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RB Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts

HT: 6-0, WT: 205, Born: 5-3-1983, College: LSU, Drafted: Round 1, Pick 30

2009 Projections

Average draft position

Current as of June 29th. [Full ADP list]

Overall: K Moreno (48), C Ochocinco (49), Joseph Addai (50), A Gates (51), L Johnson (52)
Position: T Jones (44-RB22), K Moreno (48-RB23), Joseph Addai (50 - RB24), L Johnson (52-RB25), J Stewart (53-RB26)
Click here for a comparison of these players.

Best Case

Addai finished as the #5 fantasy RB in 2007 when he got about 63% of the touches from the Colts' RB position. Last year he missed time with injuries, but if he can return to his 2007 level of production, a Top 10 season is well within reason. The obvious obstacle is that he may not get 63% of the touches again now that first-round pick Donald Brown is in the mix. But if the Colts decide to work Brown into the rotation slowly, and if Addai performs well enough to make it hard to take him out of games, he could return to fantasy prominence.

Worst Case

While most casual observers believe that Addai will get a larger share of the workload than rookie Donald Brown, that view is not unanimous among well-informed analysts. Brown has a better size-speed combo than Addai, and if he outperforms Addai early, Brown could take over the lead role as early as midseason.

Outlook

Addai and Brown will most likely share the workload during the regular season, keeping each other fresh for the playoffs. While the Colts offense is expected to put up, once again, way more than its fair share of yards and points, it will need to be consistently solid to make Addai anything more than a fantasy backup.

Relevant Articles

Why he is overvalued

Jeff Haseley - Joseph Addai's YPC has taken a big dive in the last three year years going from 4.8 in 2006 to 4.1 in 2007 to 3.5 last year. He's fading and the Colts took notice with the drafting of rookie RB Donald Brown in the first round. They decided on Brown over Chris Wells, so they must've noticed something in him that meshes well with their offensive system. If Brown comes in and impresses right off the bat, expect Addai to get fewer and fewer carries as the year goes on. If that happens, he won't be a Top 20 RB, but a Top 40 RB.

Andy Hicks - After an excellent first two seasons with the Colts, the team demonstrated their trust in Joseph Addai by drafting Donald Brown with their 1st round pick this year. With the injury niggles of 2008 fresh in the Colts memory and his rapidly decreasing yards per carry it wouldn't surprise anyone if Brown saw more carries than Addai this season. Anyone willing to part with a high pick on Addai is taking a huge leap of faith.

Jeff Pasquino - The Colts' actions speak louder than their words, and no action is bigger than their drafting of another tailback in the first round in April. Donald Brown from UCONN joins Indianapolis and will at a bare minimum take the role of former Colt Dominic Rhodes. Addai was a disappointment last year and with both the offensive line coach and the offensive coordinator leaving the Colts may underperform across the board this year. Look for a Addai to share the workload and drop out of the Top 25 fantasy rushers for 2009.

Jeff Tefertiller - Addai is a player that is an enigma for fantasy owners. At this ADP (RB25), Joseph Addai is a tough player to draft as a borderline fantasy RB2/RB3. The Colts drafted Donald Brown in the first round of the NFL Draft. Brown should have a considerable role in the Colt offense, much more so than Rhodes had a year ago. Addai has struggled with stamina and injuries throughout his young career. Plus, he had offseason knee surgery, which is a concern. Owners taking him at this ADP are asking for trouble.

2009 Schedule

2008 Game Summaries

Week 1 - Addai averaged less than 3.7 yards on his 14 rushing attempts and only had one catch for three yards in the passing game. His long rush of 13 yards came midway through the first quarter and after that run, Addai would go on to pickup only 24 more yards on the ground. Early on in the fourth quarter, he was hit hard by LB Lance Briggs on a pass reception. Addai walked off the field with the training staff under his own power and it was later reported that he had suffered a head injury. Following the injury, he did not return to the game.

Week 2 - Joseph Addai did not have a very good day mainly due to poor blocking. He was meeting defenders in the backfield and there wasn't much room to run. Addai was run down on the outside by Minnesota LBs and DBs. He only had one run longer than three yards. His only TD was from inches out and he almost didn't get in. The review on that play was very close.

Week 3 - Addai ran very well when given the opportunities, and capitalized on his goal line opportunities with two touchdowns. He ran with excellent vision, making the right reads and accelerating quickly into the second level of Jacksonville's defense routinely. Given the limited number of offensive possessions the Colts had, Addai had an excellent game.

Week 5 - The Texans rush defense was able to keep Addai in check until late in the fourth quarter. Addai had little room to run as he had to escape from defenders who were able to penetrate into the backfield and take away his running lanes. When the Colts tried to run the ball to the outside, he had to contend with defenders who were able to string the play out and clog up the running lanes to effectively take away any type of cutback run. The Colts were able to spring one long run when it counted the most, on the last series. The Colts had the ball on the 20 yard line following Rosenfels' second fumble and Addai took the handoff on the first play and burst straight up the middle for 15 yards to give the Colts a first and goal from the five yard line and set up the winning score.

Week 6 - Addai's day ended almost before it began as he left the game due to injury early in the first quarter after only two carries for three yards. On the play where he was injured, it was not immediately apparent what the injury was, and the only indication he was hurt was the fact that he limped of the field and never returned to the game. Later the injury was revealed to be a hamstring issue.

Week 8 - Addai was out of this game because of the hamstring injury he is still nursing.

Week 9 - RB Joseph Addai returned from injury and looked fairly strong. He was able to gain yardage but failed to put together any long runs and did not have any carries for more than five yards.

Week 10 - Addai was limited all day. The Colts' running game has been poor all season, averaging a league low 70 yards a game. The team's trademark stretch play sweep was well defended by the Steelers' rush defense, Addai had multiple tacklers in his face, saw no real cutback lanes and could not make anyone miss. He had only a limited role in the passing game.

Week 11 - Joseph Addai saw a lot of work in the opening half, but had little to show for it as the Texans were able to shut down the outside running game. To compensate for the ineffectiveness of the running game, he became involved in the passing game as he saw six of his eight targets in the first half. As the second half opened the Colts made adjustments to open up the running lanes and Addai benefited by scoring touchdowns on the first two possessions. His first touchdown was on a route where Manning looked off the defensive backs and found him alone on the right side of the field and the defenders had no chance to get him before he made it to the end zone. His rushing touchdown, on the next series, was on a simple read play where he found a hole in the left side of the line and burst through it.

Week 12 - Addai's longest gain of the game came in the second quarter when on a third and one play he busted through the line, cut back against the grain, and picked up 23 yards. On the team's first drive of the second half, the running back got five consecutive touches (one rush and four receptions) that he turned into 20 yards. Despite the heavy work load early on in the drive, it was Dominic Rhodes who was in the game later on the series when the Colts moved inside the Chargers' ten yard line.

Week 13 - Addai was running the ball well in the first half, and continued to see some playing time in the second half -- but much of the playing time in the second half went to Dominic Rhodes. Addai was spinning off of hits and weaving through the defense, but he did fumble on his first carry of the day and the Colts may have been worried about his ball security once they got the lead.

Week 14 - Addai was used primarily in the first half. Later in the game he was rested. He had one 16 yard run called back, and saw the ball inside the five, once.

Week 15 - Addai was inactive for this game with a shoulder injury.

Week 17 - Addai, like Manning, was only in the game for the team's first drive. But he, like Manning, was a key factor in making sure this drive got the Colts on the board and was on the receiving end of the 55 yard TD pass to cap it off.

Week 18 - Addai got 16 carries in the game, but only two of any significance. He had an 11 yard run on a third down and long play, and he took one up the middle for a yard on a draw at the goal line. Aside from those two rushes, his other 14 carries totaled just 33 yards. Even with those two carries, he still averaged less than 2.8 yards per carry. And on his touchdown run, he didn't have to do much as the blocking was perfect. He had a chance to essentially end the game late in the fourth quarter, but came up short. The Colts needed just one first down to run out the clock, and a six yard rush by Addai on first down gave the Colts a second and four. But Addai was hit after just a two yard gain on second down, Peyton Manning was sacked on third down, and the Colts never threatened seriously again.