Week 4 QB projections • KC Stats
QB Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs
HT: 6-5, WT: 230, Born: 5-17-1982, College: USC, Drafted: Round 7
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2011 Projections
| G | CMP | ATT | PYD | Y/A | PTD | INT | RSH | YD | Y/R | TD | FPT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Dodds | 14 | 248 | 440 | 2794 | 6.3 | 19 | 13 | 31 | 102 | 3.3 | 1 | 225 |
| Bob Henry | 15 | 283 | 485 | 3385 | 7.0 | 23 | 12 | 35 | 125 | 3.6 | 0 | 273 |
| Jason Wood | 15 | 260 | 460 | 3000 | 6.5 | 19 | 16 | 30 | 90 | 3.0 | 1 | 228 |
Average draft position
Current as of September 6th. [Full ADP list]
Overall: B Pettigrew (121), M Crabtree (122), Matt Cassel (123), J Ford (124), M Sanchez (125)Position: K Kolb (107-QB16), J Cutler (110-QB17), Matt Cassel (123 - QB18), M Sanchez (125-QB19), K Orton (132-QB20)
Click here for a comparison of these players.
PPR Average draft position
Current as of September 6th. [Full PPR ADP list]
Overall: N Burleson (126), Matt Cassel (127), G Olsen (129)Position: K Kolb (110-QB16), J Cutler (111-QB17), Matt Cassel (127 - QB18), K Orton (131-QB19), M Sanchez (134-QB20)
Click here for a comparison of these players.
Click here to go to the Matt Cassel spotlight, our staff's most detailed analysis.
Best Case
Playing in the most run-heavy offense in the league, and with limited weapons in the passing game, Matt Cassel finished as the #13 fantasy QB last season, making him a very strong QB2 (really, a borderline QB1). The Chiefs have added rookie Jonathan Baldwin and free-agent acquisition Steve Breaston to the WR corps this season; and while the offense will remain run-heavy, it should not be quite as lopsided as it was last season. With his improved weapons, Cassel could become a solid fantasy QB1 -- a reliable starter week in and week out.
Worst Case
The Chiefs had one of the league's easier schedules last season, and Cassel also benefited from a freakishly good stretch of games by Dwayne Bowe in the middle of the season. A tougher schedule in 2011, a return to earth by Bowe, and the Chiefs' run-oriented offense could serve to present significantly fewer scoring opportunities for Cassel this season. He should be a worthwhile fantasy QB2 in any event, but there could be numerous weeks during which he'll put up complete duds.
Outlook
Cassel is not an exciting pick, and will therefore be available late in most drafts. If he plays about as well as he did last year, he will be a value pick on draft day. If he continues to improve, he could be a substantial bargain. There is plenty of downside risk, to be sure, but given his average draft position, the risk is likely outweighed by his potential value.
Relevant Articles
Message board spotlight thread - July 15thMatt Cassel Spotlight - July 15th
Why he is undervalued
according to one of our writers (based on an ADP > 250 on Aug 17 --- go here for the complete article)Mark Wimer - The Chiefs' 25-0 drubbing at the hand of Tampa Bay in the first preseason game and the offseason departure of ex-OC Charlie Weis have a lot of fantasy owners down on Matt Cassel. However, a lot of good things have been happening on the surrounding cast this preseason. The team added a proficient WR #2 in Steve Breaston, and RB/WR tweener Dexter McCluster is finally healthy after struggling with a high ankle sprain last year. They drafted an exciting talent in WR Jonathan Baldwin - and lets' not forget the proficient pass-catchers the team already boasted in Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles. Cassel has a lot of weapons at his disposal and is coming off a 14th-ranked finish during 2010 in which he tossed for 3,116 yards, 27 TDs and just seven interceptions. The potential for a much better season awaits Cassel during 2011.
Why he is overvalued
according to two of our writers (based on an ADP > 250 on Aug 17 --- go here for the complete article)Jeff Tefertiller - Cassel is a reach for any fantasy owner relying on the Chief passer. A pick in the tenth round is still too high for a player who played out of his mind and still did not finish as a fantasy QB1. He loses Charlie Weis leading the offense this season. Let's remember that Kansas City is a running team and the Chiefs will not want to rely on Cassel's arm to win games.
Jason Wood - Matt Cassel's 2010 season SCREAMS anomaly. His 6.0% TD rate and 1.6% interception rate were not only way out of whack with his own historical rates, but they are out of whack with league norms -- even the best NFL QBs don't sustain those levels year to year. The three main reasons I'm steering far clear of Cassel are:- Charlie Weis was one and done -- Weis came, the Chiefs flourished, and now he's gone again. Bill Muir will not replicate what Weis accomplished.
- The schedule last year was historically easy -- The Chiefs' 2010 schedule was obscenely easy. Their opponents were dead last with a 41% winning percentage, one of the lowest rates we've seen in years.
- The Chiefs are a running team -- Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones and now Le'Ron McClain are a heck of a triumvirate, with Charles being elite. The Chiefs don't want to throw much.
Latest News
Chiefs | Another OC for Matt Cassel (Tue Feb 7, 08:16 AM) - For Kansas City Chiefs QB Matt Cassel, the addition of Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator means he will have his sixth different offensive coordinator in the last five seasons. Our View: Cassel has not lived up to expectations in Kansas City since coming over in a trade a few years ago. We'll see if Daboll's system can help Cassel play better. He had the best years of his career in New England in a similar system.link to story Chiefs | OC has worked with Matt Cassel before (Sat Feb 4, 01:05 PM) - Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has worked with QB Matt Cassel when both were with the New England Patriots. Our View: Cassel had his best seasons as a pro in a system similar to what Daboll will install with the Chiefs. He'll have competition for the starting job in training camp as the Chiefs need him to play up to his potential in order to take the next step.
link to story Chiefs | Matt Cassel not assured of starting QB job (Fri Feb 3, 08:58 AM) - Kansas City Chiefs head coach Romeo Crennel and general manager Scott Pioli emphasized Thursday, Feb. 2, the need to bring in competition for QB Matt Cassel at starting quarterback. 'What happens in free agency remains to be seen,' Crennel said. 'I know competition makes everybody better, and we'll just have to see what kind of competition we're going to have at the quarterback position.' Pioli added the team could re-sign impending free-agent QB Kyle Orton. Our View: Cassel hasn't earned the right to be the uncontested starter for the Chiefs. We could see them re-signing Orton and have a competition in training camp for the #1 job.
link to story
2011 Schedule
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | at Detroit Lions |
| 3 | at San Diego Chargers |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 5 | at Indianapolis Colts |
| Bye week | |
| 7 | at Oakland Raiders |
| 8 | San Diego Chargers |
| 9 | Miami Dolphins |
| 10 | Denver Broncos |
| 11 | at New England Patriots |
| 12 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 13 | at Chicago Bears |
| 14 | at New York Jets |
| 15 | Green Bay Packers |
| 16 | Oakland Raiders |
| 17 | at Denver Broncos |
2011 Game Summaries
Week 1 - Checking twitter and online articles, Cassel is really getting thrown under the bus for this one, though much of the blame also seems to be focused on the loss of Charlie Weis. Cassel certainly wasn't very good in this game, but much of it was not his fault. One the opening kickoff, Dexter McCluster lost a fumble. Then again in the first half, Jamaal Charles lost a fumble as well. Throw in one rather ugly Cassel INT, and it was a disaster on offense for the entire team. Cassel was also was completely unable to even get the "garbage time points" that so many QB's rack up in the 2nd half of blowouts. The loss of Moeaki can't be blamed, as Cassel did hit his replacement Pope a few times. Much of the problem lied in the fact that the Chiefs just didn't get the ball much in the first half, and the game became a blowout quickly. As a result, the Chiefs had only 18 rushes, as opposed to 36 passes. Last year, they were the number 1 rushing team in the league, and Cassel really needs that threat of a running game to succeed. The Buffalo defensive line also manhandled KC up front, and had Cassel under heavy pressure much of the game. Cassel also threw a nice ball to Leonard Pope in the endzone early in the game, and Pope made a great catch, though he wasn't able to retain possession. That TD could have really helped the Chiefs as well. While Cassel is definitely not a star QB, he's not as bad as he looked today, or as bad as some are saying, and remains a solid backup QB in certain matchups.
Week 2 - If you want a quick summary this writer says you need to find an alternate back up QB for your roster. However that said, the reality is Cassel was done a disservice by his teammates and also his head coach Todd Haley. The Chiefs opened with 6 straight runs on the 1st drive culminating with a field goal. The Chiefs racked up 110 yards rushing in the 1st half alone against the Lions when the game was still competitive. Once they established the run they started to throw the ball some but Cassel was hosed by his wide receivers on his 1st two interceptions. Bowe clearly let a ball slip through his hands and into the secondary. Urban was targeted and while the throw was not perfect, many wide receivers in the league make that catch. Cassel was delivering the ball where it needed to be but his receivers were not making plays. The stats prove this as outside of Dwayne Bowe the remaining receivers, tight ends, and running backs totaled up a paltry 32 yards in receiving which is awful. Cassel completed almost 66% of his passes but his receivers outside of Bowe cannot make plays. So the information you need to know is that Cassel probably is a low end QB2 or perhaps even a QB3 at this stage, but also in dynasty you might look at him as a potential buy low because things have to get better eventually. That could mean a coaching change, possibly opening up the playbook since they are likely to lose a lot of games, or just the fact that maybe his receivers will hang on to the ball more. This game was hard to gauge Cassel's performance because they didn't ask him to do a whole lot early and when they did his supporting cast let him down until the game was out of reach. His OLine ws decent at run blocking but he was under a lot of pressure from the Lions pass rush most of the day. Branden Albert also had to leave the game with an injury but the initial prognosis is he will be OK.
Week 3 - It was a tale of two halves for Cassel, as just about everything went wrong in the first half and everything went right in the second. Well, almost everything. Early on, Kansas City could get almost nothing going. The Chargers weren't even really applying a ton of pressure; it's just that the Chiefs receivers couldn't get open and there was simply no rhythm or flow to the offense. It was all dink and dunk passes for limited yardage, and by the end of the first half the Chiefs had run 18 plays for a total of 34 yards. No play had gone for more than four yards, and the team did not pick up a single offensive first down. They finally picked up their initial first down two minutes into the third quarter and Cassel finally was able to direct a scoring drive. He made a perfect pass with nice touch to WR Dwayne Bowe down to the four yard line, placing it right over Bowe's shoulder and out of reach of the defender. Soon after, he again connected with Bowe for Kansas City's first score of the game. It was a fade pattern to the sideline in the end zone, and was a product of some superhuman footwork by Bowe to keep his feet inbounds. On the next possession, they controlled the ball for over nine minutes and ran a whopping 18 plays -- but Cassel went just 2-3 for nine yards. Even when faced with third down and long situations, coach Todd Haley elected to run the ball rather than let Cassel throw it (the situations were 3rd and 10, 3rd and 6, and 3rd and 11). When the Chiefs finally got the ball back near the middle of the fourth quarter, they trailed by two scores and needed a quick strike. Despite Haley's reluctance to trust him on the last possession, Cassel answered the call in driving the Chiefs 80 yards in three minutes, culminating with a short touchdown strike to TE Leonard Pope. The key plays on the drive were two perfect third down completions to Dwayne Bowe to keep the drive alive. And the big play to put them in scoring range was a perfectly-thrown deep ball to WR Steve Breaston down to the one yard line. Breaston rolled out of bounds as he caught it, just before he was able to get into the end zone. But Cassel found Pope on the very next play for the score. Due to some awful clock management by San Diego, the Chiefs had the ball with 1:26 left and a chance to tie or win the game. After finding Pope down the seam for a big gain, Cassel made by far his worst pass of the afternoon. He looked left to set up a screen pass, but didn't see San Diego S Eric Weddle buried in the seam. The ball was essentially thrown in Weddle's lap for the game-clinching interception. Cassel's stats will look decent and he did make several very nice passes, but on the whole he was ineffective. The Chargers really shot themselves in the foot on several occasions, helping Cassel's stat line look a whole lot better than it probably should have.
Week 4 - The first half of this game looked much like the Cassel we've seen in 2011. Short dump offs were the norm with overthrown balls over the middle occasionally mixed in. The few times he threw across the middle, you could hear an audible gasp from the crowd, as the ball fluttered through the secondary. As it was, he was extremely fortunate to not have an interception in the first half and made two good throws. The first was a quick slant to Dwayne Bowe that was timed and thrown very well. The second was a post to Steve Breaston, Cassel's bravest and most impressive throw of the half. While he was occasionally under pressure, Cassel's main intention in the first half was not to lose the game and he didn't. After a three and out to start the second half, Cassel seemed to loosen up a little and led the team to two more field goals. He spread the ball around nicely between Bowe and Breaston during this period with Breaston saving him an interception on a ball in the end zone. Had the ball been thrown to Breaston's back shoulder it probably would have been a touchdown. The highlight of Cassel's day, and the difference in the game, came on the Chiefs' first drive in the second half. As Bowe ran wide open down the left sideline, Cassel threw a bomb in his direction. He put a little too much air under it and Bowe had to stop to catch the ball, but he was so open it didn't matter. Bowe then made a great play to get into the end zone and give Cassel his only touchdown of the day.