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DE Derrick Burgess, Oakland Raiders

HT: 6-2, WT: 266, Born: 8-12-1978, College: Mississippi, Drafted: Round 3

2008 Projections

Best Case

Burgess spent 4 injury plagued seasons with the Eagles before hitting his stride in Oakland. He led the league in sack with 16 and added 52 solo stops to finish among the fantasy game's top 5 fantasy DL in '05. In '06 his numbers slipped a little but Burgess was still able to repeat double digit sacks (11.5) and again posted 40+ solo stops. Burgess was banged up early in '07 and got off to a slow start due to missing a couple of games with a calf injury. Once he got it going he managed 8 sacks over the final 10 games and was a hot commodity down the stretch. The Raiders poor defensive showing in '07 undoubtedly contributed to Burgess's production slide. They have a lot of quality players in place and should rebound this season. A healthy Tommy Kelly will be a huge plus for Burgess. The upside is certainly present and Burgess has the potential to once again reach 45+ tackles and 12 or more sacks. 

Worst Case

The biggest concern with Burgess is that both his tackle and sack production has slip in each of the past two seasons. Much of that slide can be attributed to a lack of supporting cast. While Oakland has amassed a good deal of talent in the back 7, they have remained very short on pass rush threats. Tommy Kelly moved to DE last season but was injured before he could hit his stride. Rush specialist Chris Clemons tied Burgess for the team lead with 8 sacks but bolted to the Eagles via free agency. It's hard to judge which direction the Oakland defense is heading at this point but even if they don't show much improvement over last season, a healthy Burgess should reach 40 solo tackles and push double digits in sacks. 

Outlook

There is enough risk with Burgess to keep him out of the top 10 DL on draft day but there is enough potential to keep him close to it. He was very hot down the stretch in '07 even with the Raiders out of contention and struggling. He's also in a contract year which always seems to bring out the best in players. The Oakland defense wasn't as bad as they looked last season and should rebound. A healthy Tommy Kelly will make a difference as well. Burgess has the ability to breach the top 5 for the second time in his career and barring injury is a safe bet to reach double digit sacks and 40+ solo tackles. Draft him with confidence as your #2 DL but try to land a solid #3 in case of injury.

Writeups last modified: 2008-06-02 14:45:44