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RB Warrick Dunn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HT: 5-8, WT: 180, Born: 1-5-1975, College: Florida State, Drafted: Round 1, Pick 12

2008 Projections

Best Case

Dunn suffered through his worst season ever in Atlanta last year, but not much went right for the Falcons due to turmoil on the roster and among the coaching staff. Prior to last year's disaster, he'd always averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry while with the Falcons, and consistently garnered ~200 yards receiving per season. Now that Dunn is back in Tampa Bay, he'll be a complement to the Buccaneers' starter - at least at the beginning of the season. If Earnest Graham falters as the featured back, Dunn could get a shot to take over the top job. He still has the potential to post 1200-1300 yards-combined seasons if given enough touches on the football.

Worst Case

Dunn has been in the NFL for going on 12 years now, and looked like he hit the wall last season, eking out 228/718/4 rushing (a 3.1 yards-per-carry average) while posting his lowest average yards-per-reception in a decade (6.4 - 37/238/0). All the warning signs of a significant drop-off in Dunn's performance are present. He is at the stage in his career when the grind of training camp may become too monotonous - he wouldn't be the first player to suddenly decide to retire during pre-season. Even if Dunn stays the course, his best days as a fantasy player appear to be behind him - he could stand around on the sidelines a lot during 2008.

Outlook

Most of the Footballguys expect Dunn to land outside the top 50 fantasy RBs this season - he's not a guy to spend a high or mid-round draft selection on, though a late-round flyer for Graham owners might be in order, depending on how Cadillac Williams looks during the preseason.

2007 Game Summaries

Week 1 - Dunn was the primary offensive weapon for the majority of the afternoon. Dunn finished with 22 carries for 55 yards, rarely finding much room against the stout Minnesota Viking run defense. Multiple times he made longer carries out of what initially appeared to be nothing, picking his way through traffic for extra yards. He had most of his success running sweeps and tosses to the outside. Dunn also tallied 26 yards on four receptions and five targets. Dunn was a frequent option for Joey Harrington checking down from his wide receivers.

Week 2 - Dunn looked good in the limited opportunities he had, especially considering the Jaguars' defense was focused on stopping the run. Although he did not break any long runs, he made the first defender miss a few times, but was wrapped up shortly afterwards by the second wave of defenders. Dunn was only used on short passing attempts in the passing game. He did have a nice rushing TD where he made a nice cut and fought for extra yardage.

Week 3 - Dunn carried the ball 11 times for 55 yards. He also added four catches for 13 yards. He had a run of 17 yards but fumbled at the end of the run and Carolina recovered. At the end of the first half, Harrington threw to Dunn three straight times in the Carolina red zone. They didn't pick up a first down so Atlanta kicked a field goal. Dunn had another carry in the red zone late in the game. He picked up five yards to the ten yard line. The drive ended in another field goal.

Week 4 - Dunn ran well, and although he did not have many long plays, he showed quickness and determination on several runs, and was close to breaking free for longer gains a few times. He was on the field for the last series as Atlanta tried to hold on to their lead, and also had some touches in the red zone, both running and receiving.

Week 5 - Dunn could not find much space throughout most of the game, but looked very strong in breaking four or five tackles on an eighteen yard gain in the final minutes in which he nearly scored. On the next play, a bad pitch from Byron Leftwich as Leftwich was being tackled prevented him from being able to take the ball in to even up the game.

Week 6 - Dunn came into this game only averaging 3.4 yards per carry, and didn't do anything in the first half to improve on that because he only had 11 yards on five carries. He did have one catch for 11 yards in the half. Things didn't get any better for Dunn in the second half as the Falcons played from behind. He had three carries for four yards and one catch for two yards in the second half.

Week 7 - Dunn struggled to get things going on the ground, gaining just 2.1 yards per carry, and was outgained by Jerious Norwood despite Norwood receiving fewer carries. Dunn was also absent in red zone formations late in the game. Two of Dunn's three targets came from Joey Harrington.

Week 9 - Dunn had a season high 100 yards rushing, and scored a touchdown. He wasn't really used in the passing attack at all. He was getting most of the carries even before Jerious Norwood injured his ankle.

Week 10 - Warrick Dunn carried the load for the Falcons. He had 26 carries for 89 yards including a touchdown on a nice 30 yard run. The run was his longest of the season. Dunn also added three catches for 51 yards. Dunn only had two red zone carries but they were around the 15 yard line so they weren't exactly legitimate scoring chances.

Week 11 - Dunn had a tough time finding room in the run game, finishing with 15 rushes for just 32 yards, but was busy in the passing game with eight receptions for 40 yards. He led the club in targets with 12 and proved to be a reliable outlet for both of the Atlanta quarterbacks.

Week 12 - Dunn provided a solid rushing attack against the Colts. He found holes that were very tiny and made them most out of what was available. He passed a huge milestone becoming on the 22nd running back in NFL history to amass 10,000 yards.

Week 13 - Dunn had a very unproductive day. He basically split carries with Norwood (ten to eight) but had only 17 yards on the ground to show for it.

Week 14 - Dunn could not get much going on the night. He had a nice run when he caught the ball on a screen, cutting back across the field to gain 11 yards.

Week 15 - Dunn ran the ball eight times for just 32 yards, including a lost fumble, but the running attack was limited by the big deficit the Falcons faced early on. He did record one catch for seven yards in the passing game, where he was targeted three times.

Week 16 - Dunn was an afterthought in this game, as Atlanta never got their ground game going. Dunn found little room to run against the Cardinal defense.

Week 17 - Dunn doesn't appear to have lost a step. Between him and Norwood, the carries were even, but Dunn had a couple that got him loose for big yardage. Not to mention a nifty end around touchdown that he somehow managed to keep in bounds from the five yard line in.