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QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

HT: 6-1, WT: 220, Born: 1-15-1979, College: Purdue, Drafted: Round 2

2008 Projections

Best Case

Brees is on a roll since arriving in New Orleans, throwing for more than 4400 yards in each of his first two seasons, with 4428 yards, 28 TDs and 18 interceptions last year. He's entering his third year in a Saints' offense that is loaded with weapons, and has a great rapport with quality young receivers Marques Colston and Devery Henderson, with steady veteran David Patten to mentor the younger guys. Top TE Eric Johnson is entering his 2nd year in the system and should be ready to roll from day one this year. Reggie Bush is an outstanding receiver out of the backfield. There is no reason to expect Brees to slow down this year - Brees has a legitimate shot to throw for more than 30 TDs in this offense, and should easily surpass 4000 yards passing again this season, making him a virtual lock for top-5 fantasy QB status.

Worst Case

The New Orleans offense struggled early in the season last year (Brees had 1 TD and 9 interceptions to his credit during the first 4 games) - if the wheels fall off and the engine drops out of the offense again this year, the team could go in the tank permanently. The margin for error at the NFL is very small, as the Saints demonstrated early on last year - a nightmare season could be just around the corner if key injuries gut the wide receiving corps or if the offensive line falls apart (leaving Brees to run for his life).

Outlook

Brees showed his resiliency last year after a nightmare first quarter - we think he'll be just fine this year and produce another elite fantasy performance for his fantasy owners. He hasn't missed a game in 3 seasons - he is one of the most dependable fantasy QBs in the league. It would be no surprise to see him post numbers similar to 2006 and 2007 again this season.

2007 Game Summaries

Week 1 - Brees had a tough game as he and Saints offense struggled to sustain drives and put points on the board. Brees only led the offense to three points. He was ten for 14 in the first half, but only had 53 yards passing. The Colts pass defense simply would not give Brees or his receivers anything deep and he was forced to hit receivers for short, underneath passes.

Things did not get better Brees in the second half as the Colts built a big lead and Indianapolis unleashed an effective pass rush. He only had 75 yards passing after three quarters as the Colts pulled out to a big lead. He added three turnovers in the second half as he had two interceptions and a lost fumble. He did add 117 yards passing in the fourth quarter while the game was out of reach. Brees didn't have a pass over 13 yards until he hooked up WR Devery Henderson for 23 yards with 38 seconds left in the game.

Week 2 - Brees does not look like the same quarterback he was last year, at least through the first two weeks of the season. His final numbers weren't terrible, but his inabilities to convert on third downs early in the game or come up with any big plays downfield were a big part of the problem. Brees totaled 260 yards on 26 of 44 passing that included a four yard touchdown to WR Marques Colston. However, he also had a costly interception that set up a Tampa Bay score and was not able to get into rhythm against an aggressive Tampa Bay defense.

Week 3 - Brees started slowly and was not able to muster a first down until the second quarter. He hurried his throws at times, but he was sacked only once. Going into the fourth quarter, he was actually having an okay game, and the Saints were trailing by only three points. In fact, it seemed as though he was getting a little rhythm and gaining confidence. But on the last play of the third quarter, Brees scrambled for a first down and took a hard shot to the head, and he completely unraveled after that. On the very next play, he was sacked and fumbled the ball away, and thereafter he was shaky and seemed to lack confidence. Perhaps Brees was more affected by the blow to the head then he let on--who knows. Whatever the case, his fourth quarter was a complete disaster, which included three INT's, one of which was returned for a TD. Surprisingly, Brees' favorite target in this game was WR Lance Moore, though he frequently looked for Marques Colston as well.

Week 5 - Brees began the game by completing eight of his first ten passes; the only incompletions were on deep passes, one of which was intercepted. Brees threw for 252 yards, but that number could easily have been higher if the Saint receivers had managed to hang on to his throws. The Saints had two passing touchdowns taken off the board when they were called for an illegal formation penalty on the first one and when the officials ruled that the player went out of bounds at the two yard line. The passing game seemed to be most effective when Brees targeted the running backs on screen passes or receivers on short passes.

Week 6 - Brees had a very strong game and he needed one to recover from his poor performance in the Saints first four games of 2007. He hit eight different receivers for catches, but his favorites were wide receiver David Patten and running back Reggie Bush. Brees played flawless football. He didn't turn the ball over and he made good decisions with the ball throughout the game. Brees threw a touchdown pass to both tight end Eric Johnson and wide receiver Marques Colston.

Week 7 - Brees connected on 65% of his passes for an average of 6.4 yards per attempt. The interception by Brees occurred near the end of the second quarter on a fourth and two play where he tried forcing the ball on a play where could have easily run for the first down. He still doesn't look like the player from 2006 but he did enough to help his team win.

Week 8 - Brees made it look easy all day long, as he passed at will to whomever he wanted, wherever he wanted. He found ten different receivers, went 31 for 39 on pass attempts, and threw for four touchdowns. One has to remember the 49ers are not a good defense, but he seems to have put his early season woes behind him.

Week 9 - Brees was superb. He executed the game plan very well, and made excellent decisions in where to throw the ball and when. He threw all the passes asked of him easily and accurately for the most part, and was clearly in command of the offense. Thanks to his quick decision-making, he was able to get rid of the ball before the Jaguars' pass rushers could get to him, and usually in the intermediate distance range, not just shorter passes. Brees usually threw the ball where his receivers had the advantage, and as such they were able to gain yards after securing the ball many times. The only significant mistake Brees made was losing a fumble in the second quarter. However, in keeping with the day he and his teammates had, that lost possession was not converted into points for the Jaguars.

Week 10 - Brees was not good early on this game. He threw two first half interceptions under pressure. The second pick was a wobbly pass which was grabbed by LB Pisa Tinoisamoa . Both first half interceptions led to scores for the Rams' offense. Brees was under pressure for most of the game. The protection schemes just did not work for the Saints as the Rams brought more pressure than they could handle. He was forced to throw off his back foot often and simply had no time to find his receivers early on.

After the Rams jumped out to a huge lead, they eased up on defense and Brees was able to start complete passes and finding his receivers. Brees ended the game with nice looking numbers but for the first three quarters of the game Brees and the Saints were unable to handle the Rams surprisingly aggressive defense.

Week 11 - Brees was fairly sharp in the first half and seemed determined to not let the inadvertent interception prevent him from leading his team to scores, but was ultimately undone by more turnovers and an inability to generate many big plays during the second half. He was able to move the ball well in the first half, involving a variety of receivers and making good decisions as to who to throw to. However the Saints were unable to generate an effective running game, which made it more difficult for Brees in the second half. As a result he utilized short passes almost exclusively in the second half, hoping his receivers would break free for significant yards after the reception, but was unsuccessful. Brees threw the vast majority of his passes in the second half to Marques Colston and Reggie Bush.

Week 12 - Drew Brees went 24 of 36 for 260 yards. He threw three touchdown passes and also ran one in from eight yards out. He spread the wealth around hitting Moore, Miller and Colston for touchdowns. With the Panthers down just four points at the half, Brees took over the game in the second half. He put together three touchdown drives in the third quarter to put the Saints ahead, 31-6. Brees was intercepted once but it did not hurt the Saints as they forced a turnover on downs on the Panthers next possession.

Week 13 - Drew Brees was able to make a few big plays in the passing game, but they were too few and far between. Brees connected on touchdown passes with WR Devery Henderson from 45 yards out and WR Terrance Copper from four yards out. He also hit WR Marques Colston on a 40 yard pass play, but aside from that and the 45 yard touchdown to Henderson, Brees accounted for just 94 yards on his 15 other completions for just over six yards per completion. He did not have any turnovers, but was sacked three times.

Week 14 - Brees had a great game Monday night against the Falcons. Brees picked apart the defense with many very difficult throws into good coverage. He managed to find Marques Colston for two touchdowns and David Patten for one. He also was able to improvise a couple of times against the Falcons pass rush to buy more time.

Week 15 - Brees had a great game going 26 for 30 for 315 yards and two scores. He found Marques Colston for 18 yards and David Patten on a 33 yard strike in the first half. His passes were crisp and he completed them to seven different receivers. He led the Saints' offense on scoring drives of 81, 74, 55, 7 and 44 yards. He was not intercepted, but did fumble once but recovered it.

Week 16 - Drew Brees started the game by completing his first six passes, and ten of his first 13. His first completion was on a beautiful pass to Devery Henderson that put the Saints in excellent field position for their first score. That was the only time that he was able to connect on any type of deep pass play. He was forced to use short, quick passes on the sidelines along with screen plays due to the pressure being applied by the blitzing defense. On some instances he would have time to throw deep over the middle, but he was undone by dropped balls by his receivers. He did catch one pass on a ball that was batted directly back to him and he took off gaining eight yards.

Week 17 - Brees completed 58 percent of his passes for an average gain of 5.3 yards per attempt en route to a passer rating of 75.7. Brees was helped out by a three touchdown performance, but hurt by early interceptions as well as the departure of Marques Colston in the second half of this game. In a season which he lost Deuce McAllister for most of the season, and had Reggie Bush at partial strength for much of the season, Brees threw the ball with regularity, and as a result, completed more passes in a season than any other quarterback in history.