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PK Phil Dawson, Cleveland Browns
HT: 5-11, WT: 200, Born: 1-23-1975, College: Texas, Drafted: ---
2008 Projections
Best Case
The Browns' offense was one of the bigger surprises of 2007, and Dawson benefited from their success. His 120 points was by far the most of his career. He previously had scored no more than 100 in a season and as few as 47. Dawson was very accurate on field goals, hitting 26 of 30 (86.7%). Two of the four misses were blocked. Dawson's best statistical year ever came in 2005, after signing a big contract extension. He missed only two field goals that year, going 27 of 29 (93.1%). That followed two years of modest success: he connected on 18 of 21 field goals (85.7%) in 2003, and 24 of 29 (82.8%) in 2004. If the Cleveland offense continues with the success of last year, and Dawson displays the accuracy of 2005 or 2007, then he should once again be a top ten kicker.
Worst Case
In 2006, Dawson had his worst statistical year. He went only 21 of 29 (72.4%) on field goals, including 6 of 12 from 40-49 yards. On average he misses a PAT once every 1.3 years. If Dawson or the Brown's offense regresses, that will drop him at of the top ten. If both occur, he would tumble back to the bottom of the kicker scoring barrel. Dawson has been Cleveland's kicker since their return to the NFL as an expansion team in 1999. Prior to last year's 9th place finish, the Browns ranked 29th, 20th, 16th, 23rd, 20th, 21st, 30th, and 31st in kicker scoring. Over his first eight years in the league, Dawson averaged only 83 points a year.
Outlook
Dawson had 30 field goal attempts last year, which was only one more than the 29 attempts each of the previous three years. The big difference last year was the 43 PAT attempts. He had averaged only 24 PAT attempts the prior four years. Dawson has been accurate from long range over his career, going 7 of 9 from 50+ yards. He typically didn't get a lot of distance on his kickoffs, averaging only 59.0 yards over the first seven years of his career. The last two years however, he improved in that department. The coaching staff and offensive players that made it happen last year will be back, and Dawson's poor 2006 accuracy appears to be the exception rather than the rule. That means another top ten finish is a strong possibility.
On a side note, during the off-season the NFL approved use of instant replay to review field goals. It's unofficially known as the Dawson Rule, since it resulted from his game tying kick against the Ravens last year.
