly, the Bills drafted WR James Hardy in the 2nd round of the draft and believe that he'll be able to make defenses pay for rolling their coverage toward Evans.

Worst Case

Evans has had his best seasons while playing with strong-armed QBs like Drew Bledsoe and JP Losman. Although Trent Edwards appears to be more accurate than them on the shorter routes, he probably won't be as effective as they were on deep throws. This could hurt his production as he probably won't be able to make as many big plays as he used to. Additionally, the conservative play calling by the coaching staff last year may not change much given the way this team is built around defense and the running game. The offensive coordinator has changed but the system and surrounding talent figure to remain relatively the same. Evans is clearly one of the most talented young WRs in the league, but the situation he is in figures to limit his production. If he suffers through another disappointing season, he may refuse to sign a long-term contract in Buffalo and could force the team to use their franchise tag on him.

Outlook

The Bills have opened preliminary talks to try and get Lee Evans signed to a contract extension. It certainly won't be cheap, but he's one of the most important players on this team and they'd be wise to lock him up before the price goes up even more. He's already proven that he can handle the #1 WR role in the past and should bounce back from a disappointing season last year. Even in a year when the Bills kept changing QBs every few weeks, Evans still managed to put up some respectable numbers. While he is unlikely to finish among the top-10 WRs this year, it's reasonable to expect a return to the top-20. A lot hinges on how Trent Edwards does, but the offensive line provided solid protection last year, and he should show significant improvement now that he's had a full season to adjust to the league. Evans has never missed a game during his four years in the league, and if the team can't sign him to an extension, he'll have added incentive to go out and put up some big numbers.

2007 Game Summaries

Week 1 - Evans got the Champ Bailey treatment, so they switched him to the left side where he got the Dre Bly treatment. It added up to one of his worst days as a pro. He simply could not get open.

Week 2 - Evans has not been able to get on track so far this season. He recorded only catches of nine and eight yards on seven targets and now has only four receptions for 22 yards on the season.

Evans was targeted on deep routes twice in the end zone. On the first play, he appeared to get away with pushing Ike Taylor, but still was unable to hold the well thrown Losman pass. On the second occasion, Evans appeared to be the victim of pass interference and was able to get only one hand on the pass. Visibly upset, Evans yelled at the referee and received an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for the second consecutive play.

Week 3 - Evans' early season struggles continued. He hauled in a single pass for seven yards. No Bills' player caught more than two balls in the game so Evans' production issues are likely the result of a worrisome team-wide offensive problem which will likely be heightened if J.P. Losman is out for an extender period of time.

Week 4 - Buffalo made sure to get Evans involved in the game early; the first offensive play was a quick pass to Evans for a six yard gain. Evans was targeted a team high eight times and led the Bills in receiving. Trent Edwards' lone interception came on a deep pass attempt to Evans in the end zone. The ball may have been slightly underthrown, but Evans waited for it to get to him (it never did) rather than go up and fight for the ball. Evans also dropped a pass early in the game. He had lots of room to run, if he had caught the pass. Evans later made a pretty leaping catch, where he had to fully extend to reach a high Edwards' pass. It was an encouraging game for Evans after such a slow start to the season.

Week 5 - Evans continued his fantasy slump, accounting for only one first half catch. Trent Edwards took very few chances throwing the ball and seemed content to check down to his RBs and TEs; this is undoubtedly a big reason why Evans was a non factor in the pass offense. Evans' best play came in the fourth quarter when he ran down Dallas CB Terence Newman after an INT and forced a fumble.

Week 7 - Evans entered the game with only 12 catches for 113 yards. He had his best game of the season with five grabs for 98 yards. Evans was wide open on a deep post pattern that netted 54 yards. He bobbled the ball, but was able to corral it for the Bills' longest gain of the season. Evans still does not have a touchdown reception this season.

Week 8 - Evans had a breakout game against the Jets catching five of his seven targets for 138 yards and a touchdown. His first touchdown grab of the year, came in the fourth quarter as he took the ball away two Jets defenders and finished the rest off with his legs going for an 85 yards touchdown, the longest in Buffalo history.

Week 9 - Evans had a monster first quarter, but then was pretty quiet the rest of the day. He caught three balls and a touchdown on the opening drive, and was the most frequently targeted receiver by Losman, being targeted 11 times.

Week 10 - Evans saw his recent resurgence slip a little and he was held out of the end zone. He is WR1 in this offense but was not targeted until the second quarter. On Buffalo's last drive on the first half Evans got behind the cornerback in the end zone but the pass was badly under thrown and the ball was intercepted. Evans was only targeted twice in the fourth quarter when the Bills rallied to pull out the victory. It seemed Buffalo did not want Losman passing with the game on the line.

Week 11 - Evans had a reception overturned upon review by the officials as the ball clearly bounced off the ground before Evans corralled it.

Week 12 - Evans had a brutal afternoon. He was nearly shutout and only caught his two passes when there was less than one minute left in game. Losman was intercepted in the second quarter when he under threw Evans along the sidelines, but the Bills' passing attack focused more on short passes and screens to running backs. However, Evans threw the key block that sprung Parrish on his touch down run.

Week 13 - Evans was Edwards most frequent target. He hauled in half of them and finished third on the team in receiving yards.

Week 14 - Evans caught only two passes in the game, but both went for touchdowns. Evans' first grab was in the corner of the end zone for a nine yard touchdown. Evans was initially ruled out of bounds, but a replay challenge revealed that he did, in fact, get both feet down. Evans later caught a 70 yard bomb that put the last nail in the coffin for the Dolphins. Evans now has four touchdowns this season.

Week 15 - Evans struggled to both hang on to passes and get into a rhythm with his quarterback during the game. Paired up against Browns DB Leigh Bodden, Evans' speed and cut back ability were effectively nullified by the snow. This was especially evident on a go route that Evans ran in the third quarter. On the route, he tried to pull up to shake off Bodden, slipped, and really failed to build up any steam running down the field. Bodden was able to stay with Evans for the entire route and broke up a well timed pass from Edwards. Despite the poor game stats, it was clear throughout the game that Evans was the go-to receiver in the offense. In particular, on the final 60 yard drive for the Bills, Evans was targeted on five of the 12 plays of the drive.

Week 16 - Evans scored the Bills second touchdown on a four yard pass in the first quarter, but otherwise was not a major factor in the game. He led all Buffalo receivers with three balls for 43 yards, but he was only targeted once in the first quarter and three times in the fourth.

Week 17 - Evans caught his only pass in the second quarter on a short crossing route. Former South Florida standout J.R. Reed crushed him after a two yard gain and Evans did not return to the game.