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PK Josh Brown, St. Louis Rams
HT: 6-0, WT: 202, Born: 4-29-1979, College: Nebraska, Drafted: Round 7
2008 Projections
Best Case
Very shortly after Jeff Wilkins announced his retirement, Josh Brown showed no hesitation in bolting from Seattle during the early hours of free agency to division rival St. Louis. He discussed the switch from kicking outdoors in rainy Seattle to kicking inside the Edward Jones Dome, "That probably puts the biggest smile on my face out of this whole thing. It is going to be great being able to concentrate on kicking inside and not having to worry about Mother Nature that much. I can focus in on what I have to do rather than contend with her at the same time." Brown was a very solid kicker for the Seahawks since they drafted him in the seventh round back in 2003. He has the leg to hit long field goals, as evidenced the last three years by going 11 of 18 from 50+ yards. He has hit a 54+ yard field goal every year of his five years in the NFL. He missed only one of his 224 career PAT attempts. Brown's kickoffs were average his first two years, so he spent the recent off-seasons working to improve them. He averaged 63.3 yards with 13 touchbacks last year. In recent years, when the word "clutch" was mentioned relative to a kicker it was usually referring to Adam Vinatieri. In 2006 Brown earned the right to be called clutch. His 42 yard field goal on the final play of the game beat Detroit. His 54 yarder on the final play beat St. Louis. His 38 yarder with nine seconds remaining beat St. Louis in their second meeting of the year. His 50 yard field goal beat Denver with four seconds remaining.
Worst Case
Brown could see a significant reduction in scoring attempts this year. He's coming from a Seahawks' team that scored 127 points and ranked 6th in kicker scoring last year to a Rams' team that scored 97 points and ranked 26th in kicker scoring. Brown's accuracy has varied from year to year, increasing from 73.3% (22 of 30) in 2003 up to 92.0% (23 of 25) in 2004, dropping back down to 72.0% (18 of 75) in 2005, increasing to 80.6% (25 of 31) in 2006, and somewhat stabilizing at 82.4% (28 of 34) last year. His numbers could have been better in 2006 had not three field goal attempts been blocked. The difference has typically been field goal attempts from 40+ yards. As a rookie he connected on only 7 of 14 (50.0%). In his second year he was 7 of 8 (87.5%). In 2005 he was 9 of 15 (60.0%). In 2006 he was 10 of 14 (71.4%).
Outlook
Brown was a consistently solid fantasy scorer during his five years with Seattle, ranking 6th, 13th, 13th, 11th, and 9th. The Rams on the other hand have had a pattern of up and down kicker scoring over the past ten years, ranking 26th, 3rd, 7th, 26th, 1st, 24th, 1st, 12th, 5th, and 26th. Numerous factors led to last year's low scoring. The three primary reasons were injuries to the offensive line, more injuries along the offensive line, and injuries to the offensive line backups. If the line can remain healthy this year, it should significantly help the offense to provide scoring opportunities for Brown. This year the offense will be under the guidance of a new offensive coordinator, Al Saunders. He spent the past two years with Washington, who ranked 27th and 13th in kicker scoring during that time. Prior to that he was offensive coordinator for Kansas City. He inherited a team that ranked 23rd in kicker scoring the year before he arrived, and then ranked in the top fifteen all five years he was there. What does all this add up to for Brown this year? He should score less than he did last year with Seattle, but more than Wilkins did last year.
